Stratosphere watch 2018/19

sryanbruen wrote: »

Very strange. ECM 10hPa zonal winds are now reversing in its forecast.

If the zonal winds do not reverse, this won’t be a technical SSW. Albeit, that chart is 65 degrees North, it’s 60 degrees North we look at (I only noticed I made that mistake yesterday).

December 17, 2018

Summary

• The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently neutral and is predicted to straddle neutral right into the new year.
• The current neutral AO is reflective of mixed pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic and mixed pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently also near neutral with weak positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across Greenland and mixed pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic and is predicted to remain close to neutral over the next two weeks.
• Troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across much of Europe is bringing near seasonable temperatures to below normal temperatures currently but in general ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies will increasingly dominate much of Europe over the next two weeks resulting in normal to above normal temperatures starting in Western Europe including the United Kingdom (UK) and spreading eastward.
• Building ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered across Scandinavia and the Barents-Kara Seas will force downstream troughing/negative geopotential across large parts of Asia. Normal to below normal temperatures are mostly focused across Western Asia including much of the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent but will slowly spread eastward to eventually include Central and East Asia.
• Troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska will help to focus troughing in the western part of North America with mostly ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies downstream across eastern North America. Cold temperatures will be mostly confined to Alaska this week but will start spreading south and east first across western Canada and then the Western United States (US). Meanwhile temperatures will mostly average normal to above normal in Eastern Canada and the Eastern US.
• In the Impacts section, I discuss my observations for the large-scale pattern and temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere related to troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

source

Billcarson wrote: »

With a split vortex, highly likely we would get a cold spell. As soon as the decorations are down I reckon then the models will light up.

Artane2002 wrote: »

The ECM is showing a split again. The GFS and GFS Para aren't showing it. This Mexican standoff is getting really tiring at this stage... fingers crossed that the ECM humiliates the GFS/GFS(P)

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

@Sryan, I'm not sure if I'm reading these charts correctly, but this graphic would seem to imply a split of the entire vortex from top to bottom by Jan 6th:



Or are these charts confined exclusively to the strat? It's difficult to tell based on the scale used just how far down the modelling goes into the troposphere.

Captain Snow wrote: »

Who knew SSW would be the new Model Watching cause frankly Model Watching mess,s with your sanity.....:p

mikeecho wrote: »

Be kind.

Complete noob / idiot here.

What will this stratospheric warming have in store for us.

And how long before we know if it's gonna cause freezing temps. (Not even gonna ask about snow)

This forum was invaluable to me this year, I was able to look like a complete idiot buying salt / grit and a snow shovel, getting the oil tank filled, warning friends and family, and getting laughed at.

Who had the last laugh.. use boardsies