FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Tyrone212 · 06-02-2021 8:04am

Ecm summary
A few light flurries for areas exposed to an Easterly and bone dry for the rest of the country until a frontal system crosses the country later in the week.

bazlers · 06-02-2021 8:25am

bazlers wrote: »

Im also looking at that beautiful scandi high for post break down ; )

I did tell ye it would show its beautiful blue and purple head :cool:

Humberto Salazar · 06-02-2021 8:27am

ECM FI thankfully doesn't drop the High into Europe fully. There is potential there for another easterly in 8 or 9 days, but it's too early to say.

bazlers · 06-02-2021 8:53am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You don't go to Russia, Russia comes to you :eek:

If you could get the alignment to turn a notch to twenty to
rather than twenty five to it would be a dream maker and a snow maker. Even as it is nice. Too early for another roller coaster surely! (Yes way too early)
Nice to see though. Potential.

sean555 · 06-02-2021 11:31am

Quick reload? The 06z thinks so anyway.

Strangegravy · 06-02-2021 11:37am

bazlers wrote: »

I did tell ye it would show its beautiful blue and purple head :cool:

... ThAt'S wHaT sHe sAiD!!!

Kermit.de.frog · 06-02-2021 11:41am

This Scandi high is exerting more and more influence. Atlantic struggling to break this down now

gerrybhoy · 06-02-2021 11:44am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This Scandi high is exerting more and more influence. Atlantic struggling to break this down now

That good?

Billcarson · 06-02-2021 11:45am

I'd gladly sacrifice any prolonged spells of snow from the Atlantic if the cold spell lasted longer and the Atlantic stayed away ta f***.

JCX BXC · 06-02-2021 11:47am

gerrybhoy wrote: »

That good?

Indeed it is, the Atlantic is having real trouble exerting it's dominance and the ECM seems to extend the cold spell slightly each run. The Scandi high appears to be stubborn and refusing to let the Atlantic win.

gerrybhoy · 06-02-2021 11:50am

JCX BXC wrote: »

Indeed it is, the Atlantic is having real trouble exerting it's dominance and the ECM seems to extend the cold spell slightly each run. The Scandi high appears to be stubborn and refusing to let the Atlantic win.

That's the content I'm here for,simple explanation much appreciated

Kermit.de.frog · 06-02-2021 12:06pm

We have finally crossed the rubicon. The GFS control run does not let go of the cold continental air in the country and the main event is being primed

My instinct, given the trends, is that there won't be a mild spell at all. Quite the opposite.

bazlers · 06-02-2021 12:09pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We have finally crossed the rubicon. The GFS control run does not let go of the cold continental air in the country and the main event is being primed

My instinct, given the trends, is that there won't be a mild spell at all. Quite the opposite.

Now thats the s$%t im talkin bout

munsterlegend · 06-02-2021 12:10pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We have finally crossed the rubicon. The GFS control run does not let go of the cold continental air in the country and the main event is being primed

My instinct, given the trends, is that there won't be a mild spell at all. Quite the opposite.

The met office advised yesterday they expected a milder interlude. Will be interesting to see their updates over the next day or two.

lucernarian · 06-02-2021 12:12pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We have finally crossed the rubicon. The GFS control run does not let go of the cold continental air in the country and the main event is being primed

I see tags for two images in the quote but I only saw one chart, which showed 0 degree uppers over almost the entire island. It does set up a lot of reload potential right after that point though.

Also, what is the GFS para saying? It's supposed to be the higher-res model and was holding the course when the control sometimes wrote off the potential next week with overblown lows.

ninebeanrows · 06-02-2021 12:13pm

Remember with a nice continental feed 850hPa temps largely become irrelevant for surface cold.

Nqp15hhu · 06-02-2021 12:14pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We have finally crossed the rubicon. The GFS control run does not let go of the cold continental air in the country and the main event is being primed

My instinct, given the trends, is that there won't be a mild spell at all. Quite the opposite.

That’s great but that “easterly” has a southern tilt to it. The kind that skirts through only SE England.

It’s best to have those up around Scandinavia.

Strangegravy · 06-02-2021 12:17pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We have finally crossed the rubicon. The GFS control run does not let go of the cold continental air in the country and the main event is being primed

My instinct, given the trends, is that there won't be a mild spell at all. Quite the opposite.

It's actually been fascinating watching the cold and mild battle around the 144hrs mark over the last few days. It's like George R. R. Martin's Song of Fire and Ice, except for weather enthusiasts...

gerrybhoy · 06-02-2021 12:21pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We have finally crossed the rubicon. The GFS control run does not let go of the cold continental air in the country and the main event is being primed

My instinct, given the trends, is that there won't be a mild spell at all. Quite the opposite.

