Is now a bad time to buy?

RisingDamp · 01-08-2018 10:39am #1

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

01-08-2018 10:50am

Nobody has a crystal ball. If you find a property you like, in an area that you like, for a price you can afford then my opinion is just go ahead and buy.

And don't fall into the trap of going looking for answers that you want to hear. Nobody knows what the market will look like in 2020.

Quaderno · 01-08-2018 1:13pm

Jerry Black Teardrop wrote: »

Nobody has a crystal ball.

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

M.Cribben · 01-08-2018 1:27pm

Quaderno wrote: »

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

Same could be said if prices rise by 10% in the same timeframe. "Damn, why did I not buy a year ago and save myself a 5 figure sum". Nobody can predict the market and nobody can confidently say where we are in relation to the peak or trough of a cycle. Like previous poster said, if you find a property you like in an area you like, and plan to stay long-term and can afford the deposit+mortgage repayments then that is a good time to buy.

01-08-2018 1:41pm

Quaderno wrote: »

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

You're literally crystal ball gazing here!

You wait a year, then you decide to wait for the next shock and the next one and the next one. You could be waiting forever. I stand by what I said in my previous post, if a property, location and price all align then go for it.

pwurple · 01-08-2018 1:57pm

Well, are you mortgage or a cash buyer?

If it's for you to live in, and you need a mortgage, buy when you can and don't over extend. I've bought 5 properties over the last 20 years. Some at the height of the boom, after a crash, some in the middle. No financial problems with any of them. It only matters if you over extend. The most difficult purchase was actually right after the crash when the market was rock bottom. Both myself and spouse were working full time, had a deposit from sale of a house of around 50% what we wanted to buy, and the mortgage approval process would only give us 1* one persons salary because they assumed unemployment was on the way. We wanted 1.5 x both. And the rent we were paying was twice what they approved. None of this 3.5* both combined that you get now, 5 years later.
Point is, you can't assume the bank will still be lending when you need it if you're hoping for a crash.

Quaderno · 01-08-2018 2:15pm

M.Cribben wrote: »

Same could be said if prices rise by 10% in the same timeframe. "Damn, why did I not buy a year ago and save myself a 5 figure sum".

No, on a psychological level that would be quite different. You would know why you made the decision you made (as in not buying earlier to avoid a substantial risk to the market) and you would now look at a fairly healthy market ahead of you. Most people could handle that "loss" quite well, no least because they would be in positive equity going forward. That is what we have had for the last 5+ years.
If, on the other hand, things fail to turn out well you will have to ask yourself if the situation you find yourself in could have been avoided. And the answer would clearly be yes. And that's the tough part.
The warning signs are lit, proceed with caution.

M.Cribben · 01-08-2018 2:25pm

Quaderno wrote: »

No, on a psychological level that would be quite different. You would know why you made the decision you made (as in not buying earlier to avoid a substantial risk to the market) and you would now look at a fairly healthy market ahead of you. Most people could handle that "loss" quite well, no least because they would be in positive equity going forward. That is what we have had for the last 5+ years.
If, on the other hand, things fail to turn out well you will have to ask yourself if the situation you find yourself in could have been avoided. And the answer would clearly be yes. And that's the tough part.
The warning signs are lit, proceed with caution.

positive/negative equity does not matter when you are buying a property to live in for 25+ years. Property prices have been changing by significant annual %'s for decades now. You would drive yourself mad tracking them after buying, it's a futile task. If you like the house and the area, and can afford the repayments what does it matter what % equity you have in the house? People only have 2 choices regarding accommodation - buy or rent. Historically in Ireland if you bought ANY time in the last 100 years you are in a better financial position than those who chose renting as an alternative.

GingerLily · 01-08-2018 2:42pm

pwurple wrote: »

Well, are you mortgage or a cash buyer?

.......

Point is, you can't assume the bank will still be lending when you need it if you're hoping for a crash.

This!!!! It's amazing how people overlook this fact time and time again

M.Cribben · 01-08-2018 2:49pm

GingerLily wrote: »

This!!!! It's amazing how people overlook this fact time and time again

As I said in another thread, even cash buyers run scared when prices are falling 10-15% a year. The "I'll just wait another year and get it cheaper" mentality kicks in. And very few, (if any) people can accurately call the top or bottom of the market. The ones who can are probably extremely wealthy now.

