Cold throughout the coming week.Snow for some

SpitfireIV · 05-02-2007 9:57pm

Did anyone catch the weather after the 6/1 news? Guess not or there would have been talk of it

I missed it unfortunately.

arctictree · 05-02-2007 10:04pm

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Did anyone catch the weather after the 6/1 news? Guess not or there would have been talk of it I missed it unfortunately.

Here it is:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0205/6news_av.html?2216281,null,230

A

SpitfireIV · 05-02-2007 10:12pm

arctictree wrote:

Here it is:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0205/6news_av.html?2216281,null,230

A

Very good, thanks artictree! So basically they dont know what is gonna happen after Wednesday, they're keeping there mouths shut

......he did mention 'sleety rain' on Thursday........thats no fun

arctictree · 05-02-2007 10:20pm

Yeah - they are still sitting on the fence.

Lets see what he says at 9:30. Either way, I'd say tomorrow we'll know.

A

lucernarian · 05-02-2007 10:21pm

I saw that forecast and he seemed unwilling to mention anything about snow. The "sleety rain" phrase cropped up more than once. He was fairly honest about the met's lack of knowledge about the occluded front, which was a brave thing to admit IMO. It was a suprise to see such a limited possibility forecast as I had seen the UKMO output only an hour or so previously, which is quite bullish for snow.

We'll see what the next forecast brings, in a few minutes. I'd say it will be a short forecast.

lucernarian · 05-02-2007 10:30pm

At least the Eagle mentioned the S word this time... They're not ignoring the UKMO output.

arctictree · 05-02-2007 10:33pm

I think it all depends on exactly what latitude that LP will be at on Thurs.

According to met.ie, its sitting right over the country. We need it to move south a little I'd say.

A

nacho libre · 05-02-2007 10:40pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Some of the greatest charts i have ever witnessed were churned out from the UKM a few moments ago..

At T+48 - T+84

Low approaches the southwest approaches, slip north battered back by cold.. high precip rates.. Heavy snow for many areas north of the south coast.. Cold easterly tracking back after snow clears..

Snowfall totals hard to guess at this rate but we aint talking about a few cm's anyway were talking about a whole lot more if this can hold on its path..

Perhaps the best thing is the snow is set to arrive around 5am Thursday morning.. no day heat .. nightime lows..

I can spell it.. But lets not get ahead of ourselves..

But we must now begin warning the public.

I will begin issuing my thoughts on the matter on my site shortly and of course here too..

yes. certainly it looks promising for most of Connacht, North Munster and parts of Leinster after watching tonights forecast.

Of course the front could easily travel too far north meaning no snow

ninebeanrows · 05-02-2007 11:04pm

There is one thing certain!

Rain, Sleet and Snow will push north during Wednesday!

Models are disagreeing at T+48hrs with quite big details!!

Hopefully it will be sorted in the morning! Oh havent we said that before!:o

lucernarian · 05-02-2007 11:10pm

I wouldn't worry about it travelling too far north if I were you; I was having a look at the polar jet charts earlier on and it would steer the LPs further south if anything. On the other hand, the development of the HP is a little shaky and at the moment there is no significant HP in the north sea/scandy. I've seen GFS 18z up to 66 hours and it's looking more progressive than earlier, though it seems that the chance of transitional snow is certainly still strong.

I wouldn't have so much faith in the development of the HP by t+120 like the Met Office model had. A channel low being squeezed by a strong anticyclone is a little too hopeful. But mabye the HP will develop strongly anyway with the absent polar jet, I don't know. It's hard to say.

Danno · 06-02-2007 12:01am

Was 18z a bit of a backtrack?

06-02-2007 12:14am

Danno,I expect you to have a lot of snow if these systems take the right track.
You should have a good several hours of the stuff,more than in recent years.

As for the GFS-theres no such thing as a back track or upgrade or anything like that at the moment, theres so much chopping and changing and uncertainty.

