Pinatubo

tryfix · 19-09-2019 9:39pm #1

Just interested in how people see this lad progressing from here on. He's compact and built like a tank which screams Sprinter next year, but he's already won three times going away over 7f so a mile next year should be no bother to him.

His pedigree says 8f-10f as a 3yo with Antisana his half sibling by Dubawi ( a bigger stamina influence than Shamardal ) having won at 12f.

His physique says that he's a precocious sort who will lose his advantage over the others as a 3yo. His form stacks up, although those in behind at the Curragh were a bit overrated ( Armory ) going into the race.

Is it a case of Too Darn Hot again?

Andrew00 · 19-09-2019 10:14pm

Pinatubo would've destroyed a 2yo Too Darn Hot.

I can't see him being as good next year, if he even runs, I think he'll get "injured" like alot of the Appelby/Godolphin hot pots

BumperD · 19-09-2019 11:10pm

What was the goldofin one last year won at curragh impressively quarto not seen this year, hope it’s not a repeat

I’ve seen only a dozen or so performances like that in 30 years so was very impressed by him hope he stays right

Slattsy · 19-09-2019 11:34pm

Won't be seen as a three year old.

Motivator · 20-09-2019 12:05am

Slattsy wrote: »

Won't be seen as a three year old.

I don’t know what you’re basing that ridiculous comment on. I was in Meydan in February and Appleby held a questions and answers appearance before racing and told everyone this horse is Godolphin’s great white hope. They’ve not had a 2yo like this on their books in god knows how long, if ever. I’ve no interest in the flat whatsoever, I enjoy the days out it gives but from a punting and enjoyment perspective it means nothing to me. However, the name stuck with me and I’ve watched his runs so far and he has been exceptional. They’ll mop up all the Group 1 races they can with him as a 3/4yo

IAMAMORON · 20-09-2019 1:23am

Fill your boots, as long as it runs nothing will catch it.

tryfix · 20-09-2019 1:26am

The Godolphin record with their star 2yos as 3yos is/was pretty poor. Charlie Appleby is better than previous Godolphin trainers at keeping them on track, but even then his record isn't inspiring either.

In general, such beasts of 2yos don't maintain their advantages as 3yo. Frankel wasn't at this fellas level as a 2yo, despite his wide margin G2 win at Ascot his G1 Dewhurst win was solid but not spectacular.

John Oxx's Manntari was an incredible 10L winner of the National Stakes as a 2yo and won his Guineas trial as a 3yo but flopped in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and was never seen on the track again.

Celtic Swing won the Racing Post Trophy by 12L as a 2yo. He was 2nd in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, won the French Derby and flopped in the Irish Derby, basically he drifted from a great height back to the pack as a 3yo.

Arazi the 5L winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Dirt from the brilliant 2yo Bertrando ( Bertrando had won his previous G1 by 14L and won eff all as 3yo ). Arazi's early season 3yo form was poor, he came back to winning form at the Arc meeting in the Prix Dollar.

Appleby's not so brilliant G1 winning juvenile Line Of Duty is only beginning to find his form again as a 3yo as the season closes.

A 2,000 Guineas win for Pinatubo is far from a formality based on the records of previous superstar 2yos.

BumperD · 20-09-2019 2:07am

The horses that save a little for themselves last longer.

paddyisreal · 20-09-2019 8:18am

tryfix wrote: »

The Godolphin record with their star 2yos as 3yos is/was pretty poor. Charlie Appleby is better than previous Godolphin trainers at keeping them on track, but even then his record isn't inspiring either.

In general, such beasts of 2yos don't maintain their advantages as 3yo. Frankel wasn't at this fellas level as a 2yo, despite his wide margin G2 win at Ascot his G1 Dewhurst win was solid but not spectacular.

John Oxx's Manntari was an incredible 10L winner of the National Stakes as a 2yo and won his Guineas trial as a 3yo but flopped in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and was never seen on the track again.

Celtic Swing won the Racing Post Trophy by 12L as a 2yo. He was 2nd in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, won the French Derby and flopped in the Irish Derby, basically he drifted from a great height back to the pack as a 3yo.

Arazi the 5L winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Dirt from the brilliant 2yo Bertrando ( Bertrando had won his previous G1 by 14L and won eff all as 3yo ). Arazi's early season 3yo form was poor, he came back to winning form at the Arc meeting in the Prix Dollar.

Appleby's not so brilliant G1 winning juvenile Line Of Duty is only beginning to find his form again as a 3yo as the season closes.

A 2,000 Guineas win for Pinatubo is far from a formality based on the records of previous superstar 2yos.

Off the top of my head 3 top godolphin 2 years olds that trained on dubawi, shamrdal, blue point. The English guineas is not the be all and end all - look at John gisdens record in the race. Also too darn hot still won 2 group1s as a three year old so to say he didn't meet expectations is a bit over the top.

IAMAMORON · 20-09-2019 9:36am

Brace yourselves for a long winter of superlatives from the British media. They just never shut the fùck up when they get a good one.

The " maestro " Charlie Appleby with his "mercurial" ," unbeaten superstar "....

" is this the greatest 2 year old we have seen "

Jesus an Irish 2 year wins the national stakes every other year and you wouldn'y hear a tickety boo. If one wins the Dewhurst it is always " a great training performsnce" , on to the next race.

This horse is going to be in every foooking 10 second slow motion clip you see on ITV until May, and that's before the Derby crap kicks off.

BigStickMick · 20-09-2019 9:40am

He is the 2nd highest rated 2yo ever by Timeform and looks totally justified to be honest.
Whether he can stay fit and improve again as a 3yo is hard to know, but the boys in blue do not have a brilliant record at keeping these precocious 2yos on an upward curve. He will be a very special horse if they can do it though.

Blinkers_off · 20-09-2019 12:02pm

he's incredible and would be guaranteed a guineas winner if with gosden or o'brien but could not trust godolphin at all to keep him going

paddyisreal · 20-09-2019 12:24pm

Blinkers_off wrote: »

he's incredible and would be guaranteed a guineas winner if with gosden or o'brien but could not trust godolphin at all to keep him going

Gosdon has never won a 2000 guineas in England, he allows his horses to mature a reaps the benefits later .

tryfix · 20-09-2019 3:09pm

paddyisreal wrote: »

Off the top of my head 3 top godolphin 2 years olds that trained on dubawi, shamrdal, blue point. The English guineas is not the be all and end all - look at John gisdens record in the race. Also too darn hot still won 2 group1s as a three year old so to say he didn't meet expectations is a bit over the top.

We're not so much talking about good 2yos that train on, we're discussing monster 2yos in the context of Pinatubo's likely future. Blue point was a G1 placed 2yo not a star 2yo. IIRC O'Brien's Caravaggio was the star 2yo that year and although he won a G1 sprint as a 3yo he didn't hold his 2yo high rating as 3yo.

Dubawi and Shamardal were Champion 2yo level horses ( Shamardal was bought in from Mark Johnson for mega bucks) who were 2yos 15 years ago when Godolphin were very successfully wintering their 2yos/purchases in Dubai and coming back with huge success as 3yos. That practice has ceased to work for them. I don't remember either of those 2 horses been in the wonder horse league at the end of their 2yo seasons ( they hadn't defied gravity as 2yos )

Too Darn Hot is only partly? owned by Godolphin, he's trained by John Gosden, New Approach and Dawn Approach were bought by Godolphin and trained by Jim Bolger. Of those 3 Too Darn Hot was the Superstar 2yo who would supposedly walk on water as a 3yo.

Too Darn Hot went backward as a 3yo and was regaining some of his lustre but was still 5lbs or so below his 2yo rating as a 3yo when he retired. There's no way that it could be said that he met the high expectations that were held for him as a 3yo.

I wasn't having a go at Godolphin, they just happen to train Pinatubo who is the subject of the thread. It's just a matter of fact that they have had a lot of G1 winning 2yos who haven't made much of an impact at 3.

The Tetrarch · 23-09-2019 9:39pm

What Tryfix said.
More recently Air Force Blue 2yo form 1,2,1,1,1 .... 12th of 13 in the Guineas as 4/5 fav.
Every week over the winter horses are growing and catching up.

paddyisreal · 23-09-2019 10:30pm

As I said before the guineas is not the be all and and all. While won it this year again ?

tryfix · 26-09-2019 9:56pm

The first crack in Pinatubo's apparent greatness appeared today. Mark Johnson's Monoski who was beaten 11 1/2L into 4th by Pinatubo in the G1 National Stakes ran today in the G3 Somerville Tattersall Stakes at Newmarket where he again finished 4th. Monoski was beaten 10 3/4L today by the very impressive 7L winner Wichita.

