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How could Hitler have won WW2?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,810 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    There's an argument, but I'm not sure how strong it is. Hitler wasn't terribly interested developing atomic weapons; the German programme started late and was seriously under-resourced because Hitler gave it a low priority. So even if European Jewish physicists had remained in Europe and were available to the support the programme, he might not have made use of them.

    The bigger difference would have been on the other side; Teller, etc, would not have been available to the US atomic programme. But it would still probably have been a bigger, earlier and better-resourced programme than anything the Germans were doing.

    Uhh.. There's a lot of truth to the argument that the best physicists had fled (Fermi, Leo Szilard, Hans Bethe and of course Einstein.) And, Hitler's racial purity and surrounding himself with sycophants prevented Heisenberg et al. from ever receiving enough support to complete his heavy water experiments.

    I don't think the German program was all that low-priority; it was a tactical error to not fund it, and Germany wasted a lot of resources during WWII. Imagine a dirty bomb in the nosecone of a V2 or delivered by an early Nazi jet plane, terrifying.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Azza wrote: »
    ....
    If Hitler/Germany's sole ambition was to focus on and eliminate Great Britain they could of made good on those losses (as I pointed out they had huge numbers of aircraft and pilots available for the start of Barbarossa) ..

    As soon as Germany took the pressure off to allow it's airforce to recover, that also allows the RAF to recover.

    Look at German Fighter production in 1940 vs 1945

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_aircraft_production_during_World_War_II

    Very hard to kill production of aircraft. Allies tried and struggled with vast resources thrown at it. Germany tried in 1940 and failed. Britain had an extremely efficient production and repair system, network in place before the battle is Britain.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    beauf wrote: »
    I don't think that was ever a real possibility. The German's never managed to close the airfields. Dowling still had kept a lot of non experienced UK pilots and squadrons in reserve.

    The German intelligence was flawed as well. They expected the 15th September attack to be the day that a depleted RAF was finally finished off. The German pilots were expecting little resistance, instead the RAF put more planes in the air than any other day and gave the Luftwaffe a seriously bloody nose.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Goring had a habit of writing cheques he couldn't cover.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    Aegir wrote: »
    The German intelligence was flawed as well. They expected the 15th September attack to be the day that a depleted RAF was finally finished off. The German pilots were expecting little resistance, instead the RAF put more planes in the air than any other day and gave the Luftwaffe a seriously bloody nose.

    This would never have happened if Halifax made peace with Hitler after the fall of France. No Battle of Britain no Blitz and no patriotic rhetoric from Churchill. Instead a Quisling regime in Britain which a Vichy like military alliance with Nazi Germany in return for an unmolested British Empire to allow Germany get on the invasion of Russia. Even so Germany's victory in 1941 would be lucky just as their victory over France was lucky - the offensive in the Ardennes that broke through the Allies lines and led to the evacuation from Dunkirk was a bold gamble that just about paid off.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    For Germany to win they’d have had to take Russia over and take command of the Russian army. Then take it from there.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,812 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    This would never have happened if Halifax made peace with Hitler after the fall of France. No Battle of Britain no Blitz and no patriotic rhetoric from Churchill. Instead a Quisling regime in Britain which a Vichy like military alliance with Nazi Germany in return for an unmolested British Empire to allow Germany get on the invasion of Russia. Even so Germany's victory in 1941 would be lucky just as their victory over France was lucky - the offensive in the Ardennes that broke through the Allies lines and led to the evacuation from Dunkirk was a bold gamble that just about paid off.

    I'd imagine that even in that scenario as soon as the Germans started to struggle in Russia during the winter that the British and French would quickly rejoin the conflict and we'd end up with a Napoleonic style 2nd Coalition as neither could risk an overall German victory happening


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,688 ✭✭✭storker


    There is no possible scenario where Hitler would not have gone to war against the Allies or specifically avoided war with the Soviet Union but it was not inevitable that he would have lost.

    I'm not so sure about that. The allies were out-producing Germany hand over fist, not only in aircraft, shipping, tanks etc but they weren't forced to keep talented submarine captains and pilots in action for far too long, whereas the Allies could afford to rotate many more experienced people out of the line to help train up new recruits.

    Hitler could have given himself a better chance by:

    1. Winning the Battle of Britain and knocking the UK out of the war.
    2. Not wasting resources by bailing out the Italians when they came unstuck in the Balkans and North Africa
    3. Not invading Russia.
    4. Developing a strategic bomber AND producing it in large numbers.
    5. Not wasting good rolling stock transporting Jews to the east when army formations were crying out for resupply.
    6. Giving Doenitz more than a handful of U-Boats in 1939 instead of wasting resources building big, useless capital ships because they look cool.
    7. Refraining from dicking around with operational command and let the generals do their jobs. Adolf was probably the best general the Allies had.
    8. Winning over the inhabitants of occupied territories instead of brutalising and alienating them.
    9. Allowing German women to work in the factories instead of seeing them as Nazi-making machines and using half-starved, brutalised, utterly unmotivated slave labour instead.

    Ultimately, though, it still more than likely would have ended in defeat, although it would have taken longer. The German armed forces were built with short, sharp, victorious campaigns in mind. Once the quick victory wasn't achieved and the enemies started to gain strength, the jig was effectively up. The Luftwaffe never recovered from its losses in 1940 and their transport assets never recovered from the disastrous invasion of Crete in 1941, a chicken which came home to roost big time with the Stalingrad disaster. By the time Doenitz was receiving increasing numbers of U-Boats, the allies had the technological means to relegate them to nuisance value. The quality of the army started to decline as early as 1941 as casualties from Barbarossa ate into the pool of well-trained, experienced men. And so on...


