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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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Comments

  • #1952
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    For the rest of the academic year it seems which means not until September 2021.

    I wonder what the prices will be for tourists and renters - the price of a student room in a Uninest place in Dublin https://www.daft.ie/ireland/residential-property-for-rent/?s%5Bagent_id%5D=11882&s%5Bp%5D=qptpwptr seems to be 1000-1100 per month. I'm not sure who that would be aimed at as the professional workers could afford to share in a nice 2/3 bed for around that and the part-time working, English language student definitely couldn't afford that.

    It will have to be cheaper than what it would be to rent a room in a 2 bed I would have thought. Seeing as there are now nice 2 beds coming on stream for less than 2k I think they might have to pitch these in the 700-800 range?


  • #1953
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    It will have to be cheaper than what it would be to rent a room in a 2 bed I would have thought. Seeing as there are now nice 2 beds coming on stream for less than 2k I think they might have to pitch these in the 700-800 range?

    You would think so but look at the new build / newly renovated places owned by funds. They don't want the rent to go below a certain level despite having huge numbers of vacancies (Kennedy Wilson, Greystar etc.) so are not reducing the rent. If these student accommodations offered 700/800 for tourists and renters, will they be tied to these for the new academic year?


  • #1954
    rightmove
    Registered Users Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭rightmove


    surely there is a huge reduction in tourists so that part of the argument is not major. However if I had purchased a 1 or 2 bed apt close to where these are i would probably feel somewhat aggrieved since this is a blindsided way to devalue my property.


  • #1955
    nerrad01
    Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭nerrad01


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    You would think so but look at the new build / newly renovated places owned by funds. They don't want the rent to go below a certain level despite having huge numbers of vacancies (Kennedy Wilson, Greystar etc.) so are not reducing the rent. If these student accommodations offered 700/800 for tourists and renters, will they be tied to these for the new academic year?


    Imagine the absolutely crazy idea of making these pension funds/ reit`s pay tax on vacant properties that they are using to basically manipulate and price fix the rental market. What an absolutely great time to try correct the rental market, that the government will no doubt squander.

    Also major kickback from the hotel federation as these student properties will directly impact them


  • #1956
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    rightmove wrote: »
    surely there is a huge reduction in tourists so that part of the argument is not major. However if I had purchased a 1 or 2 bed apt close to where these are i would probably feel somewhat aggrieved since this is a blindsided way to devalue my property.

    If you had a 1 or 2 bed close to these apartments, you probably had your mortgage covered and then some with the rents being achieved the last few years. A year or five where rent is below the cost of the mortgage is hardly a big deal in the lifetime of the investment.

    Although, to be honest you'd find it hard to get any traction politically by complaining about having to reduce your rent as a landlord.


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  • #1957
    Lux23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,134 ✭✭✭Lux23


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    In a housing crisis, this should be good news as it increases supply in the short-term. So I wonder what the actual basis for objections could be - if people don't like them they don't need to rent them.

    .

    I suppose the objection is that it isn't ideal to share a kitchen with lots of other people in normal times nevermind during a pandemic. I guess you don't have to worry about that, do you?


  • #1958
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    nerrad01 wrote: »
    Imagine the absolutely crazy idea of making these pension funds/ reit`s pay tax on vacant properties that they are using to basically manipulate and price fix the rental market. What an absolutely great time to try correct the rental market, that the government will no doubt squander.

    Also major kickback from the hotel federation as these student properties will directly impact them

    Absolutely, talk about kicking the industry in the mouth. The article has a quote from the industry representative group at the bottom of it pointing out the negative effect on them for allowing tourists into these student accommodations.

    From looking on Booking.com for a room Friday 4th December in Dublin, it's pretty clear that no tourists or people in general have booked in to hotels. Airbnb has 300 places (rooms and full places) available that night.


  • #1959
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    Absolutely, talk about kicking the industry in the mouth. The article has a quote from the industry representative group at the bottom of it pointing out the negative effect on them for allowing tourists into these student accommodations.

    From looking on Booking.com for a room Friday 4th December in Dublin, it's pretty clear that no tourists or people in general have booked in to hotels. Airbnb has 300 places (rooms and full places) available that night.

    Only 300? Seems low


  • #1960
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Only 300? Seems low

    It said "300+" but when I scrolled to the last page I only counted 300.


  • #1961
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    It said "300+" but when I scrolled to the last page I only counted 300.

    Will be interesting to see the impact this has on the existing STL market.


