coronavirus and the property effect

handlemaster · 28-02-2020 2:18pm #1

It is becoming more apparent that the coronavirus is going to have a big effect on the world economy. Trump is saying nothing to worry about in the US as he would but it surely is going to get worse there. Factories are already running down on supplies from China. Coming back to our tiny island this will play into the jobs market , financing etc. The stock market is taking a hit with an economist in the FT stating the markets dus far have been far to complacent. IT will be interesting to see the housing affect.

PhoenixParker · 28-02-2020 2:45pm

Such an Irish question - the world is about to end, but what about property prices?

Really horrible and dark f'd up analysis:

The virus appears to have disproportionately negative impacts on the elderly. It is not uncommon for big homes in good locations to be lived in by one or two retirees who bought it 40 years ago. Sometimes these homes are even empty because the owner now lives in a nursing home.

If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. There could be a big release of pressure on the housing market.

johnnyskeleton · 28-02-2020 2:56pm

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Such an Irish question - the world is about to end, but what about property prices?

Really horrible and dark f'd up analysis:

The virus appears to have disproportionately negative impacts on the elderly. It is not uncommon for big homes in good locations to be lived in by one or two retirees who bought it 40 years ago. Sometimes these homes are even empty because the owner now lives in a nursing home.

If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. There could be a big release of pressure on the housing market.

Or...it will affect our young urban flatsharing population disproportionately as they coming into infected humans as they shop for avocados and vinyl records while the middle aged and elderly board themselves up at home!

The main thing is that it is likely to slow global trade for a few months, with a knock on effect on the economy. Maybe everyone should consume less and it would be good for the world and the environment.

handlemaster · 28-02-2020 3:06pm

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Such an Irish question - the world is about to end, but what about property prices?

Really horrible and dark f'd up analysis:

The virus appears to have disproportionately negative impacts on the elderly. It is not uncommon for big homes in good locations to be lived in by one or two retirees who bought it 40 years ago. Sometimes these homes are even empty because the owner now lives in a nursing home.

If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. There could be a big release of pressure on the housing market.

It's the property section get over yourself.I'm well able to have a conversation on the global impact and how each country is prepared to not for this virus and how peoples lives will be affected. Again its possible to have many different levels of conversation about a topic.

Not mention in what I said about old people dying etc. . Global trade, jobs etc was my angle.. who's the dark one.

PhoenixParker · 28-02-2020 3:21pm

handlemaster wrote: »

It's the property section get over yourself.I'm well able to have a conversation on the global impact and how each country is prepared to not for this virus and how peoples lives will be affected. Again its possible to have many different levels of conversation about a topic.

Not mention in what I said about old people dying etc. . Global trade, jobs etc was my angle.. who's the dark one.

Way to over react!

The colon clearly implies that my analysis is the dark f'd up one.

handlemaster · 28-02-2020 6:45pm

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Way to over react!

The colon clearly implies that my analysis is the dark f'd up one.

It's the virus it does that

ZX7R · 29-02-2020 5:08am

handlemaster wrote: »

It is becoming more apparent that the coronavirus is going to have a big effect on the world economy. Trump is saying nothing to worry about in the US as he would but it surely is going to get worse there. Factories are already running down on supplies from China. Coming back to our tiny island this will play into the jobs market , financing etc. The stock market is taking a hit with an economist in the FT stating the markets dus far have been far to complacent. IT will be interesting to see the housing affect.

