Property Market 2019

Mic 1972 · 11-11-2019 4:39pm

riclad wrote: »

There,s very few house,s for sale in ranelagh ,so there will always be buyers and viewers for a house in that area .even if the property market is slowing down .
If a builder finds an empty site there they will build offices on it or high class apartments .

high end areas are the last ones to drop, in fact the decline began in Dublin North/West a year ago

riclad · 11-11-2019 4:48pm

The market has already peaked,
prices have fallen a few per cent in the past 7 months .the only reason to hold off selling now ,is maybe for tax reason,s
eg wait for the start of 2020 , for the new tax year to begin.

IspeakcozIcan · 12-11-2019 10:14am

Rise in housing starts in third quarter. Previous reports on slowdown possible overstated. Good news.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/housing-commencement-notices-jump-despite-reports-of-slowdown-1.4079613

Assetbacked · 12-11-2019 10:34am

The new daft.ie report makes grim reading;

https://touch.daft.ie/report

The FF/FG government have utterly failed the young workers who have been renting. The policies have had no impact on fixing the problem which means, yet again we will need international help to fix a property problem of our own doing. A slowdown in MNC activity so that new people aren't arriving on the shores each week is vital to try and let the growth of the past few years bed down and have supply pick up. Talk of a global slowdown is most certainly music to the ears of renting workers in Dublin.

Bluefoam · 12-11-2019 10:42am

Assetbacked wrote: »

The new daft.ie report makes grim reading;

https://touch.daft.ie/report

The FF/FG government have utterly failed the young workers who have been renting. The policies have had no impact on fixing the problem which means, yet again we will need international help to fix a property problem of our own doing. A slowdown in MNC activity so that new people aren't arriving on the shores each week is vital to try and let the growth of the past few years bed down and have supply pick up. Talk of a global slowdown is most certainly music to the ears of renting workers in Dublin.

Yet cocaine use is up, 5 billion spent on holidays last year, reports this morning of rise in disposable income... People have money to spend & the housing supply is bought up... Question: do people have their priorities right?

Assetbacked · 12-11-2019 10:45am

Bluefoam wrote: »

Yet cocaine use is up, 5 billion spent on holidays last year, reports this morning of rise in disposable income... People have money to spend & the housing supply is bought up... Question: do people have their priorities right?

If that's a fair argument then it's fair to say that old people aren't dying fast enough to bring supply back on the market so the government should tax them to their graves.

smurgen · 12-11-2019 10:49am

Bluefoam wrote: »

Yet cocaine use is up, 5 billion spent on holidays last year, reports this morning of rise in disposable income... People have money to spend & the housing supply is bought up... Question: do people have their priorities right?

I don't get ya. Should every last penny we have be spent on housing? If there's a rise in disposable income who says landlords or property speculators have a right to it? Surely those that earned it can spend it in any manner they seem fit.

Bluefoam · 12-11-2019 10:50am

Assetbacked wrote: »

If that's a fair argument then it's fair to say that old people aren't dying fast enough to bring supply back on the market so the government should tax them to their graves.

No, its not fair to say that at all. You seem to be a rather disturbed individual.

I don't understand how you can equate personal financial prudence with wanting to kill old people so that you can have a cheep house.

Odd statement to say the least.

12-11-2019 10:59am

Bluefoam wrote: »

Yet cocaine use is up, 5 billion spent on holidays last year, reports this morning of rise in disposable income... People have money to spend & the housing supply is bought up... Question: do people have their priorities right?

so a rise in disposable income makes paying close to 1000 per month for a room in a shared house ok?

Bluefoam · 12-11-2019 11:02am

smurgen wrote: »

I don't get ya. Should every last penny we have be spent on housing? If there's a rise in disposable income who says landlords or property speculators have a right to it? Surely those that earned it can spend it in any manner they seem fit.

You can spend your money as you want... Prioritise your needs, and spend as you wish.

The fact that someone else owns a property that they rent out, shows that they made that one of their priorities & therefore is entitled to rent it out... at a price that the market is willing to pay...

Bluefoam · 12-11-2019 11:08am

Hold old off... all I'm saying is how it is... rents are expensive, houses are expensive, lifestyle is expensive...

I never said people aren't entitled to have things the way they want them...

Bluefoam · 12-11-2019 11:12am

smurgen wrote: »

I don't get ya. Should every last penny we have be spent on housing? If there's a rise in disposable income who says landlords or property speculators have a right to it? Surely those that earned it can spend it in any manner they seem fit.

I never said that every penny should be spent on rent... I said that people were prioritising lifestyle... which is actually the oposite. That comes from the conversation on Newstalk this morning...