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  • #1962
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/struggling-rental-market-could-usher-in-next-american-housing-crisis-11603791000?mod=djemwhatsnews
    Struggling Rental Market Could Usher in Next American Housing Crisis

    I'm not a subscriber but it is discussed here https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/crashing-rental-market-could-set-next-housing-crisis

    Eerily similar to the Irish rental market crash that is happening, even though it relates to the US. It is unsurprising that this would be the case given the alignment of our economy with the US economy (note; 2008 housing market crash and also the recent years of having Irish GDP booming above Euro area average in line with success of Big Tech and US stock market).
    how bad will the eviction scene be when the protections against eviction put into place by federal and local government expire? It is estimated that such moratoriums may wear off by January 2021, or even sooner. At that point, renters will need to pay up for the months they've missed.

    Though the $70 billion of rental arrears pales in comparison to the $1.3 trillion that set off the subprime mortgage crisis, the 12.8 million Americans affected far surpasses the 3.8 million people who were foreclosed on during the housing crisis. At the same time, housing prices are actually rising as a wave of owners move from the city to the suburbs.

    The debt could be enough to stifle a recovery coming out of the pandemic, the WSJ notes. Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, said: “These households will have to make some pretty massive financial choices and pull back on other spending to pay their rent. That’s a hit to the economy.”


  • #1963
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    Lux23 wrote: »
    I suppose the objection is that it isn't ideal to share a kitchen with lots of other people in normal times nevermind during a pandemic. I guess you don't have to worry about that, do you?

    Yeah, it's so much better to share a bedroom with a stranger. Not sure what your point is here.


  • #1964
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Report in IT today showing the impact on 1-beds since the pandemic began.
    Couples, it seems, are shunning the confines of a one-bed apartment as they struggle to both work and live in two rooms. According to the report, one beds are now proving difficult to let in the capital, with tenants looking for more space by renting a house. Even love doesn’t trump being able to shut a door on all those incessant conference calls.

    ...

    In the overheated rental market of days gone by, expressing a preference only got tenants so far; these days however, the market is turning in their favour, and a dislike for one-beds could prove problematic down the line for developers.

    With the Airbnb short-term tourism market stalled for the foreseeable future, more properties are now available. And, as noted in the report, void periods, or times when the property is empty and not generating any rent, have trebled since March.

    Unsurprisingly this lack of demand means that rents covered in the report have also slid, with those on apartments falling by about 12 per cent, according to Reilly’s figures, since the advent of the pandemic in March.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/developers-may-need-to-go-back-to-the-drawing-board-as-one-beds-fall-from-favour-1.4395657


  • #1965
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    Just saw it and was about to post.

    It actually says that one beds are proving "difficult to let". That's quite a statement as it indicates something happening now as opposed to something which may happen. I would have typically expected an IT article to talk about the potential lack of demand for one beds in the future but never to actually include a statement that they are already difficult to let - a statement from an agent as well!
    Unsurprisingly this lack of demand means that rents covered in the report have also slid, with those on apartments falling by about 12 per cent, according to Reilly’s figures, since the advent of the pandemic in March.

    This is broadly in line with that Dublin Daft rental tracker posted from time to time (specifically though it is 14-18% drops for one and two bed apartments in Dublin since 15 March). Finally, some respite for renters. Importantly, a chance for supply to get some traction while demand is frozen.


  • #1966
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    Just saw it and was about to post.

    It actually says that one beds are proving "difficult to let". That's quite a statement as it indicates something happening now as opposed to something which may happen. I would have typically expected an IT article to talk about the potential lack of demand for one beds in the future but never to actually include a statement that they are already difficult to let - a statement from an agent as well!



    This is broadly in line with that Dublin Daft rental tracker posted from time to time (specifically though it is 14-18% drops for one and two bed apartments in Dublin since 15 March). Finally, some respite for renters. Importantly, a chance for supply to get some traction while demand is frozen.

    Yes was surprising to see the IT carry this piece. Maybe the agent wants the landlords to drop their expectations as there still is lots of demand out there, just not at the ridiculous levels many places are still on at.

    Maybe they didn't want to highlight that the 2-bed apt market has also taken a massive hammering. Next stats should be out tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if the downward trend is still happening. It is looking now that 2 beds in D4 are dropping below 2k now...

    https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops


  • #1967
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    We have a fixed term lease due to run until end of February (last rent payment end of January). I really like the place, area and the landlord is lovely as well but I have started to look around and email some places. We're in a 2 bed apartment for 2000 so are looking for a 2 bed house for less than 2000. Otherwise we won't bother as we plan to buy in the next 12-15 months. In the enquiries I have made for places 2k or more, I have asked if they would consider a lower rent than what we currently pay and the responses are promising, subject to the places still being available of course.


