Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

TTLF · 09-02-2021 8:11pm

esposito wrote: »

And bloody exhausting!

Very true, this low has been a real headache and a real complex situation, I haven't model watched this much since 2018 when I got into knowing the GFS/ECM etc. But the upside to that is my distraction from the real grim news in the world, I don't think I've actually went on Twitter the last week, or kept up to date much with the Leaving Cert debacle I'm in, which in the end, turned out to be for the better because I'm not feeling as "depressed" as I was 2 weeks ago.

:pac::D

This low though, is a real pain in the butt to put it lightly. :pac:

Cluedo Monopoly · 09-02-2021 8:15pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Precipitation(light snow) for Galway, my location specifically, has reduced to 4 hours on Thursday now according to meteireann, sleet has dissapeared, big change again. Max temps for the weekend down to 4/5 across the country. Will the low stay away altogether and leave us dry on Thursday/Friday...?

Where are you seeing 4 hours?

typhoony · 09-02-2021 8:25pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Precipitation(light snow) for Galway, my location specifically, has reduced to 4 hours on Thursday now according to meteireann, sleet has dissapeared, big change again. Max temps for the weekend down to 4/5 across the country. Will the low stay away altogether and leave us dry on Thursday/Friday...?

ECM has the milder air push through the whole of the UK by Sunday.

esposito · 09-02-2021 8:26pm

typhoony wrote: »

ECM has the milder air push through the whole of the UK by Sunday.

Depressing. Hopefully we will have another cold blast before March.

DOCARCH · 09-02-2021 8:27pm

typhoony wrote: »

ECM has the milder air push through the whole of the UK by Sunday.

That would be some consolation. If we can't have it....

TECH85 · 09-02-2021 8:28pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

ECM has the front only making it as far as a line from Dublin to Sligo. Turning to rain behind a line from west Waterford to Clifden. In between that zone some places see up to 14-15 hours of snow in to Friday morning with the heaviest precip in the south-east and also Galway and Mayo for a time.

6PM

11PM

Sweet , according to that south east Tipperary / kilkenny area should do pretty well for snow ?!

Nqp15hhu · 09-02-2021 8:28pm

Why is the Met Office automated forecast completely different to the GFS?

Gonzo · 09-02-2021 8:31pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Why is the Met Office automated forecast completely different to the GFS?

Met Eireann forecasts are based upon the ECM, they don't forecast on GFS models.

Rebelbrowser · 09-02-2021 8:32pm

Just to illustrate that you never know what will happen when a low comes up against a block, see the below charts from 0z on 10 and 11 Jan 2010. A very different set up to the present (not an Atlantic low) but this low coming up from the south was supposed to travel up the length of the country dropping its load as snow everywhere, albeit in Cork it would possibly be a snow to rain to event. Alas the front got about as far as Mitchelstown (causing huge consternation amongst non Cork folk) and dropped tiny droplets of snow over Cork for about 11 hours before migrating south of Ireland again. It had dropped a good 6 or 7 cm throughout Cork before leaving thus ending the Great Cork Snow Drought (2004 - 2010).

That won't happen again but just an illustration of the fact that you never know....

Rougies · 09-02-2021 8:33pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Why is the Met Office automated forecast completely different to the GFS?

Because they don't use the GFS, they use their own Unified Model.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Model
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-systems/unified-model/index

redsteveireland · 09-02-2021 8:39pm

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Where are you seeing 4 hours?

On their 5 day Outlook section, but that may be as reliable as a phone app I suspect, it changes constantly.

murfo · 09-02-2021 8:39pm

Steopo wrote: »

I know this chart comes with a load of caveats and model accuracy can vary from run to run or event to event but it's useful to show that models are getting more accurate over time but Day 10, 7, 5 are still a long way off having 100% correlation with the final outcome. It shows anomaly correlation between forecasted and verified outcomes for ECM.

So did everyone working for the ECM go to the pub for the whole of 1997 or what?

And '99

Seriously though, were those years just full of exceptional weather events or something?

nacho libre · 09-02-2021 8:59pm

Make the most of this snow event if it happens, because on present guidance the outlook is bleak, if it's more snow you're after.

