Tuesday

Francie Barrett · 09-09-2019 10:16pm #1

Kelso 7:10 - I don't see much difference in ability between most of this lot so am inclined to take Willie Mullins former inmate Iolani at the biggest price of the field at 12/1. Still only 7 and a proven course and distance winner, it should have no problem with conditions tomorrow (in fairness, none of the opposition will either).

Francie Barrett · 09-09-2019 10:24pm

Catt 5:10 - speaking of course and distance winners, Lydiate Lady won a few on the bounce a year back and after plenty of runs since is back down to workable mark. think 10/1 is a more than fair price on this two time c+d winner.

IAMAMORON · 10-09-2019 12:10pm

My picks for Listowel. I have no problem with picking a couple of horses per race, in case anyone starts cribbing. It is my money and they are my gumptions, names and all. All selections ew unless stated as win only.

2.05 Glint in her Eye, Glebe Girl
2.35 Donkey tours = no bet thankyou
3.05 De Mazzaro ew , All the Angels win only
3.35 Gardens of Nanylon win only, Hannon ew - a special mention for BlackhillsofDakota but the horse is 5lbs out of the handicap, it has won a listed bumper however.
4.05 Celtic Dancer win only , Live Every Day
4.40 Jack Dillinger - win only

Blinkers_off · 10-09-2019 12:44pm

2.05 lady ischia 4/1

del roy · 10-09-2019 12:55pm

nicked from elsewhere

Worcester 14.40 NAP - Byron Flyer Byron Flyer was last seen on the Flat finishing close up fourth in a 28k to the winner handicap at Newmarket off 104. Last time jumping he was joint favourite with Paisley Park for an Aintree handicap hurdle, receiving just 7lb from the future champion stayer. This small-field debut over fences should be nowhere near as testing as either and with good reports about his schooling, he has to be the nap.

Worcester 14.10 NB - Monty's Award Monty's Award has won two of his 12 races to date, both around here, a bumper on debut and a handicap hurdle last October. Before his summer break he ran over fences at Kempton, disappointing but with a partial explanation in that he lost a shoe during the race. If he can keep his shoes on today back at Worcester he could renew his love affair with the track.

Trainers views

Worcester 14.10 Monty's Award Monty's Award has a chance if he decides to put his best foot forward. Actually I expected him to win first time over fences but he never really got going. He likes Worcester though and I'm pretty hopeful today.

Worcester 14.40 Byron Flyer Byron Flyer, as we all know, is a decent performer both on the Flat and over hurdles. He's schooled very well over fences and Worcester is a nice track for a novice. This is a decent level of competition with two others to worry about but he should be there at the finish.

Worcester 16.10 Mergeela Mergeela is a winner of a bumper on fast ground at Wincanton but her two starts over hurdles have been dismal. She has had a break and the hope is that she has put those two runs behind her. This is very much the last chance saloon for her. She clearly needs to show something and on that bumper form she could possibly be placed at a big price.

Worcester 16.45 Cardy The drop back to 2m4f should suit Cardy at a track where she is a previous winner. She has been in really good form at home and we are looking forward to running her.

Worcester 16.45 Show's Over Show's Over is inconsistent but if he is enjoying himself during the race then he can put up a decent performance. He is fresh and well and could easily run into a place today.

Kelso 19.10 Canford Thompson Canford Thompson will enjoy the good ground and has run decent races at all types of track and under both codes. He has been consistent of late and is fairly handicapped. If on a going day he has to be thereabouts once again before going off on his holiday.

SonOfGoat · 10-09-2019 1:06pm

1.55 Catterick, Pretty Lady, around 3/1 and a lay bet for me. I've looked at the pedigree of most of the race and a lot more are arguably better bred. I have the horse priced up around 9/1 and I think the only reason it's so low is it's from the MJ yard.

2.05 Listowel, Blazing Emily, around 6/4'ish. I've backed this to win and it's my best bet of the day/evening. It stood out a mile the horse wanted further last time out and when I saw it was over 2m4f today I got stuck in for the win.

2.20 Leicester, Woodhouse, around 11/8'ish. How this horse is so low in the betting is beyond me. I've been laying for the past while and I honestly can't see it winning. This was vying for my best bet of the day. The horse stayed on over 6f last time and running over 7f which seems fine, but I get the feeling the horse would be better over 5f or 6f on fast going, ran on soft last time. Definite lay

2.35 Listowel, Alice Obyrne, around 5/2. I've been laying this too. Again I can't see it winning. There is hype around and the price is falling lower and lower. I wouldn't be surprised if it starts 6/4 or thereabouts. If it does go that low I'm going back in again to lay.