  • #1968
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    We have a fixed term lease due to run until end of February (last rent payment end of January). I really like the place, area and the landlord is lovely as well but I have started to look around and email some places. We're in a 2 bed apartment for 2000 so are looking for a 2 bed house for less than 2000. Otherwise we won't bother as we plan to buy in the next 12-15 months. In the enquiries I have made for places 2k or more, I have asked if they would consider a lower rent than what we currently pay and the responses are promising, subject to the places still being available of course.

    Yes I would bargain hard and I am sure someone will bite. I would expect rents to be even cheaper in the new year. Are you able to indicate what % those LL's are willing to accept under the existing asking price?


  • #1969
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    Just saw it and was about to post.

    It actually says that one beds are proving "difficult to let". That's quite a statement as it indicates something happening now as opposed to something which may happen. I would have typically expected an IT article to talk about the potential lack of demand for one beds in the future but never to actually include a statement that they are already difficult to let - a statement from an agent as well!



    This is broadly in line with that Dublin Daft rental tracker posted from time to time (specifically though it is 14-18% drops for one and two bed apartments in Dublin since 15 March). Finally, some respite for renters. Importantly, a chance for supply to get some traction while demand is frozen.

    I think what is also important here is that landlords with poor quality units will need to invest / modernise to attract tenants. With more choice, some tenants may be happy to pay the same or slightly more for a higher quality apartment.
    Some of the articles in media over later couple of years about sub standard accommodation were terrible.


  • #1970
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I think what is also important here is that landlords with poor quality units will need to invest / modernise to attract tenants. With more choice, some tenants may be happy to pay the same or slightly more for a higher quality apartment.
    Some of the articles in media over later couple of years about sub standard accommodation were terrible.

    I can see tenants moving to better quality places and probably will be able to secure them at better prices than what they are currently paying. I would treat the asking prices on daft as aspirational and Kennis has indicated it seems like LL's are not accepting the new reality.


  • #1971
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I can see tenants moving to better quality places and probably will be able to secure them at better prices than what they are currently paying. I would treat the asking prices on daft as aspirational and Kennis has indicated it seems like LL's are not accepting the new reality.

    Yep. Or pay slightly more for a 2 bed instead of a 1 bed. You could be paying €1700 for a 1 bed now but could move to a 2 bed for €1900.... with more choice it makes for a functioning market which doesn’t seem to have been the case for the last few years. Colleagues in work who relocated to Ireland from elsewhere had difficulty securing good apartments. Not exactly a good introduction to Ireland. Increased availability will also benefit immigrants and returning emigrants. Visas are being processed very slowly and the likes of AWS, google, MS and other are hiring again.


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  • #1972
    Smouse156
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I can see tenants moving to better quality places and probably will be able to secure them at better prices than what they are currently paying. I would treat the asking prices on daft as aspirational and Kennis has indicated it seems like LL's are not accepting the new reality.

    Wait I thought the new reality was leave it empty till the 2019 price + 4% comes??? Sure if I drop the rent now I can’t keep increasing it at 4% annually forever??? Oh wait...


  • #1973
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Yep. Or pay slightly more for a 2 bed instead of a 1 bed. You could be paying €1700 for a 1 bed now but could move to a 2 bed for €1900.... with more choice it makes for a functioning market which doesn’t seem to have been the case for the last few years.

    Yes and should continue to be better value out there now that it looks like student places are going to be doing on the open market (with the student market being dead) this is just going to lead to lots more supply out there. If only they could tackle the empty REITs then it truly would be a functioning market.


  • #1974
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    November figures are in. Shows continued declines in asking prices.

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/


  • #1975
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,280 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    November figures are in. Shows continued declines in asking prices.

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

    the 1 bed apartment rates make a whole lot of sense, so many people renting them who only needed to be in a city 5 days a week for work who are now working entirely from home.