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    For Germany to win they’d have had to take Russia over and take command of the Russian army. Then take it from there.

    Several Russian divisions actually served in the Wehrmacht led by the defector General Vlasov called the Russian Liberation Army. It was a Corps sized formation. Estonians Latvian Lithuanians Ukrainians and Cossacks served in other units including their own divisions of the Waffen SS with mostly German officers and NCOs. Those who didn't escape to the west in 1945 were liquidated. Vlasov tried to save his skin by supporting the Prague Uprising but was arrested and hanged.

    If the Germans had captured Moscow - I repeat the only real chance was Britain led by Halifax making peace after the Fall of France - they could have only done it by getting lucky and with heavy casualties but then were faced with the problem of holding their gains.

    Both lack of food and poor logistics but more importantly callous indifference to human life led to millions of Soviet prisoners perishing in Nazi captivity. All the same some of these men were spared and put to work as porters and other labour units in the Wehrmacht and also took part in anti partisan campaigns along with regular German troops and the Waffen SS.

    If Barbarossa had been successful in 1941 more pragmatism might have overcome ideological purity and larger numbers of Russians including many who actually hated Stalin might have been used to defend the borders of the Reich with utopian plans to exterminate them put on hold for the time being.

    The ultimate goal of Hitler being to establish an agrarian utopia in the East feeding the German industrial heartland in the West. Rival European powers would be left alone once they recognized Hitler as master of Europe if they kept out of Germany's plans in the East.
    Jews would all have to go and those Slavs left alive would serve new German settlements across European Russia where Aryans would go forth and multiply. This vast stud and breeding farm would be over seen by the SS.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,984 ✭✭✭Stovepipe


    . Britain had an extremely efficient production and repair system, network in place before the battle is Britain.[/QUOTE]

    Britain didn't until Beaverbrook took over and forced the various manufacturers to cooperate and build shadow factories and dispersed minor factories well North of the fighting. There was a huge amount of opposition at all levels of the industry until Churchill forced them to cooperate or be nationalised by force. Lots of little empires were shoved aside. a lot of noses were put out of joint but Beaverbrook had the ear of Churchill and events proved him right.....The Supermarine plant at Southampton was destroyed, to the point where the surviving machinery and jigs (some very vital ones were the only ones of their kind) were removed from the wreckage of the buildings and shipped North.Hurricane factories were also bombed and a lot of it's production was moved up near Birmingham.
    As for bombing grass airfields, the Germans were perfectly aware that you couldnt close grass airfields,as they operated from them, too and were being bombed nightly by RAF Blenheims but remained fully operational and they did order their fighter pilots to strafe enemy airfield as targets of opportunity, with a view to hitting fighters (or any other aircraft) and their support infrastructure on the ground. The RAF were critically short of tools and vehicles after escaping from France and were often unable to repair aircraft at unit level, which is why so many were sent to the Civil Repair Organisation in mid-1940, before the real attacks began. Also, foreign production in Canada and pilot training in Canada and the Empire made all the difference, as did the influx of European pilots. Britain was never going to run out of pilots, as such, but it did have to transfer Naval and Bomber Command pilots to Fighter Command as losses began to bite. Germany's overall pilot output was quite slow, by comparison, as it was still run on a peacetime schedule and even fighter production was slowed down and Hitler refused to have women in the factories until common sense prevailed and women entered the workforce later,but not on the same scale as the UK.


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  • Moderators Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Azza


    beauf wrote: »
    The stats suggest the Germans would have run out of pilots and aircraft first.

    Let's pretend they did that. How then do they defeat the Royal Navy with no Aircraft? Not going to happen in 1940 with the German Navy.

    Perhaps your right and I'm just repeating the traditional narrative that the RAF was close to defeat in the Battle of Britain but that narrative doesn't take account of the strength of of the Luftwaffe at that point in the battle.

    But a couple of things I will point out is that the German's did not commit the entirety of the Luftwaffe to the Battle of Britain.

    The other thing is as I already said the Luftwaffe had a considerable air strength available for Barbarossa.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luftwaffe_serviceable_aircraft_strengths_(1940%E2%80%9345)

    I'd be rather surprised if the Luftwaffe was in the same or worse shape than the RAF was by the time they switched over to city bombing in the Battle of Britain that they would have been able to rebuild and train up new air crews to the force it had available for Barbarossa.

    As for defeating the Royal Navy without an air force as I'll ready said in a previous post I don't think the German's could of prevented the Royal Navy from destroying the invasion fleet after it sailed across the channel even with the assistance of the Luftwaffe.


  • Moderators Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Azza


    storker wrote: »
    I'm not so sure about that. The allies were out-producing Germany hand over fist, not only in aircraft, shipping, tanks etc but they weren't forced to keep talented submarine captains and pilots in action for far too long, whereas the Allies could afford to rotate many more experienced people out of the line to help train up new recruits.

    Hitler could have given himself a better chance by:

    1. Winning the Battle of Britain and knocking the UK out of the war.
    2. Not wasting resources by bailing out the Italians when they came unstuck in the Balkans and North Africa
    3. Not invading Russia.
    4. Developing a strategic bomber AND producing it in large numbers.
    5. Not wasting good rolling stock transporting Jews to the east when army formations were crying out for resupply.
    6. Giving Doenitz more than a handful of U-Boats in 1939 instead of wasting resources building big, useless capital ships because they look cool.
    7. Refraining from dicking around with operational command and let the generals do their jobs. Adolf was probably the best general the Allies had.
    8. Winning over the inhabitants of occupied territories instead of brutalising and alienating them.
    9. Allowing German women to work in the factories instead of seeing them as Nazi-making machines and using half-starved, brutalised, utterly unmotivated slave labour instead.

