€1.3bn shortfall in transport spending

GM228 · 22-11-2017 5:03pm #1

Probably worthy of it's own thread rather than thrown into an existing road or rail thread.

https://independent.ie/irish-news/13bn-shortfall-in-transport-spending-36342589.html

Figures from the Department of Transport show that the State has under-funded 'steady state' investment for the last four years, which comes after the IMF warned in recent weeks that Ireland's infrastructure was at risk of deteriorating due to a lack of funding set aside for ongoing maintenance.

Official figures show there is an accumulated deficit of €665m for local and regional roads, €138m for heavy rail, €20m for buses and at least €480m for national roads.

So, a €1.3bn shortfall for transport spending, expected to rise to €2.2bn.

devnull · 22-11-2017 5:19pm

It says that figures from the Department of Transport show that the infrastructure has been underfunded but it makes no mention of these figures themselves? Are the official figures it refers to the ones that are from the Dublin Chamber of Commerce or the ones supplied by the Department of Transport?

Also how is the so called deficit worked out? Is it the difference between what the Department of Transport are spending and what the Chamber of Commerce should be spending or what the Department of Transport said they would spend vs what they actually are spending? What are these figures if it's the later?

It's not been written in a very clear and detailed way and is a little vague about these things.

Riskymove · 22-11-2017 5:23pm

GM228 wrote: »

So, a €1.3bn shortfall for transport spending, expected to rise to €2.2bn.

so basically the Indo is reporting that the Dublin Chamber says that €1.6bn is needed every year to maintain infrastructure and that it isn't being provided

and of course, as it suits agenda, no questioning by Indo of that claim

is there any evidence for this? any link to a report or document?

XPS_Zero · 22-11-2017 6:10pm

One of the reasons were losing out on catching rats running from the sinking HMS Brexit is our infrastructure. We were meant to have Transport 21 done and finished by now according to the original timetable , it would have been a great state jobs program (way better than bloody jobsbridge) and stimulus package during the crash, but Pascal canceled it, not understanding the difference between an investment and an expense. It would have got us more cash in the long term.

Metro North and West done, Line b2 and F in Luas done, a load of Luas extensions done, huge changes to bus network done, imagine if they'd combined that with reform of CIE? What we could have accomplished? Well it's not totally too late, we need a reshuffle first, get someone actually interested in Transport into the job not a parsh pump douche who takes flights of fancy onto the world stage, the UK is not leaving for another year and it will take 2-3 for the real damage to set it, if we begin investing now we can pick most of the meat off the carcass before the others do and PT is one of our key disadvantages.

Idbatterim · 22-11-2017 6:14pm

XPS_Zero wrote: »

One of the reasons were losing out on catching rats running from the sinking HMS Brexit is our infrastructure. We were meant to have Transport 21 done and finished by now according to the original timetable , it would have been a great state jobs program (way better than bloody jobsbridge) and stimulus package during the crash, but Pascal canceled it, not understanding the difference between an investment and an expense. It would have got us more cash in the long term.

Metro North and West done, Line b2 and F in Luas done, a load of Luas extensions done, huge changes to bus network done, imagine if they'd combined that with reform of CIE? What we could have accomplished? Well it's not totally too late, we need a reshuffle first, get someone actually interested in Transport into the job not a parsh pump douche who takes flights of fancy onto the world stage, the UK is not leaving for another year and it will take 2-3 for the real damage to set it, if we begin investing now we can pick most of the meat off the carcass before the others do and PT is one of our key disadvantages.

planning still valid for the original metro north scheme. DU shelved to shelve a few mickey mouse million on enabling works :rolleyes: people deciding on where to locate their businesses or whether to move to here or other european cities, jaws must hit the floor when they see a city of over a million people, and the pathetic luas cross city that will take 27 minutes , yes 27 minutes from broombridge to St stephens green!

Praetorian · 22-11-2017 6:18pm

A continuous succession of governments don't seem to realise that infrastructure should be seen as an investment. We would be in a much better position if those large previously approved projects had gone ahead.

I've worked in the same company for 17 years. I've seen my commute go from 40 minutes, upto 1 hour, down to 25 minutes, back up again to 40 minutes, back down again to 25 minutes, now creeping back up again to the 50 minute mark.

If Metro north / quad track from Connolly etc had gone ahead as planned, , I wouldn't be in this position. Dublin would be a much better place to live and work in and our green credentials would be significantly better.

As it stands my commute will be an hour each way again in the next 2-3 years.