  • #1976
    agoodpunt
    Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭agoodpunt


    rental market demand will not return till the students and air travel is back.
    LLs with borrowings will need to continue letting, others will wait it out till demand returns then back on the market in sept 2021/22 trashing, rent arrears and stuck in below market are risks worth avoiding.
    Loss of rent cushioned with reduced tax returns on that rental income.
    Vacine needed to return to normal life


  • #1977
    brisan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    agoodpunt wrote: »
    rental market demand will not return till the students and air travel is back.
    LLs with borrowings will need to continue letting, others will wait it out till demand returns then back on the market in sept 2021/22 trashing, rent arrears and stuck in below market are risks worth avoiding.
    Loss of rent cushioned with reduced tax returns on that rental income.
    Vacine needed to return to normal life[/QUOTE]

    I would have said the same
    However with only a 50% efficacy it will be a long time to return to normal.
    If you vaccinate 100 people only 50 will be immune and you have no idea which 50,so you have to treat them all as potential covid carriers
    Not what I assumed a vaccine would be


  • #1978
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    Daft have finally published a rental report, the first one since Q1 2020 and a beastly 27 pages it is too daft. ie/report (copy the link and close the space)

    Unfortunately, the report is basically unreadable and offers no insight on the effect of Q3 on the market, in Dublin I mean. It is actually an appalling effort at giving an indication of the effect on the market of the lockdown era.

    It claims to be a Q3 rental report but;

    (1) There was no Q2 Daft rental report at all. The last one was based on Q1 2020 so they have ignored reporting for April to June. Useless.

    (2) The Q3 rental report did not provide a breakdown within the Q3 period. Instead it posts average rents broken down and then compares them to a year previously. Why not compare to Q2? Since they didn't report on Q2 then why not compare to Q1 data? The result, the drops look small in Dublin (less than 5% to slight increases when compared YoY!).

    Alternative Source

    This is the link that gets posted around here which is updated as of the 1st of each month, using the advertised rentals for Dublin (average prices, median prices and total number of listings). It provides a far more useful insight into the actual state of affairs, which are that covid and lockdowns have caused something not far short of a crash (15-20% drops in rents for 1 and 2 bed apartments in Dublin in an 8 month period).

    bl.ocks. org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/ (copy the link and close the space)

    It is just so disingenuous from Daft, bordering on underhand, to report on the rental market the way they have done (see (1) and (2) above), I'm so disappointed with them.

    Look at the IT article on the report irishtimes. com/business/economy/covid-19-crisis-keeps-rents-in-dublin-stable-1.4403762;
    Rents rose 1.2 per cent nationally in the third quarter but were stable in Dublin due to an increase in availability of properties arising from the Covid crisis

    That isn't true at all, they were stable YoY but not in Q3!


  • #1979
    Smouse156
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    Daft have finally published a rental report, the first one since Q1 2020 and a beastly 27 pages it is too daft. ie/report (copy the link and close the space)

    Unfortunately, the report is basically unreadable and offers no insight on the effect of Q3 on the market, in Dublin I mean. It is actually an appalling effort at giving an indication of the effect on the market of the lockdown era.

    It claims to be a Q3 rental report but;

    (1) There was no Q2 Daft rental report at all. The last one was based on Q1 2020 so they have ignored reporting for April to June. Useless.

    (2) The Q3 rental report did not provide a breakdown within the Q3 period. Instead it posts average rents broken down and then compares them to a year previously. Why not compare to Q2? Since they didn't report on Q2 then why not compare to Q1 data? The result, the drops look small in Dublin (less than 5% to slight increases when compared YoY!).

    Alternative Source

    This is the link that gets posted around here which is updated as of the 1st of each month, using the advertised rentals for Dublin (average prices, median prices and total number of listings). It provides a far more useful insight into the actual state of affairs, which are that covid and lockdowns have caused something not far short of a crash (15-20% drops in rents for 1 and 2 bed apartments in Dublin in an 8 month period).

    bl.ocks. org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/ (copy the link and close the space)

    It is just so disingenuous from Daft, bordering on underhand, to report on the rental market the way they have done (see (1) and (2) above), I'm so disappointed with them.

    Look at the IT article on the report irishtimes. com/business/economy/covid-19-crisis-keeps-rents-in-dublin-stable-1.4403762;



    That isn't true at all, they were stable YoY but not in Q3!

    Daft nowadays is about as useful as Pat Davitt! Complete nonsense and pumping a heavily strained market


  • #1980
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    Daft nowadays is about as useful as Pat Davitt! Complete nonsense and pumping a heavily strained market

    I'm actually shocked at the reporting. I suspected they were trying to rejig the reporting in order to portray the data the way they have but when we have the actual data separately to compare against, they have been caught with their banana hammocks around their knees while the tide has gone out. Even if they haven't tried to fudge the data, I'm disappointed they paint it as a Q3 report but actually do not offer much insight as to the quarter when compared against the previous quarter.


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  • #1981
    Smouse156
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    I'm actually shocked at the reporting. I suspected they were trying to rejig the reporting in order to portray the data the way they have but when we have the actual data separately to compare against, they have been caught with their banana hammocks around their knees while the tide has gone out. Even if they haven't tried to fudge the data, I'm disappointed they paint it as a Q3 report but actually do not offer much insight as to the quarter when compared against the previous quarter.

