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Hurricane GONZALO

maquiladora · 2014-10-15 09:44:28

Gonzalo is a major hurricane forecast to track close to Bermuda.

15-10-2014 10:44am

#1

maquiladora

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Gonzalo is a major hurricane forecast to track close to Bermuda.

5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 15
Location: 22.9°N 67.3°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

10

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#2 15-10-2014 1:09pm

hatrickpatrick

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NCHurricane2009 whose blog I follow every year (fantastic analyses of the Atlantic during hurricane seasons) predicted a couple of days ago that it would reach category 5, although he has backed down from that intensity forecast since.

http://ido.wunderground.com/blog/NCHurricane2009/comment.html?entrynum=518

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#3 15-10-2014 5:10pm

maquiladora

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Gonzalo is now a Cat 4 hurricane, the strongest storm since 2011.

11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 15
Location: 23.5°N 68.0°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

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#4 16-10-2014 6:37am

M.T. Cranium

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Most recent model runs show the remnants racing east across (northern areas) Ireland and Britain early Tuesday 21st. Would expect gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed areas, 15-25 mm rainfalls, but temperatures will be far too mild for snow, around 12-15 C. A significant event but hardly a "monster hurricane" at that point.

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#5 16-10-2014 10:55am

maquiladora

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^^ Those images are of the large north Atlantic low, not hurricane Gonzalo.

The official forecast track takes it only about 20km west of Bermuda.

Re-gained Cat 4 status this morning.

5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 16
Location: 25.3°N 68.7°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

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#6 16-10-2014 11:10am

Cantona's Collars

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maquiladora wrote: »

^^ Those images are of the large north Atlantic low, not hurricane Gonzalo.

The official forecast track takes it only about 20km west of Bermuda.

Re-gained Cat 4 status this morning.

Lol,UK press using false reporting to big up a story,who'd have thought.:rolleyes:

I was wondering that all right when I looked at them,it must have been the fastest moving storm in history to get that far northwest so quickly.

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#7 16-10-2014 12:16pm

Lumi

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Mod Note
The Daily Express articles on Hurricane Gonzalo have been moved into the Tabloid Thread
They were bringing this thread a wee bit off topic but feel free to comment/snigger away at them over there

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#8 16-10-2014 2:09pm

RED L4 0TH

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Gonzalo at midday.

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#9 16-10-2014 5:54pm

maquiladora

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A wet and blustery day for us next week courtesy of then ex-Gonzalo on the 12Z GFS.

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#10 16-10-2014 7:40pm

maquiladora

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Gonzalo is the strongest hurricane since 2010 now. Just 12 mph under Cat 5 status. The latest forecast track is virtually directly over Bermuda.

2:00 PM AST Thu Oct 16
Location: 26.5°N 68.5°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

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#11 17-10-2014 4:49pm

maquiladora

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Gonzalo is approaching Bermuda this evening. Good webcam here. Looking very windy already : http://portbermudawebcam.com/

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#12 17-10-2014 5:42pm

Rikand

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maquiladora wrote: »

A wet and blustery day for us next week courtesy of then ex-Gonzalo on the 12Z GFS.

A cold windy day ahead for sure

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#13 17-10-2014 8:16pm

maquiladora

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Looking really wild on the webcam now.

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#14 17-10-2014 8:26pm

bnt

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The Bermuda Weather Service Radar looked like this a few hours ago :eek:

Eyewall about 35 miles across, according to Weather Underground.

Death has this much to be said for it:
You don’t have to get out of bed for it.
Wherever you happen to be
They bring it to you—free.
— Kingsley Amis

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#15 17-10-2014 8:29pm

royalflush2003

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Nice webcam , looks like Greystones lol

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#16 17-10-2014 8:47pm

Stella Virgo

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brilliant web cam .wet n wild in bermuda now ! :P

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#17 17-10-2014 9:24pm

Aerohead

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Stella Virgo wrote: »

brilliant web cam .wet n wild in bermuda now ! :P

Hope that tug boat is well secured in that wind

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#18 17-10-2014 9:35pm

leinad

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unbelievable web cam footage any idea of windspeed at that location?

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#19 17-10-2014 9:46pm

Aerohead

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leinad wrote: »

unbelievable web cam footage any idea of windspeed at that location?

Try here

http://www.weather.bm/observations.asp

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#20 17-10-2014 10:00pm

Hal1

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The webcam in port bermuda is streaming live on youtube. They have added a link on top of the main page.

