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14-11-2020, 13:22   #16
Gaoth Laidir
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We have the first storm of the Southern hemisphere season, with Alicia forming in the southern Indian Ocean. Currently 45 knots, it will probably reach about Cat 1 but stay well away from Mauritius.



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16-11-2020, 20:30   #17
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ALICIA is starting to weaken quickly. After reaching the stage of Tropical Cyclone, here it is again a Strong Tropical Storm. And according to forecasts, this system will continue to weaken for the next few hours.
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22-11-2020, 17:40   #18
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TC Gani made landfall along the east coast of Somalia this afternoon. It intensified 50 knots in 6 hours overnight, reaching its maximum intensity of 100 knots before landfall.

It's the 3rd storm in the north Indian Ocean this year, where the average at this point is 4.0. This basin has two seasons per year, one in May-June and the second now, Nov-December.




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24-11-2020, 21:43   #19
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The active Atlantic period this month and now Indian Ocean has been due to a strong MJO passing eastwards from Phase 8 to now Phase 3 (eastern Indian Ocean). A second tropical cyclone (Nivar) is currently just northeast of Sri Lanka and heading westwards towards SE India, making landfall as about Cat 1 on Thursday.

Otherwise it's very quiet around the globe.



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07-12-2020, 20:32   #20
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MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 3 (BONGOYO)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km / h.
Maximum estimated gusts at sea: 100 km / h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 994 hPa.
Position on December 07 at 10 p.m. local: 15.4 South / 79.9 East.

Bongoyo will is unlikely to intensify into a major cyclone.

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22-12-2020, 19:07   #21
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The Disturbed Zone, the 4th low pressure system of the 2020-2021 hurricane season, was taken over by the C.M.R.S. this afternoon (Sunday 20) ...
It should take a trajectory oriented globally to the west under the influence of the anticyclone (marked by a blue A) which will develop south of the Mascarenes ...

The Disturbed Zone n ° 4 was moving at 4:00 p.m. (Sunday 20th) towards the southeast at a speed of 7 km / h and was positioned around point 12.6 South / 65.5 East 1390 km northeast of the Reunion coast. .
The pressure in its center was estimated at 1008 hPa and the average maximum wind speed over 10 minutes was around 37 km / h with sea gusts of 52 km / h ...

The Disturbed Zone apprehended by the numerical forecast models that in recent days has intensified very very slightly with more or less active and not very organized cloud masses ...

The two numerical forecasting models (ECMWF and GFS) which have become less bad over time, are slowly starting to tune their violins ...
The general trend they give is a trajectory as defined above and a very very very slow intensification ...

At this time and as the holidays are approaching, it seems that this system could eventually concern the Malagasy lands ...

This hypothesis is a little cheeky but it is rare to see the C.M.R.S. specify at the end of his bulletin on Sunday December 20, 2020 at 4:00 p.m.:
BECAUSE OF ITS INTENSITY, THIS WEATHER DOES NOT AT THE TIME PRESENT A THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS WITHIN 5 DAYS BUT ITS PROXIMITY REQUIRES SPECIAL FOLLOW-UP, JUSTIFYING THE EARLY ELABORATION OF THESE BULLETINS.

As far back as I can go, I have never seen the C.M.R.S. write that kind of thing ...
On the other hand, they have already taken charge of systems early on when they could eventually concern inhabited land BUT without ever writing it down ...

It therefore seems important to me that the inhabitants of the Mascarene Islands keep an even distracted eye on the evolution of this system and that our Malagasy friends living in a large area north of their island do the same with a little more interest ...
Last hours:
The Disturbed Zone continued its course towards the west-southwest, still supported by the high pressure which swells south of the Mascarenes ...

The forecasts of the numerical forecasting models are more and more in phase to see this system finish its course on the east coast of Madagascar but the way to get there is very different ...
And as a start of explanation for this difference, we can notice that their analyzes of the initial position of the system diverge somewhat ... example with ECMWF and GFS

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04-01-2021, 20:34   #22
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Forth Cyclone of the season Danilo in the south Indian Ocean basin
Moderate Tropical Storm DANILO: Monday January 04, 2021, 20:00

DANILO has intensified slightly over the past 05 hours but remains a Moderate Tropical Storm.

Moderate Tropical Storm DANILO

☑️Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km / h.
☑️Maximum estimated gusts at sea: 120 km / h.
☑️Estimated pressure at the center: 990 hPa.
☑️ Position on January 04 at 10 p.m. local: 15.5 South / 77.0 East.
☑️Distance from Mauritius: About 2090 km to the North-East
☑️Distance from Rodrigues: About 1500 km to the North-East
☑️ Travel: East-South-East, 11 km / hr.

Forecasts:

The system should gradually descend to the south from tomorrow. DANILO should then curve towards the west-southwest and west from Wednesday 06 January to gradually approach the Mascarenes and intensify.

Intensity forecasts:

The system is evolving under conditions favorable to maintaining its current intensity. Nevertheless, a temporary intensification in Severe Tropical Storm is not ruled out. Beyond this Wednesday, temporary weakening is possible before strength resumes from Thursday evening with surrounding conditions improving.

Cyclonic Danger:

DANILO represents a POTENTIAL cyclonic danger for Rodrigues from Thursday 07 January and for Mauritius from Friday 08 January 2021.

Potential cyclone alert for Rodrigues from January 07. Potential cyclone alert for Mauritius from January 08. These estimates are only my opinion.

DANILO is a system to be followed very closely for Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion Island because this system could represent a POTENTIAL threat.


Last edited by YanSno; 04-01-2021 at 20:39.
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