    All it’s doing is giving landlords false hope that the 2019 price is achievable when it clearly isn’t! Those vacant units are just going to stay vacant for month and months to come


  • #1982
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    True, it harms landlords more than tenants I'd say; and of course it is the small landlords who are the ones getting shafted as usual as they don't have access to the data the institutionals would have.


  • #1983
    Deisler
    Registered Users Posts: 401 ✭✭Deisler


    As someone looking for a one bed apartment in Dublin what is the best platform to search given that rents are reducing?


  • #1984
    brisan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Deisler wrote: »
    As someone looking for a one bed apartment in Dublin what is the best platform to search given that rents are reducing?

    Daft
    However take the advertised price as an asking price not as a definitive price
    1 bed APTS are getting harder to let out


  • #1985
    cgcsb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,755 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    Seems that the amount of places for rent in Dublin with an asking rent below €1,000 has increased significantly in the past 2 weeks. Even still in a functional rental market, even in a larger European city, creepy little bed sits with nuke proof 80s furniture cannot achieve €999 a month so there's still a way to travel before the market could be considered normal. These types of hovels shouldn't really be getting €500 pm in a functional market. For the landlords who built their business case on a one bed providing €2k a month forever with average wages what they are, well that was a dumb call in the first place even if corona never happened, some market correction would have ended that income stream sooner rather than later.

    In the buying and selling market the number of properties asking for less than €200k has ballooned, more than tripple pre covid levels I'd say. I also notice there are some properties for sale (mostly tiny crappy surburban 1 bed apts in ****ty locations) that are on for more than a year and no movement in asking price, obviously some sellers in no hurry. The number of properties for auction is also one to watch, there are now a dozen or more with a sub 200k guide price. You could pick up a few bargains at auction if you have the means and I'd expect the number of properties for auction to increase, I'm sure there's lots of amature landlords behind on payments at the moment. Come March/April, one year since first lockdown there may be an auction bonanza.

    Daft reports are disappointing, reads like they've gone out of their way to take sides (sellers and landlords) rather than just reporting honestly on the market.


  • #1986
    agoodpunt
    Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭agoodpunt


    Daft is a business at €56 for a rental add they need to encourage advertising from LL and sellers they dont get any funds from renters or buyers so data will lean in a certain direction.
    There will be a short window for bargains till vaccine rollout.


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  • #1987
    Manion
    Registered Users Posts: 1,508 ✭✭✭Manion


    I'm not sure what the issue is with the daft.ie Q3 report. Seems perfectly readable to me and understandable? Are people throwing muck or is there specific issues with what is reported in the document. Ronan Lyons is a well established and respected economist and expert in this area, I think I might take his word over new user 1234, who is definitely a real person and totally not some agenda welding reactionary.


  • #1988
    Smouse156
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Manion wrote: »
    I'm not sure what the issue is with the daft.ie Q3 report. Seems perfectly readable to me and understandable? Are people throwing muck or is there specific issues with what is reported in the document. Ronan Lyons is a well established and respected economist and expert in this area, I think I might take his word over new user 1234, who is definitely a real person and totally not some agenda welding reactionary.

    Ronan Lyons is paid to pump Daft.ie! He’s an intelligent fella but naturally heavily biased. On that basis alone you can’t take his word as gospel


  • #1989
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    Manion wrote: »
    I'm not sure what the issue is with the daft.ie Q3 report. Seems perfectly readable to me and understandable? Are people throwing muck or is there specific issues with what is reported in the document. Ronan Lyons is a well established and respected economist and expert in this area, I think I might take his word over new user 1234, who is definitely a real person and totally not some agenda welding reactionary.

    Attacking the poster, not the post. Good man, that bolsters your argument :rolleyes:


  • #1990
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    AssetBacked2, please leave the moderation to the mods.

    Do not reply to this post.


  • #1991
    cgcsb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,755 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    Manion wrote: »
    I'm not sure what the issue is with the daft.ie Q3 report. Seems perfectly readable to me and understandable? Are people throwing muck or is there specific issues with what is reported in the document. Ronan Lyons is a well established and respected economist and expert in this area, I think I might take his word over new user 1234, who is definitely a real person and totally not some agenda welding reactionary.

    His claims of rents leveling out ignore the balooning availability on the daft website. As other posters point out everyone in the world has inherent biases. Bill Gates will probably tell you that bing maps are better than google, but as an intelligent human you have the ability to take that view into account and form your own view rather than blindly regurgitate what someone, who undoubtedly knows their business, tells you.