China expects to be back producing at full capacity in production within 2 weeks
Since restarting production 2 weeks ago 70% of backlog exports have been produced and 50% has been shipped.
China Steel production growth increased in January and February, they know account for over half the worlds steel output.
world markets will stabilize.
If property prices are to be a affected it wont be over night it can take 12 months too 18 moths for this to filter true.
Jobs that will be hardest hit will be turisum sport and leisure .
Infesters fear people wont consume enough goods.
Who knows really only time will tell.

handlemaster · 04-03-2020 7:36am

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/job-losses-loom-as-exposed-economy-braces-for-slowdown-over-coronavirus-39012713.html

The fed reduced the bench mark interest rate.. investors will get nervous.. then anytbingncan happen. China hasn't been open with all that has happen either I suspect

ZX7R · 04-03-2020 8:38am

handlemaster wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/job-losses-loom-as-exposed-economy-braces-for-slowdown-over-coronavirus-39012713.html

The fed reduced the bench mark interest rate.. investors will get nervous.. then anytbingncan happen. China hasn't been open with all that has happen either I suspect

European markets recoverd again yesterday a little,there seems to be a better acceptance of the situation in European trader's than in America

4068ac1elhodqr · 04-03-2020 3:12pm

The markets will only be one factor, the survival of the eldery might have a bigger impact on downward trends.

handlemaster · 04-03-2020 4:25pm

ZX7R wrote: »

European markets recoverd again yesterday a little,there seems to be a better acceptance of the situation in European trader's than in America

Time.will tell. Markets can take a while to digest the facts and the economical stats are not out there just yet. But what we could face is lack of supply and then on the back of that lower consumption which in turn leads to lower employment drag which in turn leads to lower demand..

Claw Hammer · 04-03-2020 4:50pm

It is very early days yet. There is no vaccine available. If things get to the stage of layoffs and business failures with airlines, hotels, transport operators and others vulnerable to reduced movement and tourism, the knock-on effects will be defaults on bank loans and rents. If bad debts increase in the banks it will reduce the willingness of banks to fund asset purchases even further. Add to that, the fact that governments may have to spend a lot of money on containment measures. If large numbers of conferences are cancelled hotels will be severely impacted and may well fail. Only businesses with very large cash reserves will be able to survive. Irish banks are too weak to keep business propped up until normality returns. The government is far too heavily borrowed to even consider compensation packages.

C3PO · 05-03-2020 8:10am

I suspect that in the short term the market will simply stall with little or nothing being sold. Whether there is a long term effect on house prices will depend on how long the crisis lasts and it’s overall economic impact.

handlemaster · 13-03-2020 6:30pm

The Coronavirus is going to have a very big effect on world markets and employment follows suit. Prices will and the very least stall for several months

Heres Johnny · 13-03-2020 6:38pm

As a property owner I hope prices do not fall but if they do any house I might want to trade up to will surely fall as well so cost to change will not widen......although I am not in the market for trading up or down at the moment ..........so I, possibly selfishly, hope they dont fall as all my siblings and close friends own property and nobody is in the market I know.

Anyone else I am not close enough with to wish a fall so they can buy.

But as a property buyer after the last crash in 08 (I bought in 2010) it gives a great opportunity for those to buy if there is a crash but there will probably be a credit crunch again then so catch 22

Only way for property prices to fall is in a reduction in demand, either by many either dying or emigrating and taking pressure off and letting supply catch up with or exceed demand

On the flipside, housing output may contract as a result of this virus and crisis which will put upward pressure on prices

One might cancel the other out, who knows?

My suggestion is no, property prices will not fall significantly unless there is a massive and prolonged recession which I doubt, possibly a bad year for economy in 2020 but expect a bounce back very soon

Queasy Tadpole · 13-03-2020 6:44pm

It's definitely going to affect me. I had wanted to buy and sell this year but I doubt it's gonna happen now. I'm watching everyday and I'm still seeing houses being bought and sold and no real change in price. In fact a slight increase if anything.

johnnyskeleton · 13-03-2020 6:50pm

Heres Johnny wrote: »

Only way for property prices to fall is in a reduction in demand, either by many either dying or emigrating and taking pressure off and letting supply catch up with or exceed demand

Just to clarify, they will fall if there is a reduction in aggregate demand or an increase in supply. If there are the same number of people wanting to buy, but they have less money to spend (whether through job losses, reduced savings or banks restricting lending), and/or if more houses come on stream to outstrip new demand, then prices can fall.

fliball123 · 13-03-2020 6:52pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Just to clarify, they will fall if there is a reduction in aggregate demand or an increase in supply. If there are the same number of people wanting to buy, but they have less money to spend (whether through job losses, reduced savings or banks restricting lending), and/or if more houses come on stream to outstrip new demand, then prices can fall.