    Ultimately, though, it still more than likely would have ended in defeat, although it would have taken longer. The German armed forces were built with short, sharp, victorious campaigns in mind. Once the quick victory wasn't achieved and the enemies started to gain strength, the jig was effectively up. The Luftwaffe never recovered from its losses in 1940 and their transport assets never recovered from the disastrous invasion of Crete in 1941, a chicken which came home to roost big time with the Stalingrad disaster. By the time Doenitz was receiving increasing numbers of U-Boats, the allies had the technological means to relegate them to nuisance value. The quality of the army started to decline as early as 1941 as casualties from Barbarossa ate into the pool of well-trained, experienced men. And so on...

    1. Winning the Battle of Britain does not knock Great Britain out of the war.
    2. With out a doubt the war in North Africa was a huge resource drain the German's could not afford. However I don't think the German's could of risked allowing the British to have a presence in Greece. They would of been in range to bomb the Romanian oil fields which where absolutely critical to the German war effort.
    3. Invading Russia was always Hitlers primary goal. If he hadn't harbored that intention their may have been no war in the first place.
    4. Strategic bombers could have helped in the war with the Soviet Union but if you build large quantities of them it comes at the expense of something else, most likely the medium range bombers. They would of required more resources to produce and thus there would of been less of them. These strategic bombers would have vulnerable on their own as the German's wouldn't have had long range fighters to escort them all the way to their targets and back again. Also by focusing on strategic bombing the Luftwaffe's ability to provide tactical air support would decline as well.
    5. I don't believe this really a factor, more to do with limited capacity of the railway lines and also the fact that Russia is so vast that many areas in Russia are not close to railway lines and at that point supplies have to move from their closest railway line stop to their end location via truck which requires fuel which they in turned lacked.
    6. A larger U-Boat fleet earlier might have helped knock Britain out of the war but the decision to build a surface fleet to challenge the Royal Navy come about more from decisions made by the German navy than by Hitler. Plan-Z was not due to to be complete until 1948, which shows the German's did not intend to go to war with Britain when they did.
    7. Hitler got many decision wrong, but he's become the fall guy for everything that went wrong in war for Germany. his generals made many bad decisions as well and blame should be shared equally among them.
    8 & 9. This was down to Nazi ideology. It was pretty much Hitlers goal to wipe out those races he considered inferior. Had he been smarter about it he could of temporarily treated these people relatively fairly until he was assured of victory and then turned on them. But Hitler genuinely believed his own crap so to speak and saw these race's as sub human and could not bring himself to treat them well even for a short period of time let alone allow himself to think that he might need their active assistance.

    Agree with you on German war effort been geared around short, sharp military campaigns.

    You can see in my previous post a link to German aircraft numbers. The German's more than recovered their air transport capacity after Crete. Of course without Crete they would have more transport aircraft available to supply the besieged troops at Stalingrad but they still wouldn't of able to come close to properly resupplying them.

    Agree with the rest of your post.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Azza wrote: »
    Perhaps your right and I'm just repeating the traditional narrative that the RAF was close to defeat in the Battle of Britain but that narrative doesn't take account of the strength of of the Luftwaffe at that point in the battle.

    But a couple of things I will point out is that the German's did not commit the entirety of the Luftwaffe to the Battle of Britain.

    The other thing is as I already said the Luftwaffe had a considerable air strength available for Barbarossa.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luftwaffe_serviceable_aircraft_strengths_(1940%E2%80%9345)

    I'd be rather surprised if the Luftwaffe was in the same or worse shape than the RAF was by the time they switched over to city bombing in the Battle of Britain that they would have been able to rebuild and train up new air crews to the force it had available for Barbarossa.

    As for defeating the Royal Navy without an air force as I'll ready said in a previous post I don't think the German's could of prevented the Royal Navy from destroying the invasion fleet after it sailed across the channel even with the assistance of the Luftwaffe.

    You don't mention that Britain also had reserves in the North. But it was also fighting all over the empire and rest of the world's also. They always kept reserves back.

    Even after withdrawal of their most vulnerable types Germany couldn't sustain daylight bombing over the UK they were getting slaughtered, same as RAF light and medium bombers did over Europe. Restricting German fighters as close escorts increased their losses also.

    Battle of Britain was a hard fought battle. RAF was never on its last legs though but was weakened for a short period. Even if there is an opinion that Germany wasn't really trying. Fact is they commited vast resources to it and were losing a battle of attrition quite badly.

    The lessons learnt of daylight raids being unsustainable without heavy close fighter escort would repeated by the Americans.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Open to correction on this..

    As Germany and Russians captured after both in advance in retreat. They had to rebuild the train lines as they used a different gauge and neither would switch to the others. Always thought that was bizarre.

    Another issue was the Germany army moved mainly by horse. Supplies, troops, ammunition even artillery. They were the biggest users of horses in WW2. Feeding and keeping horses alive in Russia was some challenge. In comparison the Russians were mostly motorised afaik.

    It's curious why WWI and WW2 retain so much interest. Even after all this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭To Alcohol


    Should have kept the Russians on side until they could be nuked and instead smashed the UK thus denying the Yanks a platform to attack from. Game over baby, we're all talkin German.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,491 ✭✭✭Harika


    To Alcohol wrote: »
    Should have kept the Russians on side until they could be nuked and instead smashed the UK thus denying the Yanks a platform to attack from. Game over baby, we're all talkin German.

    Russia was going to strike, there is a controversy if already 1941. As Stalin needed time to rebuild the military after the purges and the catastrophic win over Finland in the winter war.
    Nukes are overrated, two barely convinced the Japanese to surrender and it would have taken years to get a significant amount of bombs available.
    Russia lost 27 million people, a bomb that kills 100000 is barely a blink.


