Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 25/11/2010 onwards

Redsunset · 25-11-2010 12:40pm

nacho libre wrote: »

it's still better than prevailling south westerlies with temperatures in the low- to mid-teens. anyway if the cold is sustained, which present indications suggest it will be, a decent fall of snow will happen at some stage- whether it's due to a trough, polar low or a frontal system.

ah i know i just don't want this great block to end with feck all to show for it.

WolfeIRE · 25-11-2010 12:40pm

precip now showing north of donegal on 3hr chart

TheMilkyPirate · 25-11-2010 12:41pm

alfa beta wrote: »

post removed guys - didn't know the reason - and weathercheck is right - not jokey subject mattter

:rolleyes:

nacho libre · 25-11-2010 12:47pm

redsunset wrote: »

ah i know i just don't want this great block to end with feck all to show for it.

i know what you mean. according to gp, over on netweather, it won't end anytime soon, so hopefully we'll have something noteworthy to talk about before it ends.
also, as munsterlegends says, it's usually the unexpected snowfalls that are the best. that was definitely the case at times last winter.

Rebelbrowser · 25-11-2010 12:49pm

I'm still holding to my month long prediction. This is what I said in the November prediction thread on 26 October.......

"I'll start the ball rolling so:-

( 7.7 ..... 17.6 ..... -4.3..... 103 ..... 93 ..... 65)

As for snow, I'll say the first snow at one of the met.ie stations will be on 26 November. "

So snow tomorrow folks!

irish1967 · 25-11-2010 12:57pm

I see Sky News Online has a rather strange forecast

lol

Sky News weather forecaster Nazaneen Ghaffar says more snow is predicted in the North East while "rain, sleep and hill snow will push in from the West - most of it settling in the South West in the Cornwall area and west of Wales".

arctictree · 25-11-2010 1:02pm

Any comments on the 06z? Looks epic to me.

My personal favourite:

Cantona's Collars · 25-11-2010 1:05pm

The wind is starting to pick up here in Wexford,not looking forward to the wind-chill when I'm out and about later.

Deep Easterly · 25-11-2010 1:17pm

nacho libre wrote: »

it's still better than prevailling south westerlies with temperatures in the low- to mid-teens. anyway if the cold is sustained, which present indications suggest it will be, a decent fall of snow will happen at some stage- whether it's due to a trough, polar low or a frontal system.

I admire your optimism Nacho but cannot share it, at least for the moment. Looking at the latest charts I just get that dreaded 2009/2010 winter buzz where it remains cold but that is about it. Today is a perfect example of what I detest in a weather day. Bright, watery, maritime and unspeakably vapid. It is just like any day we had last winter, and indeed last summer for that matter.

I would rather raging south-westerlies than this to be honest, at least you'd be in with a chance of being hit by some proper active weather; or even some proper brisk drying cold easterlies in from the continent which would add colour to the sky.

Anyway, plenty of the forthcoming winter left so maybe winter 2010/2011 will avenge the crap dished out by last winter in these here parts.

Min · 25-11-2010 1:18pm

arctictree wrote: »

Any comments on the 06z? Looks epic to me.

My personal favourite:

Plenty of wind chill, snow showers for Leinster, east Munster and Ulster and north Connaught.
Just very cold, hands that feel like their fingers are icicles and feet that feel like blocks of ice...

ninebeanrows · 25-11-2010 1:30pm

arctictree wrote: »

Any comments on the 06z? Looks epic to me.

My personal favourite:

I personally preferred the UKM this morning! Showed perfect synoptics for Lake Effect for the east!

maquiladora · 25-11-2010 1:30pm

UK Outlook for Friday 10 Dec 2010 to Friday 24 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue well below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. There is some chance of it turning less cold, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

No change from the UKMO today. Going for likely cold right up to Christmas Eve now with only some chance of a breakdown.

nacho libre · 25-11-2010 1:40pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I admire your optimism Nacho but cannot share it, at least for the moment. Looking at the latest charts I just get that dreaded 2009/2010 winter buzz where it remains cold but that is about it. Today is a perfect example of what I detest in a weather day. Bright, watery, maritime and unspeakably vapid. It is just like any day we had last winter, and indeed last summer for that matter.

I would rather raging south-westerlies than this to be honest, at least you'd be in with a chance of being hit by some proper active weather; or even some proper brisk drying cold easterlies in from the continent which would add colour to the sky.