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  • #1992
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    I posted before about my own Daft search (2 beds minimum, max price 2300 and houses), I am now seeing a lot of decent places in good areas within that price range in Dublin. Here is a collection on Daft right now;

    3 bed, Terenure 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/terenure/the-cloisters-terenure-terenure-dublin-2094014/

    3 bed, Dalkey 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dalkey/saint-patricks-road-dalkey-dublin-3114715/

    3 bed, Portobello 2300 (a bit hipstery but kind of cool) https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/portobello/4-alexandra-terrace-portobello-dublin-3114968/

    3 bed, Stillorgan 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/stillorgan/51-stillorgan-heath-stillorgan-dublin-2082792/

    3 bed, Donnybrook 2275 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/donnybrook/donnybrook-manor-dublin-donnybrook-dublin-3111554/

    2 bed, Windy Arbour 2200 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/windy-arbour/7-millmount-terrace-windy-arbour-dublin-2085859/

    3 bed, Ranelagh 2200 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/ranelagh/4-mountpleasant-terrace-upper-ranelagh-dublin-3126598/

    2 bed, Ringsend 1900 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-4/south-dock-street-ringsend-dublin-4-dublin-2064011/

    2 bed, Donnybrook 1850 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/donnybrook/52-donnybrook-manor-donnybrook-dublin-3113682/

    There is significant pressure coming down on apartments at this point, particularly those with 1/2 beds prices at or close to 2000 (with the exception of new builds/GCD places). We are looking at prices achieved back in 2016 at this point, which are continuing to fall. It took 3 years to get to 2019 levels and I do not see how it will take under a year to get even close to those levels from what we currently see. A key factor in inflating rental prices is immigration and continued job growth; both of which are muted for another 6 months at least, after which, who knows what will happen.


  • #1993
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,295 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    I

    A key factor in inflating rental prices is immigration and continued job growth; both of which are muted for another 6 months at least, after which, who knows what will happen.

    The Celtic Tiger baby boom is now giving rise to increasing household formation. Co-incident with this is increased life expectancy leading to a lot of pensioner households is also an operative factor.


  • #1994
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    I posted before about my own Daft search (2 beds minimum, max price 2300 and houses), I am now seeing a lot of decent places in good areas within that price range in Dublin. Here is a collection on Daft right now;

    3 bed, Terenure 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/terenure/the-cloisters-terenure-terenure-dublin-2094014/

    3 bed, Dalkey 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dalkey/saint-patricks-road-dalkey-dublin-3114715/

    3 bed, Portobello 2300 (a bit hipstery but kind of cool) https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/portobello/4-alexandra-terrace-portobello-dublin-3114968/

    3 bed, Stillorgan 2300 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/stillorgan/51-stillorgan-heath-stillorgan-dublin-2082792/

    3 bed, Donnybrook 2275 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/donnybrook/donnybrook-manor-dublin-donnybrook-dublin-3111554/

    2 bed, Windy Arbour 2200 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/windy-arbour/7-millmount-terrace-windy-arbour-dublin-2085859/

    3 bed, Ranelagh 2200 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/ranelagh/4-mountpleasant-terrace-upper-ranelagh-dublin-3126598/

    2 bed, Ringsend 1900 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-4/south-dock-street-ringsend-dublin-4-dublin-2064011/

    2 bed, Donnybrook 1850 https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/donnybrook/52-donnybrook-manor-donnybrook-dublin-3113682/

    There is significant pressure coming down on apartments at this point, particularly those with 1/2 beds prices at or close to 2000 (with the exception of new builds/GCD places). We are looking at prices achieved back in 2016 at this point, which are continuing to fall. It took 3 years to get to 2019 levels and I do not see how it will take under a year to get even close to those levels from what we currently see. A key factor in inflating rental prices is immigration and continued job growth; both of which are muted for another 6 months at least, after which, who knows what will happen.

    The 3 beds there should be attractive to many in that price range. I agree with you re 1/2 bed apts but I would say that even in GCD serious downward pressure is coming. I am noticing nice places now crop up in Ballsbridge for less than 2k (for a 2 bed) and are sticking around. Re new builds I think these are still looking for prices that are almost pre-Covid and if they don't adjust they will spend another 6-8 months lying vacant.

    Interesting that you think it is back at 2016 prices. I would have thought it was still higher but I don't have anything to compare it with.