I have been looking at myhome and there seems to be less property on it now then there was at the start of the year supply seems to be drying up as well. I can see there being very few transactions between now and the summer with Corona so we wont know what way property prices are going until we get a heavier sample size

handlemaster · 13-03-2020 8:08pm

This interview should open a few eyes. We are only at the beginning of this. There be an enormous shake out before this is over and a vaccine can be found.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts

ted1 · 13-03-2020 8:10pm

Quite possibly there could be a lot of probate sales in the next 24 months.

Market is down I’m looking at houses at the moment. People are holding off.

ebayissues · 13-03-2020 9:47pm

I have seen houses marked as sold being re-advertised. As a buyer I'm holding off.

The cost of me holding off is probably a years rent which is 10k. If house prices in my bracket fall for 30/40k, I'll acept it.

handlemaster · 13-03-2020 10:03pm

Buyers should hold of for a least a few months. This has not played out yet. All chips are in the air

fliball123 · 13-03-2020 10:08pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Buyers should hold of for a least a few months. This has not played out yet. All chips are in the air

Same with anyone selling hold off until this has cleared and normality resumes no point taking a hair cut unless you need to

beggars_bush · 13-03-2020 10:13pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Buyers should hold of for a least a few months. This has not played out yet. All chips are in the air

If you are gone sale agreed, what would you suggest?

downwesht · 13-03-2020 10:15pm

6 x 3 one bed will certainly be in demand!

Queasy Tadpole · 13-03-2020 10:49pm

I'm a buyer and a seller and I'm slowing down my search but if I find a place and go sale agreed I'm going ahead with it, held off pulling the trigger for too long and now look whats happening.

landofthetree · 13-03-2020 10:55pm

2000 jobs gone at KLM just this minute.

This is going to be absolute carnage.

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/1238583281416839168

IamtheWalrus · 13-03-2020 11:02pm

I've heard reports it'll peak in April, then die off. Any truth to that?

ted1 · 13-03-2020 11:26pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Same with anyone selling hold off until this has cleared and normality resumes no point taking a hair cut unless you need to

If you are taking a hair cut, the property you are buying has taking one too.

JamesMason · 13-03-2020 11:26pm

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

I've heard reports it'll peak in April, then die off. Any truth to that?

What - the virus or job losses?

ted1 · 13-03-2020 11:26pm

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

I've heard reports it'll peak in April, then die off. Any truth to that?

No one knows.

fliball123 · 13-03-2020 11:28pm

ted1 wrote: »

If you are taking a hair cut, the property you are buying has taking one too.

some people have more than one property?

landofthetree · 13-03-2020 11:33pm

Heres Johnny wrote: »

As a property owner I hope prices do not fall but if they do any house I might want to trade up to will surely fall as well so cost to change will not widen......although I am not in the market for trading up or down at the moment ..........so I, possibly selfishly, hope they dont fall as all my siblings and close friends own property and nobody is in the market I know.

Anyone else I am not close enough with to wish a fall so they can buy.

But as a property buyer after the last crash in 08 (I bought in 2010) it gives a great opportunity for those to buy if there is a crash but there will probably be a credit crunch again then so catch 22

Only way for property prices to fall is in a reduction in demand, either by many either dying or emigrating and taking pressure off and letting supply catch up with or exceed demand

On the flipside, housing output may contract as a result of this virus and crisis which will put upward pressure on prices

One might cancel the other out, who knows?

My suggestion is no, property prices will not fall significantly unless there is a massive and prolonged recession which I doubt, possibly a bad year for economy in 2020 but expect a bounce back very soon

Good post. Hopefully prices fall in the medium term. But hopefully they will fall because the issue of affordability and supply are addressed and not a recession.

LuckyLloyd · 14-03-2020 12:23am

I’m a buyer, we have obviously stopped looking over the past two weeks. The cash we hold may be needed for more important things.