2.50 Leicester, Warning Shot, around 15/8 and I think that is a very good price. I backed it to win. I think this horse could be something special.

Looks a good day's racing and hopefully nice profit to be made. 2 more bets lined up for the early evening depending in results.

Good luck to anyone betting today.

realdanbreen · 10-09-2019 1:51pm

Tapis Libre Catterick 5.45 14-1 and Bog war listowel 4.05 25-1 the two big value ew bats today.

Blinkers_off · 10-09-2019 1:55pm

3.05 de mazzaro 14/1
3.35 Gardens of babylon 6/1
4.05 Live every day 12/1
5.15 The little yank 9/1

bookman2 · 10-09-2019 2:43pm

SonOfGoat wrote: »

1.55 Catterick, Pretty Lady, around 3/1 and a lay bet for me. I've looked at the pedigree of most of the race and a lot more are arguably better bred. I have the horse priced up around 9/1 and I think the only reason it's so low is it's from the MJ yard.

2.05 Listowel, Blazing Emily, around 6/4'ish. I've backed this to win and it's my best bet of the day/evening. It stood out a mile the horse wanted further last time out and when I saw it was over 2m4f today I got stuck in for the win.

2.20 Leicester, Woodhouse, around 11/8'ish. How this horse is so low in the betting is beyond me. I've been laying for the past while and I honestly can't see it winning. This was vying for my best bet of the day. The horse stayed on over 6f last time and running over 7f which seems fine, but I get the feeling the horse would be better over 5f or 6f on fast going, ran on soft last time. Definite lay

2.35 Listowel, Alice Obyrne, around 5/2. I've been laying this too. Again I can't see it winning. There is hype around and the price is falling lower and lower. I wouldn't be surprised if it starts 6/4 or thereabouts. If it does go that low I'm going back in again to lay.

2.50 Leicester, Warning Shot, around 15/8 and I think that is a very good price. I backed it to win. I think this horse could be something special.

Looks a good day's racing and hopefully nice profit to be made. 2 more bets lined up for the early evening depending in results.

Good luck to anyone betting today.

unreal stuff. hope you get last one up too.

longshotvalue · 10-09-2019 2:49pm

I'm failing at convincing myself that i shouldn't back Gardens of Babylon. Because when he wins ill be annoyed i didn't:rolleyes:. Fair bit of weight to give away, but it probably should be more.

SonOfGoat · 10-09-2019 2:49pm

Thanks. I have it doubled up with Blazing Emily too and backed in a single. It'll be a nice payout if it gets home. I can't see any reason why it shouldn't win, but looking forward to the race.

bookman2 · 10-09-2019 2:58pm

SonOfGoat wrote: »

Thanks. I have it doubled up with Blazing Emily too and backed in a single. It'll be a nice payout if it gets home. I can't see any reason why it shouldn't win, but looking forward to the race.

well you cant complain --anyday that you get 4 out of 5 bets right must be a good day!

SonOfGoat · 10-09-2019 3:18pm

Yeah it was a good day, would have been a whole lot better if that had got home in front.

I'll have one more bet for the day and I'm out til tomorrow.

3.20 Leicester, Isobar Wind, around 13/8, a definite lay for me. I can't see the horse winning and I really don't like Murphy as a jockey so that's a bonus too.

Good luck to anyone who's still betting on. Still looks a few nice opportunities to make a few bob.

I'm out

BigStickMick · 10-09-2019 3:46pm

Goaty McGoatface smashing up the bookies, you just love to see it.

2ndcoming · 10-09-2019 4:55pm

SonOfGoat wrote: »

Yeah it was a good day, would have been a whole lot better if that had got home in front.

I'll have one more bet for the day and I'm out til tomorrow.

3.20 Leicester, Isobar Wind, around 13/8, a definite lay for me. I can't see the horse winning and I really don't like Murphy as a jockey so that's a bonus too.

Good luck to anyone who's still betting on. Still looks a few nice opportunities to make a few bob.

I'm out

For someone who consistently lays short price favs there's probably an obvious reason for that... always trying and win hungry, will win many jockey championships.

IAMAMORON · 10-09-2019 5:20pm

That winner of the bumper in Listowel has a future, Soviet Pimpernel.

SonOfGoat · 10-09-2019 5:53pm

2ndcoming wrote: »

For someone who consistently lays short price favs there's probably an obvious reason for that... always trying and win hungry, will win many jockey championships.

I had this debate before. Murphy gets the good rides but time and time again I've seen him make a complete balls of things.