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#21 17-10-2014 10:20pm

Faustino

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Unreal footage, the wind is relentless!

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#22 17-10-2014 10:28pm

Hal1

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Sounds like a jet afterburner. The seas are fairly choppy now, and won't be long till it breaches the sea wall. A direct hit forecast, hopefully those who stayed will be alright.

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#23 17-10-2014 11:42pm

RED L4 0TH

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Image at 10pm.

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#24 17-10-2014 11:53pm

RED L4 0TH

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Latest radar image. Viewing the animated loop, it looks like the eye will pass right over the island.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

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#25 18-10-2014 12:24am

sunbabe08

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Watching the web cam on youtube. that wind is scary

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#26 18-10-2014 12:39am

elecktras weather bomb

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THIS IS VERY SCARY to watch. this is a lot bigger than sandy . would it do as much if not more damage than sandy? there is a few super cells thrown in for good measure. hope anyone that stayed is ok.

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#27 18-10-2014 12:58am

RED L4 0TH

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sunbabe08 wrote: »

Watching the web cam on youtube. that wind is scary

The northern part of the eye should be reaching the island now looking at the latest radar loop. The winds might drop away soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsKPEx3fgHU

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#28 18-10-2014 8:22am

RuthieRose

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Hurricane!! Where??? ðŸ˜႒ beautiful morning in Cavan. Happy Saturday everyone!!

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#29 18-10-2014 2:21pm

Aerohead

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Don't know why the warning about heavy rain and flooding in the South and West, lovely day in Galway and not a lot on the radar

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#30 18-10-2014 3:17pm

sunbabe08

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seriously i decided not to go to college today because of this yellow warning, it hasn't rained at all in the city. besides the howling wind it's actually a grand oul day

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#31 18-10-2014 3:23pm

maquiladora

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The warning for heavy showers has got nothing to do with this hurricane guys. Remains of Gonzalo won't be around our parts until Tuesday...

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#32 18-10-2014 3:33pm

Dazzo

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Thats irish weather for ya....

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#33 18-10-2014 3:38pm

howlinwolf

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a question for the more tuned in people...with the el nina effect this year, does this have any bearing on atlantic storms/depressions as in intensity, direction or is it just the pacific that it effects?

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#34 18-10-2014 6:16pm

pauldry

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howlinwolf wrote: »

a question for the more tuned in people...with the el nina effect this year, does this have any bearing on atlantic storms/depressions as in intensity, direction or is it just the pacific that it effects?

Yes it usually brings wet and windy winters. Prob like last year

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#35 18-10-2014 7:03pm

Billcarson

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It is thought that an el nino has less effect on europe then other parts of the globe. This el nino is expected to be fairly weak i think which should be alright news for those hoping for a colder then average winter.

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#36 19-10-2014 10:29am

omicron

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Quite unusual to have a Cat 1 hurricane which hasn't transitioned to extratropical yet north of 45N!

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#37 19-10-2014 6:54pm

RED L4 0TH

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Still a hurricane despite being over SSTs of less than 10C. Extra-tropical transition expected very soon though.

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#38 19-10-2014 6:54pm

Xenji

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What time tomorrow are we expecting this to hit the west coast?

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#39 19-10-2014 7:04pm

howlinwolf

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how are the models looking for this ex hurricane, the last models I seen were yesterday and they were saying a downgrade with the low pushing further north.... any change?

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#40 19-10-2014 7:22pm

sunbabe08

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well according to accuweather is hitting us tomorrow night

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/gonzalo-to-deliver-drenching-r/35936197

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#41 19-10-2014 8:00pm

maquiladora

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howlinwolf wrote: »

how are the models looking for this ex hurricane, the last models I seen were yesterday and they were saying a downgrade with the low pushing further north.... any change?

The bulk of the heaviest rain looks like heading for Scotland. Gusts look like being up to around 85-95 km/h around coasts, so nothing exceptional at all. A wet and windy autumn night, the type of thing you see several times in the average autumn. The media hype is ridiculous.

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#42 19-10-2014 8:32pm

Iancar29

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Exactly Maq... nothing out of the ordinary . Wouldnt even have its own thread if it wasnt for it being a hurricane from the start.

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#43 19-10-2014 10:27pm

maquiladora

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Gonzalo is now Post-Tropical. The final forecast discussion:

The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally
taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted
more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation
center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has
wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo
looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the
system has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is
consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is
expected during the next 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward
the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next
24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low
pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC
track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

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