El Niño is coming

vickers209 · 27-06-2014 6:22pm #1

Heard about this on the radio yesterday and now met eireann have a report about it on there website too

Geneva, 26 June 2014 (WMO) - There is a 60% likelihood of an El Niño being fully established between June and August, increasing to 75-80% for the October to December period, according to an El Niño Update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Based on advice from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, many governments have already started preparing for the arrival of El Niño, which is associated with regional-scale drought and flood situations in different parts of the world and has a warming influence on global average surface temperatures.

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, coupled with typical atmospheric circulation patterns. It is a natural phenomenon with a recurring interval of 2-7 years and has a major impact on the climate around the world. The last El Niño was in 2009/2010.

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have recently warmed to weak El Niño thresholds but atmospheric conditions (such as sea level pressure, cloudiness and trade winds) have remained neutral. This indicates that El Niño has not yet become fully established, as it essentially depends on the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. However, atmospheric patterns that are typical of a fully developed El Niño event on the basin-wide scale are still likely to appear, according to the WMO Update, which is based on consensus from experts around the world.

The tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to continue to warm during the coming months, peaking during the last quarter of 2014. Its potential intensity remains uncertain, but a moderate strength event currently appears more likely than a weak or strong one.

More info HERE

There seem to be no mention of the likely effects on Ireland it says the last one happened in 09/10.
So does this mean Snowmageddon again or will there be any effects?

Kippure · 27-06-2014 7:36pm

Watch for a complete flip in pressure pattern this November. The Beast from the East will deliver SNOWMAGEDDON...............:D

mel.b · 27-06-2014 7:39pm

I don't know if El Nino affects Ireland? I know Australia, gets significantly affected and they are watching this carefully.

whitebriar · 27-06-2014 9:25pm

Kippure wrote: »

Watch for a complete flip in pressure pattern this November. The Beast from the East will deliver SNOWMAGEDDON...............:D

Well probably what won't happen is a cold USA and Canada meaning a less disturbed Atlantic and a higher likely hood of high pressures surviving longer in the Greenland,Iceland area and yes I think you know what that favours?

Jpmarn · 27-06-2014 9:33pm

We had significant cold spells during the two winters of 2009 to 2011. If there is new El Niño situation developing towards the end of the year are we in for a colder and normal winter. And probably a washout summer next year?

whitebriar · 27-06-2014 9:39pm

Jpmarn wrote: »

We had significant cold spells during the two winters of 2009 to 2011. If there is new El Niño situation developing towards the end of the year are we in for a colder and normal winter. And probably a washout summer next year?

I think my point was,less cold air entering the Atlantic meant less depressions forming there and more chances of high pressure forming out there.
Atlantic blocking highs in winter promote weather coming from the East or northeast meaning potentially some cold spells erupting if you get me?

Reckless Abandonment · 27-06-2014 9:41pm

whitebriar wrote: »

I think my point was,less cold air entering the Atlantic meant less depressions forming there and more chances of high pressure forming out there.
Atlantic blocking highs in winter promote weather coming from the East or northeast meaning potentially some cold spells erupting if you get me?

ok time to move the isl of man..

Billcarson · 27-06-2014 9:48pm

I dont think El Nino means we will get a cold winter this yr,we might we might not. It should be remembered that there was an an el nino in 2006,the winter of 2006/07 was a mild wet one. So what kind of winter we may get is impossible to say yet.

MiNdGaM3 · 28-06-2014 1:43pm

Like everything in weather, you need to examine multiple facets at once, as a single teleconnection in isolation won't tell you too much.

A recent study (abstract here) looked at various teleconnections, among them El Nino/La Nina, and how they influence North American and European winters.

In the paper itself, what they found was that in winter, El Nino, warm Atlantic subpolar gyre, low Kara Sea ice, and and easterly QBO, each tend to favour -ve NAO condition, while the opposite forms contribute to +ve NAO conditions.

This winter we'll likely have something close to El Nino and an easterly QBO. The state of the subpolar gyre and the Kara sea ice remains to be seen though.

Anywho, for updates on the state of El Nino, there are weekly updates by the CPC here and updates every other week by the BOM here

El Niño is coming

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