To cut a long story short, if you want to know the weather at the moment,you'll have to do it like it was done in the 80's ie watch the TV bulletins.

Hopefully you will see a strong high appear over northern Norway stretching out to Iceland and into Siberia... on some chart or other the Eagle displays.

Villain · 06-02-2007 12:27am

Met Talking about possible snow on Thursday on RTE weather now, stressing its unsure though!

06-02-2007 12:36am

There should be lots of snow in Tullow aswell.
Thursday will be very interesting.

The uncertainty now is mainly in how fast the front will progress.
Current indications suggest to me that it will be slow enough for a good dumping in the midlands North and in the East.
The East though only away from the coast and on higher ground,though I wouldnt rule out something for the coast or lower ground in the East either,though they are less favoured.

The uncertainty though could also mean the front mightnt progress far north at all in which case , there'll be nothing untill the next attempt at the weekend apart from coastal showers that is.

Scubadevils · 06-02-2007 12:41am

Tristrame (where did the old Earthman name go?

),

When you say away from the coast, how far?

Re elevation, I tried to check my elevation before on a site I saw posted on TWO but it didnt cover Lusk :rolleyes: Rush however was about 27m from what I remember, pretty low and I would suspect Lusk is even lower.

darkman2 · 06-02-2007 12:46am

I agree completely - this is incredibly uncertain atm. Good news is that UKMO 18z 48hr chart is identical to the 12z chart. Bad news - we need better agreement between the models. Still up in the air. We could get anythng from a 1980's style snow event to a 90s style let down. Either way I fully expect clarity in the models tomorrow for better or worse becuase the current situation 48hrs out is frankly rediculous.

Scubadevils · 06-02-2007 12:49am

I'd say a late night for a few anyway come Wednesday night

darkman2 · 06-02-2007 12:52am

Id imagine so if the UKMO is right! They seem to be really pushing this.

BTW what did the Eagle say on the late weather?

Villain · 06-02-2007 12:52am

Now Tristrame why did you have to go and say that it will probably miss Tullow now

Well I said after the last cold spell that I always believed February was our best chance of snow and if this doesn't give us anything I wouldn't give up just yet, I remember my father telling me years ago that back in the 70's I think it was it snowed in February and it was still there until Paddy's Day! Ok unlikely now I know but February does seem to have been the best months in the last few years with break down event which gave nice snow but usually didn't last long.

If and its a big if we get some lying snow Thursday how long before it melts away in your opinion's?

06-02-2007 12:54am

Felixdhc wrote:

Tristrame (where did the old Earthman name go? ),

When you say away from the coast, how far? I tried to check my elevation before on a site I saw posted on TWO but it didnt cover Lusk :rolleyes: Rush however was about 27m from what I remember, pretty low and I would suspect Lusk is even lower.

I'm trying to be on sebattical from boards at the moment for various reasons,but the smell of snow brought me back temporarally.

High ground is by my definition anywhere above 600ft above sea level.
So I wouldnt count Lusk or my location in that.
With marginal temps and dewpoints 500ft can make all the difference between sleet falling or snow falling.
It can also make the difference between snow falling and snow sticking.
Ie it could be snowing wet at elevation 0 but snowing dryer at elevation 600ft due to even a 0.5c temp difference and sticking as a consequence.

I'd also include in my definition of "high ground" lower elevations that are a good bit inland or lower elevations(of more than 300 -400 ft) that are nestled in between ground much higher than that.
By a good bit inland,I mean more than 5 miles and preferably closer to 10 miles or more,though 7 or 8 will do.

Snowbie · 06-02-2007 12:56am

Google Earth helps.Gives you everything you need,height lat,lon.You can even peer into your neighbours back garden.

OT-very marginal for snow across the country depending on the North south movement on the occlusion.It not possible to tell now what part of the country it will straddle.If you draw a line across from Dublin to Galway,here south will snowy apart from my beloved coastline and draw a line from Arklow across to limerick any south of this will be rain.

