Autumn 2014

maquiladora · 10-11-2014 8:12pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Actually puts a small patch 50-60 knot mean winds in the Irish Sea!

Yes, looks to be about 30 m/s sustained in the Irish Sea on the ECM. A higher res model with more intervals would probably yield even stronger winds. Or maybe the ECM is overdoing it a bit. Needs careful watching though, that could be very nasty indeed.

maquiladora · 10-11-2014 9:31pm

Had a look at the ECM postage stamps. It's such a small and fast moving feature it's hard to get a proper impression from the lower res panels but it seems about half the members go for something at least similar to the operational at 72 hours.

Definitely keeping a close eye on this.

ninebeanrows · 10-11-2014 10:54pm

Certainly something signalled on the lower res GFS with some very strong winds for eastern counties

maquiladora · 10-11-2014 11:02pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Certainly something signalled on the lower res GFS with some very strong winds for eastern counties

Yes, both old and new GFS show that secondary low. Not as severe on those models but I think the ECM handles these small intense lows better than the GFS. Will be interesting once it gets into HIRLAM/EURO4 range tomorrow.

Iancar29 · 11-11-2014 9:29am

00z Nae 12km res showing up to 60kt gusts in the Irish sea , probably not as bad as the ECM showed being closer to high tide , we still need to see the higher res runs later .

Flooding could be an issue with the amount of rain already yesterday and more today before this band forecast on thursday. Warranting its own thread perhaps?

maquiladora · 11-11-2014 9:40am

0Z ECM looks to be a bit weaker and further east. Really need the higher-res models with this feature since its so small and fast moving.

maquiladora · 11-11-2014 1:45pm

Here it is on the 06Z EURO4 at 48 hours, strengthening down around the Bay Of Biscay. Very small area of storm force winds at that point. Could prove a surprise for somewhere, maybe Wales, maybe the east coast here, depends on the track. Will have a better idea after the 12Z runs are out.

KingdomRushed · 11-11-2014 4:05pm

Do the current weather conditions on the East coast warrant a thread? The UK met and met eireann have lots of live flood and rain warnings.

Calibos · 11-11-2014 4:16pm

Ah jaysus. What looks like a squall line in the radar rather than running across us in Bray and thus be short lived is actually tracking NW up the country like an arrow aimed through the beating heart of Bray

maquiladora · 11-11-2014 4:57pm

12Z HIRLAM shows the secondary low sliding up the Irish Sea with the strongest winds reaching the UK coastal fringes rather than the East Coast here.

12Z GFS has a very similar track, with the small windfield being felt on the UK coast rather than here. It then spins up another secondary low which crosses the south of the country later than night.

Will have to see what the ECM and EURO4 do later. A complex wet and windy spell coming up...

maquiladora · 11-11-2014 7:09pm

12Z EURO4. Sustained winds touching 65 mph on this chart as it approaches Cornwall. Gales along the east coast here.

12Z ECM also showing the strongest winds heading for southwest England and Wales.

ECU1-48.GIF?11-0

Looks like the east coast won't see any severe winds if this verifies but the track could still change before Thursday, and the GFS shows the possibility of another secondary low spinning up.

goat2 · 12-11-2014 1:08pm

i am wondering what the weather will be like on the 20th and 21th november am hoping for no wind and rain on those days, need dry and calm

maquiladora · 12-11-2014 1:13pm

A risk of gusts briefly reaching ~110km/h on the east coast tomorrow if the 06Z WRF verified.

nmm_uk1-11-30-0.png?12-12

There is an orange and yellow warning for rainfall and I guess there will be a wind warning issued later.

STATUS ORANGE

Rainfall Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath and Monaghan

A spell of heavy rain on Thursday followed by another spell of heavy rain on Thursday night will give rainfall accumulation of 40 to 60 mm with localised flooding.
Issued:
Wednesday 12 November 2014 11:00
Valid:
Thursday 13 November 2014 06:00 to Friday 14 November 2014 09:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Munster, Connacht, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Offaly, Westmeath, Cavan and Donegal

Heavy rain overnight and on Thursday will give rainfall accumulations of 25 to 40 mm with localised flooding
Issued:
Monday 10 November 2014 20:00
Valid:
Thursday 13 November 2014 00:01 to Thursday 13 November 2014 20:00

Larbre34 · 12-11-2014 3:51pm

goat2 wrote: »

i am wondering what the weather will be like on the 20th and 21th november am hoping for no wind and rain on those days, need dry and calm

With very little confidence, at the moment it is showing average temps, 8/10 in a slack SW flow with showers in Munster and Connacht. That will change many times before the forecast is issued on the 19th.

ninebeanrows · 12-11-2014 8:17pm

The polar charts are beginning to look cack, that PV lobe over eastern Canada is going to intensify the jetstream across the North Atlantic, can't be too optimistic about the next 3-4 weeks.....increasingly zonal, wet and increasingly stormy would be my 4 week outlook...

What a difference a week makes!

rickdangerouss · 12-11-2014 9:40pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

The polar charts are beginning to look cack, that PV lobe over eastern Canada is going to intensify the jetstream across the North Atlantic, can't be too optimistic about the next 3-4 weeks.....increasingly zonal, wet and increasingly stormy would be my 4 week outlook...

What a difference a week makes!

Maybe it's a few runs, the trend could show up again.

Simon, has a about 30% chance of a December cold snap. better than last year anyway.