It is a fact that many young people are prioritising lifestyle... Coke use is going through the roof. So maybe if they spent less on class A's they'd have more income to spend on rent...

Just to clarify, I'm not saying that high rents are fair... but they are high, that is a fact. What can you do to get beyond that...?

Mic 1972 · 12-11-2019 11:14am

Bluefoam wrote: »

I never said that every penny should be spent on rent... I said that people were prioritising lifestyle... which is actually the oposite. That comes from the conversation on Newstalk this morning...

It is a fact that many young people are prioritising lifestyle... Coke use is going through the roof. So maybe if they spent less on class A's they'd have more income to spend on rent...

Just to clarify, I'm not saying that high rents are fair... but they are high, that is a fact. What can you do to get beyond that...?

That's where money is going???

beauf · 12-11-2019 11:19am

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That's where money is going???

For some.

D.Wilmott · 12-11-2019 11:34am

Ronan Lyons said on the latest daft report today about rents rising for the 14th quarter in a row that we could be in for another 10 years of high rents?

www. independent. ie/business/personal-finance/revealed-areas-with-highest-rental-hikes-as-country-braced-for-ten-more-years-of-rent-misery-38683635.html

"Otherwise, the market may not suffer another 10 years of rising rents, but it will likely suffer another 10 years of high rents. And for a country dependent on its attractiveness to businesses that could set up somewhere else, that is not good news," Mr Lyons said. "

Surely that can't be right? Although given the government's inertia on this issue, could be possible.

beauf · 12-11-2019 11:46am

Why not. Its just mirrors people on boards who just ignore the basic principles in place.

Demand (Increasing population and immigration),
Shortage (Properties being taken off the market, new stock in poor supply),
Finance (unable to get loans to develop or buy, wages not matching rent, high taxes on everything).

Has any of this significantly changed.

smurgen · 12-11-2019 11:54am

Bluefoam wrote: »

I never said that every penny should be spent on rent... I said that people were prioritising lifestyle... which is actually the oposite. That comes from the conversation on Newstalk this morning...

It is a fact that many young people are prioritising lifestyle... Coke use is going through the roof. So maybe if they spent less on class A's they'd have more income to spend on rent...

Just to clarify, I'm not saying that high rents are fair... but they are high, that is a fact. What can you do to get beyond that...?

The irony of your post is its probably the landlords upping their usage of coke.they can't spend fast enough.

beauf · 12-11-2019 12:20pm

smurgen wrote: »

The irony of your post is its probably the landlords upping their usage of coke.they can't spend fast enough.

Then they should lift the restrictions on LLs leaving the market. They've obviously made enough money so they should be allowed to get out of the market.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/bank-to-write-off-debts-of-more-than-1000-landlords-under-deal-36597051.html

let the banks take them over. They can become the mythical "professional LL"

12-11-2019 12:39pm

smurgen wrote: »

I don't get ya. Should every last penny we have be spent on housing? If there's a rise in disposable income who says landlords or property speculators have a right to it? Surely those that earned it can spend it in any manner they seem fit.

I do, if you rent a property the owner has a right to whatever part of your income is required to cover the rent. If you buy a house, the seller/bank has a right to whatever part of your income is necessary to buy/pay for it. By entering the agreement, more importantly, you do as well.

Bluefoam · 12-11-2019 1:26pm

beauf wrote: »

Then they should lift the restrictions on LLs leaving the market. They've obviously made enough money so they should be allowed to get out of the market.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/bank-to-write-off-debts-of-more-than-1000-landlords-under-deal-36597051.html

let the banks take them over. They can become the mythical "professional LL"

you want the banks to be the landlord? you want them to finance the property market, invest in the property market, contriol the property market and charge people for housing within the property market?

& this is meant to drive prices down???

beauf · 12-11-2019 1:56pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

you want the banks to be the landlord? you want them to finance the property market, invest in the property market, contriol the property market and charge people for housing within the property market?

& this is meant to drive prices down???

I think you missed rhetoric. Don't want LL as they are rolling around in Coke. So let them leave. Don't really care who takes over. Let those making the suggestion of removing LLs come up with that solution.

Assetbacked · 12-11-2019 2:46pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

No, its not fair to say that at all. You seem to be a rather disturbed individual.

I don't understand how you can equate personal financial prudence with wanting to kill old people so that you can have a cheep house.

Odd statement to say the least.

It's a response your cocaine hoovering nonsense comment deserved.

Samuel T. Cogley · 12-11-2019 2:57pm

I'm a LL where's my cocaine? Was expecting a shipment from Drogheda...

12-11-2019 2:59pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

I'm a LL where's my cocaine? Was expecting a shipment from Drogheda...

