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Dublin mid west election 2020

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135

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    #62
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,178 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Ward is technically a sitting TD so they kinda hate to put him on the ballot. O Brion will likely top the poll so even if Ward doesn’t get in, there’s no harm done


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    #63
    Hotblack Desiato
    Registered Users Posts: 34,060 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Got about the third or fourth Curran leaflet of this campaign through the door earlier today. Then about 11pm got another one! Seems a bit desperate. Hope to see him kicked out for good this time

    Fingal County Council are certainly not competent to be making decisions about the most important piece of infrastructure on the island. They need to stick to badly designed cycle lanes and deciding on whether Mrs Murphy can have her kitchen extension.



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    #64
    ShyMets
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭ShyMets


    Hotblack Desiato wrote: »
    Got about the third or fourth Curran leaflet of this campaign through the door earlier today. Then about 11pm got another one! Seems a bit desperate. Hope to see him kicked out for good this time

    I think Curran will be alright. He's anti-abortion and fairly vocal about so he'll get some of that vote plus the traditional FF vote. I think Gino Kenny might be in a bit of bother


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    #65
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    ShyMets wrote: »
    I think Curran will be alright. He's anti-abortion and fairly vocal about so he'll get some of that vote plus the traditional FF vote. I think Gino Kenny might be in a bit of bother

    He will lose a lot of voters over that also


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    #66
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    alias no.9 wrote: »
    If Ward can get ahead of Gino, he could well keep his seat, there's a seat for one of them.

    That would be the worst possible outcome for SF. O'Broin is one of the "sensible ones" that attract new/non-traditional votes to the party elsewhere along with Doherty. They're already losing Jonathan O'Brien who was another.


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    #67
    Hotblack Desiato
    Registered Users Posts: 34,060 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Pretty sure alias meant there's a seat for one of Kenny or Ward, not that there's a seat for one of the two SF candidates

    I expect O'Broin to top the poll, unless SF make a complete balls of their vote management.

    Fingal County Council are certainly not competent to be making decisions about the most important piece of infrastructure on the island. They need to stick to badly designed cycle lanes and deciding on whether Mrs Murphy can have her kitchen extension.



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    #68
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,178 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    ShyMets wrote: »
    I think Curran will be alright. He's anti-abortion and fairly vocal about so he'll get some of that vote plus the traditional FF vote. I think Gino Kenny might be in a bit of bother

    The traditional FF vote would probably be along that anti-choice line anyway. He wouldn’t be attracting too many new voters because of it

    There is zero chance of O Broin not being elected


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    #69
    ShyMets
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭ShyMets


    Neck on the line time. I think it will finish up:

    O'Broin
    Curran
    Ward
    Higgins


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    #70
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    The bookies have it

    Curran 1/50
    O'Brioin 1/14
    Ward 3/10
    Higgins 4/6
    Gogarty 7/4
    Gino 7/4

    7-1 bar those

    An actual interesting count in DMW for a change this time


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    #71
    Nika Bolokov
    Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Nika Bolokov


    Fairly brisk voting when I was voting this morning with lots of young voters.

    Think the bookies have overestimated Currans vote and underestimated the Green vote.


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    #72
    Pherekydes
    Registered Users Posts: 16,115 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    Nika Bolokov wrote: »
    Think the bookies have overestimated Currans vote and underestimated the Green vote.

    The bookies' odds just reflect the market.


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    #73
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    I had to queue for the first time ever at my polling station this morning.


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    #74
    Nika Bolokov
    Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Nika Bolokov


    Pherekydes wrote: »
    The bookies' odds just reflect the market.

    Yeah I note they have pulled constituency betting completly.


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    #75
    Nika Bolokov
    Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Nika Bolokov


    Vivian Ashy Attic wrote: »
    I had to queue for the first time ever at my polling station this morning.

    Big young vote when I was there. Usually I only see the plus 40s but that could just be when and where I vote


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    #76
    Mongfinder General
    Registered Users Posts: 1,992 ✭✭✭Mongfinder General


    Vivian Ashy Attic wrote: »
    I had to queue for the first time ever at my polling station this morning.