Anyway, plenty of the forthcoming winter left so maybe winter 2010/2011 will avenge the crap dished out by last winter in these here parts.

how dare you not share my optimism mr tumulus. who the hell do you think you are:mad:

i would not be averse to the setup you desire if it brought a storm, but otherwise, to be quiet honest, i can't abide south westerlies in Winter.
i'll take cold, crisp days and frosty nights over it anytime. i'm not expecting the blizzard of 1880 here - something even a quarter of that scale will only happen when it's not expected, however i remain optimistic if we do stay in the freezer, with it being slightly less cold at times, right up until the ukmo suggests, then we will will have to get at least one decent snowfall- a decent snow fall from my perspective is 6-8cm. Anything else is just a bonus. I'm in an optimistic mood right now. it won't last long:pac:

Deep Easterly · 25-11-2010 1:52pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I'm in an optimistic mood right now. it won't last long:pac:

Good!!

by the way, how dare you tell me how dare I! Steam. Yes, you have a point Nacho regarding samey type weather in winter, I am just hoping the winter does not stay the same as what it is offering today.

Speak Now · 25-11-2010 1:57pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I admire your optimism Nacho but cannot share it, at least for the moment. Looking at the latest charts I just get that dreaded 2009/2010 winter buzz where it remains cold but that is about it. Today is a perfect example of what I detest in a weather day. Bright, watery, maritime and unspeakably vapid. It is just like any day we had last winter, and indeed last summer for that matter.

I would rather raging south-westerlies than this to be honest, at least you'd be in with a chance of being hit by some proper active weather; or even some proper brisk drying cold easterlies in from the continent which would add colour to the sky.

Anyway, plenty of the forthcoming winter left so maybe winter 2010/2011 will avenge the crap dished out by last winter in these here parts.

Ah come on DE you've already had 3 storms this month, dont be greedy :P Let's enjoy some nice bright weather to see out the month

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 25-11-2010 2:17pm

Hi Guys

Are the winds expected to shift more to the east later today / tonight ?

WolfeIRE · 25-11-2010 2:20pm

front about 75 miles northwest of donegal at present
UK%20HRV.jpg

ninebeanrows · 25-11-2010 2:20pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

Hi Guys

Are the winds expected to shift more to the east later today / tonight ?

No, don't expect any snow till Saturday/Sunday.

Weak front to push south tonight with scattered showers of rain and sleet. ( unless the system is intensified in future runs)

The winds slowly veer east by Friday night, Saturday and that's when the fun starts.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 25-11-2010 2:21pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

No, don't expect any snow till Saturday/Sunday.

Weak front to push south tonight with scattered showers of rain and sleet. ( unless the system is intensified in future runs)

The winds slowly veer east by Friday night, Saturday and that's when the fun starts.

Cheers

oterra · 25-11-2010 2:28pm

Just looking at met eireann there and it certainly looks for just cold and quite dry over the next few days with the increased risk of showers from Monday in the North and East as wind veers from a North Easterly direction.
Anyone any opinions on this?

roryc1 · 25-11-2010 2:33pm

From an east coast Dublin point of view it all comes down to wind direction, snow is falling easy enough at low levels in England, I don’t really see a reason why it wont do the same here by the weekend.

jambofc · 25-11-2010 2:36pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

front about 75 miles northwest of donegal at present

temps rising up north and along the west coast as it approaches,also still only sleet at low levels in most of Scotland,not boding well for snow at low level from this front :mad:

i dont think we will see snow in meath until at least sunday and even then i cant see any significant amounts.

howlinwolf · 25-11-2010 2:36pm

met eireanns forcast for the weekend is interesting, a slight improvment for snow but some seriously cold temps both day and night.:)

Headline: Very cold weather for the rest of this week and into next week. A cold night on Friday with temperatures falling to between zero and -3 degrees. There will be widespread frost setting in and some icy patches on the roads. It will remain dry overnight in many parts with the exception of coastal counties, where some wintry showers will develop and there is the risk of some sleet and snow falling inland and over high ground. Saturday and Sunday will have a lot of dry and bright weather inland but there will be further showers of rain, hail and sleet along coastal areas especially along eastern and northern coasts. Further inland in Leinster there is the risk of snow showers. Highest temperatures over the weekend will range from 1 to 4 on Saturday to only 0 to 2 on Sunday. The nights will be bitterly cold with lowest temperatures falling to between -3 and -5 and even lower, with widespread severe frosts.

Su Campu · 25-11-2010 3:12pm

roryc1 wrote: »

From an east coast Dublin point of view it all comes down to wind direction, snow is falling easy enough at low levels in England, I dont really see a reason why it wont do the same here by the weekend.

Three words for ya: Sea Surface Temperatures!

Where it's snowing in Scotland and NE England (but also raining too, don't forget) the ssts are around 2-3 degrees colder, plus the reduced sea track is limiting modification. We've got extra track over warmer seas to contend with, so while in January this setup would be a no brainer, late November's a different story. As I said last night, what's going to happen in the lowest 1000ft of the atmosphere?

Right now I see snow showers above 100m, with possibly down to sea level inland IF the showers make it far enough inland.