This is an indication of about a 60mile wide rectangle across the country.If occlusion moves north so those the rectangle move and moves south well look for the towns located in it.No need to look out here at our sany beaches near my coastline.Howth summit here i go yet again.

06-02-2007 12:59am

darkman2 wrote:

BTW what did the Eagle say on the late weather?

Didn't see it but his 930 was rampier than his 630 which suggest that Glasnevin are seriously considering a wide spread snow event.

@ Irish1 Going on information to date, if the system moves up over Ireland you should have lying snow in Tullow on thursday before heavy rain washes it away.
At what point it washes it away I havent got a clue! except to sy it will be or should be rain from milder air on the SAME front ie the snow falling will have changed back to rain.

Several factors could delay the mild or fast track it though.
Best guess now is for snow for a while , settling goodo with you and then gone.

Mightnt happen though at all untill the weekend, it is so uncertain.

Scubadevils · 06-02-2007 12:59am

Tristrame wrote:

I'm trying to be on sebattical from boards at the moment for various reasons,but the smell of snow brought me back temporarally.

High ground is by my definition anywhere above 600ft above sea level.
So I wouldnt count Lusk or my location in that.
With marginal temps and dewpoints 500ft can make all the difference between sleet falling or snow falling.
It can also make the difference between snow falling and snow sticking.
Ie it could be snowing wet at elevation 0 but snowing dryer at elevation 600ft due to even a 0.5c temp difference and sticking as a consequence.

I'd also include in my definition of "high ground" lower elevations that are a good bit inland or lower elevations(of more than 300 -400 ft) that are nestled in between ground much higher than that.
By a good bit inland,I mean more than 5 miles and preferably closer to 10 miles or more,though 7 or 8 will do.

Cheers, so basically I'm in a pretty poor location for snow

Snowbie · 06-02-2007 1:04am

Try that upside down water tower in portrane thats high ground,:eek: i be on howth feeling the breeze.Ill flash the lights a couple of times at you:D Ill bring the rain gauge and my waterproof jacket and a kite.

Snowbie · 06-02-2007 1:11am

Will you look at that Snow symbol on VP2 at 1.6c and all important DP -1.5c.Oh where is the front now,before darn easterly takes hold:rolleyes:

06-02-2007 1:13am

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4.gif

Latest UKMO fax for saturday where they think we'll all be in the mild except Scotland by then.

Given the current uncertainty-I don't think so.

Night night folks

06-02-2007 1:14am

Snowbie wrote:

Will you look at that Snow symbol on VP2 at 1.6c and all important DP -1.5c.Oh where is the front now,before darn easterly takes hold:rolleyes:

hehe
SEE that.
Mines got the snow symbol too with a current temp of 0.5c and a dp of -1.9c

seriously nn now

Snowbie · 06-02-2007 1:16am

tooddle pip

Scubadevils · 06-02-2007 1:17am

Snowbie wrote:

Try that upside down water tower in portrane thats high ground,:eek: i be on howth feeling the breeze.Ill flash the lights a couple of times at you:D Ill bring the rain gauge and my waterproof jacket and a kite.

If it is snowing somewhere near, I will hunt it down, Howth might be a good bet alright...might take a spin up that way too

I was in D13 for all the nice snow events of the 80's, seemed a good location for it back then, although I'm sure pretty much anywhere was. Little did I feckin know back then that it would be the last I would see of it, glad I disobeyed my mother and stayed out till my face was blue :eek: Then sat at the superser (spelling? do they even exist anymore?)

Sorry, rambling off topic

Scubadevils · 06-02-2007 1:23am

Oh and a google earth reveals that I am at an extreme height of 21m, lucky I'm not afraid of heights

Finally, recent reports on met.ie have 1mm snow on Malin Head

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Cold throughout the coming week.Snow for some

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