Pinatubo is hardly likely to be the the reincarnation of Pegasus if there's just 3/4L in collateral form between him and Witchita.

The Circus moves on to the 6f G1 Middle Park Stakes on Saturday. I'd regard it as the most interesting field that I've ever seen lined for a Middle Park. Lope Y Fernandez represents the Pinatubo form, although it's hard to know whether Lope Y ran his race behind Pinatubo in their last encounter.

paddyisreal · 27-09-2019 6:28am

Or you could say it was enhanced, visinari finished a length behind Wichita in Doncaster and was beaten by 14 lengths in goodwood by pinatubo. Form only tells you so much.. pinatubo also beat lope y twice in ascot and goodwood by 3.5 over 6 and 10 over 7. Lope y will be there abouts over 6 on Saturday but earthlight looked a bit special in France to me

tryfix · 27-09-2019 7:26am

paddyisreal wrote: »

Or you could say it was enhanced, visinari finished a length behind Wichita in Doncaster and was beaten by 14 lengths in goodwood by pinatubo. Form only tells you so much.. pinatubo also beat lope y twice in ascot and goodwood by 3.5 over 6 and 10 over 7. Lope y will be there abouts over 6 on Saturday but earthlight looked a bit special in France to me

Ah yeah, it's nearly all maybes with some of the juvenile big race form at the moment. Lope Y has a lot to find to bother the judges on Saturday. I'm hoping that the Phoenix form holds up, I have Monarch Of Egypt down as a horse who should progress on what he has done so far. I'd rather that he stepped up a furlong or two at this stage, coz he's bred to be a Guineas horse and looks like he's just about to get a move on at the end of 6f.

deeks · 30-09-2019 2:02pm

Motivator wrote: »

I don’t know what you’re basing that ridiculous comment on. I was in Meydan in February and Appleby held a questions and answers appearance before racing and told everyone this horse is Godolphin’s great white hope. They’ve not had a 2yo like this on their books in god knows how long, if ever. I’ve no interest in the flat whatsoever, I enjoy the days out it gives but from a punting and enjoyment perspective it means nothing to me. However, the name stuck with me and I’ve watched his runs so far and he has been exceptional. They’ll mop up all the Group 1 races they can with him as a 3/4yo

Do I not remember a quote from Appleby either before or after the National Stakes where he said that the horse shows nothing at home which was why they started him off in an all weather race?

elderberry · 30-09-2019 4:40pm

deeks wrote: »

Do I not remember a quote from Appleby either before or after the National Stakes where he said that the horse shows nothing at home which was why they started him off in an all weather race?

Afterwards - "We started his career off at Wolverhampton for a reason as we didn’t really know he was in the yard. He’s done nothing but improve with each run. " - https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Sensational-Pinatubo-blows-away-National-Stakes-opposition&prid=202901

paddyisreal · 06-10-2019 2:35pm

Form was franked today, armory beaten 9 lengths beaten about1.5 today in a group one.

antietam · 11-10-2019 2:54pm

He is small and is the complete 2ry old but little scope to be a 3yr old.No bigger than Too Darn Hot from what I saw at the Curragh parade ring and certainly will lay him if he shortens as I did with Gosdens.

paddyisreal · 12-10-2019 3:40pm

Not as good as the curragh but ground and the way the race was ran was against him. Still very very impressive

madmoose · 12-10-2019 3:48pm

Was very impressed how he battled in that ground as it would of blunted his speed no doubt.

Should win Guineas but think something will close the gap come May and then progress ahead of him as next season goes on, don’t have a clue what horse that will be though.

famagusta · 12-10-2019 3:53pm

Start laying him for the guineas now!

tryfix · 12-10-2019 4:07pm

I was impressed by the O'Brien horses, Arizona was at his best and appears to be improving. They all ran well, although Witchita is a big tank of a yoke that's hard to assess.

Pinatubo won by the distance that I expected him to do ( saw this race as being like Frankel's Dewhurst where he won well but nowhere near as impressively as in his previous romp ).

The winner appears to be a similar type to Too Darn Hot, but being by Shamardal means he's much more likely to be ready early in the year for the 2,000 Guineas than the Dubawi colt Too Darn Hot was.