Graces7 · 25-11-2010 3:14pm

Min wrote: »

Plenty of wind chill, snow showers for Leinster, east Munster and Ulster and north Connaught.
Just very cold, hands that feel like their fingers are icicles and feet that feel like blocks of ice...

Even here in West Cork that applies too; re hands and feet... But in the sun warm now.. Hoping no snow as we have craft fairs the next two weekends and need the earnings desperately for our work overseas. We lost so much last winter. Heartbreaking.

Planning to take January off so all snow etc must wait now;)

munsterlegend · 25-11-2010 3:19pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Three words for ya: Sea Surface Temperatures!

Where it's snowing in Scotland and NE England (but also raining too, don't forget) the ssts are around 2-3 degrees colder, plus the reduced sea track is limiting modification. We've got extra track over warmer seas to contend with, so while in January this setup would be a no brainer, late November's a different story. As I said last night, what's going to happen in the lowest 1000ft of the atmosphere?

Right now I see snow showers above 100m, with possibly down to sea level inland IF the showers make it far enough inland.

when do you expect these showers to be of snow? over the weekend? or early next week?

Min · 25-11-2010 3:20pm

The frost has lasted all day here so far, in the shade the grass is still white and I had to defrost the car there now, the ice was thick on the glass.

WolfeIRE · 25-11-2010 3:23pm

Weather Warning

Issued at 25 November 2010 - 14:15

Very cold, wintry conditions this weekend.

From late Friday (26th November) through the weekend, snow showers affecting north Connacht, Donegal and eastern counties of Leinster will give accumulations of 3 to 5 centimetres at times below 250 metres. These accumulations will occur mainly during night time, with occasional thawing likely by day. Generally throughout the country, there will be sharp or severe ground frosts at night, leading to ice formation on damp and untreated surfaces.

Regular updates will follow as events unfold.

roryc1 · 25-11-2010 3:25pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Three words for ya: Sea Surface Temperatures!

Where it's snowing in Scotland and NE England (but also raining too, don't forget) the ssts are around 2-3 degrees colder, plus the reduced sea track is limiting modification. We've got extra track over warmer seas to contend with, so while in January this setup would be a no brainer, late November's a different story. As I said last night, what's going to happen in the lowest 1000ft of the atmosphere?

Right now I see snow showers above 100m, with possibly down to sea level inland IF the showers make it far enough inland.

Will the warmer seas not help create stronger showers that might make it more in land and then hopefully fall as snow?

Rougies · 25-11-2010 3:30pm

roryc1 wrote: »

Will the warmer seas not help create stronger showers that might make it more in land and then hopefully fall as snow?

That's what I was thinking too. Plus the fact that the heavier the showers, the more downdraft will occur bringing down the temps near the ground, helping them to stay as snow. Maybe the pros of higher SSTs will outweigh the cons!?

WolfeIRE · 25-11-2010 3:31pm

Snow showers across East Leinster will really get going from early Sat morn onwards

snowstreams · 25-11-2010 3:32pm

You can see in that map that the sea around louth, meath is quite cool. But the Irish sea itself seems as warm as the Celtic sea down by waterford.
I remember in October 2003?, I was living in Dublin and there was 3-4 days of continuous thunder/hail showers coming in off the Irish sea to the north east. The wicklow mountains got a fair bit of snow (1foot) that time. but lower down it was all hail/rain.

Su Campu · 25-11-2010 3:37pm

roryc1 wrote: »

Will the warmer seas not help create stronger showers that might make it more in land and then hopefully fall as snow?

With a strong enough flow yes, so Saturday and Sunday would look like our best chance.

25-11-2010 3:52pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Three words for ya: Sea Surface Temperatures!

Where it's snowing in Scotland and NE England (but also raining too, don't forget) the ssts are around 2-3 degrees colder, plus the reduced sea track is limiting modification. We've got extra track over warmer seas to contend with, so while in January this setup would be a no brainer, late November's a different story. As I said last night, what's going to happen in the lowest 1000ft of the atmosphere?

Right now I see snow showers above 100m, with possibly down to sea level inland IF the showers make it far enough inland.

