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UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

19293959798114

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭tinpib


    I see the Hype-Train-Formerly-known-as Francis Ngannou is 2.75 on PP to beat Blaydes. Maybe that Miocic fight did destroy him but I think he could possibly be back to close to what he was and take Blaydes.

    Can't believe that price, how the mighty have fallen, he was odds on to beat Miocic early this year for the title.

    Early prelims from Beijing at 815am, main card at 11am on BT Sport 2 BTW tomorrow morning.

    edit: 11:30am, it's on now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Feels sycophantic even writing this but surely Ortiz to beat Liddell at 1/3 is the greatest 1/3 shot of all time. 8 years since Liddell's last fight and he looks like Grandpa Simpson in the training videos. A complete lump job for me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I think blaydes will take ngannou this time and it'll be takedown after takedown

    cant see a whole lot else but the double of blaydes and the reem fight not to go the distance works out around 11/10
    I don't know reems opponent though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 802 ✭✭✭KingJamsie


    mailburner wrote: »
    I think blaydes will take ngannou this time and it'll be takedown after takedown

    cant see a whole lot else but the double of blaydes and the reem fight not to go the distance works out around 11/10
    I don't know reems opponent though.

    I feel like you're having rotten luck lately :eek:

    On to the next one!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    KingJamsie wrote: »
    I feel like you're having rotten luck lately :eek:

    On to the next one!

    I can live with bad luck but the zombie fight took the biscuit :pac:

    francis is back, after the lewis fight I just couldn't have him against
    a guy on a tear in the hw div, caught him nice and early so we'll never know how it would have panned out had it gone past a round or two.
    You look at him yesterday and you wonder how on earth lewis beat him but I guess if ever there was a time to fight francis it was right after the stipe fight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    dulux99 wrote: »
    Feels sycophantic even writing this but surely Ortiz to beat Liddell at 1/3 is the greatest 1/3 shot of all time. 8 years since Liddell's last fight and he looks like Grandpa Simpson in the training videos. A complete lump job for me.

    Phew.

    Went to back it again later in the night but he was 2/9. Went to bed and dreamt Tito got beat. A horrible nightmare.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    back for more pain...

    jds beats a guy like tuivasa every day of the week for me and usman will beat rda also (price of 2/5 is absolute muck tho)

    double pays almost 13/10

    adding in pedro brings it to 7/4 or more....surely there's no danger there against shogun.


    bit surprised hunt is the underdog v willis also albeit only a narrow one.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    mailburner wrote: »
    back for more pain...

    jds beats a guy like tuivasa every day of the week for me and usman will beat rda also (price of 2/5 is absolute muck tho)

    double pays almost 13/10

    adding in pedro brings it to 7/4 or more....surely there's no danger there against shogun.


    bit surprised hunt is the underdog v willis also albeit only a narrow one.

    I'm less confident on JDS. He's been alternating between wins and losses since 2012. Mentally, I think that could effect him.
    2nd thing is this is only really his 3rd fight abroad & it will be his first time fighting a home fighter with significant atmosphere behind him.
    Something happened to rile Tuivasa up at weigh-in... I can see him landing something big early.
    Sadly Tuivasa is only 2.75 to win by KO

    Usman & Pedro I def agree with


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    means fight not to go the distance was 1.95, seemed a bit big but didn't bet on it


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭tinpib


    In this next fight I think that Horcher is good value at 3.5, I know nothing about either fighter but the other dude only had 4 fights according to Sherdog and is a very heavy favourite.

    Maybe he is the second coming, but I posted before that it seems to happen a lot that a guy is strong fav on his UFC debut and finds there is a huge difference in class from where they were fighting before and they end up losing.

    edit 6 not 4 fights.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Same as that
    Price on horcher seems big to me


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    batista surely worth a bet here and surprised he's the underdog

    no more that the girls fight there neither fight was priced up on oddschecker


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    mailburner wrote: »
    batista surely worth a bet here and surprised he's the underdog

    no more that the girls fight there neither fight was priced up on oddschecker
    Yikes!
    Last thing I expected


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    hunt is 13/10 now

    what am I missing? why such an underdog and why the drift?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    mailburner wrote: »
    hunt is 13/10 now

    what am I missing? why such an underdog and why the drift?

    He's almost 45 and is like an old creaky ship. He needs to jack it in


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭Porthallian


    dulux99 wrote: »
    He's almost 45 and is like an old creaky ship. He needs to jack it in

    I saw Willis fight Sterman live in New Jersey and wasn't one bit impressed. Could be another walk-off KO for Hunt


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭tinpib


    UFC ceremonial weigh in nonsense on now. My gut says/hopes Valentina will smash Joanna, but got a shock at the price. Joanna is 3.75, that's absolutely huge. Valentina 1.28.

    I think Joanna could be similar to Ngannou recently, some poor performances and suddenly written off, she might be back to her devastating best again. At that price I think she is worth a punt [ but would be happy if Valentina wins, she deserves a break after fights falling apart recently].


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,397 ✭✭✭xtal191


    I honestly don't see how Joanna can beat Valentina


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I think shev might win but the odds on jj are ridiculously big imo

    will be closer than the odds suggest I think


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    xtal191 wrote: »
    I honestly don't see how Joanna can beat Valentina

    Me either. Shev is a counter striker and JJ is all forward, Shev much stronger also. Odds are correct imo. I know it's a different sport but it's hard to ignore that Shev has beaten her 3 times in Thai boxing


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  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭d00mk1n


    Hakeem Dawodu by decision

    17/10 w/ Paddy Power

    A Canadian Featherweight fighter who has won by decision on a Canada card before

    His opponent only has losses by decision


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭preddy


    Gunni on points? 7/1

    Oliveira has decent sub record so no going to be caught easily.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Oliveira sub at evens stands out for me so I took that

    Hooker has looked great but he's the underdog in some lists v barboza which I find hard to believe
    This is the acid test for him but barboza for me

    Font pettis to go the distance at 8/11 I like also and very hard to oppose Kevin Lee

    Accum pays almost 8/1 tho I'm sure one will let me down at the very least


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    mailburner wrote: »
    Oliveira sub at evens stands out for me so I took that

    Hooker has looked great but he's the underdog in some lists v barboza which I find hard to believe
    This is the acid test for him but barboza for me

    Font pettis to go the distance at 8/11 I like also and very hard to oppose Kevin Lee

    Accum pays almost 8/1 tho I'm sure one will let me down at the very least

    fcuk sake kevin lee :( thought I was sorted after the first three obliging

    should have lumped on that oliveira sub


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭tinpib


    Like others have posted on the main UFC 232 card thread, I think Nunes is a brilliant price at 2.9 to beat Cyborg.

    In many ways Cyborg is a hype machine, her name/nickname, her reputation from when she used to smash people to bits back when she looked 'stronger'.

    Recently she has looked more average. 'Soccermom' Tonya Evinger took her 3 rounds, she beat Holly on points, then outclassed Kunitskaya who seemed to get her shot via an administrative error of a fly squashed on a typewriter as in in the movie Brazil.

    Nunes is a completely different prospect, on a long winning streak and with the power and tools to stop opponents and not get a bore decision like the majority of women's fights.

    Also there is the aura of the physical size of Cyborg, according to wiki both women are 5ft 8", let's see how Cyborg responds against an equal sized opponent with KO power.

    2.9 is an incredible price on Nunes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    plenty of 2s and boyles go 9/4 on nunes https://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/amanda-nunes-v-cristiane-justino/winner

    money is coming for her bigtime now, loads were 12/5 or 9/4 a couple of
    days ago

    I agree though in that she has all the tools to stop cyborg if she doesnt get
    clipped early herself


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭tinpib


    Was just about to edit my post, indeed 3.25 available on Boyles, I hadn't checked. A brilliant price.

    Have also gone with Gus to win, 3.4 available. I think that's crazy again. Their first fight was 48–47, 48–47, 49–46, no reason to think it won't be similar. I could see Gus outpointing him. Prices should be a lot closer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    tinpib wrote: »
    Was just about to edit my post, indeed 3.25 available on Boyles, I hadn't checked. A brilliant price.

    Have also gone with Gus to win, 3.4 available. I think that's crazy again. Their first fight was 48–47, 48–47, 49–46, no reason to think it won't be similar. I could see Gus outpointing him. Prices should be a lot closer.

    agree with you on gus also, it's a price I'm finding too hard to resist.

    You are right in that there is no reason to think it won't be similiar but in this
    case for me I might just have a small bet on gus pts simply because it would be like I clicked on a nice bet if he won I want it to happen sooo badly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I like these three myself

    latifi by ko 17/10 has big power and if he connects early with anderson I think he could finish him, for me he needs to get it done in the first 7/8mins

    zingano pts 6/4 opposing the other anderson here who I don't rate but she is pretty tough, both have only been finished once (by sub)

    chiesa sub 19/10 It's like this...if condit shows up in the same form as he did v magny or oliveira he will be subbed imo.
    Chiesa has 10 sub wins/4 pts wins/no ko wins...if condit does return to his previous self then he could take chiesa apart but you can't back him on his
    last two performances.


    tempted by aa also and siyar also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭d00mk1n


    Taking Montel “Quik” Jackson to KO Brian Kelleher

    10/3 with Paddy Power

    Lost his last fight but has never been finished in his short career.

    Looked good on Dana’s Tuesday Night Contenders Series & missed weight for this fight. Statistically that gives you a better win %(minor I know)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 106 ✭✭sojustrutz


    Anyone any fancies for fights NTGTD? I’m thinking about mendes/volks but want a couple of others for an acca.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Odds are completely tumbling on Cyborg tonight. Can't understand. She's available at 1/2 now, max bet for me
    Can't see how Nunes beats her


  • Registered Users Posts: 282 ✭✭Bubblegummers


    dulux99 wrote: »
    Odds are completely tumbling on Cyborg tonight. Can't understand. She's available at 1/2 now, max bet for me
    Can't see how Nunes beats her

