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10-01-2020, 20:18   #1
Meteorite58
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Storm Brendan Monday 13 Jan 2020 ** See Mod note in OP before posting**

Worth opening a dedicated thread for the storm next Monday. Whilst at the moment it looks like we might miss the strongest winds as they look to keep off the NW, models after downgrading the winds over the last couple of days seem to be increasing them again over the last couple of runs. The storm is deepening as it approaches off the W.

Most notable is the increase in winds in the SW and along Southern and SE counties. Looks at present like the strongest winds keeping to along coastal counties . Currently looks like winds tipping 130 and maybe up to 140 km/h along W coastal fringes and 110 to 120 along the SW , S and SE. Looks like getting up to 80 to 90 km/h overland and possibly squally as the front goes through giving stronger local winds.

As ever this is not a definite and could increase or decrease, the way the models all upgraded the wind speeds and bringing the core of the winds quite close leads me to think that they could increase further but that is only my opinion. Next few runs will give a clearer picture.

Big seas also to be expected.

Rain not as big an issue atm ( maybe 10 to 15mm looking at present ) but adds to the difficult conditions when so windy.























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Last edited by Meteorite58; 12-01-2020 at 09:03.
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10-01-2020, 20:33   #2
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Bombogenesis .

Can see how fast the pressure drops in this system as it rapidly intensifies along the boundary of the relatively mild and very cold air mass , over 40 mb in 24 hrs from what I can make out. Looks like it could get down to 938mb












Last edited by Meteorite58; 10-01-2020 at 20:40.
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10-01-2020, 20:50   #3
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ARPEGE looks the strongest overland atm, about the same as ECM on the coasts, ICON next and GFS not far behind.

How close the strongest core gets will be interesting. Amazing how closely bunched the models are at this stage and it hasn't even formed yet! Of course this will be deepening so quickly and moving so fast that the track and strength could easily change some bit .


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Last edited by Meteorite58; 10-01-2020 at 20:53.
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10-01-2020, 21:25   #4
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ICON 18Z out anda bit stronger than last run especially overland . In all the Storm to me is looking tighter than before bringing the core much closer again than earlier runs.




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10-01-2020, 21:27   #5
 
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Some interesting weather might finally be on the way
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11-01-2020, 01:02   #6
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ECM 18C showing a big jump in wind strength especially the W and around Mayo and Donegal especially on this run. Now showing the storm closer again and showing winds penetrating further inland in the W and also showing stronger winds in Southern counties and penetrating further inland there also.

The risk of severe winds in the W starting to certainly make an appearance now.

Southern counties also showing some very strong winds.

















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11-01-2020, 01:13   #7
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11-01-2020, 01:27   #8
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11-01-2020, 10:27   #9
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That's one heck of a storm size-wise! I'm expecting it to get watered down as usual but probably still strong enough. Although you never know.
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11-01-2020, 10:31   #10
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Wow that is one large storm as artane said. I'd imagine it will get slightly watered down but it's so close to the event at current and it's still boosting speeds.
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11-01-2020, 11:06   #11
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Slight adjustment by the ECM 0Z bringing the center out a little bit and in turn bringing the wind speeds back a small bit on this run. In general looks like gusting up around 120 km/h in SW, S and SE counties. The W looks like getting up around 100 to 110 km/h , up around 120 km/h on coasts and parts of Mayo and Donegal could see as high as 130 to 140 km/h going by the last couple of runs. Inland could see winds 80 to 90 km/h and locally up to 100km/h especialy on higher ground as the front goes through.

[Imgur](https://imgur.com/IFvIn9B)











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11-01-2020, 11:12   #12
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11-01-2020, 11:44   #13
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The low develops on what's currently a slack trough currently in the Great Lakes region. The northerly cold outbreak down Baffin Bay strengthens the jet to over 200 knots tomorrow, leading to rapic cyclogenesis east of New Foundland. The exact track of the surface low will depend on how it phases with the upper jet, so small changes in that will lead to relatively large differences in what we ultimately get come Monday/Tuesday. That will have to be closely monitored in the next 18-24 hours.




But, to the guys in Galway CC, regardless of what colour warning is finally issued, please note that it looks like a strong core of southerly/southwesterly winds will coincide with high tide on Monday evening. The same situation as the last time, so heads up and keep an eye on things. No excuses for letting the same thing happen in Salthill again.
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11-01-2020, 12:10   #14
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At present what colour warnings are we looking at for Galway
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11-01-2020, 12:10   #15
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Not looking forward to this one.

I hate high winds.
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