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Hurricane GONZALO

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    #32
    Dazzo
    Registered Users Posts: 14 ✭Dazzo


    Thats irish weather for ya....


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    #33
    howlinwolf
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    a question for the more tuned in people...with the el nina effect this year, does this have any bearing on atlantic storms/depressions as in intensity, direction or is it just the pacific that it effects?


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    #34
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,894 ✭✭✭pauldry


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    a question for the more tuned in people...with the el nina effect this year, does this have any bearing on atlantic storms/depressions as in intensity, direction or is it just the pacific that it effects?

    Yes it usually brings wet and windy winters. Prob like last year


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    #35
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,514 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    It is thought that an el nino has less effect on europe then other parts of the globe. This el nino is expected to be fairly weak i think which should be alright news for those hoping for a colder then average winter.


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    #36
    omicron
    Registered Users Posts: 818 ✭✭✭omicron


    Quite unusual to have a Cat 1 hurricane which hasn't transitioned to extratropical yet north of 45N!


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    #37
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Still a hurricane despite being over SSTs of less than 10C. Extra-tropical transition expected very soon though.

    325759.jpg


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    #38
    Xenji
    Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    What time tomorrow are we expecting this to hit the west coast?


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    #39
    howlinwolf
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    how are the models looking for this ex hurricane, the last models I seen were yesterday and they were saying a downgrade with the low pushing further north.... any change?


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    #40
    sunbabe08
    Registered Users Posts: 6,316 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    well according to accuweather is hitting us tomorrow night

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/gonzalo-to-deliver-drenching-r/35936197


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    #41
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    how are the models looking for this ex hurricane, the last models I seen were yesterday and they were saying a downgrade with the low pushing further north.... any change?

    The bulk of the heaviest rain looks like heading for Scotland. Gusts look like being up to around 85-95 km/h around coasts, so nothing exceptional at all. A wet and windy autumn night, the type of thing you see several times in the average autumn. The media hype is ridiculous.

    Ebcs4TV.gif


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    #42
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Exactly Maq... nothing out of the ordinary . Wouldnt even have its own thread if it wasnt for it being a hurricane from the start.


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    #43
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Gonzalo is now Post-Tropical. The final forecast discussion:
    The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and
    southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally
    taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted
    more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation
    center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has
    wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo
    looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the
    system has completed its transformation into an extratropical
    cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is
    consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is
    expected during the next 48 hours.

    The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward
    the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next
    24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down
    considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low
    pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC
    track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
    is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
    Prediction Center.

    This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on
    this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
    National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
    header FZNT01 KWBC.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED


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