Who needs viagra,Kermit gets the blood pumping into your plums!

bazlers · 06-02-2021 12:22pm

Chances of a battle ground scenario with Cold gaining dominance? I said before i couldnt see that happening but latest run id give it a 50/50 chance.

Kermit.de.frog · 06-02-2021 12:29pm

...

Strangegravy · 06-02-2021 12:33pm

lucernarian wrote: »

Also, what is the GFS para saying? It's supposed to be the higher-res model and was holding the course when the control sometimes wrote off the potential next week with overblown lows.

It's been over 24 hours since it's updated, so can't tell the recent output unfortunately.

Calibos · 06-02-2021 12:35pm

When ye talk about 'Battleground' Scenario, are ye simply talking about the Mild air not pushing out the Cold THurs to Saturday. ie. We stay on the cold side ready for a reload of even more Deep cold from the East. Whatever fell Sun Night to Wednesday from Streamers and THursday from that low might not thaw much because that Spanish Plume is no longer going to make much progress on Saturday??

Or is 'Battleground' implying another Frontal Snow event for the weekend??

space2ground1 · 06-02-2021 12:43pm

Can I ask do current precip models have the capability to attempt predictions on Irish Sea streamers? In Waterford we've seen heavy snow in the past bubble up and come across Rosslare into Waterford City and West Waterford. I'm not sure I'd see that kind of precip on current charts though?

bazlers · 06-02-2021 12:56pm

Calibos wrote: »

When ye talk about 'Battleground' Scenario, are ye simply talking about the Mild air not pushing out the Cold THurs to Saturday. ie. We stay on the cold side ready for a reload of even more Deep cold from the East. Whatever fell Sun Night to Wednesday from Streamers and THursday from that low might not thaw much because that Spanish Plume is no longer going to make much progress on Saturday??

Or is 'Battleground' implying another Frontal Snow event for the weekend??

For me this is what im implying. My tiny brain will try and put it into words.
90% of the time in ireland if you get a warm front coming up against cold dominated weather the Mild winds. So on the leading edge of that front you get snow quickly turning to rain and what snow that has settled will melt like a 99 in an Australian bush fire.... what im implying is that there is a better than average chance that the warm front could stall over the country releasing its mother load ie. Snow then the cold air wins the battle leaving the lovely snow intact for us to prance about in glee in

JCX BXC · 06-02-2021 1:03pm

space2ground1 wrote: »

Can I ask do current precip models have the capability to attempt predictions on Irish Sea streamers? In Waterford we've seen heavy snow in the past bubble up and come across Rosslare into Waterford City and West Waterford. I'm not sure I'd see that kind of precip on current charts though?

The streamers question up to wednesday is out of the scope of this thread (-120) however I find the charts never fully appreciate the extent of Irish Sea streamers. If they appear on the charts, in my opinion, should be taken as only an indication that they may appear. The extent and intensity of these will only be fully realised on the rainfall radar on the time of their occurence.

TheMilkyPirate · 06-02-2021 1:07pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

That’s great but that “easterly” has a southern tilt to it. The kind that skirts through only SE England.

It’s best to have those up around Scandinavia.

C'mon Nqp that chart is for 8 days away it's obvious Kermit doesn't expect it to verify as it looks now. Trends..

Rebelbrowser · 06-02-2021 1:22pm

bazlers wrote: »

Chances of a battle ground scenario with Cold gaining dominance? I said before i couldnt see that happening but latest run id give it a 50/50 chance.

Only looking at the gfs 6z now. That's sone turnaround. I thought Met E were making fools of themselves yesterday briefing local authority's on snow risk late next week but clearly they know more than we do (that'll be the years of training and working professionally in the field and access to other models I suppose!) and I do think there is a real possibility of the models flipping big time for later next week and this being a 10 day event starting tomorrow with serious snow for everyone (though we on the south coast the most likely to see some rain mixed with snow) later next week. Til then I reckon everywhere near the coast from Cork to Antrim will see snow from streamers. Happy, happy, days...

squarecircles · 06-02-2021 1:29pm

im liking the 'HEAVY SNOW' symbol on the Met Eireann app for my location on Thursday in west Mayo,it will probably change numerous times of course.

John.Icy · 06-02-2021 1:43pm

Very interesting output this morning now around the Day 8-10 range. Of course Scandi highs can be frustrating as a lot has to got right for you to not end up dry with a SE'rly (at least for a few days ala BFTE 2018 while things get into position) but...

Can't win the lotto without having a ticket.

Some savage cold pooling in FI out East.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST