Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

looks like the following week is going to be wetter than average according to the ECM.

Increasing signs too of the Atlantic regaining control over Ireland from this weekend and into next week with plenty of cool and unsettled weather.



This Saturday is starting to trend towards a nationwide washout with the first Atlantic front in almost 4 months rolling through the country.





The possibility of more bands of heavy rain moving south-west to north-east next week with western half of the country most at risk from rain.

Supercell wrote: »

I was just thinking the same Gonzo when looking at the fax charts this morning, looks like the Atlantic is back from this weekend (maybe) ..if it plays out like programmed, haven't seen a chart like it in a long time.

This does look likely, however it could still go wrong if the low pressures tracks a bit further north and west than expected.

I do think we will be more unsettled generally but I don't think this is going to lead to a write-off summer, this may be just for a week to 10 days. Eastern areas may not see the second band of rain early next week as an east/west split may take place, it will depends on the tracking of these lows and any possible influence from the Azores over south-eastern areas.

If it does pour rain all Saturday and early next week definitely make the most of that rain as it may not continue week after week.

Neddyusa wrote: »

Similar charts have appeared at >5 days over the past few months and when the day came the rain fronts were actually 300 miles further west.

Are these fronts forecast to track all the way across to the east of GB??

Because I think thats the sort of margin of error we need to be sure that they dont just end up brushing our West coast

It's still a bit of a guess game with this weekend. Current guidance with the GFS is showing the low deepening and passing just to our northwest with some very strong winds wrapped around it. It could be fairly warm ahead of the front but turning cooler from Saturday evening into Sunday. At the moment the front is projected to pass through Ireland then up the western seaboard of UK and on into Scotland.

South-eastern parts of the UK may escape this one entirely with some very warm or hot weather there but even that is not guaranteed. I am hoping that this low pressure will push a bit further north earlier than expected leaving Ireland on the warmer and dryer side with the Azores High ridging in after.



Still 3 to 4 days to go with this one so the track of the low and it's influence on Ireland and the UK is still to be locked in, so expect a few more changes between now and then.

This mornings ECM is a bit different, it is keeping the low further west with Leinster staying warm or possibly very warm in places with a bit of influence from that azores. ECM will update in the next few hours and this may change again.



UKMO brings the low in over us but it quickly moves out of the way and we get an extension of the Azores on Monday but this may only be brief.



All to play for still. Basically a shift further east or west by 200 miles will make a massive difference with this one. I feel the north-western half of Ireland will definitely get some influence from this, i'm not so sure yet about the south and east, we may only get a brief brushing with warmer weather either side of the front.

The one thing I don't want to happen is for the low to get stuck close to or over Ireland for days with nowhere to go with several passings of rainbands through Ireland from Saturday and throughout the following week. I wouldn't mind one day of rain from this as long as it moves quickly out of the way and we go back to fine and settled conditions.

no shortage of rain over the next week.

Tomorrow could be a washout in many places with 20 to 30mm of rainfall expected.



Saturday into Sunday brings a nationwide washout across all parts of the country. 40 to 50mm of rain could happen in places over the weekend.



Sunday see's showers mainly in the west, some of these could be heavy.

Monday and we're back to another nationwide fall of rain, probably not as heavy as the weekend rain.



50 to 70mm of rain can be expected in many areas between now and Sunday evening if the models verify.

Farmer2017 wrote: »

What next week looking like

Plenty of rain over the next 4 to 5 days starting from tomorrow.

I am hoping this unsettled spell lasts a week tops, by then everyone should be well recovered from the drought. Last thing most of us want is the Atlantic on steroids for the rest of the summer. It won't take many weeks of Atlantic weather before farmers start crying out for dry weather again.

Plenty of rain tomorrow particularly the eastern half of the country. Friday might be a dryer interlude. Saturday and Sunday will be very wet across all parts of the country with a considerable dumping of rain. Monday most likely will see another spell of moderate rain across all parts. It looks like staying unsettled after next Monday with rain or showers at times.

pauldry wrote: »

The forecast for Sligo seems wrong every day. Sunny today. I thought sun was for east and south.

But yes Atlantic will definitely bring rain here. Just how much. I'll keep ye updated. Maybe this thread will be far far down the threads this time next week

From Saturday rain will be much more evenly distributed across the country as bands of rain and showers will cross the country from the west. The Atlantic certainly looks like it is going to take over our weather for the next week. However the Azores high will ridge across England and Wales and extend up towards Scandinavia over the next week, there is a chance this ridging could affect Ireland at some point, but right now this is beginning to look alot like last summer where Ireland isn't going to be left alone from the Atlantic and us missing out on that lovely Azores ridge for the time being.

It is uncertain how long this unsettled spell will go on for but I am hoping that we see a resuming of the dry and settled conditions by the end of the month, we could all be well sick of the rain by that stage.