  • #1995
    Manion
    Registered Users Posts: 1,508 ✭✭✭Manion


    cgcsb wrote: »
    His claims of rents leveling out ignore the balooning availability on the daft website. As other posters point out everyone in the world has inherent biases. Bill Gates will probably tell you that bing maps are better than google, but as an intelligent human you have the ability to take that view into account and form your own view rather than blindly regurgitate what someone, who undoubtedly knows their business, tells you.

    A lot of threads on this forum go down the road of my side, your side "I recon'ing". You'll note I haven't regurgitated anything, blind or otherwise. However some of the posts here seemed to default to assuming more than a bias. To dismiss the daft reports from Ronan Lyons out of hand simply because they come from a daft employee is I think very disingenuous and just as flawed as blindly accepting it. The over the top criticism of the report as unreadable and nonsense smacks of the same mentality we currently see with the US elections. Crying fraud, corruption not based on facts but rather because the narrative being support is one they disagree with. The analyst provided 27 pages to support his conclusions. Obviously there is bias in there both in terms of a limited dataset (daft.ie) and also what he chooses to emphasis versus what he doesn't, it doesn't mean the guy is a bought and sold mouth piece.

    Anyway, you assert he hasn't given proper consideration to the supply side and how it impacts rental prices but page 4 makes it extremely clear there is a negative correlation between supply and rent change. It really couldn't be stated any more clearly.


    eX39qlSl.png
    pg 4 of the report
    The respite in Dublin’s rental sector is down to
    Covid-19, which has brought about a once-off
    redistribution of a couple of thousand properties from
    the short-term lettings segment to the long-term rental
    segment. As welcome as these are for those now living
    in them, they are a finite resource and that, combined
    with depressed migration into the city, has meant that
    rents in the third quarter of 2020 were 0.8% lower than
    a year previously, the first time in almost a decade that
    rents fell in the capital


    It's fine and necessary to critique the analysis on it's merits but where is what he is saying flawed? I need to make some decisions shortly and I'm genuinely interested in understanding the real current state of play of the housing market. I've looked a numerous sources including the excellent web scraping dataset provided earlier and official sources, them all paint similar narratives to varying degrees of emphasis.


  • #1996
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Manion wrote: »
    I need to make some decisions shortly and I'm genuinely interested in understanding the real current state of play of the housing market. I've looked a numerous sources including the excellent web scraping dataset provided earlier and official sources, them all paint similar narratives to varying degrees of emphasis.

    One thing I would take issue with that chart he produced is that it infers that we need to see supply hit 4k levels before rents decrease. We are now at approx 3k and have seen huge decreases since Covid struck in 1/2 bed apts at least. I am not as well versed on other categories but I would have thought they might have also come down. I have not seen such value in the rental market in a long long time.


  • #1997
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,295 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    It was clear when rents were rising in the early stages that rises began in one segment of the market there followed a ripple effect through all other sectors. As people find themselves priced out of one segment they move to another so an individual who finds that one beds are too expensive may opt to share a two bed thus putting upward pressure on 2 beds.
    The market is now unwinding from a high. The reverse will now happen. People who previously compromised will now move to something which more closely matches their requirements.
    There is thus a game of musical chairs going on. Until the new supply is absorbed there will be a continual churn with prices dropping ever downwards.


  • #1998
    Manion
    Registered Users Posts: 1,508 ✭✭✭Manion


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    One thing I would take issue with that chart he produced is that it infers that we need to see supply hit 4k levels before rents decrease. We are now at approx 3k and have seen huge decreases since Covid struck in 1/2 bed apts at least. I am not as well versed on other categories but I would have thought they might have also come down. I have not seen such value in the rental market in a long long time.

    I think that is fair and unfair.

    It's a fair critique because but failing to separate the plot into different categories of property times a behaviour is hidden or masks for one specific category. It could be argued that's an editorial decisions and getting a macro view of the entire market is valuable.

    Its also unfair because it's literally the historic data and plotted as a scatter plot to illustrate range. He doesn't have and regression analysis in the document that I saw, it's all literally descriptive.


  • #1999
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    Manion wrote: »
    A lot of threads on this forum go down the road of my side, your side "I recon'ing". You'll note I haven't regurgitated anything, blind or otherwise. However some of the posts here seemed to default to assuming more than a bias. To dismiss the daft reports from Ronan Lyons out of hand simply because they come from a daft employee is I think very disingenuous and just as flawed as blindly accepting it. The over the top criticism of the report as unreadable and nonsense smacks of the same mentality we currently see with the US elections. Crying fraud, corruption not based on facts but rather because the narrative being support is one they disagree with. The analyst provided 27 pages to support his conclusions. Obviously there is bias in there both in terms of a limited dataset (daft.ie) and also what he chooses to emphasis versus what he doesn't, it doesn't mean the guy is a bought and sold mouth piece.

