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Saturday 5th January

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    #32
    Kauto
    Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Kauto


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    Laurina has had multiple entries to take on Champion Hurdle contenders but yet swerved them all to run that joke of a mares race. I don't think what the connections have done is accidental at all. I think it will run over 2m4 like it did today in the mares race at Cheltenham.

    No they haven't done it accidentally. She hasn't run to date became of the ground. Why would they risk her on it this early in the season. She will be running on decent ground in Cheltenham so time enough.
    They think she is an absolute monster and in a poor champion hurdle she will lead home a WP forecast.


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    #33
    Gringo180
    Registered Users Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    Looks like she needs it soft. Will she get that at the festival?

    She will go the mares imo. Otherwise they would be testing her in top races before March.


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    #34
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    They'll have a fair idea of how she'd go against Melon, Sharjah et al and someones backed her to the extent she's extremely short based on anything done on track.
    I suppose the decision for them is 7 lbs off Beuver D'air and the rest or levels v Apples Jade?

    How many proper tests in open company did Annie Power get before her CH? World Hurdle?


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    #35
    Gringo180
    Registered Users Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    They'll have a fair idea of how she'd go against Melon, Sharjah et al and someones backed her to the extent she's extremely short based on anything done on track.
    I suppose the decision for them is 7 lbs off Beuver D'air and the rest or levels v Apples Jade?

    How many proper tests in open company did Annie Power get before her CH? World Hurdle?

    Certainly more than Laurina. Beat Zarkandar a couple of times on the snaff and had course form on good ground and went off around 3/1 in a weak enough Champ Hurdle. Laurina is nearly that price now and facing a 2 time champion in his prime and has never run on decent ground.


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    #36
    Kauto
    Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Kauto


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    Looks like she needs it soft. Will she get that at the festival?

    She will go the mares imo. Otherwise they would be testing her in top races before March.

    She doesn't need it soft but why risk her on it before you have to?

    They know exactly what they have, so why bottom her out before the big day. WPM a genius. Owner wants the CH and that is where she will run.


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    #37
    Kauto
    Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Kauto


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    Certainly more than Laurina. Beat Zarkandar a couple of times on the snaff and had course form on good ground and went off around 3/1 in a weak enough Champ Hurdle. Laurina is nearly that price now and facing a 2 time champion in his prime and has never run on decent ground.

    Well they think she is a fair bit better than Melon who was just beaten in the CH last year. Winner alright, winner alright


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    #38
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    I just can't keep my mouth shut on this Laurina waffle any longer. The 4-1 currently on offer is a crap price. Who has she ever beat in open company? All of her form is on soft or heavier ground. This nonsense needs to stop. Anyone who thinks 4-1 is value needs their head examined.


    If she turns out to be as good as she is I am delighted for her and her connections. As it stands she is rated 152. This is the same rating as any of the current leading novice hurdlers. How many of those are 4-1 for the champion hurdle?


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    #39
    paddyisreal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    I just can't keep my mouth shut on this Laurina waffle any longer. The 4-1 currently on offer is a crap price. Who has she ever beat in open company? All of her form is on soft or heavier ground. This nonsense needs to stop. Anyone who thinks 4-1 is value needs their head examined.


    If she turns out to be as good as she is I am delighted for her and her connections. As it stands she is rated 152. This is the same rating as any of the current leading novice hurdlers. How many of those are 4-1 for the champion hurdle?

    1000 percent agree with the above, bvd is rated 169 and she gets the allowance. Still has loads to find but at 4s its a crazy price.


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    #40
    Panrich
    Registered Users Posts: 3,776 ✭✭✭Panrich


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    I just can't keep my mouth shut on this Laurina waffle any longer. The 4-1 currently on offer is a crap price. Who has she ever beat in open company? All of her form is on soft or heavier ground. This nonsense needs to stop. Anyone who thinks 4-1 is value needs their head examined.


    If she turns out to be as good as she is I am delighted for her and her connections. As it stands she is rated 152. This is the same rating as any of the current leading novice hurdlers. How many of those are 4-1 for the champion hurdle?

    Sounds like a good lay opportunity for you if you feel that strongly.

    The what has she beaten argument is a bit bogus as Buveur Dair could hardly have been more decisive than she has been in dispatching very inferior opponents. She’s beaten everything she’s faced on the snaff.

    You are right though in that she hasn’t been tested and might well fall short of what’s required when upped against the very best. I saw someone post that she’d need to improve a stone to challenge Apples Jade. The problem with that argument is that we don’t know her current ability and the handicapper doesn’t either. What we can say is that it’s north of 152. How far north is conjecture.

    The weight of money must tell something about the regard that she is held in by Willie and co. It’s not all mug punters money that has her where she is in the betting.


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    #41
    Gringo180
    Registered Users Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    Kauto wrote: »
    She doesn't need it soft but why risk her on it before you have to?

    They know exactly what they have, so why bottom her out before the big day. WPM a genius. Owner wants the CH and that is where she will run.

    All her form is on a bog. How do you know she will handle decent ground?


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    #42
    Panrich
    Registered Users Posts: 3,776 ✭✭✭Panrich


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    All her form is on a bog. How do you know she will handle decent ground?

    That certainly is a question mark. None of her sires progeny have ever won a race in Ire/UK on ground with good in the description from very few opportunities admittedly.


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    #43
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    ground wont be good on day 1 lads, that's a given
    twill we watered to death if no rain
    ground wont be an issue
    good to soft at absolute best
    anything with soft in the name and with a race already run on it will be fine for her


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    #44
    The Mig
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    They know what they have in Closutton lads. Doesn’t matter what she’s done or how she has looked. Bigger engine than Annie is what I’ve heard


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    #45
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    The Mig wrote: »
    They know what they have in Closutton lads. Doesn’t matter what she’s done or how she has looked. Bigger engine than Annie is what I’ve heard

    They regularly don't know. If it was that straightforward they stable lads would be driving Lambos.

    They'll know when we know on the 12th.


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    #46
    Earendil
    Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭Earendil


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    They regularly don't know. If it was that straightforward they stable lads would be driving Lambos.

    They'll know when we know on the 12th.

    That doesn’t make sense.
    In general you can get an idea in a big yard by how a horse runs in its work against graded animals.


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    #47
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    Earendil wrote: »
    That doesn’t make sense.
    In general you can get an idea in a big yard by how a horse runs in its work against graded animals.

    Of course, yeah.

    They don't how good a horse is going to be on the track though, i.e. that Laurina will be as good as Annie Power.

    Plenty of horses touted as machines by various yards have not been machines. It's not that simple.


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