Setting up a gambling co-op?

Rasputin reborn · 27-08-2015 1:38am #1

Do you think it would be a good idea to set up a gambling co-op?

If we had say 20 people who had an expert knowledge in one sport or league and they give 1 tip a day. So one person would be the Eng Premiership expert, one person would be the Championship expert, one person the hurling expert, one person the French rugby league expert etc. It is hard to do research on any single bet but if there were 20 people finding 1 bet in a specialized sport each day then I think it would extremely helpful.

So are you an expert in any field of sport?

Do you think it's a good idea or have you any suggestions that might make it work?

diomed · 27-08-2015 6:54pm

In your scheme the first expert to tip a loser automatically becomes an idiot and the other experts want to get rid of him.

I know a bit about flat horseracing.
This year I have a thread in Challenges/Logs on this forum in which I bet €4 on each of the 215 Group races in Ireland and England in 2015.
So far 32 wins, 96 losses and I'm down €80.60. I started with 1 win, 20 losses.
The point I am making is if I was betting on these races seriously I would not have a bet in a high percentage of them, and I would have big bets in others if I could see an edge.
My usual bet on a horse could be a few hundred Euro. I have few bets.

I lost ~ €700 on the 2015 English Derby. Starting with 1992 I have picked four winners in the race in 23 years. Most people would say that is rubbish.
The odds were 12/1, 16/1 (a double), 17/1, 16/1. At one stage I had nine Derby losers in a row.
Picking winners isn't important, backing winners at big prices is.

A few points about your plan.
1. A good gambler waits for a good bet. You want a good bet in every sport every day. That is impossible. Many sports do not have major events with strong betting markets every day.
2. Disagreements will end it. People will question other experts expertise.
3. Experts are poor judgments of their own ability. They will defend their choices even if there is evidence to counter the choice.
4. Experts will want to vary their bet size, and others will want to resist that.
5. There is an extraordinarily large gap between being an expert in a sport and being a good gambler. An expert will pick the likely winner. That is not gambling. That is not value.

Hulk Hands · 27-08-2015 7:08pm

Successful sports gambling is made up of 3 things. Effective Maths and probability knowledge, and how to apply it is the most important. Then industry knowledge. The third is sporting knowledge, which is the least important of the 3 by far. The problem with 95% of gamblers is they focus on the latter with scant regard for the first two. I know guys who make a few k on golf each year, and they could barely tell you the difference between a birdie and a bogey. There will always be people more informed than you on a chosen sport, and in this information age, there's always places to quickly find out what you need. No matter how knowledeable someone is on say league 2, if he doesn't know how to gamble successfully he won't win.

To give an example , Andy Gray is a former player, manager, analyst etc. He provides tips on a certain bookie intercom system. They're laughably bad and he's 100% a losing punter. Compare him to the likes of Neil Channing (Google him) who's likely never kicked a ball in his life, knows little about it, yet makes thousands on it each year.

So I very much doubt you'll find 20 winning punters who'll want to put their accounts (if they have any left) in danger by giving out selections to 19 others

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-08-2015 7:27pm

Agree with above Maths, Knowledge, Application but also 'TIMING'.

e.g. Sure EP's are usually always better. But when it comes to golf, I like to pick up fast early round climbers on live events.

e.g. At the very moment Henrik Stenson is -4 at 4th hole. (x8)
Where as, Speith is +4 at end of R1. (Was also around x8 pre-tournament).
Still would rather have HS now, even at just 4 places.

Also the 'mass consciousness' type of coop does already exist
- just look at B'FairEx, Chat or Oddschecker to see it in action.

Rasputin reborn · 27-08-2015 9:42pm

Thanks guys for you feedback and thoughts.

I agree that stats, probability, maths and systems are more important when being a good gambler rather than expert knowledge on a sport. But when I said an expert on a given league or sport I meant someone who knows gambling and would have a positive % strikerate in this one area. You might say why would they give away this info if they have a 52% strikerate on Dutch football.

The reason would be that there is only a this gambler may have a 52% strikerate on Dutch Football but his overall strikerate on all his gambling is 49%.

So Diomed, you said you would know a bit about Flat Racing. So you would post a bet for what you think would be a good be when you see it not everyday as I first suggested.Imagine if there were 10 or 15 other people who know a bit about a certain sport would you not find it interesting to see the overall winning % from the a group of people giving tips.

Of course the main problem would be how do we know if each person knows anything. Well maybe a short few sentences to explain each bet might Clear it up.

For example:
Limerick SHC - Killmalock vs Patrickswell Killmalock to win 8/13
I predict Kilmallock to win in a tight game. Both teams have won 4 from 4 so far this year and although Patrickswell have a good historical record against Kilmallock I believe Kilmallock have too much class and a win would insure they would avoid NaPairsigh in the semi-final (Na pairsigh are the second best team in Championship). Killmallock also have had there 4 players that play for Limerick back with the club for the last month now and they will be totally focused on this match.

So there is an example. It's not the best tip in the world as it is short priced.
As for how you would bet on it or what's your betting strategy that's up to you. The tips would be designed only as that.

Hulk Hands · 27-08-2015 10:05pm

Rasputin reborn wrote: »

Thanks guys for you feedback and thoughts.

I agree that stats, probability, maths and systems are more important when being a good gambler rather than expert knowledge on a sport. But when I said an expert on a given league or sport I meant someone who knows gambling and would have a positive % strikerate in this one area. You might say why would they give away this info if they have a 52% strikerate on Dutch football.

It's very rarely works like that. Winning gamblers win at every sport (theyre smart enough not to bet if they feel they dont know enough), and losing punters lose at every sport no matter how knowledgeable they are at it. Very rare for a punter to be excellent at one and poor at other. Id say if I gave you 6 months you'd be hard pushed to find 20 truly winning punters in Ireland, never mind find 20 with individual expertise in different areas. This is Ireland, watching sport and gambling for the craic is taken seriously, maths and learning the industry is not. We truly are one of the worst gambling countries on the planet

Gregk961 · 28-08-2015 12:25am

Hulk Hands wrote: »

We truly are one of the worst gambling countries on the planet

Where did that startling fact come out of? Who tops this gambling index of the world? Does it effect our standard of living ranking?

In fairness im sure it would be plenty of fun for those involved but the chances of making any sort of long term profit are close to zero. As Hulk said its hard enough finding 1 profitable punter whos going to open his doors and let you take his prices, let alone 20. Following other people's bets should never be an option; find your own angle, work on it and if it doesn't work find another.

diomed · 28-08-2015 7:48pm

The problem is abuse.

I stopped posting on irishpokerboards.ie on 13/4/13 18:37 "ok, that is my last post on the site." I have never posted since because of abuse. I am a poker player and had 1,196 posts on the website. My offence was saying Tiger Woods was playing poorly in the 2013 US Masters. My greatest abuser actually works for a major Irish bookmaker. I wonder why he was upset with solid advice.

I started by saying I was looking for 40s Adam Scott. People said they would never back him. I didn't get the 40s so went for Jason Day at 85s, virtually an unknown at the time. My largest stake was on Jason Day €241 at 84.49 and I made €4,600 on the event.

The day before the 2012 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe I posted my bet of €182 at 75s on Solemia on the Betfair forum and brief reasons why. Nobody else on the forum mentioned her or appeared to back her. After she won I posted a more lengthy version of my analysis (well worth a read imo -username kincsem). Many said well done, but again there was some abuse.

My thoughts are it is better to have big priced winners than low priced winners. There can be long losing stretches, not acceptable when people want you to tip winners, and if you don't you get abuse. If you do tip a big priced winner you will find they backed the favourite and are upset.

Setting up a gambling co-op?

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