  • Moderators Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Azza


    beauf wrote: »
    You don't mention that Britain also had reserves in the North. But it was also fighting all over the empire and rest of the world's also. They always kept reserves back.

    Even after withdrawal of their most vulnerable types Germany couldn't sustain daylight bombing over the UK they were getting slaughtered, same as RAF light and medium bombers did over Europe. Restricting German fighters as close escorts increased their losses also.

    Battle of Britain was a hard fought battle. RAF was never on its last legs though but was weakened for a short period. Even if there is an opinion that Germany wasn't really trying. Fact is they commited vast resources to it and were losing a battle of attrition quite badly.

    The lessons learnt of daylight raids being unsustainable without heavy close fighter escort would repeated by the Americans.

    Again I'm kinda going on the traditional narrative that the RAF was a couple of weeks from defeat, and that include its reserve fighters based in the Britain. The fighter aircraft in other theaters where not readily available to the British if things where going badly for them at home. Fighter aircraft in North Africa did not have the range to fly back to the home island nor could they have landed on aircraft carriers and got back that way. They would have to be shipped back Britain a process that would of taken weeks and place that at risk of U-Boat attack. The problem is magnified with the more distant parts of the empire. The Luftwaffe on the other hand could of redeployed its reserve strength more easily.

    Agree that restricting fighters to close range escorts was a major tactical mistake on the German part.

    Again maybe the British won the Battle of Britain by a larger margin than I thought and for sure the Luftwaffe was coming off second best in terms of actual numbers of planes shot down. But I'm sure I'd agree with the assessment that the Luftwaffe was going run out of pilots and planes first. Some historians seem to believe the effect loss ratio between both sides was pretty even when compared against the total strength of both sides.


  • Moderators Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Azza


    beauf wrote: »
    Open to correction on this..

    As Germany and Russians captured after both in advance in retreat. They had to rebuild the train lines as they used a different gauge and neither would switch to the others. Always thought that was bizarre.

    Another issue was the Germany army moved mainly by horse. Supplies, troops, ammunition even artillery. They were the biggest users of horses in WW2. Feeding and keeping horses alive in Russia was some challenge. In comparison the Russians were mostly motorised afaik.

    It's curious why WWI and WW2 retain so much interest. Even after all this time.

    This is true, Russia used a different rail way gauge than what was used in the rest of Europe and it was easier to relay the tracks to suit the trains than to convert the trains to use the different gauge. I've heard this describe as a considerable but actually manageable undertaking.

    The German army mainly moved on foot actually but it did rely hugely on horses for supply, and yes the horses took horrendous losses in Russia. Many people with a passing interest and a superficial knowledge of World War II will often say German should of built more tanks and more planes but Germany simply didn't have the fuel to run them even if did build them.

    According to wikipedia, the Red Army actually used more horses than the German's did. I know the Russian's managed to motorize a higher % of its units than the German's ever did but I'm not sure if achieved over 50% motorization. I can't see any numbers for that online.

    World War I and II where arguably the most significant events in the 20th century and possible in history. They where the largest wars to ever have happened and occurred in the relatively recent past and are well documented (though gaps remain and new information is still coming to light). Don't think its any great surprise that people remain interested in them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,487 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    If Hitler, and all his mates, hadn’t been smoking crack he would have had a great chance to win the war


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  • Moderators Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Azza


    Harika wrote: »
    Russia was going to strike, there is a controversy if already 1941. As Stalin needed time to rebuild the military after the purges and the catastrophic win over Finland in the winter war.
    Nukes are overrated, two barely convinced the Japanese to surrender and it would have taken years to get a significant amount of bombs available.
    Russia lost 27 million people, a bomb that kills 100000 is barely a blink.

    The evidence that suggests the Russian's where about to pre-emptively strike the German's first in 1941 if given a little more time is extremely flimsy and considered not credible at this point. They might have intended to attack Germany eventually but for sure not in 1941.

    Not sure why To Alcohol brought up the idea of nuking Russia. Germany was well behind the USA in its atomic bomb development and it probably would of been the late 1940's at best before the German's had one.

    As for being overrated. That's debatable. Nuke's would be very effective at destroying the industrial capacity of a country. Nuking one or two German cites a month for 6 months and I don't see how the German's would have the means to stay in the fight.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Russians had spy's in the Manhattan project and the code breaking. So Stalin was well informed.

    Japan was well beaten before the atomic weapons were dropped. The atomic weapons were both a show of force for Japan and Russia.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,491 ✭✭✭Harika


    Azza wrote: »
    As for being overrated. That's debatable. Nuke's would be very effective at destroying the industrial capacity of a country. Nuking one or two German cites a month for 6 months and I don't see how the German's would have the means to stay in the fight.

    I think Japanese towns were in average 70% burned down, that's why the bomb didn't make the immediate response you would expect. German towns were bombed daily, barely resistance left, still no surrender in sight.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    beauf wrote: »
    Open to correction on this..

    As Germany and Russians captured after both in advance in retreat. They had to rebuild the train lines as they used a different gauge and neither would switch to the others. Always thought that was bizarre.

    Another issue was the Germany army moved mainly by horse. Supplies, troops, ammunition even artillery. They were the biggest users of horses in WW2. Feeding and keeping horses alive in Russia was some challenge. In comparison the Russians were mostly motorised afaik.

    It's curious why WWI and WW2 retain so much interest. Even after all this time.