    4/7 at bet365


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    4/7 at bet365

    F*CK me for not checking. Already backed with powers. Ah well


  • Registered Users Posts: 925 ✭✭✭rekluse


    Anyone any fancies for tonight ? Mailburner ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Well 2018 was undoubtedly my worst ever year gambling on MMA. It was my speciality once upon a time! 2019 is a new year though. Going to do some study this afternoon and will post my bets later.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    TJ by KO
    Hardy by KO
    Gillespie by Dec
    Henandez Win

    20/1 or so


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I was gonna put my max be on tj when he was 8/15 or so but I fancy hernandez to wipe the floor with cerrone just as much

    double pays 5/4 and I'm far too confident


    am also gonna do the ko double which comes in a slightly under 7/1, odds which I really like

    I've a feeling hernandez will go after cerrone and put a lot of pressure on him early, won't give him a chance to settle and get a ko possibly
    hernandez for me has the potential to go to the very top and for me outside of adesanya who looks like a future champ, I think he'll be fighting for a belt in under two years.

    I think if cejudo fought mighty mouse ten times he's lose 9 of them, he had his night and I think he'll be exposed later as a champ that just had one really good night fighting for me the most talented champ in the ufc


    I think theres a couple of fights jumping off the page at me to go the distance also which are pvz v ostovich and benvi ortiz


    not seeing many outsider but I like rencountre, took so many bombs again belal last time out, his chin amazed me
    I don't know his opponent well enough to be confident of his chances though but a pts win at 10/3 appeals if he gets it done as his striking could be better and should be better than last time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    Well hard and fast is the way to beat Cowboy, but if I saw him in the dressing room sweating hard then the current odds make a tempting bet. I could see Donald survive the first, then win by head kick in the second. I am so undecided on this I am going to put a small bet on Cowboy (as the odds are good), even though I think he might be overwhelmed in the first.

    PVZ, much as I think she is over rated, has my bet to win by TKO in the 3rd, Ostovich seems weak defending kicks and knees.

    TJ was going to be my big bet but the odds are so poor I have again gone small.

    The rest of the card I really cant make my mind up on, so no bets.

    SB


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,739 ✭✭✭ASOT


    Went with an accumulator of

    Badou Jack in the boxing
    Benavidez
    PVZ
    Hardy
    Cejudo

    20 on for 300 back.


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭d00mk1n


    Vinicius by sub is 7/2 in this next fight...

    Never seen him but stats make it look doable


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    Called that one spot on...

    Lets hope the other bets go as well !!

    SB


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭simongurnick


    SlowBlowin wrote: »
    Called that one spot on...

    Lets hope the other bets go as well !!

    SB

    good call.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,839 ✭✭✭✭callaway92


    Generally, when do people find sportsbooks put up a 'win by method' market?

    Looking at the Rani Yahya vs Ricky Simon fight on oddschecker nobody has the market up yet.

    Wanna hop on Yahya by sub.


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 11,139 Mod ✭✭✭✭Mr. Manager


    For lower profile fighters I've usually found them to be posted a few days out


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Went aldo pts at 12/5 pp. Much smaller elsewhere

    Also went for
    Walker ko
    Maia sub
    Oliveira sub
    Aldo pts
    Moraes pts
    4folds/accum
    Look obvious on paper to me but rarely works out that way


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,925 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    is adesanya to win on pts at 13/5 way too big?

    silva has gone the distance in his last four v brunson, cormier, bisping and diaz

    I see both of them doing a lot of dancing and sweet feck all else here and think there'll be too much respect shown by adesanya, lots of fancy moves and a comfortable pts win is what I think he'll be happy with...odds on for the ko just way too short for me.
    I see a lot of booing early one tbh.


    I've said before here ishihara for me is the worst fighter on the roster and his opponent has 10 subs wins in his 14 wins so at around 12/5 I'll have to have a small bet

    Rani yahya is underdog in some lists which surprises me (evens) although saying that he's 9/4 to win by sub when 20 of his 26 wins have been by sub.

    singles/trixie on that lot (32/1 ladb/coral)

    small treble on them all just to win also at 2/1


    not sure of main event, maybe whittaker but you cant rule out gastelum with his iron chin and quick hands though saying that this will seem a bit easier than facing romero
    It's a long time since whittaker won by sub and surely theres a chance at some stage he takes gastelum down?
    Souza and especially weidman wanted nothing to do with gastelum standing and whilst souza failed to keep gastelum down weidman did get the job done.

    He has five sub wins so for me the 20/1 by pp for whittaker to win by sub might well be worth a few euro when there's plenty as short as 12/1 for same.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭dulux99


    Jim Crute 4/6 looks a banker to me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,603 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    mailburner wrote: »
    is adesanya to win on pts at 13/5 way too big?

    silva has gone the distance in his last four v brunson, cormier, bisping and diaz

    I see both of them doing a lot of dancing and sweet feck all else here and think there'll be too much respect shown by adesanya, lots of fancy moves and a comfortable pts win is what I think he'll be happy with...odds on for the ko just way too short for me.
    I see a lot of booing early one tbh.

    I can see it going distance too.
    Went with that bet too.

    Also had Bobby by sub, think it was a great bet


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,891 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    I have Stylebender win by TKO, I find it hard to believe at 44 Silva will stand the pace.


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