01-08-2018 2:51pm

GingerLily wrote: »

This!!!! It's amazing how people overlook this fact time and time again

Another thing that gets overlooked is the price of renting has to be deducted from any potential savings you'd make from waiting.

If you're paying 1.5k per month in Dublin (for a couple) that's 18k per year that you're spending while waiting for house prices to possibly move.

Samuel T. Cogley · 01-08-2018 3:33pm

If you can get a house you can live in for 20 years + at a reasonable mortgage relative to your income go for it. Negativce equity/massive posative equity is cyclical and only effects you if you need to move.

TheShow · 01-08-2018 4:04pm

depends on what your purpose is - if its a house to live in, then the ultimate value should not be of much concern, as long as you can afford it.

If for investment purposes, then its a different story.

tradesman · 02-08-2018 7:16am

As Samuel T Cogley said earlier. It only affects you if you have to sell in a downturn. Most rents are more than mortgage repayments anyway. If you like the house & can afford the repayments then the time is right to buy

smurgen · 02-08-2018 7:37am

Jerry Black Teardrop wrote: »

GingerLily wrote: »

This!!!! It's amazing how people overlook this fact time and time again

Another thing that gets overlooked is the price of renting has to be deducted from any potential savings you'd make from waiting.

If you're paying 1.5k per month in Dublin (for a couple) that's 18k per year that you're spending while waiting for house prices to possibly move.

But if you but at the wrong time you will spend years paying off.excess mortgage interest before making a dent in the principle

Q&A · 02-08-2018 7:41am

smurgen wrote: »

But if you but at the wrong time you will spend years paying off.excess mortgage interest before making a dent in the principle

How is this different if you buy at the "right time"?

This is just how mortgages work. To make a dent just overpay.

smurgen · 02-08-2018 8:05am

Q&A wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

But if you but at the wrong time you will spend years paying off.excess mortgage interest before making a dent in the principle

How is this different if you buy at the "right time"?

This is just how mortgages work. To make a dent just overpay.

Lower cost smaller mortgage,smaller interest repayments.

limnam · 02-08-2018 8:09am

RisingDamp wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

The "right" time to buy rarely changes.

It's usually when you find the house you really want and can comfortably afford to buy it.

In relation to buying a home that is.

triple nipple · 02-08-2018 8:11am

RisingDamp wrote:

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

Do you only plan to live in it till 2020?

adriaaaan · 02-08-2018 8:25am

Quaderno wrote: »

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

Brexit won't happen. And right now prices are growing at 12% a year. A slowdown would have them growing at say 7-9% a year. Still growing. It will take a major shock to go from 12% growth to 10% reduction which I am guessing the OP is looking for. and as a poster mentioned banks won't be lending 3.5 LTI in a falling market

smurgen · 02-08-2018 8:27am

adriaaaan wrote: »

Quaderno wrote: »

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

Brexit won't happen. And right now prices are growing at 12% a year. A slowdown would have them growing at say 7-9% a year. Still growing. It will take a major shock to go from 12% growth to 10% reduction which I am guessing the OP is looking for. and as a poster mentioned banks won't be lending 3.5 LTI in a falling market

When people start to talk with such certainty you know it's time to wait and see rather than make a foolish move.

z0oT · 02-08-2018 8:28am

I used to think that one could hold out for a huge crash, profit hugely from having a lot of gold and easily convert it all into property easily.

I've come to realize that predicting a crash (or huge bubble-like run up) in any market is nearly impossible to do so. The other thing is even if you can predict it, are you really going to turn 20/30/40/50k (reasonable long-term savings figures for most here) into 200/300/400k? And even if you did, you would get hit with a huge chunk of Capital Gains Tax.

The other thing that others have pointed out here, is that you're likely going to need some form of mortgage, and if there's a financial crises then credit isn't available easily. 200/300/400k isn't something that you're likely to have to hand.

