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House Prices 2021

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    #92
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    awec wrote: »
    :confused:

    They are there to protect consumers and help stabilise the market by avoiding huge surges in prices. This in turn shields the banks.

    The lending rules have demonstrably succeeded in capping price surges, their ability to soften drops is an untested theory so far.

    I imagine we will know soon enough.


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    #93
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭Villa05


    awec wrote:
    The lending rules have demonstrably succeeded in capping price surges, their ability to soften drops is an untested theory so far.


    With around 50% of sales cash, I suspect these were the reits and vulture funds. They purchased with a government granted close to 0 tax on income from these assets. This would put a significant premium on the property. This then pushes up the price for everyone else
    I think they may have a capital gains tax exemption if they hold the property for certain period of time., which is probably up now

    That is some gift from the state to foreign private funds who basically milked Irish people and businesses for all they could get out of them.

    This, to me is the big uncertainty, These institutions struck gold here, will they now flood the market when the tide is starting to turn the other way.

    Nama 2.0 anyone?


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    #94
    Ray Palmer
    Registered Users Posts: 8,352 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Villa05 wrote: »
    With around 50% of sales cash, I suspect these were the reits and vulture funds. They purchased with a government granted close to 0 tax on income from these assets. This would put a significant premium on the property. This then pushes up the price for everyone else
    I think they may have a capital gains tax exemption if they hold the property for certain period of time., which is probably up now

    That is some gift from the state to foreign private funds who basically milked Irish people and businesses for all they could get out of them.

    This, to me is the big uncertainty, These institutions struck gold here, will they now flood the market when the tide is starting to turn the other way.

    Nama 2.0 anyone?

    Again this is pretty misleading. I dislike how REIT have been allowed tax breaks but their effect is limited.

    They aren't buying houses but entire apartments blocks and also funding their construction in the first place. The property simply wouldn't exist without foreign funding. They aren't pushing up the prices as a result if anything they are lowering it by increasing supply.

    NGOs buying entire housing estates and renting them as social housing cause more issues in housing on Dublin. Apartments make up a small portion of housing in the country.

    Fine if you want prices lower but there is real causes for high prices without exaggerating minor contributing factors


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    #95
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    The lending rules exist to protect the banks liquidity because they are incapable of regulating themselves.

    They are not there to protect consumers or the government.
    They are not there to maintain high house prices, lower them or stabilise them.

    they absolutely are to protect the consumer from themselves. We saw what happened last time, properties that were clearly bad financial decisions and consumers went mad queuing for them.

    I think those rules will absolutely be key to the recovery, will mean the banks can't just grand approval to some lad who's spent the last 5-6 months on the covid payment / JSB and go 'well shure your back to work behind the bar now, everythings grand'


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    #96
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    they absolutely are to protect the consumer from themselves. We saw what happened last time, properties that were clearly bad financial decisions and consumers went mad queuing for them.

    I think those rules will absolutely be key to the recovery, will mean the banks can't just grand approval to some lad who's spent the last 5-6 months on the covid payment / JSB and go 'well shure your back to work behind the bar now, everythings grand'

    I tend to agree with this.

    I think we'll see large price drops at the higher end of the market.

    I tend to think the average joe will be protected from huge 50% swings in prices (still expect some swings; just don't think Ill be getting my house in Killiney for 300k) I think any exceptions will be gone, so people will be limited to 3.5x their salary.

    So it all depends on salaries and whether your job survives or not etc.


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    #97
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Ray Palmer wrote:
    They aren't buying houses but entire apartments blocks and also funding their construction in the first place. The property simply wouldn't exist without foreign funding. They aren't pushing up the prices as a result if anything they are lowering it by increasing supply.

    You sure about that, as a person who was buying at that time and was in the loop with others in the same position. There were a load of one off properties that were pulled from the market as banks were putting them in portfolios for sale to investors

    Ray Palmer wrote:
    NGOs buying entire housing estates and renting them as social housing cause more issues in housing on Dublin. Apartments make up a small portion of housing in the country.
    Nobody is proposing that, Many people working are having there rent subsidised by the state. Why sell to private landlords and then supplement the income through subsidies. Why not let a housing association manage it let it generate income

    Yes but apartments make up a signicant portion of stock in high demand areas.
    Ray Palmer wrote:
    Again this is pretty misleading. I dislike how REIT have been allowed tax breaks but their effect is limited.

    Many land banks were sold, and sat on. if you were handing out tax breaks, why not stipulate that something productive be done with those lands


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    #98
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    I tend to agree with this.

    I think we'll see large price drops at the higher end of the market.

    I tend to think the average joe will be protected from huge 50% swings in prices (still expect some swings; just don't think Ill be getting my house in Killiney for 300k) I think any exceptions will be gone, so people will be limited to 3.5x their salary.

    So it all depends on salaries and whether your job survives or not etc.

    definitely agree, the >750k houses are where we'll see the double digit percentage drops, Id be shocked if the <350k properties in Ireland budged by anything more than 7-8% , the gap in the middle there will be very regional in its swing, in Dublin moving by a few percent, rurally moving 10-15%.


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    #99
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    definitely agree, the >750k houses are where we'll see the double digit percentage drops, Id be shocked if the <350k properties in Ireland budged by anything more than 7-8% , the gap in the middle there will be very regional in its swing, in Dublin moving by a few percent, rurally moving 10-15%.

    Again, I tend to agree.

    We are very lucky as a couple; neither are affected by this.

    My GF works in tech and business is BOOMING. Sales are up, targets have been hit, bonuses are bigger than any month this year.

    It'll be interesting to see when things open up fully; what segments of the market will be affected. Obviously if the bottom rung goes it will all be dragged down somewhat, but i think theres a large middle section there who haven't lost their job who are now all waiting for their bargain to somewhat keep prices up. Interesting (and scary) times ahead.


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    #100
    addaword
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭addaword


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    definitely agree, the >750k houses are where we'll see the double digit percentage drops, Id be shocked if the <350k properties in Ireland budged by anything more than 7-8% , the gap in the middle there will be very regional in its swing, in Dublin moving by a few percent, rurally moving 10-15%.

    Some said that in 07 too. Yet within a few years it fell 50%


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    #101
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    addaword wrote: »
    Some said that in 07 too. Yet within a few years it fell 50%

    Hard to call. All speculation at this point. There will definitely be drops. 50%, I am not so sure......

    I wasn't exactly following things in 07; did we have a large cohort of people who did not lose their jobs? And were in fact seeing increases in the money in their pockets due to the crash?


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    #102
    sanfranbest
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭sanfranbest


    Lets see how much this property drops in price.

    Asking price in 2012 was 365K

    Now in 2020 its 695k

    94 Harold's Cross Cottages
    Harold's Cross, Dublin 6, D06 Y5A0, Ireland


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    #103
    addaword
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭addaword


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    I wasn't exactly following things in 07; did we have a large cohort of people who did not lose their jobs? And were in fact seeing increases in the money in their pockets due to the crash?

    In '07 some people done well, for example some people who sold building sites or land for development before the crash.

    In 08, 09, 10, not everyone in the hotel industry, aviation, pubs, restaurants, catering etc was out of work or struggling...
    sanfranbest wrote: »
    Lets see how much this property drops in price.

    Asking price in 2012 was 365K

    Now in 2020 its 695k

    94 Harold's Cross Cottages
    Harold's Cross, Dublin 6, D06 Y5A0, Ireland

    A 50% drop would see it back to 347,500. That would be about right, all things going ok. The drop could be worse than that though, that is the worry.


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    #104
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    addaword wrote: »
    In '07 some people done well, for example some people who sold building sites or land for development before the crash.

    In 08, 09, 10, not everyone in the hotel industry, aviation, pubs, restaurants, catering etc was out of work or struggling...



    A 50% drop would see it back to 347,500. That would be about right, all things going ok. The drop could be worse than that though, that is the worry.

    How do you reach your valuation on the harolds cross property? I think the asking price is very high but 50% drop sounds a lot.


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    #105
    addaword
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭addaword


    Hubertj wrote: »
    How do you reach your valuation on the harolds cross property? I think the asking price is very high but 50% drop sounds a lot.

    Supply and demand. A property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. Like everyone else in 07 I did not think property would fall 50%. With hindsight, I know of some that fell 80%. And in that buyers market, even after the crash, there was still always a functioning hotel, restaurant, pub, aviation, tourism industry.

    I did not expect a 50% drop the last time. I expect at least 50% drop this time, maybe more, depending on if and when a vaccine is widely available. 80% drop if it is never available or takes more than 5 or 10 years.

    Maybe I am cynical in my old age, I made the mistake of trusting the experts back in 07. I pity some young people buying now, or who bought in the past year, especially if their jobs are not very secure. And some people who thought their jobs were secure 3 months ago are now out of work eg pilots, employees of big hotel chains, people in the wedding or hospitality or tourism industry etc.


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    #106
    bdmc5
    Closed Accounts Posts: 149 ✭✭bdmc5


    addaword wrote: »
    Supply and demand. A property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. Like everyone else in 07 I did not think property would fall 50%. With hindsight, I know of some that fell 80%. And in that buyers market, even after the crash, there was still always a functioning hotel, restaurant, pub, aviation, tourism industry.

    I did not expect a 50% drop the last time. I expect at least 50% drop this time, maybe more, depending on if and when a vaccine is widely available. 80% drop if it is never available or takes more than 5 or 10 years.

    Maybe I am cynical in my old age, I made the mistake of trusting the experts back in 07. I pity some young people buying now, or who bought in the past year, especially if their jobs are not very secure. And some people who thought their jobs were secure 3 months ago are now out of work eg pilots, employees of big hotel chains, people in the wedding or hospitality or tourism industry etc.

    Hard to know where to start with this post. Dramatic oversupply of poor quality housing along the reckless lending and speculation in property drove the last recession. This time there is strong demand for housing with a chronic lack of supply and mortgage caps in place

    The tourism and hospitality temporarily closed for a few months doesn’t compare With 2007 but there will be undoubtedly be a rough year ahead for the economy but Hospitality and tourism be opening again for summer albeit with covid regulations in place so many could find themselves in employment again.

    There still tens of thousands of people’s working in multinationals and civil service working from home financially unimpacted so talk of 50 percent to 80 percent declines is unfounded scaremongering In the extreme.


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    #107
    Ninap
    Registered Users Posts: 528 ✭✭✭Ninap


    addaword wrote: »
    Supply and demand. A property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. Like everyone else in 07 I did not think property would fall 50%. With hindsight, I know of some that fell 80%. And in that buyers market, even after the crash, there was still always a functioning hotel, restaurant, pub, aviation, tourism industry.

    I did not expect a 50% drop the last time. I expect at least 50% drop this time, maybe more, depending on if and when a vaccine is widely available. 80% drop if it is never available or takes more than 5 or 10 years.

    Maybe I am cynical in my old age, I made the mistake of trusting the experts back in 07. I pity some young people buying now, or who bought in the past year, especially if their jobs are not very secure. And some people who thought their jobs were secure 3 months ago are now out of work eg pilots, employees of big hotel chains, people in the wedding or hospitality or tourism industry etc.

    yeah, you can 'pity young people buying now', but what exactly do you think they should do instead? Pay more in rent? I bought a place in 2004 and remortgaged in 2007 to buy another place. You would think, having bought at the top of the market, that I would be badly burnt. But i got a tracker in 2007, so a 500k mortgage costs less than 2k a month, with the interest now amounting to about 300 a month. The rent on the property would be well in excess of the mortgage, and of course miles ahead of the actual interest charge. The rest of the payment is paying off the loan and therefore buying the property. So, for me, buying now, if you can get a mortgage at a reasonable rate, would still make a lot of sense.


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    #108
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    addaword wrote: »
    Supply and demand. A property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. Like everyone else in 07 I did not think property would fall 50%. With hindsight, I know of some that fell 80%. And in that buyers market, even after the crash, there was still always a functioning hotel, restaurant, pub, aviation, tourism industry.

    I did not expect a 50% drop the last time. I expect at least 50% drop this time, maybe more, depending on if and when a vaccine is widely available. 80% drop if it is never available or takes more than 5 or 10 years.

    Maybe I am cynical in my old age, I made the mistake of trusting the experts back in 07. I pity some young people buying now, or who bought in the past year, especially if their jobs are not very secure. And some people who thought their jobs were secure 3 months ago are now out of work eg pilots, employees of big hotel chains, people in the wedding or hospitality or tourism industry etc.