    They were massive wars that cost the lives of millions of soldiers and civilians and redrew the map of the world. If they hadn't occurred or had ended with different victors our present would be vastly different


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,643 ✭✭✭victor8600


    Azza wrote: »
    The evidence that suggests the Russian's where about to preemptively strike the Germans first in 1941 if given a little more time is extremely flimsy and considered not credible at this point. ....

    Exactly. The war between the "imperialists" was forecast, and it was almost obvious to everyone in the world that a war will happen. Thus Stalin welcomed the war in the West between Germany and the French / UK alliance.

    Stalin probably thought - let them fight and surely the proletariat of these countries will rise in a revolution after years of war. Then the USSR would come to the rescue. That is why the Red Army was political commissar-heavy and any independently-minded military commanders were purged. The USSR was preparing for the offensive in the West, but the Red Army would be invited by local revolutionaries to help them set up socialist governments.


  • Moderators Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Azza


    beauf wrote: »
    Russians had spy's in the Manhattan project and the code breaking. So Stalin was well informed.

    Japan was well beaten before the atomic weapons were dropped. The atomic weapons were both a show of force for Japan and Russia.

    I think Japanese towns were in average 70% burned down, that's why the bomb didn't make the immediate response you would expect. German towns were bombed daily, barely resistance left, still no surrender in sight.

    I think Japan was beat the second they dropped the first bomb on Pearl Harbor, was only a question of time.

    Indeed German towns and cities where hit badly by regularly bombing raids but actually hitting specific targets was with accuracy on regular bombing raids was quite difficult to do. I think the devastation of a nuclear bomb would of been more effective at reducing industrial capability, radiation would have rendered rebuilding industrial production sites more difficult and I think been consistently hit month after month with nuclear weapons would probably have been pretty devastating to the morale of the German people.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    Azza wrote: »
    I think Japan was beat the second they dropped the first bomb on Pearl Harbor, was only a question of time.

    Indeed German towns and cities where hit badly by regularly bombing raids but actually hitting specific targets was with accuracy on regular bombing raids was quite difficult to do. I think the devastation of a nuclear bomb would of been more effective at reducing industrial capability, radiation would have rendered rebuilding industrial production sites more difficult and I think been consistently hit month after month with nuclear weapons would probably have been pretty devastating to the morale of the German people.


    I agree with you about Japan but the idea that it would have taken a number of nukes, month after month, on Germany to concentrate their minds on capitulation is not a runner. Hitler would have been removed and the country surrendered after one or two at the most. The Japanese population may have embraced suicidal beliefs but not Germany.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,984 ✭✭✭Stovepipe


    Russia had millions of horses and didn't really get decent motor transport until the arrival of Lend Lease trucks, such as the Studabaker and the GMC types. Their own Gaz trucks were rubbish, by any yardstick and the best way to tow any Russian gun was to hitch it to an American made truck. The Russian rail network was in very poor condition, even in peace time and actual transit speeds were very slow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Azza wrote: »
    I think Japan was beat the second they dropped the first bomb on Pearl Harbor, was only a question of time.

    Indeed German towns and cities where hit badly by regularly bombing raids but actually hitting specific targets was with accuracy on regular bombing raids was quite difficult to do. I think the devastation of a nuclear bomb would of been more effective at reducing industrial capability, radiation would have rendered rebuilding industrial production sites more difficult and I think been consistently hit month after month with nuclear weapons would probably have been pretty devastating to the morale of the German people.

    Japan had no military left. Was blockaded by a ring of US submarines. Allied fighters and bombers roamed at will over the country. Didn't really the atomic bombs to defeat them. Was it needed to persuade the leadership? Maybe.

    Germany proved it could constantly move production very quickly. Bombing a city into rubble makes it very hard to capture and move through it as an attacking force. It basically makes every street a bunker and barricade. Tactically is a bad move. Their society was so broken by the regime I'm not sure if was possible to break their spirit in a conventional way.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    But we know all this with the benefit of hindsight and 80yrs of analysis.


  • Moderators Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Azza


    beauf wrote: »
    Japan had no military left. Was blockaded by a ring of US submarines. Allied fighters and bombers roamed at will over the country. Didn't really the atomic bombs to defeat them. Was it needed to persuade the leadership? Maybe.

    Germany proved it could constantly move production very quickly. Bombing a city into rubble makes it very hard to capture and move through it as an attacking force. It basically makes every street a bunker and barricade. Tactically is a bad move. Their society was so broken by the regime I'm not sure if was possible to break their spirit in a conventional way.

    To say the Japanese had no military left is quite wide of the mark, it numbered into the millions at the time of their surrender. As for what convinced them to surrender I believe it was combination of the atomic bombs and the Soviet declaration of war and invasion of Manchuria.

    I don't know for certain whether atomic bombs would of convinced the German's to quit the war for definite but with such weapons used against you is bound to have a major psychological impact. As Del.Monte said I don't believe the German's on the whole where suicidal in their convictions.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Azza wrote: »
    To say the Japanese had no military left is quite wide of the mark, it numbered into the millions at the time of their surrender. As for what convinced them to surrender I believe it was combination of the atomic bombs and the Soviet declaration of war and invasion of Manchuria.

    I don't know for certain whether atomic bombs would of convinced the German's to quit the war for definite but with such weapons used against you is bound to have a major psychological impact. As Del.Monte said I don't believe the German's on the whole where suicidal in their convictions.

    I take your point about the numbers of men. But they couldn't defend themselves from the air or the sea. They could bomb them from the air or bombard from the sea with impunity. Food shortages etc. I do agree there were wider political considerations in play also.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,205 ✭✭✭scotchy


    Interesting thread.
    Something that has not really been mentioned is the Mediterranean. Hitler tried to persuade Franco to join forces and maybe retake Gibraltar.
    Famously Hitler is alleged to have said that he would “rather have three or four teeth pulled” than go through another meeting with him. If Germany and Italy had managed to take Gibraltar and Malta, and perhaps secured the Med, and access to north Africa, who knows how much longer things would have went on.