Could you explain why it snowed in Ashford[mothmans location] by the sea,wicklow town and Arklow this morning at sea level? The breeze at the time was no more than 10 to 15mph

patneve2 · 25-11-2010 3:57pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Could you explain why it snowed in Ashford[mothmans location] by the sea,wicklow town and Arklow this morning at sea level? The breeze at the time was no more than 10 to 15mph

Sorry to butt in to your conversation but it snowed in those locations because the wind wasn't blowing in off the sea. For the last 24hrs wind on the E coast has been between NW, NNW and occasionally N. I presume they clipped the coast because out at sea (for example M2 buoy) winds were slightly NEasterly, making the showers veer near enough to Wicklow coasts.

carlmwan · 25-11-2010 4:00pm

dbyrne wrote: »

no snow this morning just a very frozen car..... just had a look at the beeb and they are not showing any snow at all for the weekend for dublin, I hope they are wrong

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

yet the other site I started to look at www.yr.no has upgraded us from rain and sleet to snow for the weekend.

thats odd it show snow for london on bbc site but no snow for london on yr hope yr site is right

25-11-2010 4:03pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Sorry to butt in to your conversation but it snowed in those locations because the wind wasn't blowing in off the sea. For the last 24hrs wind on the E coast has been between NW, NNW and occasionally N. I presume they clipped the coast because out at sea (for example M2 buoy) winds were slightly NEasterly, making the showers veer near enough to Wicklow coasts.

I know why the precipitation was there...the question I was asking was why it was snow if,the sst's being so warm are supposed to turn the precip on the coast to rain.
Clearly that didn't happen this morning.
Also at the time the wind here was NNE near the showers so it was at that time blowing in off the sea.

irish1967 · 25-11-2010 4:04pm

The band of showers should be hitting here within minutes. Still dry here and totally calm.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Rougies · 25-11-2010 4:06pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I know why the precipitation was there...the question I was asking was why it was snow if,the sst's being so warm are supposed to turn the precip on the coast to rain.
Clearly that didn't happen this morning.
Also at the time the wind here was NNE near the showers so it was at that time blowing in off the sea.

If you look at the chart snowstreams posted above you can see the wind would've been blowing over the cooler SSTs nearer the coast. That would've helped.

Pangea · 25-11-2010 4:07pm

irish1967 wrote: »

The band of showers should be hitting here within minutes. Still dry here and totally calm.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Is there any possability that is snow by any chance?

I see on that sst chart Donegal bay is quite cool, boads well for us Irish.

Wolfe thanks for the weather warning link

rilz · 25-11-2010 4:08pm

I am as low at sea level as you can get here on east coast so will let u know when the precip starts fallin wether it be rain-sleet or snow:o

nacho libre · 25-11-2010 4:15pm

Pangea wrote: »

Is there any possability that is snow by any chance?

don't think so. you'll have to wait till the showers move in after this front clears southwards.
yr.no has me down for rain this evening and snow tomorrow evening

25-11-2010 4:16pm

Rougies wrote: »

If you look at the chart snowstreams posted above you can see the wind would've been blowing over the cooler SSTs nearer the coast. That would've helped.

Thats a very tiny area though.
I'm positing that those showers driving down the irish sea this morning and now were entirely snow out at sea and if driven onto the coast if we were in an east flow would be snow too regardless of height or coastal location.

I was of Su campu's opinion and posted as such on the older thread that the sst's should be melting the snow to sleety rain on the coast but this morning cast doubt over that concern to me.

Dp seems to be over ruling sst

carlmwan · 25-11-2010 4:16pm

This is what my ipod is telling me it was reliable last year so lets see about this year

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

WolfeIRE · 25-11-2010 4:18pm

Looking ahead to next week if I may, conscious that there are other people on here who may not see any snow at the weekend.

There is potential for a countrywide significant snow event on late Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system will form in the mid Atlantic and track along the Portuguese coast before deepening over the Bay of Biscay. It will track northwards over western France before veering NE towards southern England and Ireland. Models show the system retreating eastwards as a blocking high over Iceland tracks south-eastwards somewhat and another low pressure system in the Atlantic deepens and moves eastwards.

Some very small alterations to the above set-up could bring some significant snowfall to Ireland. At present, much of southern England and the East and south East of Ireland will see some snow from this system. The following would result in the system tracking closer to or over Ireland: the blocking high over Iceland holding or retreating NE somewhat towards Greenland OR the blocking high over Scandinavia shifting eastwards.

TheMilkyPirate · 25-11-2010 4:23pm

At what times does the GFS roll out everyday i know its four times a day but what are times?

thanks.

WolfeIRE · 25-11-2010 4:24pm

baraca wrote: »

At what times does the GFS roll out everyday i know its four times a day but what are times?

thanks.

3.30pm, 9.30pm, 3.30am and 9.30am baraca

here
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

delw · 25-11-2010 4:25pm

carlmwan wrote: »

This is what my ipod is telling me it was reliable last year so lets see about this year

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

its also telling you to charge it

Rougies · 25-11-2010 4:26pm

baraca wrote: »

At what times does the GFS roll out everyday i know its four times a day but what are times?

thanks.

3hr 30mins after each run starts.

eg. 12z will start rolling out at 15:30

pistolpetes11 · 25-11-2010 4:26pm

I now these are useless but :

Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 25/11/2010 onwards

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