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04-09-2020, 14:30   #46
SeaBreezes
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My Hopes are definately up after HatrickPatrick and Syran updates!!

(Assuming i understood it correctly)

Thank you both.
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04-09-2020, 20:59   #47
pauldry
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When you give up on the weather the weather gives.

I've given up on ever seeing a cold snowy Winter like 2010 ever again but who knows. Maybe this year.

One thing that's almost a given now is that we will get lots of rain.
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04-09-2020, 22:49   #48
Graces7
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About 2010?

"Age and forgetfulness sweeten memory" applies. OK? OK!
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04-09-2020, 23:33   #49
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I hope we get a bitterly cold winter with loads of snow.
I am not sure exactly how I managed it but I have packed my shed with about 3 years of turf and logs. Stockpiling I guess.
My stove will be hopping and I also plan to do a lot of winter hiking.
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05-09-2020, 14:25   #50
hatrickpatrick
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So, just to recap here:

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Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick View Post
Not saying this to get anyone's hopes up, just an observation!
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My Hopes are definately up after HatrickPatrick and Syran updates!!
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05-09-2020, 14:29   #51
NickNickleby
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick View Post
So, just to recap here:





heheheh

Too late. You've created a monster:

Now, where are those snow-shoes I bought in 2011??
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11-09-2020, 11:54   #52
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10 year anniversary this year.....could it happen again??! Hey, it's 2020!

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20-09-2020, 12:35   #53
sryanbruen
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This likely won't be much an issue here as compared to Netweather but I thought I should mention it anyway.

A weak stratospheric polar vortex in late autumn is a good starting point but rarely does it coincide with a season of consistently weak SPV, 2009-10 being such a year. Recent years have had the tendency to feature a weak SPV through the autumn period or a disconnection between the trop and strat before a big ramp up or reconnection by December or January. This was especially the case in 2016-17. The life span of the SPV is non-linear, every season has maximum and minimum spikes to various degrees.

I used models like the CFSv2 in years such as 2018-19 (my most recent winter forecast) in helping to anticipate major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events at long ranges. The issue with this is the model has a negative bias with hindcasting zonal mean zonal winds at 60N 10hPa that might not necessarily reflect the actual forecast. Simon Lee has a great thread on this matter below.

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/statu...288178176?s=20

I felt confident on using this model to anticipate a major SSW of some kind during December 2018 or January 2019 due to a theory regarding increased risk of such when the QBO is transitioning from easterly to westerly. Fortunately, this indeed verified but the effects were very different from the major SSW event in February 2018 of course. The hindcast of the CFSv2 is again showing weak zonal mean zonal winds for the autumn into the winter period but not to be relied upon and I don't have any other factors like the QBO in 2018-19 to make me consider otherwise this time.

To answer a question set forth by hatrickpatrick, I think the earliest the annual stratosphere watch thread should be created is late October. You or anybody else are obviously more than welcome to do so any time but that's just my opinion.

Meanwhile, on the ENSO side of things, we are firmly into weak La Nina now and it's looking more like an East Pacific (EP) Nina at the moment. Models like Glosea5 and CanSIPS show the possibility of this La Nina strengthening to strong levels by the end of the year. As mentioned prior, strong ENSO events historically do not correlate well for high latitude blocking dominated winters in our part of the world though the analog record of such is small. I think the chances of a strong La Nina are low at the moment with moderate having the highest probability. La Nina events favour the earlier part of the winter to having an increased chance of -NAO whilst the latter part favours +NAO so La Nina winters tend to be more front-loaded although, especially with weak events, this link is weak with decent number of exceptions from the past.

Anyway, I digress.
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Yesterday, 21:28   #54
Oneiric 3
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Fairly typical 'La Nina' pattern over the N. American continent:



which would suggest that explosive lows would easier develop of the eastern seaboard, but which really means nothing for us as 1. this could amplify high pressure zone over the central or NE Atlantic or, just keep the pattern flat and stormy over us, with the latter pattern slightly more likely if the La Nina remains in weak state.
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