Further Cold Spell In February? 0-180 Charts Only

It will be back next run

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Posted by GP over on Netweather today.

I don't read netweather forum but I gather from reading this one that 'GP' is considered to be a bit of a meteorological demigod, and perhaps with good reason. But having said that, I just don't get that same 'warm glow' from reading his posts on here as I do when reading the just as informed and considered posts from our own group of experts here on this weather forum. I am pretty sure no posts from here get quoted from on Netweather, so I don't see why we should quote posts from theirs.


This is not an attack on you Musicman, just speaking in general. Nor is it an attack on Netweather. (they do have a nice selection of charts! )

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

To me I don't care where the info comes from as long as its detailed and well explained, I mean the same could be said for people posting up info from Matt hugo and the likes.

The value of the information is extremely compromised by the veracity of the models though.
When they are shakey past 72hrs,we may aswell be discussing scrabble as to get a true picture of what is going on.
I find a lot of the model discussion on NW to be imby in the extreme, home counties England centric.

Information on there too can be misleading eg this mornings tete a tetes on faux cold with people claiming theres no such thing...
Faux cold is exactly that,it's normal winter frost that hasn't shifted.A few gusts of wind and it's gone.It's not terribly exciting.

Another problem with NW discussions on models,true of here too and the whole weather fora internet world is,you can't talk about bad signs for cold ie that mild might win without many is the time being leaped on.
In my humble opinion posts like that are in laa land.


But anyhow back to model substance.Big changes towards a mild evolution today which explains yesterdays met office update which I got criticized for posting on the other thread....because people didn't want to hear bad news..
Well I'm afraid,today is a bad news models day if you like snow.
In the neartime suggestions are for the cold to continue to only flirt with SE England but in the main to keep heading towards france.

All academic really as particulars beyond 72hrs are hard to nail down.
The probability ensemble wise though has definitely swung towards a milder evolution for whatever thats worth.
Thats the more likely outcome regardless anyway with a still active atlantic and a weaker or not getting any stronger cold system too far to our east.
They did battle at the weekend and we got mild.
Says it all really.
We might get a colder period alright but as I was thinking last night and still am, a dry colder period.
Looks potentially brief now too.

It could all change tomorrow.
But it just shows you that no matter how bullish people are about cold,snow,blocking,greenie highs etc,it's all just a discussion about NWP output thats often wrong anyway so thats why we should all be sceptical of those[including me btw] that exclaim certainty at anytime about something more severe reaching our shores unless it contains the things mentioned below.

They should know better and so should we.

Apologies about the pessimism today but it's the truth.

I mean lol,it's "all about the trends" in FI.
Yesterday they were coldish,today they are not so coldish,if that continues then all we are getting is our normal weather ahead really and trends towards cold were empty numerical mistakes really.
We will have learned nothing if we continue to rely on signals picked up here mar dhea and trends there etc etc
The lesson to learn is and I say this with a pinch of salt,that a siberian high is too far away to influence Ireland too much and a scandi high is only good if it's over northern scandinavia.

Oh and showers don't form too well at 1030 mb and above pressure,thats something that was said at the start of this "spell".

Yours in despondence,

Blackius

I am not saying theres no point in discussing the models.
I'm just saying we should recognise that they are often erroneous and we'd be better off discussing them in the main theoretically past 96hrs or 120hrs rather than taking the kind of faith that we sometimes fall fowl of taking in them

blackius wrote: »

The lesson to learn is and I say this with a pinch of salt,that a siberian high is too far away to influence Ireland too much and a scandi high is only good if it's over northern scandinavia.

Have to disagree a little there. It all depends of course on the broader set up but some of the most brutal weather in Ireland during the 1963 winter for example occurred when the Scandinavian High was centered over Southern Scandinavia.

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Have to disagree a little there. It all depends of course on the broader set up but some of the most brutal weather in Ireland during the 1963 winter for example occurred when the Scandinavian High was centered over Southern Scandinavia.

Well I suppose it does depend on the angle of the dangle....
My point was supposed to mean,if you have Easterlies,they are useless if they are slack like we've had because pressure is too high.
Have a spoiler high to our southwest and it's a disaster,we've seen that.

I think fog may be more of a headline this week, with plenty of moisture trapped under the inversion and slack winds. Should be a lot of low stratus/stratocumulus, so nights may not be as cold as people are thinking. The odd ground frost maybe, but I would say the majority of stations will not fall below 0 °C.

This morning's ECMWF seems to have some support from its ensembles for higher geos to be forced northwards towards more Arctic regions around the start of next week:



helping to increase the chance of blocking high to our west or northwest though this seems to be a wobble in an otherwise consistent ensemble mean over the last few weeks. Still, something to keep an eye on - for better or worse.

Things are continuing as I thought they would. We have the strong poleward flow over Alaska, with the large NE Canadian trough retreating back westwards to allow the Azores high to build northwestards. They poleward flow towards Alaska looks like it may not build the Greenland high for long, though, and with zonality looking like increasing from eastern Asia to North America, some energy looks like setting up a progressive pattern again for much of the globe. The high to our west will probably be short-lived, with the NAO turing postitive again for the last decade of the month. So if we don't get something from next week's northerly (which seems increasingly like missing us to the east) then we could be looking at westerlies again for the rest of the month.