If O'Brien wins the Racing Post Trophy then his winner of that might be a value alternative to Pinatubo in the 2,000 Guineas.

The Tetrarch · 13-10-2019 10:42am

I backed Arizona 10 at 32s yesterday and was happy with his effort.
Pinatubo is the archetypal winter 2000 Guineas favourite, six runs, six wins.
His dam got further than a mile, and that might help him get a mile. He has only run at 6f and 7f.
A bigger horse is needed for the 2000 Guineas, and he will need to grow a little.
For the record Pinatubo is 5/4 for the race.
The ideal situation is Pinatubo goes to the 2000 Guineas without a prep run, often a sign that connections are not very confident.
And I will be looking for an outsider to back.

elderberry · 13-10-2019 11:21am

Anyone recall what Shamardal himself was like as a 2yo and how he progressed from 2 to 3?

tryfix · 13-10-2019 1:36pm

elderberry wrote: »

Anyone recall what Shamardal himself was like as a 2yo and how he progressed from 2 to 3?

As a 2yo

On his debut he won his maiden by 8L. He then went to the G2 Champagne Stakes at Goodwood and won it by 2 1/2L. He then won the Dewhurst by 2 1/2L from Oratorio.

As a 3yo

Godolphin had taken him over from Mark Johnson and wintered him in Dubai. His 3yo career started with a 9th placed 46L beating in the UAE Derby on Dirt.

He then went to Chantilly he started as 4/1 fav for the French 2,000 Guineas, he won it by head from David Wachman's Indesatchel.

After that he won the newly shortened 10 1/2f French Derby by a neck from Hurricane Run.

He was brought back to a mile for the St James Palace Stakes ( held at York that year) and was an impressive 3L winner.

That was last race, he got when being prepped for the Eclipse. His 3yo career was over before the end of June.

As a stallion his stock have trained on, but this year's 3 Juvenile G1 winners is not the norm for his stock. In recent times his best stock have been brought on slowly and have been making a mark in middle distance races.

The only other G1 winning Juvenile that I can remember him siring was the Racing Post Trophy winner Casamento who flopped at 3.

There's no real frame of reference for what should be expected from the future careers of his 3 G1 winning Juveniles of 2019.

paddyisreal · 13-10-2019 3:02pm

Lumiere was a top class two year also and blue point wasn't too bad either.

The Tetrarch · 13-10-2019 3:35pm

paddyisreal wrote: »

Lumiere was a top class two year also and blue point wasn't too bad either.

The problem is many 2yos are good at 5f, 6f, 7f.
The assumption is when they are 3yos they will automatically be better at longer, say 8f, 10f, 12f.
But many of the good 2yos were good as 2yos because, for example, they are 6f horses competing against horses unsuited to 6f who will become 8f, 10f horses as 3yo.
You hear a 2yo didn't "train on". What happened is they were run at the wrong distance as a 3yo.
Ten Sovereigns is a good 2019 example of this.
Three wins from three runs at 6f as a 2yo in 2018, then ran 5th in the 2000 Guineas, followed afterwards by a drop in trip to 6f, 6f, 5f.

Blue Point ran all his 20 races as a 2yo, 3yo, 4yo, 5yo at 5f and 6f (except one at 7f, 3rd).

tryfix · 13-10-2019 5:38pm

paddyisreal wrote: »

Lumiere was a top class two year also and blue point wasn't too bad either.

I can barely remember her but she must have been very good to earn a 116 OR as a 2yo filly when winning the 6f G1 Chevrolet Park Stakes.

She too didn't train on at 3, or maybe The Tetrarch's point about running G1 6f 2yo winners over further at 3 is why she made little impact at 3. She ran at 1m for most of her 3yo season with her best run coming when 2nd in a G2 after being stepped back down to 7f.

Blue Point's placed efforts in G1 company as a 2yo were probably his salvation as they meant that they put him straight into sprinting company as a 3yo instead of messing about with him in the 2,000 Guineas.

Blue Point is bred to be a sprinter. He has a Dosage Index of 2.53. His dam was a sprinter, his highest rated sibling was a sprinter.

Pinatubo has a DI of 1.96 which is a miler figure. His pedigree and Dewhurst win scream 8f at 3yo.