As much as it is tempting to imagine price falls and everything else staying the same, nobody (bar very specific economic areas) should assume that they will hold onto their jobs or the banks will lend what you planned to borrow when / if this virus comes under control.

We are in completely uncertain waters.

TravelTiger · 14-03-2020 5:19am

So if I'm reading some of the replies here right (and they look like well thought out ones too); there's going to be no 2008 style fall in prices?

A global recession (and it's a thousand percent coming) can't even get the crazily inflated Irish housing market down

handlemaster · 14-03-2020 8:12am

beggars_bush wrote: »

If you are gone sale agreed, what would you suggest?

If your figures are all lined up and your happy go ahead.

wirelessdude01 · 14-03-2020 8:36am

beggars_bush wrote: »

If you are gone sale agreed, what would you suggest?

We are waiting to drawdown. Solicitors and bank not returning emails over the past 3 days has kinda spooked us as to what is coming. We fully expect the bank to stall everything now to see what happens worldwide and locally within Ireland. If and when the lockdown in Ireland it put in place then all bets are off.

witnessmenow · 14-03-2020 8:56am

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

We are waiting to drawdown. Solicitors and bank not returning emails over the past 3 days has kinda spooked us as to what is coming. We fully expect the bank to stall everything now to see what happens worldwide and locally within Ireland. If and when the lockdown in Ireland it put in place then all bets are off.

Ring your solicitor. Emails are much easier to out on a long finger than a phone call. Tell the secretary it's urgent if they can't out you true straight away. 3 days waiting for a response is pretty poor.

Bank have made you a loan offer, your house evaluation is valid for a certain period, once neither of those things expire and your circumstances don't change they can't pull the offer.

El Gato De Negocios · 14-03-2020 8:58am

We are sale agreed on our own but havnt found anywhere. Starting to feel a bit twitchy about the whole thing. The consequences are going to get an awful lot worse before it gets better. There will be substantial job losses I think in the hospitality sector, I know someone very senior in a large hotel group and they have had huge drops in revenue. Lower end staff like kitchen porters have been let go. Manufacturing will take a hit if the supply chain drys up. Worrying times.

Ohmeha · 14-03-2020 9:02am

After about 6 years of hard saving I finally just hit my deposit/expenses target this month and was planning to go for mortgage approval in May once I got a few personal things out of the way during next 2 months

I'll be holding off and I'm sure the banks will be mostly holding off lending too. The strategic restriction of property supply was designed for scenarios such as economic shock like this so in the short-term I'd expect price stagnation or minor one digit percentage drops. If this pandemic is not going away come the Autumn then all bets are off because it will be beyond a catastrophic global economic crisis by then

Heres Johnny · 14-03-2020 9:16am

TravelTiger wrote: »

So if I'm reading some of the replies here right (and they look like well thought out ones too); there's going to be no 2008 style fall in prices?

A global recession (and it's a thousand percent coming) can't even get the crazily inflated Irish housing market down

I suggested earlier they won't crash but I, like everyone else, haven't a clue really. I understand the factors involved though. A virus doesn't affect house prices directly, supply and demand do. How the virus affects people's decisions on those 2 things is key.

ParkRunner · 14-03-2020 9:31am

I’m just about to close a sale in Dublin for a 3 bed. I wouldn’t have been surprised if the buyer stalled or pulled out but they’re going ahead with it thankfully. Hoping to buy myself in a few months so it’ll be interesting to see the impact this all has. The market has been slow the last few months anyway so I don’t see much change in the short term.

lomb · 14-03-2020 10:47am

Essentially the beauty of Fiat money is that in theory there is unlimited liquidity in the system. Paper money that everyone spends their days fighting for is essentially worthless and in reality only toilet paper except everyone thinks it has value. Likely if everything shuts down the central banks will offer unlimited funds to banks to help mortgages/business working capital etc and then if it gets bad it will be 'written off' ie helicopter money.
I signed contracts yesterday and paid 10 percent against solicitors advice and a property pro I know. I'm very comfortable with the decision simply as I'm looking5-10- 20 years down the road. All this helicopter money will just create a spurt of inflation at some point depreciating the mortgage over time.

beauf · 14-03-2020 11:32am

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

We are waiting to drawdown. Solicitors and bank not returning emails over the past 3 days has kinda spooked us as to what is coming. We fully expect the bank to stall everything now to see what happens worldwide and locally within Ireland. If and when the lockdown in Ireland it put in place then all bets are off.