I think I echo the sentiments of others here, you'll never predict "The Right Time To Buy". If you find somewhere you like in a nice area you would like to stay and if it's comfortably affordable without a crazy term time (my wife and I are hoping for just 15 years, which would put us mortgage free in our mid 40's), then go for it.

Glenbhoy · 02-08-2018 8:30am

There's also the probability that supply (reckoned by many to be the key determinant of recent increases) will increase significantly over the next 2 years, against that, it's very likely that interest rates will rise again, possibly impacting on borrowing capacity!
My own tuppenceworth, more potential downward pressures on the horizon than upsides, I'd be happy to defer, but you takes your chances........

blue note · 02-08-2018 9:04am

Jerry Black Teardrop wrote: »

Another thing that gets overlooked is the price of renting has to be deducted from any potential savings you'd make from waiting.

If you're paying 1.5k per month in Dublin (for a couple) that's 18k per year that you're spending while waiting for house prices to possibly move.

This is what's driving me to buy at the moment. I'm worried that I'll buy a place that we could have gotten for €50k less in 5 years time, but if I wait 5 years we'll have paid close to €100k in that time. I'll have paid the difference of €50k on interest in that time, but I'll be living in a nice house that I want to live in instead of a pokey 2 bed flat.

lawred2 · 02-08-2018 9:05am

RisingDamp wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

It could be

It might not be

You are asking people to tell the future

baldbear · 02-08-2018 9:12am

RisingDamp wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

Feck the market. Its personal circumstances that count.

Property prices could rise they could fall. But don't think about that. Just look at what is going on with you now. Is it the right time to buy for you?

How much is your rent? How much would your mortgage be? Have you a partner, kids? Savings to actually get a mortgage?

Us, our rent was €1100 for a 1 bed. We were having a kid & bought & our mortgage is €1000 for a 3 bed. It was the right time for us.

Mantis Toboggan · 02-08-2018 9:14am

Glenbhoy wrote: »

There's also the probability that supply (reckoned by many to be the key determinant of recent increases) will increase significantly over the next 2 years, against that, it's very likely that interest rates will rise again, possibly impacting on borrowing capacity!
My own tuppenceworth, more potential downward pressures on the horizon than upsides, I'd be happy to defer, but you takes your chances........

But what do you plan to do for the next 3 or 4 years until you see what way the market is going?

Are you still living at home?

Or are you renting?

I've just moved from a dump to a brand new house and my mortgage is 300 euro less per month. Buying was a no brainer for me.

SNNUS · 02-08-2018 9:29am

smurgen wrote: »

When people start to talk with such certainty you know it's time to wait and see rather than make a foolish move.

You are the one talking with such certainty surely?

02-08-2018 9:45am

smurgen wrote: »

When people start to talk with such certainty you know it's time to wait and see rather than make a foolish move.

What are you on about? If finding a good place to live for me and my family for the next few decades is a foolish move then I'm the biggest fool in the village and I'm fine with that.

awec · 02-08-2018 9:45am

The thing people never seem to grasp is the reason property is cheap during a "crash" is because it's really difficult to buy. Ultimately the price of property is determined by the availability of buyers.

Also people seem to be predicting the extremes. What we saw in 2007 was absolutely exceptional, with huge percentage drops in property prices. Every time the media talk about a slow down, or a drop in prices, people seem to think we'll be seeing 2007 all over again.

Much more likely, IMO, is that supply eventually catches up and we see prices level off and very gradually start to come down. But this is years away.

cruizer101 · 02-08-2018 10:07am

A lot of it comes down to where you are in life also, if you are young enough and just kind of considering it there might be no harm is waiting a bit to see what might happen, during the last boom a lot of young people were encouraged to get on the property ladder as soon as possible which was bad advice.
But if you older and planning starting family in near future at all, may as well buy when you find a house you like. So what if prices go down you should only be buying a house you would be happy to live in for the forseeable future anyway so once you can manage they payments the value doesn't really matter.
A house is much more than an investment it is your home.

lawred2 · 02-08-2018 10:11am

cruizer101 wrote: »

A lot of it comes down to where you are in life also, if you are young enough and just kind of considering it there might be no harm is waiting a bit to see what might happen, during the last boom a lot of young people were encouraged to get on the property ladder as soon as possible which was bad advice.
But if you older and planning starting family in near future at all, may as well buy when you find a house you like. So what if prices go down you should only be buying a house you would be happy to live in for the forseeable future anyway so once you can manage they payments the value doesn't really matter.
A house is much more than an investment it is your home.