Are you allowed raise the quantity by 4% each year, or can you just request better quality?

Graham · 12-11-2019 3:21pm

Mod Note

while high-purity coke may well explain some of the higher post counts, discussion of Bolivian marching powder is better suited to another fora.

Thanks

SteelyDanJalapeno · 12-11-2019 9:27pm

Been bidding on a house for the past few weeks, all went quiet after our last offer 2 weeks ago, so I called the EA today, he told me he had planned to call me later today.

We were the highest bidder for the past 2 weeks but now the seller has decided to sell to his nephew instead, sigh

Horusire · 12-11-2019 10:25pm

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Been bidding on a house for the past few weeks, all went quiet after our last offer 2 weeks ago, so I called the EA today, he told me he had planned to call me later today.

We were the highest bidder for the past 2 weeks but now the seller has decided to sell to his nephew instead, sigh

Ouch! Was it above asking out of interest?

SteelyDanJalapeno · 12-11-2019 11:26pm

Horusire wrote: »

Ouch! Was it above asking out of interest?

No, about 10% under asking, was in need of complete renovation, but a great location and detached. Been looking for 10 months

13-11-2019 10:33am

So im after some opinions if people could kindly help.

Currently considering buying. Im single, 34 and have pretty much 375-400k of a mortgage to buy (depending on property and exemption).

Now im torn as im currently renting close enough to the city centre in a really nice house, I get on great with housemates and rent isnt absolutely insane per month (although not too far off the entire mortgage repayments of an average 3 bed semi) but im still able to save a reasonable amount every month.

Now i seem to have this irish thing of an uncontrollable urge to buy a house ingrained in me, and i guess uncertainty around the landlord increasing rent and general issues with rental houses have me wanting to buy now.

So any advice? my heart is telling me to buy now and get on with having my own place while my brain is telling me to wait a year to see how the market settles.

Mickiemcfist · 13-11-2019 10:39am

To be honest what I'd be doing in your situation is buying a house & have your current housemates come with you.

Bluefoam · 13-11-2019 10:41am

Irish house prices are not overvalued:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-not-overvalued-despite-85-hike-since-2013-esri-says-1.4081013

drunkmonkey · 13-11-2019 10:44am

I'd hold tuff if you get on ok with your housemates, beats rattling around on your own or getting a tenant that's a pain with your own place. Your in no rush to buy, what happens if you meet the galway girl and decided to head out west. 34 is still young, see how life plays out over the next 6yrs as it's not going to be the same as the last 6.

JohnnyChimpo · 13-11-2019 11:01am

Bluefoam wrote: »

Irish house prices are not overvalued:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-not-overvalued-despite-85-hike-since-2013-esri-says-1.4081013

Thanks for the link, but you'd want to have a memory that started in 2009 to take anything the ESRI says at face value. The same lads who predicted that there might be a global downturn in 2007/2008, but that Ireland would escape unscathed because the fundamentals of our property market were rock-solid.

lol.

Bluefoam · 13-11-2019 11:06am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I'd hold tuff if you get on ok with your housemates, beats rattling around on your own or getting a tenant that's a pain with your own place. Your in no rush to buy, what happens if you meet the galway girl and decided to head out west. 34 is still young, see how life plays out over the next 6yrs as it's not going to be the same as the last 6.

Getting a mortage is allot more difficult at 40 than it is at 34... you will have less time to pay it back, making your monthly payments much higher. Plus you don't know what house prices will be like in 6 years... they may be lower than now, but history tells us that they will probably have inflated sygnificantly...

Buy a house when you are young, get the best terms possible, buy cleverly... If you meet the girls from Galway, or want to travel the world, you can & just rent the house out... If you have trouble with the mortage, then rent out a room, if you want a house somewhere else, just sell it and move on... Home ownership is empowering, it lets you do the stuff you want... if you spend the next 6 years thinking about buying a house, you'll restrict yourself from doing the things you want.

drunkmonkey · 13-11-2019 11:10am

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

Thanks for the link, but you'd want to have a memory that started in 2009 to take anything the ESRI says at face value. The same lads who predicted that there might be a global downturn in 2007/2008, but that Ireland would escape unscathed because the fundamentals of our property market were rock-solid.

lol.