I remember he made a balls of luca cumani last ever runner, finished like a train.

Each to their own, I just can't stand him.

SonOfGoat · 10-09-2019 6:01pm

I might have one more bet in the 6.40, that I hadn't planned to.

In the 6.10, that Honourable Gent, how in the name of christ it's 3/1 is beyond me. I had it priced around 8/1. I'm not betting in the race, just watching but for a mediocre horse and after 356 days off the track, hasn't a hope.

BigStickMick · 10-09-2019 6:29pm

SonOfGoat wrote: »

I might have one more bet in the 6.40, that I hadn't planned to.

In the 6.10, that Honourable Gent, how in the name of christ it's 3/1 is beyond me. I had it priced around 8/1. I'm not betting in the race, just watching but for a mediocre horse and after 356 days off the track, hasn't a hope.

Made the right call not having a bet there, fair play

SonOfGoat · 10-09-2019 6:39pm

It was a pretty good days racing. Its great to have decent ground. I remember many years around this time heavy going and it messes things up.

I will have one final bet this evening.

6.40 Kelso, Winding Roe, around 8/15 - 1/2, I've layed the horse. The 2nd fav is totally unexposed, where as winding roe I feel is exposed over the distance of 2m6f. If it was bigger in price I wouldn't have bet but at 1/2 I have to lay it.

I'm out

BumperD · 10-09-2019 6:51pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

That winner of the bumper in Listowel has a future, Soviet Pimpernel.

They turned down 100-150k at Tatts sales march Cheltenham when I was there.

IAMAMORON · 10-09-2019 7:16pm

Goat I had you on an ROI of 10.91 % after a daily investment of 70 pts, that's at 10 pts a bet / lay.

Your bust now however, after that odds on lay just cost you. I have you on a daily loss of 8.12 points after an investment of 80 points with a negative ROI of 10.15 %.

You also advised against a 3 to 1 shot that won by 6 lengths.

Better luck tomorrow.

IAMAMORON · 10-09-2019 7:21pm

I think you should also maybe consider that Oisin Murphy is riding for some of the biggest trainers in the world, it is not a fluke and I would have to imagine that he isn't getting those rides by chance either.

The concept that he is an trustworthy jockey is garbage, they cannot win them all, but it does look like John Gosden, Andrew Balding and Archie Watson aren't sharing your pessimism for his abilities.

del roy · 10-09-2019 7:38pm

del roy wrote: »

nicked from elsewhere

Worcester 14.40 NAP - Byron Flyer Byron Flyer was last seen on the Flat finishing close up fourth in a 28k to the winner handicap at Newmarket off 104. Last time jumping he was joint favourite with Paisley Park for an Aintree handicap hurdle, receiving just 7lb from the future champion stayer. This small-field debut over fences should be nowhere near as testing as either and with good reports about his schooling, he has to be the nap.
won 11/8

Worcester 14.10 NB - Monty's Award Monty's Award has won two of his 12 races to date, both around here, a bumper on debut and a handicap hurdle last October. Before his summer break he ran over fences at Kempton, disappointing but with a partial explanation in that he lost a shoe during the race. If he can keep his shoes on today back at Worcester he could renew his love affair with the track. 2nd 15/8

Trainers views

Worcester 14.10 Monty's Award Monty's Award has a chance if he decides to put his best foot forward. Actually I expected him to win first time over fences but he never really got going. He likes Worcester though and I'm pretty hopeful today.

Worcester 14.40 Byron Flyer Byron Flyer, as we all know, is a decent performer both on the Flat and over hurdles. He's schooled very well over fences and Worcester is a nice track for a novice. This is a decent level of competition with two others to worry about but he should be there at the finish.

Worcester 16.10 Mergeela Mergeela is a winner of a bumper on fast ground at Wincanton but her two starts over hurdles have been dismal. She has had a break and the hope is that she has put those two runs behind her. This is very much the last chance saloon for her. She clearly needs to show something and on that bumper form she could possibly be placed at a big price.

Worcester 16.45 Cardy The drop back to 2m4f should suit Cardy at a track where she is a previous winner. She has been in really good form at home and we are looking forward to running her.

Worcester 16.45 Show's Over Show's Over is inconsistent but if he is enjoying himself during the race then he can put up a decent performance. He is fresh and well and could easily run into a place today. won 9/1

Kelso 19.10 Canford Thompson Canford Thompson will enjoy the good ground and has run decent races at all types of track and under both codes. He has been consistent of late and is fairly handicapped. If on a going day he has to be thereabouts once again before going off on his holiday.

won 9/4

Tuesday

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