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17-12-2019, 19:22   #1
Meteorite58
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Wind / Rainfall warnings :Potentially very windy Weds 18th Dec 2019

Think it is worth putting up a thread for this event on Weds as there is potential for the warnings to increase from the present Yellow. Models have been grappling with this set up for a few days and have all upgraded wind speeds in the last run.

Since the Met Eireann warning has come out some models suggesting that some areas could be potentially very windy as in the Orange warning level, a few coastal areas are showing up by some models with even higher gusts. Couple this with the heavy rain forecast and it makes for difficult weather conditions.

The strongest winds tomorrow evening are fast moving, gone through in a few hours up along the Atlantic Seaboard.
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17-12-2019, 19:40   #2
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ECM 12Z

Very fast moving deepening system on it's approach towards the SW hitching a ride from the Jet. From what I can make out the disturbance is 984 hPa at 03.00 and 968 hPa at 21.00, drop of 16 hPa in 18hrs, not quite a bomb but a decent fast drop. Unpredictable , the fact that the stronger winds are predicted later in the day gives forecasters a bit of time to see which way this goes.









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17-12-2019, 19:42   #3
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ECM 12Z

This last run sees the strongest winds graze the SW and showing some very strong winds in the W later that evening. ECM has upgraded the winds a lot in the last run bringing the system much closer to the coast.





















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17-12-2019, 19:48   #4
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As typhoony pointed out , big upgrade from the GFS 12Z


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17-12-2019, 19:51   #5
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ICON in between runs but they look similar , earlier had shown very strong winds (in the Red level ) over Atlantic coastal counties but has pulled this back now to more over the sea and up along the coasts so this now more in line with the ECM.

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17-12-2019, 19:57   #6
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ARPEGE might be a good average atm.

EURO 4 looks a bit over done. What ye reckon ?





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17-12-2019, 20:07   #7
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Rainfall predictions














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17-12-2019, 20:12   #8
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Good work Meteorite.

Looks a real tricky one. Could be a nasty surprise as media very quiet. System has potential to bring stronger wind gusts than during Atiyah.
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17-12-2019, 20:14   #9
igCorcaigh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sleety_Rain View Post
Good work Meteorite.

Looks a real tricky one. Could be a nasty surprise as media very quiet. System has potential to bring stronger wind gusts than during Atiyah.
Seconded.
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17-12-2019, 20:40   #10
pauldry
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Id say these types of gusts

Mace Hd 130kph
Sherkin 125kph
Valentia 122kph
Roches Pt 110kph
Belmullet 120kph
Sligo 112kph
Shannon 115kph
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17-12-2019, 21:35   #11
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!CON 18Z looking extremly windy, has brought the strongest winds in overland again on this run.

Orange warning levels at least from Kerry to Donegal if this verifies. Showing very high gusts inland as well.

Will the other models follow suit.



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17-12-2019, 22:03   #12
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A very tricky setup but most models developing that second wave of strong gusts in the West tomorrow night, including HARMONIE on DMI site now.

The Met Éireann forecast after nine news made very little of it and their current text forecast seems a little bizarre, perhaps they are waiting to see what overnight runs bring.

Current forecast for tomorrow night:

Quote:
Wednesday night will start wet in most places but the rain will quickly clear northwards, with just the odd coastal shower overnight. Southerly winds will drop off light to moderate with a few patches of mist and fog forming. Overnight lows of 5 to 7 degrees.
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17-12-2019, 22:48   #13
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Latest GFS calmer than previous run by about 20kph so 110 or 120 on West coast tops in that setup
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17-12-2019, 22:51   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
Latest GFS calmer than previous run by about 20kph so 110 or 120 on West coast tops in that setup
Just going to post the same, looks strong though onto the S coasts on this run .

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17-12-2019, 23:11   #15
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ARPEGE 12Z just rolling out, bringing stronger winds in over Atlantic counties on this run, still not as strong as the ECM or ICON but stronger than the last run and stronger across the country gusting widespread up to 90 km/h

Currently up to 110km/h in coastal counties from Kerry up to W Donegal and possibly up to 120km/h on some coastal fringes.

Still not certain but I personally would be leaning between ECM and ARPEGE. In saying that I thought in the last couple of wind events, or near non events for many, ICON did very well especially in the last couple of runs.



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