EMILY (Five)

billy the squid · 12-07-2005 4:19am #1

WTNT35 KNHC 120233
TCPAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...EMILY BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1000 MILES...1610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

Theres going to be an interesting list of countries on this storms travel plans

Virgin Islands -> Puerto Rico -> Domincan Republic -> Bahamas -> South West Florida.

Forcast Track - Five Days
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505W5+gif/025734W_sm.gif

Its worth noting that this storm originated pretty close to the equator, on the 11th paralel, so it could develop quickly like Ivan did. but the forcasters are predicting more of a slow development. It will probably only be a Category one by the time it reaches the Virgin Islands.

and it gets worse....

000
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

CORRECTED DISTANCE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...OR ALSO ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM EMILY. DESPITE ITS LOW LATITUDE POSITION...THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON EMILY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

billy the squid · 12-07-2005 11:47pm

hurricane warning issued for Barbados, Grenada and the Grenadines, st. Vincent and St. Lucia

Media Link - WE-FM - The Grenadines
http://www.999wefm.com/
(subscription)

Media Link - Voice of Barbados, 92.7 FM - Barbados
http://www.vob929.com/

that second tropical wave mentioned in post 1 has fallen apart and is unlikely to develop into anything.

Media link - BBS 90.7 - Barbados
http://www.barbadosadvocate.com/
click on the BBS logo on top left of page to start stream
RealPlayer required

The track has also changed slightly and is now likely to head towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Id does not look like it will cross cuba like Dennis did.

billy the squid · 13-07-2005 5:20am

Trinidad and Tobago now under a hurricane warning.

Emily is still moving west and is now not forcasted to hit Jamaica or the Cayman islands but to pas south of them and hit Belize in Central America before heading into the gulf of Mexico.

Media Link - i95.5 - Tobago
http://www.i955fm.com/
Windows Media Player.

Media Link - Red 96.7 - Tobago
http://red967fm.com/
Windows Media Player

Radar - Antiles Islands
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

billy the squid · 14-07-2005 12:12am

All the hurricane warnings have now been replaced with tropical strom warnings as Emily has still not developed into a hurricane.

its predicted course hasnt changed much though.

billy the squid · 14-07-2005 3:46am

Emily has just been upgraded to category 1 hurricane status

000
WTNT65 KNHC 140154
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.

AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

FORECASTER KNABB

==edit===

initally thought to be cat 2 it was infact cat one.

billy the squid · 14-07-2005 5:38am

Media Link - Voice of Grenada - Grenada
http://www.spiceislander.com/vog/

edit : vog is no more. emily seen to that.

billy the squid · 15-07-2005 2:32am

Category Three and heading for jamaica

000
WTNT35 KNHC 150000
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER... AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO... INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO...
AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES...
670 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES... 185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 962 MB... 28.41 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES... AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

Looks like it will cross the Yukatan peninsula after it hits Jamaica and the cayman Islands, and then head for mexico.

billy the squid · 15-07-2005 4:22pm

Emily has weakened slightly, but still a dangerous hurricane

Hurricane warning issued for Jamaica.

Wertz · 16-07-2005 11:32am

This one's up and down like a yo-yo...weakened to cat2 yesterday morning but overnight has encountered more favourable upper level winds and the pressure has dropped...it has since intensified to cat4...I'd say this is ready to slam into the TX gulf coast or N Mexico early in the week....they won't know till it passes the Yucatan pen; The GoM is apparently very favourable for further strengthening and past storms encountering the yucatan have been known to stall once they get out over open water again...

billy the squid · 16-07-2005 2:55pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/090449.shtml?5day?large

seems to predict a mexico landfall. I would imagine that it will weaken quite a bit when it crosses the Yukatan peninsula.

the Caymans are still under a hurricane warning. although I can see that being lifted soon as they are going outside the forcast cone

rainfall rates for the carribean
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/wcaribir.html

billy the squid · 17-07-2005 4:00am

http://www.vibefm.ky/
media link - Vibe FM - Cayman Islands

Emily has sustained windspeeds of 155 mph, it is now bordering on category five status.

Victor · 17-07-2005 7:45pm

http://www.rte.ie/business/2005/0715/oil.html

Emily was progressing through the Gulf of Mexico, gathering speed and partly shutting coastal Venezuelan drilling facilities, dealers said.

How does Emily threaten Venezuela (completely wrong direction)? Or do they mean her little brother?

billy the squid · 19-07-2005 2:37am

@victor

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/EMILY/track.gif

Emily passed fairly close to the venesuelan (sp) coast on its way from the atlantic to the gulf of mexico

The RTE story is from the 15th of July as well.

billy the squid · 20-07-2005 1:32am

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/station.asp?ID=BRO19

Its a wet hurricane, a very wet one heres a radar from brownsville Texas with the eye visible. Emily is very close to the mexico coast now and it is a category 3 hurricane.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kbro.shtml

an even better radar shot of Emily.

billy the squid · 20-07-2005 3:46am

http://live.irlp.net:8000/listen.pls

IRLP aneteur radio stream.

EMILY (Five)

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