Earthlight has a DI of 1.76 which is a miler figure as is his breeding. His win in the G1 6f Middle Park looked as if he'd be happier at a bit further at this stage.

Victor Ludorum has a high DI of 2.56 which says Sprinter-Miler but none of his siblings were sprinters and all of his runs have been at a mile. His last win coming from his fine turn of foot in a slow run mile.

There's nothing in the breeding of those 3 that says they wouldn't train on.

tryfix · 13-10-2019 5:45pm

Charlie Appleby says he dare not think of Pinatubo's ability to stay the mile and a half of the Investec Derby, but is now more comfortable that the mile of the Qipco 2,000 Guineas will be his minimum requirement at three.

Pinatubo conserved his stranglehold over the ante-post market for the Guineas with what was ultimately a comfortable defeat of Arizona in Saturday's Dewhurst Stakes, with the unbeaten colt no bigger than 5-4 for the first Classic of 2020.

Pinatubo also heads the betting for the Derby and, although he has yet to race over further than seven furlongs, Appleby sees the mile at Newmarket as just the starting point.

Speaking in the Racing Post's Monday Jury, Appleby said: "A starting point over a mile will be perfect for him and I see no reason why a mile and a quarter shouldn't be within his compass.

"Most importantly, we're confident he'll get the mile no problem, and from thereon once we've got through the Guineas we can start to map out a plan."

Pinatubo was sired by Shamardal, who has yet to produce a Derby winner, so Sheikh Mohammed could be tempted by Epsom should his super colt land the Guineas.

"Pedigree-wise he's entitled to get a mile and a half - his dam Lava Flow saw the trip out well so you've got that to take into consideration," said Appleby, when talking on RTV's Luck on Sunday show.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/pinatubo-bred-for-derby-trip-but-guineas-will-be-the-first-aim-says-appleby/404065

Charlie Appleby is getting more than a fair bit ahead of himself. He should be looking over his shoulder and wondering why the O'Brien horses closed the gap on him in the Dewhurst.

paddyisreal · 13-10-2019 10:13pm

O briens horses closed the gap due to the way the race was run, Johnny murtagh was talking about it afterwards. O briens had the run of the race and were still beaten easily no matter what way you look at it. I dont back antipost but he is 10lb better than any other horse o brien has at the moment. Also the guineas is not the be all , pinatube will end up having a better career than any of them behind him yesterday even if he loses the guineas

Andrew00 · 13-10-2019 10:33pm

Arizona will win the guineas he's a monster 2yo will only get better

paddyisreal · 13-10-2019 10:53pm

Whatever about shamardal making 3 year olds which is fairly proven, the verdict is out on no nay never stock been anything more than good two year olds. Time will tell.

tryfix · 14-10-2019 4:00am

paddyisreal wrote: »

Whatever about shamardal making 3 year olds which is fairly proven, the verdict is out on no nay never stock been anything more than good two year olds. Time will tell.

At this stage of No Nay Never's career ( Arizona was bred when his fee was just €17,500 ) he's all about 2yos and good 6-7f 3yos with a smattering of horses threatening to make it at a mile in the best of company. He has had 39 individual winners at 5-6f, 17 at 7-9f, 1 at 10f.

When his €100,000 a pop crops come on stream he'll be knocking in G1 winners over a mile. Something similar happened with Danehill and Danehill Dancer at the start of their careers, but No Nay Never has less stamina to transmit than those two.

Scott Tenorman · 14-10-2019 9:23am

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I backed Arizona 10 at 32s yesterday and was happy with his effort.
Pinatubo is the archetypal winter 2000 Guineas favourite, six runs, six wins.
His dam got further than a mile, and that might help him get a mile. He has only run at 6f and 7f.
A bigger horse is needed for the 2000 Guineas, and he will need to grow a little.
For the record Pinatubo is 5/4 for the race.
The ideal situation is Pinatubo goes to the 2000 Guineas without a prep run, often a sign that connections are not very confident.
And I will be looking for an outsider to back.

I would say the opposite, 7 of the last 8 2000 Guineas winners haven't had a prep run

Morgans · 14-10-2019 10:13am

Scott Tenorman wrote: »

I would say the opposite, 7 of the last 8 2000 Guineas winners haven't had a prep run

In fact, you can tell the O'Brien horse they really fancy by its lack of a prep run.

Pinatubo

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