July 2014 Boards forecast contest

Looking for the highest temperature at any station, then is that station close to (or possibly at) one of the five IMT sites. Example, highest is Moorepark, that's closer to Shannon than any other IMT site, so answer is your temp at SHA. (This was supposed to be from a menu on the form, so it seems like a dumb idea now).

If you believe the highest max will be in Connacht then go CLA, if in the southeast, go OAK, if in the Dublin area go CAS and if in the Midlands go MUL.

We could go with exact station -- but if anyone enters that I will change it to the right IMT station for the format. So basically any location you want to name will work the same for the contest.

Okay good people, the entry form is now available.

If you enter(ed) in this thread, take no further action. I will enter your forecasts over in the form myself. You retain the right to update your forecasts up to Wed 2 July at 0300h without penalty. You can do that in the entry form or here, and I will review your earlier posts to find any edits you might make.

I have edited the original post so that people who start reading the thread today will just have the usual information.

Thanks. -- MTC

Table of entries -- July 2014 forecast contest

FORECASTER ____________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN ___ Max 5, loc
___________________________________________________________________

Rameire _______________ 17.6 __ 28.8 __ 5.5 __ 088 __ 120 ___ 17.1 _ OAK
Jpmarn _____ (-5) _______16.8 __ 30.5 __ 5.6 __ 071 __ 132 ___ 18.9 _ SHA
M.T. Cranium ___________ 16.2 __ 30.2 __ 4.5 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 18.6 _ SHA
200 motels __ (-10) ______16.2 __ 30.1 __ 6.2 __ 071 __ 139 ___ 18.2 _ MUL
lostinashford __ (-20) ____ 16.2 __ 27.3 __ 4.3 __ 087 __ 109 ___ 22.1 _ CAS
John Mac _______________16.0 __ 28.2 __ 4.8 __ 095 __ 110 ___ 20.4 _ SHA
The Zohan ___ (-10) _____ 16.0 __ 29.0 __ 5.0 __ 094 __ 135 ___ 21.0 _ OAK
mickger844posts _ (-10) __ 16.0 __ 27.5 __ 5.1 __ 085 __ 112 ___ 22.1 _ OAK
Omicron _____ (-10) _____ 16.0 __ 26.0 __ 5.0 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 18.5 _ OAK
JD ____________________ 16.0 __ 29.2 __ 4.4 __ 083 __ 109 ___ 20.1 _ CAS
Pauldry ________________ 15.9 __ 29.1 __ 4.9 __ 090 __ 120 ___ 18.8 _ SHA
Rikand _________________15.9 __ 28.0 __ 4.6 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 19.5 _ MUL
Joe Public ______________ 15.9 __ 29.9 __ 4.9 __ 088 __ 129 ___ 18.9 _ OAK

Con Sensus ____________ 15.9 __ 28.3 __ 4.6 __ 090 __ 115 ___ 19.0 _ OAK

Danno _________________15.8 __ 25.8 __ 4.4 __ 080 __ 135 ___ 18.7 _ OAK
Okla _______ (-5) _______ 15.8 __ 28.4 __ 6.3 __ 080 __ 110 ___ 18.6 _ OAK
Kindredspirit ____________15.7 __ 27.6 __ 3.0 __ 090 __ 115 ___ 16.3 _ OAK
Harps _________________ 15.7 __ 27.9 __ 4.1 __ 110 __ 120 ___ 16.9 _ OAK
Dasa29 ________________ 15.5 __ 28.0 __ 2.0 __ 075 __ 125 ___ 23.0 _ MUL
Bsal ___________________15.5 __ 26.9 __ 5.1 __ 099 __ 105 ___ 19.0 _ OAK
DOCARCH ______________ 15.4 __ 28.3 __ 3.4 __ 090 __ 110 ___ 20.2 _ CAS
Drdidlittle ______________ 15.4 __ 25.7 __ 5.2 __ 090 __ 090 ___ 23.0 _ CLA
Dacogawa ______________15.2 __ 28.8 __ 4.6 __ 116 __ 096 ___ 21.1 _ OAK
Tae laidir ______________ 15.2 __ 26.5 __ 3.3 __ 110 __ 100 ___ 17.0 _ OAK
Waterways _____________ 15.2 __ 26.3 __ 2.0 __ 110 __ 096 ___ 23.2 _ CAS


________________________________________________

I have relaxed the late penalties by a factor of 50% as this month was quite late getting launched. Late penalties of 5 will also reduce bonus scores by 2 while late penalties of 10 will reduce them by 4 (after all are calculated).

If anyone else enters before 0300h 4th, they will have the 10 point penalty then it will go to 25 for the rest of 4th, bonus would be reduced by 5. No entries accepted after 0300h 5th.