I'd literally made a post with the same paper for the last 10yrs quoting different opinions every year but mistakenly wiped it, but it's full of headlines like "Average house prices could still be overvalued by up to 30%" etc and some from 2018.
Our economy could get an awful kick in the teeth in the next 14mts. They kick Trump out and i'm cashing in every investment I have, much an all as some people hate him, the economy has been flying. Then we've the UK nobody knows what's happening, and Europe is an economic basket case to the rest of the world but we never see those headlines living in it.
2020 is a going to be one hell of a year.

drunkmonkey · 13-11-2019 11:13am

Bluefoam wrote: »

Getting a mortage is allot more difficult at 40 than it is at 34... you will have less time to pay it back, making your monthly payments much higher. Plus you don't know what house prices will be like in 6 years... they may be lower than now, but history tells us that they will probably have inflated sygnificantly...
.

It's not harder, you probably have more saved, earn more money, possibly have a partner to go in with you.
Your assuming were in a never ending cycle of house price rises, we are on a long enough time scale but there's highs and lows in that cycle, I'd say were near a high. With what's happening in the word I think it's a risky time.

Bluefoam · 13-11-2019 11:15am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's not harder, you probably have more saved, earn more money, possibly have a partner to go in with you.
Your assuming were in a never ending cycle of house price rises, we are on a long enough time scale but there's highs and lows in that cycle, I'd say were near a high. With what's happening in the word I think it's a risky time.

Sure theres peaks and troughs... but ultimately throughout history, property prices have risen & will continue to do so. They may increntally drop, but will rise again.

Mickiemcfist · 13-11-2019 11:27am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's not harder, you probably have more saved, earn more money, possibly have a partner to go in with you.
Your assuming were in a never ending cycle of house price rises, we are on a long enough time scale but there's highs and lows in that cycle, I'd say were near a high. With what's happening in the word I think it's a risky time.

I see what you're saying, but the trend of housing prices has been continuously upward historically. We had the worst recession in living memory not too long ago, those who held out through it are back where they were equity wise, but were insulated from the sh1tshow of a rental market which developed at the latter half of it.

You're recommending he gambles on having a partner, gambles on earning more money & gambles on being able to save more. His rent is probably not far off what his mortgage would be so it's a no brainer for me tbh. He's single so he could probably happily rent out a room or two to completely cover the mortgage at the minute, that's what I'd be doing.

drunkmonkey · 13-11-2019 11:51am

See I got that advice before the last recession but listened to Paul McWilliams when every one was saying he was a crack pot, doom and gloom merchant, felt like I was backing the wrong horse, turns out he was bang on the money, so bough in the dip and now have loads of equity which would require more than a 50% drop in property before I'm in the red. So that's me sorted, was comfortable in the recession and will be comfortable in the next. That's pure pox I know that but the wiritings on the wall, I absolutely believe if Trump falls so will the global economy. I'd possibly buy in January and take a gamble on brexit but not until the clown show in the states is over.

Kamili · 13-11-2019 11:53am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

See I got that advice before the last recession but listened to Paul McWilliams when every one was saying he was a crack pot, doom and gloom merchant, felt like I was backing the wrong horse, turns out he was bang on the money, so bough in the dip and now have loads of equity which would require more than a 50% drop in property before I'm in the red. So that's me sorted, was comfortable in the recession and will be comfortable in the next. That's pure pox I know that but the wiritings on the wall, I absolutely believe if Trump falls so will the global economy. I'd possibly buy in January and take a gamble on brexit but not until the clown show in the states is over.

David McWilliams not Paul I think you mean.

Bluefoam · 13-11-2019 11:55am

Kamili wrote: »

David McWilliams not Paul I think you mean.

Also, Paul/David McWilliams doesn't seem to have the same doom and gloom attitude this time... In fact he seems to think the economy is quite robust this time around.

SozBbz · 13-11-2019 12:08pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Also, Paul/David McWilliams doesn't seem to have the same doom and gloom attitude this time... In fact he seems to think the economy is quite robust this time around.

Yeah this drives me mad. Pre 2008 people though house prices were upward only and things would always be great.

Then the recession happened. Now some people think that recessions are like busses and that one is "due". No other logic, its just that we've seen prices crash massively before, so therefore it will happen agian soon.

Such a swing from unbridled optimism to fatalism.

FWIW I rate McWilliams generally. I agreed with him last time and I agree with him this time. Ireland is a small, open economy and will always feel global shocks. That said, construction here has been a lot more sensible of late and the local economy is strong. While I think its safe to say that we'd all rather Brexit wasnt happening, there will be some upside as we become the only English speaking country in the EU. We are not all off our heads on cheap money anymore, everything we have now is hard got and people are in general more prudent. We were wildly exposed last time because we'd convinced ourselves we were rich but a lot of it was on credit.

While prices have recovered a lot, its not simply repeating the mistakes of the past. We're not building 90,000 units a year. Builders are not building in areas with no demand. We're not taking out 100%+ mortgages. Personal Debt is down and people are wiser and more robust.