I don't think any of the political parties will make happen what needs to happen. I'm pretty disillusioned with it all being honest.

CJhaughey · 22-11-2017 6:43pm

The problem is vision, none of the politicians here have any at all, they are only interested in spin and their pensions.
Can you imagine any of them planning for something like Ardnacrusha let alone a public transport plan or project?
Back then the budget was 20% of the entire states annual budget, a huge sum in other words these projects are tiny in comparison.

magicbastarder · 22-11-2017 6:52pm

CJhaughey wrote: »

The problem is vision, none of the politicians here have any at all, they are only interested in spin and their pensions.
Can you imagine any of them planning for something like Ardnacrusha let alone a public transport plan or project?

partly because there's an attraction towards schemes they may actually be around to cut the ribbon for?

rebel456 · 22-11-2017 6:57pm

How are those figures arrived at, who's setting the benchmark of 1.6 billion to be invested yearly?

4 years ago was 2013 - still in the height of the recession. There just was no money to spend, and very little who would lend us money to fund fanciful new projects. We were lucky to get anything done from 2009-2015(ish). Now we can borrow a little more but restricted via the Fiscal Treaty we voted in by referendum in 2013. This limits our ability to borrow, we're already borrowing to keep the show on the road with regular spending on health, education, transport, etc. etc.

One recent article caught my eye where Pascal in a letter to Bruton (Min for Education) stated that there are now more SNA's (Special Needs Assistants) than Gardai. And the budget for special needs education surpasses the entire Third Level Education budget. Now I'm not for one minute disputing that such level of investment was not warranted, but it shows where we now spend any increase in Gov spending. If there was suddenly a billion extra to spend transport falls way down the line, and even when it does go to transport you can be damn sure Union hands will be out.

One positive from Brexit is it might give Government room to look for flexibility on the stringent borrowing rules. Most other western EU states built their mass transit infrastructure way before Ireland. These fiscal rules disadvantage our ability to catch up so some leeway needs to be sought, and might help mitigate some effects of Brexit if we can borrow to build (or dig in case of DU).

Zebra3 · 22-11-2017 7:58pm

Politicians aren’t totally stupid. But many obviously feel investing in Dublin is more a vote loser than a vote winner.

GM228 · 22-11-2017 10:18pm

Not sure where figures are pulled from, but the NTA have confirmed rail is underfunded in the Rail Review 2016.

TII recently confirmed underfunding for
roads.

The IMF reported underfunding in their recent Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) released two weeks ago.

It was also highlighted last year by the DTTAS officials apparently.

It's also I'm led to believe mentioned somewhere in the DTTAS Capital Plan 2016-2020 submission to the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform.

There is no doubt underdunding, we just can't be sure of how much.

Victor · 23-11-2017 1:36am

I did some work on this: http://www.rmo.ie/ipag-document.html - TII have an equivalent document for national roads.

Essentially, you work out the present condition and from that how much it would cost to bring the roads up to perfect maintenance. Note that a reasonable maintenance regime is not as high as perfect maintenance. If a road surface is expected to have a 20-year life and it has suffered 5 years of wear, you don't rip it all out to make it perfect - perfection is unnecessary and unsustainable financially. A better option would be to do proper patch repairs, renew road markings, etc. What you want to achieve is a steady state where things aren't getting worse, but might be getting somewhat better.

suicide_circus · 23-11-2017 10:21am

Infrastructure is simply not a vote getter.

munchkin_utd · 23-11-2017 1:09pm

suicide_circus wrote: »

Infrastructure is simply not a vote getter.

100% right, which is the great general public's fault, for wanting every more free stuff and lower and lower taxes, and vote for someone they met at a funeral because they are "sound" and from somewhere relatively nearby, rather than demanding come copped on joined up thinking and then voting for someone who offers this.

The green party in many aspects are complete nod the balls, but their policies for public transport, planning, tenants rights and a whole load of other basic quality of life things was way ahead of anyone else, and then look what happened them !

_Kaiser_ · 23-11-2017 1:28pm

To be fair, the reason people want lower taxes is because everything costs a bloody fortune in this country - forget direct taxation, it's all the other bills and charges that add up (childcare, rent, fuel, health, insurance, bins etc etc) - none of which you can do without.

This country pulls more than enough in tax from those working. The problem is that that group is continuously cut by taking more out of it (my view would be that EVERYONE should pay SOMETHING), the massive welfare bill (not even talking about JB/JA but the "add-ons"), the PS pension bill and of course pissing money away on stuff like e-voting machines that aren't fit for purpose or unnecessary rail lines in the West.

What's needed is smarter use of our taxes, not more of them.

LeinsterDub · 23-11-2017 1:44pm

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

This country pulls more than enough in tax from those working. The problem is that that group is continuously cut by taking more out of it (my view would be that EVERYONE should pay SOMETHING), the massive welfare bill (not even talking about JB/JA but the "add-ons"), the PS pension bill and of course pissing money away on stuff like e-voting machines that aren't fit for purpose or unnecessary rail lines in the West.

What's needed is smarter use of our taxes, not more of them.

http://www.publicpolicy.ie/where-does-your-tax-go/#middle-link

What do you propose cutting ? "Children", "Illness, Disability and Carers" or "Housing"?

These figures are from 2013 so "Working Age Income Supports" and "Working Age Employment Supports" figure would be significantly smaller now

Idbatterim · 23-11-2017 6:27pm

What do you propose cutting ? "Children", "Illness, Disability and Carers" or "Housing"?

These figures are from 2013 so "Working Age Income Supports" and "Working Age Employment Supports" figure would be significantly smaller now

how about not cutting them, just not increasing them? I believe welfare increases this year will cost something like E444,000,000 not just this year, but every year forward! they can pull huge sums out of their ass at the drop of a hat every budget and even more so at election time! :rolleyes:

GM228 · 23-11-2017 8:08pm

Found this April 2015 DTTAS document which confirms the €1.6bn figure.

A Strategic Framework for Investment in Land Transport - Final Report of the Steering Group (Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport

It also shows a €260M shortfall for 2014 despite an additional €156M that year, the Indo report shows a €1.3bn shortfall accumulated over 4 years meaning an average of €325M per year, if 2014 was €260M short despite a €156M extra injection I would say the figures are DTTAS figures and not the Dublin Chamber of Commerce figures.

Funding requirements for a steady state network

The average steady state cost for the transport network is estimated to be in the range of €1.6 billion per annum, for the period 2014–2016, as well as for the post-2016 period. However, when additional sources of funding are included, the average steady state cost to the Exchequer drops to €1.3 billion per annum for the period 2014–2016 and to €1.2 billion post-2016. A full background paper, which provides further detail on how steady state estimates were arrived at, is available.

It is important to consider the estimated steady state investment requirement of €1.3 billion in the context of the DTTaS capital allocation in the 2014 revised estimates volume for public services. In total, €982 million is allocated for capital across all areas of the Department in 2014, including civil aviation, land transport, maritime transport, sports and tourism. The 2014 capital allocation for road improvement/maintenance and the public transport investment programme is €880 million. As almost all road maintenance expenditure adds long-term value to the asset, an additional €154 million representing the current expenditure allocation for road improvement/maintenance is also included in the steady state figure for 2014. Accordingly, the total allocation for road improvement/maintenance and the public transport investment programme for 2014 is of the order of €1.03 billion. This is over €260 million short of the funding required to maintain the existing land transport system in an adequate condition even if the available funding is spent only on steady state.

Addressing the steady state funding shortfall

Steady state investment is based solely on existing levels of demand. Therefore, the shortfall in funding is likely to be exacerbated when future demand needs are taken into account. Furthermore, this annual underspend will result in a backlog of investment, merely to return our transport assets to their current level of performance. Given the scale of the shortfall in funding identified above and the likely impacts of future demand, there is a need to examine ways of addressing this shortfall. Four possible mechanisms, which could reduce the gap between funding required and funding available, have been identified:
Increase the efficiency of our expenditure;

Reduce the size of the funded road and rail network to a more appropriate scale;

Reduce the required level of performance required of certain assets; or

Increase the Exchequer allocation for transport and/or find alternative sources of funding.

rebel456 · 24-11-2017 1:08am

Every Government Dept is underfunded. Ask anyone who's in health or education, they'll all say they're lacking funds for x, y, z. There will never be enough funds to go around to satisfy all, even with borrowing above what we take in tax. Budgets post 2009 were essentially damage control, allocating what little we had to spend.

The public (electorate) wants schools, hospitals, SNA's etc. Thus this is where the lions share of increases in funding have been allocated since our budget has gotten back on track.

It's not all doom and gloom for transport though (when included with tourism) it got €2 billion in the most recent budget (€699m for current spending, and €1.33b for capital). There is about €7.5 billion for Dept of Transport capital spending over the next four years too.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/budget-2018-2bn-for-roads-transport-and-boosting-tourism-1.3247376

€1.3bn shortfall in transport spending

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