    That could be the Saturday effect. Voting numbers could fall off a cliff after 6 pm. If the numbers keep up we could be looking at above 70% turnout


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    #77
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    I was out early and it was definitely the usual age group asexpected. Perhaps to early for the twentysomethings at 9am :-)


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    #78
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Hope the downturn in the weather now after a super morning doesn't dent the turnout too much.


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    #79
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 28,201 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Sir Oxman wrote: »
    Hope the downturn in the weather now after a super morning doesn't dent the turnout too much.

    I'd say anyone paying attention to the weather, or the rugby, would have planned to vote early.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #80
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,178 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    The usual busy times for votes is after work and even the late evening. Can’t see the Saturday hours having that late rush


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    #81
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,820 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Dodge wrote: »
    The usual busy times for votes is after work and even the late evening. Can’t see the Saturday hours having that late rush
    When's mass over ?


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    #82
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Eoin O Broin SF Dub MW is frantically tweeting about the reported tailing off of voters in DMW.
    Looks like it won't be even 60% final turnout if current trend keeps up.
    Mind you it was 50 something % last time, way below national turnout.


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    #83
    Zetor19
    Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭Zetor19


    There is no excuse for a low turn out , you would think the polling booths were out in middle of the street or something with people using the weather as an excuse .


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    #84
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    Sir Oxman wrote: »
    Eoin O Broin SF Dub MW is frantically tweeting about the reported tailing off of voters in DMW.
    Looks like it won't be even 60% final turnout if current trend keeps up.
    Mind you it was 50 something % last time, way below national turnout.

    Im guessing a lower turn out hits the shinners chances of getting 2 elected. I think this will be interesting. Transfers will be fascinating.

    Obrien and Curran should be ok I reckon but we may see surprises after that.....


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    #85
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    brick tamland wrote: »
    Im guessing a lower turn out hits the shinners chances of getting 2 elected. I think this will be interesting. Transfers will be fascinating.

    Obrien and Curran should be ok I reckon but we may see surprises after that.....


    yeah, interesting day ahead tomorrow.


    I juts checked (and someone else corrected me elsewhere)
    2016 turnout was 62.8%


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    #86
    Borgo
    Registered Users Posts: 119 ✭✭Borgo


    Ó Broin and Ward are looking very comfortable. Delighted. That is some going to do that.


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    #87
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    Borgo wrote: »
    Ó Broin and Ward are looking very comfortable. Delighted. That is some going to do that.

    I thought they'd take two seats, the manner is astounding though! First two across the line by a comfortable margin. Transfers important but Curran and Higgins or Casserly is my shout. Gino still in the shake but transfers will be impossible to call really in this


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    #88
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Looks like SF have done it in Dublin MW (vote management) to retain 2 - 92/110 boxes
    SF 42.5%
    FG 16.7% <--Casserly not Higgins leading here
    FF 12.1%
    PBP 7.9%

    Really good vote management

    O Broin 8400
    Ward 6600


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    #89
    Nika Bolokov
    Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Nika Bolokov


    Hard to know who's going to transfer to Curran.

    Looks like too many FG candidates.

    Gino still in the mix , wild transfers could even sneak Kavanagh in if he can nose ahead of either FG even Gogarty that 4th seat is a lottery


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    #90
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSFqox2ALaYO10PDeWz4DOc6BIey8je1VBMtdO0gcHbmcb9k5DoWnkdH7j7LS9xGX3CFfWwAMGYqCq_/pubhtml?gid=335042753&single=true

    This is the tally spreadsheet. All boxes counted.


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    #91
    Borgo
    Registered Users Posts: 119 ✭✭Borgo


    duffman13 wrote: »
    I thought they'd take two seats, the manner is astounding though! First two across the line by a comfortable margin. Transfers important but Curran and Higgins or Casserly is my shout. Gino still in the shake but transfers will be impossible to call really in this

    Yeah I thought they would aswell but the manner is something else alright. Ivan Yates on his podcast last week for this area said it was nearly impossible for Sinn Féin to do this and laughed it off really. But there ye go 😉


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