    .

    💙 💛 💙 💛 💙 💛



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,984 ✭✭✭Stovepipe


    Germany was on it's knees by the turn of 1944 and by the end of January 1945, was pretty much unable to keep it's armies fuelled, armed and even fed. Only the fact that logistical lines were now very short meant that it could get what ammunition it had to the front in fairly short order. The death rate of it's soldiers and citizens meant that it was running out of replacements to the point where military formations held only a fraction of their establishment of men and machines, production was failing and bombing was reducing the infrastructure to rubble. I read that the loss rate of all Germans, mil and civil was in the order of a million in the last year of the war and soldiers were more willing to surrender than ever before. Even SS units werequitting and they were the hard core Nazis.


  • Moderators Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Azza


    scotchy wrote: »
    Interesting thread.
    Something that has not really been mentioned is the Mediterranean. Hitler tried to persuade Franco to join forces and maybe retake Gibraltar.
    Famously Hitler is alleged to have said that he would “rather have three or four teeth pulled” than go through another meeting with him. If Germany and Italy had managed to take Gibraltar and Malta, and perhaps secured the Med, and access to north Africa, who knows how much longer things would have went on.

    .

    There is a few different factors in why the Axis leaning Spain didn't join the Axis.

    There was reluctance on the German part who didn't believe Spain offered much from a military perspective and might merely be another Italy. Spain wasn't in great shape, unstable politically, nor was it close to recovering from its civil war with its industry, infrastructure and military where all in poor shape. I believe it was estimated that Spain only had enough fuel for one and half months of war. Ribbentrop didn't get on with Franco's brother who was handling negotiations between Spain and Germany. Franco and Hitler did meet on one occasion but the source of the quote about Hitler preferring to have three or four teeth pulled is considered questionable (the source was Mussolini). In addition the German's considered Spain demands to gain control of some of Vichy France's colonies too high a price. All Hitler every really wanted from Spain was passage for his troops to attack Gibraltar.

    From Spain's perspective, Franco believed his regime would not survive if he allied Spain to the Axis powers and they lost the war. In the event of war Spain was in no position to defend its colonies from Britain or America. Also Spain throughout the war traded with the USA and Britain and its weak economy was very reliant on this trade and with other countries, in the event of war this trade would be cut off from them. In fact during the war a bad harvest one year meant Spain was reliant on American aid to feed itself.

    As for Germany/Italy winning in North Africa, it doesn't achieve a whole lot other than go some way towards fulfilling Mussolini's dream of re-establishing the Roman Empire. Yes the British lose a shorter rout to its colonies in India and Asia but they still can go via the horn of Africa.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Stovepipe wrote: »
    Germany was on it's knees by the turn of 1944 and by the end of January 1945, was pretty much unable to keep it's armies fuelled, armed and even fed. ...

    Still put up one hell of a fight....

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Allied_invasion_of_Germany#:~:text=January%E2%80%93May%201945%3A&text=Recorded%20German%20Army%20casualties%20from,5%2C778%20killed%20and%2016%2C820%20wounded.&text=The%20Western%20Allied%20invasion%20of,theatre%20of%20World%20War%20II.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    scotchy wrote: »
    Interesting thread.
    Something that has not really been mentioned is the Mediterranean. .
    .

    Med was a close and hard fought theater.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,676 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,561 ✭✭✭JJayoo


    What if the Germans had developed the bomb before the allies had joined in?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Yes. But it wasn't a fight whose outcome was ever in much doubt, even on the German side.

    For sure.

    It was some of the toughest fighting of the war though.


  • Moderators Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Azza


    The events that I believe where in Germany's control that if changed could more likely lead to a German victory are

    1. Destroying the British Forces at Dunkirk. Destroying or capturing most of this force "may" have seen the British come to peace terms with the Germans.

    This would have several knock on effects. German land forces both men and tanks would take some losses defeating the British, but this would likely be offset by other benefits.

    The Battle of Britain would not have to been have fought, meaning the Luftwaffe would have had considerably greater strength for Barbarossa.
    The German's would also not have to have fought the Battle of the Atlantic, freeing up more resources for the war with the Soviet Union.
    Likewise the German's would not have needed to get involved in the very resource intensive campaign of North Africa, resources in terms of both men, tank and fuel that could of been used against Russia.
    The Balkan interlude may not have occurred. Italy would likely still invade Greece and get its ass handed to it but the German's may not have felt the need to intervene if Britain was not providing the Greeks with assistance. I don't believe the Balkan Interlude any significant effect on the outcome of Barbarossa but in this scenario the Germans maybe get to begin Barbarossa three weeks earlier, meaning they may have been in a better position to handle the winter.
    I think possibly the most significant effect is the naval blockade of Germany and occupied Europe would come to an end, this would allow Germany to resuming trading with the likes of Venezuela for oil, greatly alleviating the oil crisis Germany was suffering. When it comes to Operation Barbarossa, time and again the German's had to stop as they ran out of fuel, this prevented them advancing further and inflicting even more damage on the Red Army and might of well been able to take Moscow.
    While no Lend Lease was sent to the Russians in 1941 a relatively small amount was sent to them in 1942 mostly by the British. With Britain out of the war this doesn't happen.

    I don't think taking Moscow wins the war for Germany though as most historians reckon the Russia's would of kept fighting even had they lost Moscow. For the Germans to win they need Moscow and more importantly they need the Caucasus oil fields both to keep themselves supplied with oil and to deny it to the Russians. Even with Britain out of the war and Germany focused solely against Russia I do not believe Germany was capable of taking both in 1941. For geographic reasons they should of focused on Moscow first instead of trying to do both at the same time. Moscow the target in 1941, the Caucasus the target in 1942.