TheMilkyPirate · 09-02-2021 8:59pm

TECH85 wrote: »

Sweet , according to that south east Tipperary / kilkenny area should do pretty well for snow ?!

On current guidance yes

average_runner · 09-02-2021 9:06pm

So the snow event for Dublin is gone?

Donegal Ken · 09-02-2021 9:24pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Met Eireann forecasts are based upon the ECM, they don't forecast on GFS models.

There forecast update tomorrow morning will be based on the Harmonie model with it been inside the 54hrs range.

Hopefully its the same as the current GFS runs

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2021 9:31pm

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

jackrussel · 09-02-2021 9:33pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

You need to stop. Nothing you say ever happens

gerrybhoy · 09-02-2021 9:34pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

The south of Ireland or Southern Ireland?

aisling86 · 09-02-2021 9:35pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

For my location it's holding steady at about 12cm over 12hrs the last 48hrs on ECM. Really hoping it materialises even if it does melt overnight unti Friday all we want is a few hours!

Darwin · 09-02-2021 9:42pm

BBC forecast is here:

https://www.bbc.com/weather/forecast-video/21416743

See around 1.28 in to see the forecast snowfall for Ireland on Thursday.

rooney30 · 09-02-2021 9:45pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

Zero chance of this . Red means the whole country shuts down . Oh wait !!!!

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2021 9:48pm

Look at this scenario. North of Mitchelstown the main Cork Dublin motorway goes through very high ground. This area is going to be plastered with snow and I predict the road will have to close. Is anyone telling me that such an event is not equal to a red warning.
Answer is yes of course it is

Davaeo09 · 09-02-2021 9:52pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Look at this scenario. North of Mitchelstown the main Cork Dublin motorway goes through very high ground. This area is going to be plastered with snow and I predict the road will have to close. Is anyone telling me that such an event is not equal to a red warning.
Answer is yes of course it is

That area was my thoughts exactly. Cahir, Cashel, over the Commins will be pasted. The thing is I've seen this as the worst effected area since I began watching this.
It is one of the first places it arrives "intense" and one of the last places it will turn to rain.
From there over to about Carlow/Athy

typhoony · 09-02-2021 9:53pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

That's a brave call but it's not supported by ECM or UKMO, GFS is slightly in your favour but only slightly

Kunta Kinte · 09-02-2021 9:53pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

A very brave prediction. Very little chance of it happening but we live in hope I suppose.

Reckless Abandonment · 09-02-2021 9:55pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

indonesia gif

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2021 9:58pm

Davaeo09 wrote: »

That area was my thoughts exactly. Cahir, Cashel, over the Commins will be pasted. The thing is I've seen this as the worst effected area since I began watching this.
It is one of the first places it arrives "intense" and one of the last places it will turn to rain.
From there over to about Carlow/Athy

Yes my area is more chance of marginal but the areas you mention above are the bullseye hours and hours of snow!!

Humberto Salazar · 09-02-2021 10:01pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a red warning for the South of Ireland.
Heres why,

- The southwest of England is going to see extremely low temps Wed night. This is where our feed of air is coming from Thursday morning as the rain nudges up. -6 is forecast for places like Cornwall. The forecasted uppers emphasise this as they actually get colder through the day when you would expect them to rise
-The ppn will move up over the South and stall. Favoured spots are looking at perhaps 12 hours of heavy snow. 12hours is exceptional!!
- The beeb are showing all snow for the South of Ireland through Thursday. The front doesn't turn to rain it evaporates from the cold. Take a look at their video it's very like 2018 from the pov of predicted snow.

So in summary yes mild is coming but it's such a slow process that serious snow dumping is most likely across the South on Thursday and for me it's code red!

Desperation takes many forms...

Kermit.de.frog · 09-02-2021 10:02pm

18z ICON has moved a bit to the GFS. Precip extends a bit further north Thursday/Friday. Interesting because ECM tends to track ICON fairly closely in my experience. A small step but we need a bit more.

Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

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