It wasn't bad advice

Calling it bad advice now is just 20:20 hindsight

gct · 02-08-2018 11:06am

Everyone will go through rough patches as a homeowner what with interest rates changing, negative equity etc. but the upside is in 25 years no more mortgage and no more rent. Do You really want to be a pensioner still struggling to pay ever increasing rents on a meagre pension?

smurgen · 02-08-2018 12:22pm

SNNUS wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

When people start to talk with such certainty you know it's time to wait and see rather than make a foolish move.

You are the one talking with such certainty surely?

"Brexit won't happen" that's the certainty i'm quoting.

smurgen · 02-08-2018 12:24pm

gct wrote: »

Everyone will go through rough patches as a homeowner what with interest rates changing, negative equity etc. but the upside is in 25 years no more mortgage and no more rent. Do You really want to be a pensioner still struggling to pay ever increasing rents on a meagre pension?

You don't own a house until it's fully paid.could be old with a morgage and little or no income facing repossesion.

GingerLily · 02-08-2018 12:26pm

smurgen wrote: »

But if you but at the wrong time you will spend years paying off.excess mortgage interest before making a dent in the principle

Not if your mortgage is similar to rent anyway - my three bed semi house costs me only 100e more than my 1bed apartment to rent - there's a cost to not buying too!

smurgen · 02-08-2018 12:26pm

awec wrote: »

The thing people never seem to grasp is the reason property is cheap during a "crash" is because it's really difficult to buy. Ultimately the price of property is determined by the availability of buyers.

Also people seem to be predicting the extremes. What we saw in 2007 was absolutely exceptional, with huge percentage drops in property prices. Every time the media talk about a slow down, or a drop in prices, people seem to think we'll be seeing 2007 all over again.

Much more likely, IMO, is that supply eventually catches up and we see prices level off and very gradually start to come down. But this is years away.

What are you talking about? The set of circumstances we are facing now is exceptional.when was the last brexit?

smurgen · 02-08-2018 12:28pm

GingerLily wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

But if you but at the wrong time you will spend years paying off.excess mortgage interest before making a dent in the principle

Not if your mortgage is similar to rent anyway - my three bed semi house costs me only 100e more than my 1bed apartment to rent - there's a cost to not buying too!

If you lose your job you can move when renting though.i suppose now you can just post keys back to the bank.

GingerLily · 02-08-2018 12:33pm

smurgen wrote: »

If you lose your job you can move when renting though.i suppose now you can just post keys back to the bank.

And where would I live? I have more rights as a mortgage owner if I try engage with that bank then I would as a renter.

And I can rent out the two spare rooms - 14k a year tax free, that would cover most of the mortgage.

Edit to add - it's not an ideal situation but when is losing your job ever easy?

smurgen · 02-08-2018 12:47pm

GingerLily wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

If you lose your job you can move when renting though.i suppose now you can just post keys back to the bank.

And where would I live? I have more rights as a mortgage owner if I try engage with that bank then I would as a renter.

And I can rent out the two spare rooms - 14k a year tax free, that would cover most of the mortgage.

Edit to add - it's not an ideal situation but when is losing your job ever easy?

If the economy collapses you won't have demand on your rental property.you'll ne paying that mortage alone.

Jet Black · 02-08-2018 12:48pm

Another question you have to ask is where are the properties you are going to buy if a recession hits? The last one wiped out all the buy to let, speculators and new builds. Over the last ten years most bought a home to live in so they won't be getting kicked out and wont be able to sell. Theres sweet FA happening with new builds and if a recession hits that will be zero. Considering the lack of rental properties now, which will only get lower each year, they won't be getting sold either.