    2. Work more closely with Japan and get them to invade the Soviet Union from the east. Its a common belief that when Stalin's spy Richard Sorge in Tokyo informed him that Japan was not intending to attack Russia, Stalin was able to transfer large numbers of troops from Siberia for the counter attack that pushed the Germans back at Moscow. However that's not entirely accurate, as only part of the troops transferred came from Siberia, the majority came from other parts of the USSR and their transfer had nothing to do with Stalin holding them back in the event of an attack by Japan. Even still an attack by Japan may have likely tied down considerably numbers of Russia troops. I'm not sure what the infrastructure and industry would of been like in Eastern Russian and if the Russians would of been willing to give ground there to concentrate on Germany, nor do I really know what Japan's capability would be when it comes to how far they could advance and what territory they could take a hold but it seems plausible enough by a large enough Japanese force along with the German invasion might have simply been too much for Russia to handle.

    3. Again with a closer relationship with Japan try to get them to refrain from attacking the USA. Or at the very least if they do attack America, Germany and Italy do not declare war on the USA.

    In order for Germany to win they need a way of quickly knocking out Great Britain out of the way, because of their oil situation. Invasion of Britain was beyond their capability, a larger U-Boat campaign takes too long. Winning in North Africa and the Mediterranean most likely does not knock Britain out of the war either. Destroying the British at Dunkirk might not knock the UK out of the war either but at the very least it makes it easier for the German's and Italian's in North Africa as the British would have fewer troops to send there.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,984 ✭✭✭Stovepipe


    If they had taken Malta and Cyprus in 1940, they would have denied the Med to the British, neutralised Alexandria as an RN port and threatened Gibraltar. It might have persuaded Franco to join Spain to Germany's side and seize Gibraltar from the land side. They could have left Greece and Yugoslavia alone. I find that the most ironic thing is that both sides never knew they were driving over Libyan oil,as yet undiscovered. If they had found oil in the Desert campaign,it would have been an incredible game changer for either side.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    JJayoo wrote: »
    What if the Germans had developed the bomb before the allies had joined in?

    We are talking exclusively about realistic possibilities. The Germans did not have access to large quantities of uranium and the top nuclear scientists had been Jews who fled persecution for the United States.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    Stovepipe wrote: »
    If they had taken Malta and Cyprus in 1940, they would have denied the Med to the British, neutralised Alexandria as an RN port and threatened Gibraltar. It might have persuaded Franco to join Spain to Germany's side and seize Gibraltar from the land side. They could have left Greece and Yugoslavia alone. I find that the most ironic thing is that both sides never knew they were driving over Libyan oil,as yet undiscovered. If they had found oil in the Desert campaign,it would have been an incredible game changer for either side.

    The Germans did not have the capability to fight the Royal Navy which would have been required to seize and hold Malta and Cyprus. True the Germans had taken Crete but the losses of airborne forces and transport aircraft were never recovered so taking those other islands by air was a non starter.

    To exploit Libyan oil would have required years of infrastructural development vulnerable to Allied bombardment not the mention the problem of piping it or shipping it while under attack. Another non starter.

    An invasion of Gibraltar was not going to happen until Britain was out of the war. After the Spanish Civil War the country was devastated and Franco naturally was not interested in getting involved in a world conflict while his regime remained insecure. Yet another non runner.

    Again if Halifax had made peace in 1940 without the need for a Battle of Britain or fighting in the Mediterranean so Hitler could get on with the invasion of Russia in 1941 without delay with luck Hitler could have captured Moscow. Even so that was a longshot.

    I am trying to imagine an alternate timeline constrained by the Hitler we know and the most realistic options open to him.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    Azza wrote: »
    The events that I believe where in Germany's control that if changed could more likely lead to a German victory are

    1. Destroying the British Forces at Dunkirk. Destroying or capturing most of this force "may" have seen the British come to peace terms with the Germans.

    This would have several knock on effects. German land forces both men and tanks would take some losses defeating the British, but this would likely be offset by other benefits.

    The Battle of Britain would not have to been have fought, meaning the Luftwaffe would have had considerably greater strength for Barbarossa.
    The German's would also not have to have fought the Battle of the Atlantic, freeing up more resources for the war with the Soviet Union.
    Likewise the German's would not have needed to get involved in the very resource intensive campaign of North Africa, resources in terms of both men, tank and fuel that could of been used against Russia.
    The Balkan interlude may not have occurred. Italy would likely still invade Greece and get its ass handed to it but the German's may not have felt the need to intervene if Britain was not providing the Greeks with assistance. I don't believe the Balkan Interlude any significant effect on the outcome of Barbarossa but in this scenario the Germans maybe get to begin Barbarossa three weeks earlier, meaning they may have been in a better position to handle the winter.
    I think possibly the most significant effect is the naval blockade of Germany and occupied Europe would come to an end, this would allow Germany to resuming trading with the likes of Venezuela for oil, greatly alleviating the oil crisis Germany was suffering. When it comes to Operation Barbarossa, time and again the German's had to stop as they ran out of fuel, this prevented them advancing further and inflicting even more damage on the Red Army and might of well been able to take Moscow.
    While no Lend Lease was sent to the Russians in 1941 a relatively small amount was sent to them in 1942 mostly by the British. With Britain out of the war this doesn't happen.