    Anyway, you assert he hasn't given proper consideration to the supply side and how it impacts rental prices but page 4 makes it extremely clear there is a negative correlation between supply and rent change. It really couldn't be stated any more clearly.


    eX39qlSl.png
    pg 4 of the report




    It's fine and necessary to critique the analysis on it's merits but where is what he is saying flawed? I need to make some decisions shortly and I'm genuinely interested in understanding the real current state of play of the housing market. I've looked a numerous sources including the excellent web scraping dataset provided earlier and official sources, them all paint similar narratives to varying degrees of emphasis.

    On the bit in bold, you need to remember that this is Boards.ie, not a property experts forum so of course there is going to be a bias. You need to accept that when posting and engaging with posts.

    My issue with the Q3 rental report is set out above; that it does not compare to the previous quarter or even Q1 (since they did not report on the previous quarter). In addition, why do a quarterly report and compare to the previous year? That should be what the annual reporting is for. At the very least, compare to the previous year as well as the previous quarter.

    As you have noted, the data set collated and posted up every so often is just the data with no comparisons. It is clear that rental prices in the 8 months of lockdowns are down 15-20% in Dublin; from Q1 to Q3 2020 comparisons this is demonstrated in the data on that link. However, due to the way Daft.ie report on the data, you would be forgiven for thinking not a lot has changed in the rental market this year when compared to last year. The thing is, portraying an image that things are relatively unaffected by covid is of benefit to landlords as opposed to tenants. However, by mis-conveying the data, this is harmful to landlords as opposed to tenants.


  • #2000
    Manion
    Registered Users Posts: 1,508 ✭✭✭Manion


    Looks at relative registration dates. Yes, please do tell me how this site works. There is a current affairs forum for reconing.


    To address your issues: Lack of comparison to Q2 doesn't mean the report is untrustworthy, or the data for Q3 is wrong. There could be a lot of reasons for the lack of Q2 report, including that there was may, June and July reports which effectively covered that period. Properties tend to be let on a yearly basis so a YoY comparison is valuable. If you wish to do a comparision to Q1 2020 the report is here, they make it easy to do the comparison yourself.

    https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-Q1-rental-daftreport.pdf

    Average rental cost at the end of Q1 2020 for north dublin city was 1,974.

    Average rental cost at the end of Q3 2020 for north dublin city was 1,943

    This corresponds to a 1.57% drop

    https://www.daft.ie/report/2019-Q4-rental-daftreport.pdf

    Average rental cost at the end of Q4 2019 for north dublin city was 1,950.

    Average rental cost at the end of Q3 2020 for north dublin city was 1,943.

    This corresponds to a 0.3% drop.

    These are the facts, and boards.ie being a discussion forum where people who are both experts and non experts share opinions about topics try to predict what happens next is fine but you don't get to just make up that rental prices have fallen 20% and the failure of main stream media economist to report on this is corruption and bias.


  • #2001
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Manion wrote: »
    Looks at relative registration dates. Yes, please do tell me how this site works. There is a current affairs forum for reconing.


    To address your issues: Lack of comparison to Q2 doesn't mean the report is untrustworthy, or the data for Q3 is wrong. There could be a lot of reasons for the lack of Q2 report, including that there was may, June and July reports which effectively covered that period. Properties tend to be let on a yearly basis so a YoY comparison is valuable. If you wish to do a comparision to Q1 2020 the report is here, they make it easy to do the comparison yourself.

    https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-Q1-rental-daftreport.pdf

    Average rental cost at the end of Q1 2020 for north dublin city was 1,974. Average rental cost at the end of Q3 2020 for north dublin city with 1,943

    This corresponds to a 1.57% drop

    https://www.daft.ie/report/2019-Q4-rental-daftreport.pdf

    Average rental cost at the end of Q4 2019 for north dublin city was 1,950. Average rental cost at the end of Q3 2020 for north dublin city with 1,943.

    This corresponds to a 0.3% drop.

    These are the facts, and boards.ie being a discussion forum where people who are both experts and non experts share opinions about try to predict what happens next is fine but you don't get to just make up that rental prices have fallen 20% and the failure of main stream media economist to report on this is corruption and bias.

    For some, It's not about who and how the reports are created, but it's about what results they want to see. You would have a hard time for reasonable fact based discussion.
    Example which had a big support on Daft report, due to favorable numbers:
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113052417&postcount=3529


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