Mike Hoch · 02-08-2018 12:49pm

There is no viable reason that house prices will dramatically fall at any time soon. We will reach a stage where they will plateau. More new homes built = the plateauing or slight decline in the value of existing homes. It has started to happen already, and I'd imagine it will become more obvious in the next 18 months to 2 years. Brexit will have zero negative impact on the Irish economy trade wise.

There is no impending economic crash. It's a baseless conspiracy theory peddled by Gemma O'Doherty, Ruth Coppinger, and various other economic illiterates from the moan and whinge parties, as without an economic crisis or a housing crisis these snake oil merchants have no pitch to sell. Ireland has close to ten years of backlogged construction to initiate, and it has only picked up a steady pace since last year. There will be a building boom, but a within our means building boom. As long as the 3.5 income to lending rule is kept there is no reason to see an explosion in house prices.

GingerLily · 02-08-2018 12:58pm

smurgen wrote: »

If the economy collapses you won't have demand on your rental property.you'll ne paying that mortage alone.

If I lose my job and there's a collapse I'm screwed either way - can you explain why renting would be better for me?

smurgen · 02-08-2018 1:01pm

Mike Hoch wrote: »

There is no viable reason that house prices will dramatically fall at any time soon. We will reach a stage where they will plateau. More new homes built = the plateauing or slight decline in the value of existing homes. It has started to happen already, and I'd imagine it will become more obvious in the next 18 months to 2 years. Brexit will have zero negative impact on the Irish economy trade wise.

There is no impending economic crash. It's a baseless conspiracy theory peddled by Gemma O'Doherty, Ruth Coppinger, and various other economic illiterates from the moan and whinge parties, as without an economic crisis or a housing crisis these snake oil merchants have no pitch to sell. Ireland has close to ten years of backlogged construction to initiate, and it has only picked up a steady pace since last year. There will be a building boom, but a within our means building boom. As long as the 3.5 income to lending rule is kept there is no reason to see an explosion in house prices.

Head of the Federal reserve gave a slowdown warning last week as did the head of the Bundesbank.Bank of England raising interest rates today and equity markets rolling back.Ireland is an exposed economy and we are very dependant on only a few companies and the risks are high. That's without even going into talks of brexit,trade wars or supply increases. https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-reliance-on-five-huge-multinationals-is-a-threat-to-the-economy-1.3582410?mode=amp

awec · 02-08-2018 1:04pm

smurgen wrote: »

If the economy collapses you won't have demand on your rental property.you'll ne paying that mortage alone.

If the economy collapses there will be much bigger issues than her mortgage.

smurgen · 02-08-2018 1:06pm

awec wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

If the economy collapses you won't have demand on your rental property.you'll ne paying that mortage alone.

If the economy collapses there will be much bigger issues than her mortgage.

Not for her personally though.

Beta Ray Bill · 02-08-2018 1:14pm

RisingDamp wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

Hi OP

Lots of people talking on here about The Market and Brexit

Ultimately it's down to you whether you think it's a good time to buy or not.

If you are living at home and everything is going ok with the folks, you've no kids or family and you're happy to keep saving, then now would not be a good time to buy for you.
Regardless of whether the prices go up or down you'll still be able to keep saving and saving, the prices will come down at some point but technically, that could be 10 years from now.

If you are renting and have just manged to save enough for a deposit, and you have a family (kids) and a good job and want the security of your own house and you plan to live in this house for the foreseeable future, then now would be a good time to buy. As having security for your family out weighs the hassle of renting (You can't put a price on hassle)

Totally depends on your situation.

LuckyLloyd · 02-08-2018 1:28pm

awec wrote: »

The thing people never seem to grasp is the reason property is cheap during a "crash" is because it's really difficult to buy. Ultimately the price of property is determined by the availability of buyers.

Also people seem to be predicting the extremes. What we saw in 2007 was absolutely exceptional, with huge percentage drops in property prices. Every time the media talk about a slow down, or a drop in prices, people seem to think we'll be seeing 2007 all over again.

Much more likely, IMO, is that supply eventually catches up and we see prices level off and very gradually start to come down. But this is years away.