    I don't think taking Moscow wins the war for Germany though as most historians reckon the Russia's would of kept fighting even had they lost Moscow. For the Germans to win they need Moscow and more importantly they need the Caucasus oil fields both to keep themselves supplied with oil and to deny it to the Russians. Even with Britain out of the war and Germany focused solely against Russia I do not believe Germany was capable of taking both in 1941. For geographic reasons they should of focused on Moscow first instead of trying to do both at the same time. Moscow the target in 1941, the Caucasus the target in 1942.

    2. Work more closely with Japan and get them to invade the Soviet Union from the east. Its a common belief that when Stalin's spy Richard Sorge in Tokyo informed him that Japan was not intending to attack Russia, Stalin was able to transfer large numbers of troops from Siberia for the counter attack that pushed the Germans back at Moscow. However that's not entirely accurate, as only part of the troops transferred came from Siberia, the majority came from other parts of the USSR and their transfer had nothing to do with Stalin holding them back in the event of an attack by Japan. Even still an attack by Japan may have likely tied down considerably numbers of Russia troops. I'm not sure what the infrastructure and industry would of been like in Eastern Russian and if the Russians would of been willing to give ground there to concentrate on Germany, nor do I really know what Japan's capability would be when it comes to how far they could advance and what territory they could take a hold but it seems plausible enough by a large enough Japanese force along with the German invasion might have simply been too much for Russia to handle.

    3. Again with a closer relationship with Japan try to get them to refrain from attacking the USA. Or at the very least if they do attack America, Germany and Italy do not declare war on the USA.

    In order for Germany to win they need a way of quickly knocking out Great Britain out of the way, because of their oil situation. Invasion of Britain was beyond their capability, a larger U-Boat campaign takes too long. Winning in North Africa and the Mediterranean most likely does not knock Britain out of the war either. Destroying the British at Dunkirk might not knock the UK out of the war either but at the very least it makes it easier for the German's and Italian's in North Africa as the British would have fewer troops to send there.

    The Germans could not have both captured Dunkirk and captured Paris in 1940 swiftly. For Hitler time was of the essence. The prize was Paris and a delay at Dunkirk could have allowed the French to recover and hold up the German advance for quite a long time.
    His Luftwaffe adjutant said the Hitler was dismissive of the importance of the British in Dunkirk. He needed his armored units for the capture of France rather than waste them in a protratcted fight against the Dunkirk pocket. He didn't think that many British would escape anyway and Goering promised to take care of them in any case.
    Instead the Germans wasted no time and advanced on the Seine and the Frence forces to the West of Paris were cut off surrounded and destroyed. The French high commanded ordered their forces in the centre and the east to pull back to the Loire Valley in good order but the Germans broke through at multiple points before they could form a line and pushed on into the French interior cutting off and surrounding more and more of the remaining French armies. Hitler gambled that with Paris fallen the war in Europe was practically won. If the British escaped it was a price worth paying. They left much of their equipment and weapons behind on the beaches and would presumably sue for peace.
    Hitler reversed his decision to ignore Dunkirk when he realized so many troops were escaping by sea.
    Without the bulk of the BEP escaping even Churchill would probably have thrown in the towel.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,238 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    We are talking exclusively about realistic possibilities. The Germans did not have access to large quantities of uranium and the top nuclear scientists had been Jews who fled persecution for the United States.


    Mainly true but not sure about the uranium. Much of it was shipped after the war to the US. I was told that some made its way in to the Hiroshima bomb!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    saabsaab wrote: »
    Mainly true but not sure about the uranium. Much of it was shipped after the war to the US. I was told that some made its way in to the Hiroshima bomb!

    I understand that uranium used in the Hiroshima bomb came from ore mines in Belgian Congo and it was purified in centrifuges in the United States. The Nazis didn't have access to sources of material because of the war at sea and never put the resources into a Manhattan style program


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,238 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    I understand that uranium used in the Hiroshima bomb came from ore mines in Belgian Congo and it was purified in centrifuges in the United States. The Nazis didn't have access to sources of material because of the war at sea and never put the resources into a Manhattan style program


    From NY times article re captured Nazi Uranium

    'Now, however, a former official of the Manhattan Project, John Lansdale Jr., says that the uranium went into the mix of raw materials used for making the world's first atom bombs. At the time he was an Army lieutenant colonel for intelligence and security for the atom bomb project. One of his main jobs was tracking uranium.Mr. Lansdale's assertion in an interview raises the possibility that the American weapons that leveled the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained at least some nuclear material originally destined for Japan's own atomic program and, perhaps, for attacks on the United States.' https://www.forbes.com/sites/kionasmith/2019/05/20/the-search-for-lost-nazi-uranium/


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    saabsaab wrote: »
    From NY times article re captured Nazi Uranium

    'Now, however, a former official of the Manhattan Project, John Lansdale Jr., says that the uranium went into the mix of raw materials used for making the world's first atom bombs. At the time he was an Army lieutenant colonel for intelligence and security for the atom bomb project. One of his main jobs was tracking uranium.Mr. Lansdale's assertion in an interview raises the possibility that the American weapons that leveled the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained at least some nuclear material originally destined for Japan's own atomic program and, perhaps, for attacks on the United States.' https://www.forbes.com/sites/kionasmith/2019/05/20/the-search-for-lost-nazi-uranium/

    I stand corrected. Fascinating article.

    Anyways the Germans were never close to building a bomb or a bomb that could be delivered by plane or rocket.
    It was purely aspirational and far too late.


  • Site Banned Posts: 113 ✭✭Dunfyy


    He could of invaded England and not gone into Russia and if japan had not attacked america as americans did not want to enter the war


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,733 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    An interesting book on the potential invasion of England "We March against England" by Robert Forczyk posits that the German invasion even after the Summer of 1940 would have faced formidable challenges and on balance was unlikely to have succeed.


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