    Thanks for the insight. I’m sorry things didn’t work out for you last time.


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    #109
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Again, I tend to agree.

    We are very lucky as a couple; neither are affected by this.

    My GF works in tech and business is BOOMING. Sales are up, targets have been hit, bonuses are bigger than any month this year.
    .

    Little bit of advice.

    If you are doing well, keep quiet.

    There are hundreds of thousands that do not know if they will have a job to go back to, so someone crowing that they are in the money due to this pandemic is not what exactly what people want to hear.


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    #110
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    Darc19 wrote: »
    Little bit of advice.

    If you are doing well, keep quiet.

    There are hundreds of thousands that do not know if they will have a job to go back to, so someone crowing that they are in the money due to this pandemic is not what exactly what people want to hear.

    Here's some advice in return, if you don't want to hear about reality maybe don't come on an internet forum ?

    This is a thread on property prices.

    I am all for a drop and it's terrible so many are out of work, but it's ignoring reality to not account for and discuss the fact that there are also hundreds of thousands on full wage and the sector which arguably contributed to high costs / rents in Dublin is booming with no sign of slowdown.

    Anyone in this unaffected group I know is now on the property bandwagon. Some quite young people in my girlfriend's place (who could be 22-25 and earn far more than I did at that age) are now also talking about "grabbing a cheap apartment".....asking her what broker she went to etc.

    Every dog on the street is now talking about house prices falling. It's self fulfilling and almost guaranteed, but when the buying restarts I fear it may shoot back up to current levels with all this renewed interest.


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    #111
    marieholmfan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,744 ✭✭✭marieholmfan


    falling prices make it very very hard to get a mortgage.


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    #112
    bdmc5
    Closed Accounts Posts: 149 ✭✭bdmc5


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Equally reckless? Seriously? How can you write that with a straight face.

    People talking down the house prices at the start of one of the biggest economic shocks in the history of the state are equally reckless to people saying house prices will stay the same or go up. Wow.

    Yes exactly you got it in one, equally reckless
    . Anyone on here advising anyone to buy because house prices will go up or don't buy because prices will go down and you'll get it cheaper in a year are advising from a position of total ignorance as they don't know what will happen to house prices or supply.

    Loads of posters like you love to throw out phrases like we are going into 'biggest shocks in history' but we have no idea yet the wider ranging implications of the last 3 month on housing. Don't get so upset because t i don't agree with you.

    When I see posters coming on here genuinely looking for advice I see alot of disingenuous advice from people on both sides of fence. Let me guess you are not a homeowner ya?


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    #113
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    bdmc5 wrote: »
    Yes exactly you got it in one, equally reckless
    . Anyone on here advising anyone to buy because house prices will go up or don't buy because prices will go down and you'll get it cheaper in a year are advising from a position of total ignorance as they don't know what will happen to house prices or supply.

    Loads of posters like you love to throw out phrases like we are going into 'biggest shocks in history' but we have no idea yet the wider ranging implications of the last 3 month on housing. Don't get so upset because t i don't agree with you.

    When I see posters coming on here genuinely looking for advice I see alot of disingenuous advice from people on both sides of fence. Let me guess you are not a homeowner ya?

    Ah stop will you. This is unprecedented. How can you not see or acknowledge that?

    Yes it's only Boards posters "throwing out phrases"....oh look, this morning's headline on RTE.ie
    The Economic and Social Research Institute has described the Covid-19 outbreak as a major shock to economic life which is unprecedented in modern times.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0528/1143073-esri-stimulus-call/
    In its latest quarterly economic commentary for summer 2020, the ESRI warns that in a best to middle case situation the economy risks contracting by 9-12% and unemployment reaching between 10-17% .

    In a worst case situation, where a second surge of the virus emerges, the economy will contract by up to 17% and unemployment levels will hit 20% over a consistent period of time.

    Equally reckless :D

    To answer your snide question: I have been a home owner since 2000. In fact I did a self build in the countryside. I have no intentions of selling or buying.
    I just do not want to see anyone jumping straight into negative equity as the economy contracts significantly.