Ripley's believe it or not, when I entered my forecast I was thinking of the maps for the 6th for some unknown reason, so it would take compensating errors to get much out of that. What's your excuse going to be?

BONUS -- 12 selected OAK, 4 like SHA, 4 now for CAS, 3 took MUL and 1 for CLA.

Scoring will be something like this, five points for correct region, four if the verifying station is almost mid-way between correct and your pick, three if you chose the second best but it wasn't that close, two if you have the third best and one if you avoided the worst choice (I may need to get up close and personal with the map of locations). As to the five points for the temperature, that will go by five groups of four, closest four get five points, next four get four etc, least accurate one or more gets zero. If anyone scores five on both, two extra bonus points awarded, if anyone has a 5-4 or 4-5 score then one extra. Then late reductions would apply.

In a holding pattern for the bonus as the data have not yet been updated on the met.ie website.

The three days before Saturday, PP was 0.5 to 0.8 deg warmer than Dublin, if this proves to be the case for Saturday then it will come in warmest. However, it won't make a lot of difference to the scores as the Oak Park forecasts were generally closer to the mark numerically and will have the benefit of the second closest IMT so we're only waiting around to see about 2-3 points for most. Betting that daily data will return later today, have seen this a few times before but it usually doesn't last more than a few days.

We finally have some data and the bonus was 19.2 C at Phoenix Park. The four closest to that (also Con Sensus) were Bsal (19.0), Jpmarn and Joe Public (18.9) and Rikand (19.5). None of those selected Casement and those who scored 4/5 for temperature did not select Casement either, so no super-bonus points awarded.

Will give the Oak Park and Mullingar guesses 3/5 and Shannon and Claremorris 1/5 all things considered. This leaves the question of estimating the other values to date. They are still posting data so I have nothing very reliable there, however, from what I recall and comparing with the CET values, would estimate that IMT is around 15.8, rainfall around 75% and sunshine possibly a bit above normal.

Update after three weeks ...

IMT now 15.7 C and climbing at about 0.2 per day with these very warm nights.

PRC now 67% after an exactly normal third week (although Ballyhaise made up for a lot of rather dry reports).

SUN barely improved to 90% thanks to the 91% of week three.

I forgot to check week four, but looking at the data to 29th, would say

IMT still at 16.4.

PRC down to about 55% of normal

SUN is probably a little over 100% now after quite a sunny eight days.

we'll find out soon enough ...

Updated annual scoring table

Here's our first look at the main contest format where you get to drop your two lowest scores (assuming you have a full set of scores). The scores and ranks for that are now added on the right side of the table. The order will be changed later in the year to reflect this aspect of the contest. For now, we're sticking with the total score to create the table.

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ M __ J ___ J ___ TOTAL ___ Best 5/7 (rank)

01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 __ 504 ____ 382 (1)

01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 __ 490 ____ 374 (1)
02 _ harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 __ 468 ____ 348 (2)
03 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 __ 437 ____ 343 (3)
04 _ kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 __ 434 ____ 333 (5)
05 _ Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 __ 421 ____ 337 (4)

06 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 __ 409 ____ 328 (6)
07 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 __ 408 ____ 318 (8)
08 _ John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 __ 405 ____ 305 (13)
09 _ jpmarn _________ 61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 __ 402 ____ 314 (10)
10 _ DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 __ 399 ____ 314 (10)

11 _ mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 __ 397 ____ 303 (14)
12 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 __ 394 ____ 319 (7)
13 _ dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 __ 389 ____ 293 (17)
14 _ Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 __ 375 ____ 277 (22)
15 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 __ 369 ____ 282 (19)

16 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 __ 358 ____ 281 (20)
16 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 __ 358 ____ 301 (16)
18 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 __ 355 ____ 280 (21)
19 _ traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- __ 351 ____ 312 (12)
20 _ lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 __ 347 ____ 302 (15)

21 _ okla ___________59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 __ 335 ____ 286 (18)
22 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 __ 316 ____ 264 (23)
23 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 __ 315 ____ 315 (9)
24 _ talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- __ 255
25 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 236

26 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- __ 180 ____ 164 (24)
27 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- __ 163
28 _ Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ -- _ --- __ 136
29 _ seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- __ 123
30 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- __ 104

31 _ yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- ___94
32 _ downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- ___64
33 _ The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 __102
34 _ dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___55
35 _ octo __________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 47

36 _ rebelcork _____ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 46
37 _ sunflower3_____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ -- _ --- ___ 40
37 _ drdidlittle _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 ___ 40
39 _ billcarson _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- ___ 39
40 _ aimsir ________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- ___ 28