Mickiemcfist · 13-11-2019 12:08pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

See I got that advice before the last recession but listened to Paul McWilliams when every one was saying he was a crack pot, doom and gloom merchant, felt like I was backing the wrong horse, turns out he was bang on the money, so bough in the dip and now have loads of equity which would require more than a 50% drop in property before I'm in the red. So that's me sorted, was comfortable in the recession and will be comfortable in the next. That's pure pox I know that but the wiritings on the wall, I absolutely believe if Trump falls so will the global economy. I'd possibly buy in January and take a gamble on brexit but not until the clown show in the states is over.

Well fair play & good that it worked out. However for the vast majority it doesn't work out that way, they lose jobs or get paycuts & the banks don't lend. Rent won't go down as landlords will still need their pound of flesh. If the recession has taught me anything, it's that if stuck in the situation of not being able to pay for your house, I'd much rather not pay a mortgage than not pay rent. If you miss rent payments it'll probably take a year before you're out on your ass, if you miss mortgage you have about a decade & if someone tries to evict you you'll have the bleeding heart brigade stopping the sherriff.

FWIW I'd much prefer a German policy of miss 3 months mortgage & you're out on your ear

Mic 1972 · 13-11-2019 1:21pm

19233974 wrote: »

So im after some opinions if people could kindly help.

Currently considering buying. Im single, 34 and have pretty much 375-400k of a mortgage to buy (depending on property and exemption).

Now im torn as im currently renting close enough to the city centre in a really nice house, I get on great with housemates and rent isnt absolutely insane per month (although not too far off the entire mortgage repayments of an average 3 bed semi) but im still able to save a reasonable amount every month.

Now i seem to have this irish thing of an uncontrollable urge to buy a house ingrained in me, and i guess uncertainty around the landlord increasing rent and general issues with rental houses have me wanting to buy now.

So any advice? my heart is telling me to buy now and get on with having my own place while my brain is telling me to wait a year to see how the market settles.

The market is at its peak now. Dont buy
Keep saving for another year and apply for mortgage again when you have more deposit and house prices have fallen a bit

Bluefoam · 13-11-2019 1:29pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The market is at its peak now. Dont buy
Keep saving for another year and apply for mortgage again when you have more deposit and house prices have fallen a bit

Fascinating viewpoint...

Have you factored in a possible €15,000+ rent & extra for bills and costs during that time? Exactly how much are you telling us prices will drop? If the economy is in a downward spiral, in order to effect property prices so drastically, how easy do you think it will be to secure a mortage or ensure job security?

JohnnyChimpo · 13-11-2019 1:34pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Fascinating viewpoint...

Have you factored in a possible €15,000+ rent & extra for bills and costs during that time? Exactly how much are you telling us prices will drop? If the economy is in a downward spiral, in order to effect property prices so drastically, how easy do you think it will be to secure a mortage or ensure job security?

€15,000+ rent? I'm paying about 20k for a 2br flat and its extremely cheap for the area.

The mortgage on the 4br house I just went sale agreed on will be about 25% cheaper than my current rent (which again, is a great deal for city centre)

13-11-2019 1:50pm

I have a very good deal in that i reckon my rent plus bills is a little over 10k per year, albeit for a room in a shared house. Im a doctor so i have fairly decent job security and good further earning potential. Im inclined to see how it goes over the next year as I cant see them swinging much either way, and certainly not more than 10k to make the rental outgoings worth making such a big investment.

Although the insatiable irish urge to buy somewhere remains strong in me!

13-11-2019 2:42pm

People are dreaming here for a serious crash. In lots of areas prices are still way off the boom prices. Im from Cork and there is value in the commuter towns and even in the suburbs. Frankfield,ballincollig, carrigaline, grange, wilton, togher, lehenaghmore all have sem Ds from 220 to 270. that is very affordable for a couple.

Bluefoam · 13-11-2019 3:16pm

Deleted User wrote: »

People are dreaming here for a serious crash.

Deaming is right... willing a crash to happen is kindof sick, because in order to benefit they are hoping someone else will to lose...

Comes back to the comment here earlier where a poster wanted old people to die so he could by the house he wanted...

Assetbacked · 13-11-2019 3:37pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Deaming is right... willing a crash to happen is kindof sick, because in order to benefit they are hoping someone else will to lose...

Comes back to the comment here earlier where a poster wanted old people to die so he could by the house he wanted...

As you said above, we are well insulated. A crash, of the type likely to happen is not the same as the crash that happened before. A crash to happen now would impact institutional property speculators and MNCs but not Irish people really as on an individual level we are not leveraged to the hilt anymore.

Property Market 2019

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