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    #114
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Ray Palmer wrote:
    Again this is pretty misleading. I dislike how REIT have been allowed tax breaks but their effect is limited. Fine if you want prices lower but there is real causes for high prices without exaggerating minor contributing factors

    All effects are limited, when you add them up, they become substantial.
    The vast majority of these effects are Government controlled either directly or indirectly


    Ray Palmer wrote:
    Many of the wealthiest countries have historical reason for their abilities such as the death of huge parts of their population, destruction of masses of housing stock, huge reparation payments etc... We literally can't do what they do. They also protect landlords in these counties.

    The Netherlands is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, they in some cases have to reclaim/make land to build.

    Over a third of housing is social (not that they call it that) and 70% of rentals are controlled by housing associations and the beauty is that it is all self financing.

    Holland has some of the most expensive cities in the world, yet they can protect key workers who make those cities great places from high accommodation costs.
    Austria and some of the scandanavian countries operate similar models
    Ray Palmer wrote:
    When you put all the risk on to developers and landlords you have to pay a premium for what they supply. Want cheaper rents and mortgage then you have to allow easier evictions and ways to recover non payment.

    I don't dispute that but would argue that we can't afford that premium when the alternative is half the cost, and potentially revenue positive.
    Agreed on evictions and recovering non payment. The right to housing has to be balanced with the need to play ball for a system to work.
    Non payment and consistent anti social behaviour must effect your dis/qualification for subsidised housing


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    #115
    Glory83
    Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭Glory83


    I live in Cork and I notice that sellers are starting to pull their properties of the market due to the lack of interest in their asking prices. They have rented them again when I checked with EA.
    I am afraid that will be the scenario moving forward. If the properties' prices drop significantly due to Covid-19, the supply will also drop because homeowners will not sell unless they are absolutely forced to. The decreased supply of properties will eventually lead to bidding wars and drive the prices up again.

    What do you think.


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    #116
    SteelyDanJalapeno
    Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    Glory83 wrote: »
    I live in Cork and I notice that sellers are starting to pull their properties of the market due to the lack of interest in their asking prices. They have rented them again when I checked with EA.
    I am afraid that will be the scenario moving forward. If the properties' prices drop significantly due to Covid-19, the supply will also drop because homeowners will not sell unless they are absolutely forced to. The decreased supply of properties will eventually lead to bidding wars and drive the prices up again.

    What do you think.

    Good news for rentals, the price should start coming down there so


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    #117
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,575 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Glory83 wrote: »
    What do you think.
    In a falling market the good stock always disappears.


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    #118
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    Ninap wrote: »
    yeah, you can 'pity young people buying now', but what exactly do you think they should do instead? Pay more in rent?

    Rents are dropping faster than. A friend just moved into a luxury rental in Gran Canal where they have dropped the rent by 50% for 3 months initially. I suspect that will end and they will be delighted to extend.


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    #119
    DubCount
    Registered Users Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭DubCount


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    Rents are dropping faster than. A friend just moved into a luxury rental in Gran Canal where they have dropped the rent by 50% for 3 months initially. I suspect that will end and they will be delighted to extend.

    The rental market is even more uncertain than the property sale market. Lots of short term rentals available with students not in college, workers working from home, and short term lets through Airbnb etc looking for short term deals until tourism returns. The rental market of 6 months time could be very different, especially as unemployment fuels more HAP approved tenants looking for rentals. Besides, luxury rentals in Grand Canal Docks is hardly a typical rental.


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    #120
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Here's some advice in return, if you don't want to hear about reality maybe don't come on an internet forum ?

    This is a thread on property prices.
    .

    Exactly. It's about how people feel property prices will go. Just saying many people are having a hard time, so be careful about saying everything is very rosy in your garden.

    As for prices, I'd agree with you. There will be a short term drop and probably followed by a small rise and price becoming realistic

    Main reason is that the stock market is back near Nov levels and whilst no one wants job losses, the vast majority of the losses will be in the lower, casual employment sector where many people are not looking at house buying anyway.

    And the three biggest primary employment sectors here are pharma, tech and food. Three areas that have seen little or no affect.


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    #121
    polaco
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭polaco


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    Rents are dropping faster than. A friend just moved into a luxury rental in Gran Canal where they have dropped the rent by 50% for 3 months initially. I suspect that will end and they will be delighted to extend.

    Did he get discount on that 10k penthouse??:D:D


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