So you usually get instant response from them? Even normally it's can take few days even a couple of weeks to get response.

Would you not expect some delay as people and businesses set themselves up to deal with how to operate under these conditions.

I would expect after a short delay business will proceed as normal unless you are in an industry directly effected.

wirelessdude01 · 14-03-2020 12:01pm

beauf wrote: »

So you usually get instant response from them? Even normally it's can take few days even a couple of weeks to get response.

Would you not expect some delay as people and businesses set themselves up to deal with how to operate under these conditions.

I would expect after a short delay business will proceed as normal unless you are in an industry directly effected.

Yes, generally good for responses. This isn't how they have been conducting business so far so it makes me wonder.

On a separate note, I've heard something else about the bank's but won't be posting it online unless it becomes more public knowledge

stinger31 · 14-03-2020 12:25pm

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Yes, generally good for responses. This isn't how they have been conducting business so far so it makes me wonder.

On a separate note, I've heard something else about the bank's but won't be posting it online unless it becomes more public knowledge

Ah you cant do that hahaha..... is it about all the people who are cleaning out their accounts to hold cash under the mattress? I've heard this a lot today already

beauf · 14-03-2020 12:51pm

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Yes, generally good for responses. This isn't how they have been conducting business so far so it makes me wonder.

...

Forums have endless threads about poor communication from solicitors and banks for years.

handlemaster · 14-03-2020 1:24pm

stinger31 wrote: »

Ah you cant do that hahaha..... is it about all the people who are cleaning out their accounts to hold cash under the mattress? I've heard this a lot today already

more likely he said she said

ittakestwo · 14-03-2020 1:25pm

Statutory Ape wrote: »

We are sale agreed on our own but havnt found anywhere. Starting to feel a bit twitchy about the whole thing. The consequences are going to get an awful lot worse before it gets better. There will be substantial job losses I think in the hospitality sector, I know someone very senior in a large hotel group and they have had huge drops in revenue. Lower end staff like kitchen porters have been let go. Manufacturing will take a hit if the supply chain drys up. Worrying times.

If I was sale agreed on my place I would be praying the buyer does not pull out. I might expect the buyer even to try and negotiate a lower price if we had gone sale agreed over 2 weeks ago given what has happened since then.

El Gato De Negocios · 14-03-2020 4:39pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

If I was sale agreed on my place I would be praying the buyer does not pull out. I might expect the buyer even to try and negotiate a lower price if we had gone sale agreed over 2 weeks ago given what has happened since then.

I'm not overly concerned tbh, it's at the lower end of the scale price wise so we wouldn't have much hassle finding someone else, there were 4 separate parties involved in the bidding process.

Slydice · 14-03-2020 5:05pm

Statement: Minister Murphy on Tenants impacted by Covid-19 crisis
Published on Friday, 13 Mar 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/private-rented-housing/statement-minister-murphy-tenants-impacted-covid-19-crisis

Minister Murphy and the Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government have been focused on ensuring critical service areas under the department’s remit including water, homeless services and fire and emergency services are prepared to deal with the Covid-19 crisis.

“The minister understands that some tenants living in rental accommodation may be concerned about their ability to pay rent in the coming weeks if their income is reduced. A range of income supports are available from the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection, and the minister would ask that landlords demonstrate forebearance.

“The minister is working with Government Departments, industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies to identify further actions that can be taken to protect tenants who may be impacted either through a requirement for self-isolation, a confirmed medical diagnosis or a reduction in working hours.”

coronavirus and the property effect

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