I think the issue is Brexit and Nationalist economic game playing by the States and China might force a negative jobs reaction that affects Ireland square in the jaw. In that scenario:

a) demand will significantly deteriorate
b) someone buying now may be on the hook for a mortgage in a declining market while out of work themselves or taking employment at less than their current salary

The fact of the property market itself don't necessarily matter in such a context. It won't be a 'property bubble', but prices will be tumbling all the same. You could lock yourself in at a bad price with no flexibility to up sticks and move when you need it the most.

The other side as pointed out in this thread is of course that you have to live somewhere and if you can afford the price of something that fits your needs long term go on ahead. I think the reality is most buyers are working off the min deposit and the max borrowings available compared to their income so those people are - by default - stretching themselves.

If you held a strong deposit relative to what you wanted to buy and were borrowing less than the max for something that you really like, go for it. But in that scenario you are particularly primed to benefit from a drop off in prices. Typically that's not the case though.

oceanman · 02-08-2018 1:29pm

awec wrote: »

The thing people never seem to grasp is the reason property is cheap during a "crash" is because it's really difficult to buy. Ultimately the price of property is determined by the availability of buyers.

Also people seem to be predicting the extremes. What we saw in 2007 was absolutely exceptional, with huge percentage drops in property prices. Every time the media talk about a slow down, or a drop in prices, people seem to think we'll be seeing 2007 all over again.

Much more likely, IMO, is that supply eventually catches up and we see prices level off and very gradually start to come down. But this is years away.

a soft landing!

LuckyLloyd · 02-08-2018 1:30pm

Mike Hoch wrote: »

There is no viable reason that house prices will dramatically fall at any time soon. We will reach a stage where they will plateau. More new homes built = the plateauing or slight decline in the value of existing homes. It has started to happen already, and I'd imagine it will become more obvious in the next 18 months to 2 years. Brexit will have zero negative impact on the Irish economy trade wise.

There is no impending economic crash. It's a baseless conspiracy theory peddled by Gemma O'Doherty, Ruth Coppinger, and various other economic illiterates from the moan and whinge parties, as without an economic crisis or a housing crisis these snake oil merchants have no pitch to sell. Ireland has close to ten years of backlogged construction to initiate, and it has only picked up a steady pace since last year. There will be a building boom, but a within our means building boom. As long as the 3.5 income to lending rule is kept there is no reason to see an explosion in house prices.

This is the type of bullish post that might be oft quoted in three year's time!

The Student · 02-08-2018 1:37pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think the issue is Brexit and Nationalist economic game playing by the States and China might force a negative jobs reaction that affects Ireland square in the jaw. In that scenario:

a) demand will significantly deteriorate
b) someone buying now may be on the hook for a mortgage in a declining market while out of work themselves or taking employment at less than their current salary

The fact of the property market itself don't necessarily matter in such a context. It won't be a 'property bubble', but prices will be tumbling all the same. You could lock yourself in at a bad price with no flexibility to up sticks and move when you need it the most.

The other side as pointed out in this thread is of course that you have to live somewhere and if you can afford the price of something that fits your needs long term go on ahead. I think the reality is most buyers are working off the min deposit and the max borrowings available compared to their income so those people are - by default - stretching themselves.

If you held a strong deposit relative to what you wanted to buy and were borrowing less than the max for something that you really like, go for it. But in that scenario you are particularly primed to benefit from a drop off in prices. Typically that's not the case though.

I am not sure property prices will "tumble". The last bubble we had impacted on the banks because they did not have the capital reserves to continue operating.

With the new lending criteria and the fact that the European Central bank is monitoring what all banks are doing will result in the situation that the same € is not being loaned out by multiple banks (as what happened in the crash).

As a result of the crash banks had to "clean up" their balance sheets and non performing loans which is why the loans are being sold to Vulture funds (a fresh injection of capital to the banks).

My own view is that prices will stabilize with additional supply coming on board, if people do go into negative equity assuming they are paying their mortgage then there is no issue. If they cant afford the full mortgage then the banks (with the capital reserves they now have) will extend the life of the mortgage until the mortgage payer's situation improves.

I can't see another property crash like the last one. This however is a personal opinion but the current property and financial sector are far removed from the one that existed up to 2008.

Is now a bad time to buy?

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