Property Market 2018

ElektroToad · 06-11-2018 8:59pm

Sorry if this has come up before but I just saw an article on Irish Times that nearly 400 apartments (that apparently have yet to be even built) in Clongriffin were recently acquired by a UK based investment company for use as rentals.

I've also noticed that several other new apartment schemes around Dublin were also bought outright by such investors before they even went to market.

Surely with the current state of housing there should be some form of restrictions placed on institutional landlords from instantly snapping up what little supply comes to the market for use a rental stock???

For example I don't particular need/want to buy a 3-bed semi-D and feel that a 2-bed apartment would suit my needs perfectly fine. But if this trend continues it seems that I will have no choice but to keep saving for a larger deposit and look for a house at this rate? :rolleyes:

engiweirdo · 06-11-2018 9:33pm

ElektroToad wrote: »

Sorry if this has come up before but I just saw an article on Irish Times that nearly 400 apartments (that apparently have yet to be even built) in Clongriffin were recently acquired by a UK based investment company for use as rentals.

I've also noticed that several other new apartment schemes around Dublin were also bought outright by such investors before they even went to market.

Surely with the current state of housing there should be some form of restrictions placed on institutional landlords from instantly snapping up what little supply comes to the market for use a rental stock???

For example I don't particular need/want to buy a 3-bed semi-D and feel that a 2-bed apartment would suit my needs perfectly fine. But if this trend continues it seems that I will have no choice but to keep saving for a larger deposit and look for a house at this rate? :rolleyes:

But the only way to keep the price of that house rising is to restrict all other avenues of supply and create funnels toward the >€400k and rising 3 bed semis. You think this happens by accident? How's Noonans portfolio doing these days I wonder.

utmbuilder · 07-11-2018 2:08am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i think you re spot on here, we re all slowly turning into japans, something has to change, you d have to wonder what the breaking point will be!

I dont care what happens im not going back to drinking prosecco, its moet all the way or no way.

bri007 · 07-11-2018 9:04am

Moët wow your posh, I thought we were posh drinking cider from a 1.5 litere plastic bottle thinking it was ‘fizzy wine’ LOL ðŸ˜‚

If a recession happens again we will have to water it down to make it last longer!

utmbuilder wrote: »

I dont care what happens im not going back to drinking prosecco, its moet all the way or no way.

Assetbacked · 07-11-2018 3:30pm

bri007 wrote: »

Moët wow your posh, I thought we were posh drinking cider from a 1.5 litere plastic bottle thinking it was ‘fizzy wine’ LOL &#55357;&#56834;

If a recession happens again we will have to water it down to make it last longer!

A recession would be a positive thing for Ireland in the current climate as we have a situation now where wages are not climbing to match rents and utilities. As a result, the situation currently is a struggle for the majority in Ireland. House prices crashing like they did after the last recession would be gorgeous.

07-11-2018 3:35pm

Something is not feeling right. Property in rural areas where I live are now going for outrageous money. It really has the feeling of uncharted territory.
Living in a rural town that is completely decimated, entire streets are in complete state of disrepair, no businesses no employment . Then on the outskirts properties are going for 300,000 and average rent 900 - 1100 in rural Ireland. I don't need to be a professor of whatever, but something is seriously wrong by anyone's standards.

Assetbacked · 07-11-2018 3:55pm

6541 wrote: »

Something is not feeling right. Property in rural areas where I live are now going for outrageous money. It really has the feeling of uncharted territory.
Living in a rural town that is completely decimated, entire streets are in complete state of disrepair, no businesses no employment . Then on the outskirts properties are going for 300,000 and average rent 900 - 1100 in rural Ireland. I don't need to be a professor of whatever, but something is seriously wrong by anyone's standards.

An average of 9,000 houses per year were built the last 7 years. We are told approximately 34,000 houses per year are required between now and 2031. I don't think we are in danger of a crash, I think we are in the depths of the tail-end of the struggle caused by the recession.

07-11-2018 5:12pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

A recession would be a positive thing for Ireland in the current climate as we have a situation now where wages are not climbing to match rents and utilities. As a result, the situation currently is a struggle for the majority in Ireland. House prices crashing like they did after the last recession would be gorgeous.

What a bizarre view to hold. Wages aren't climbing so we need a recession? Unemployment isn't much of an alternative.

Adrian14mz · 07-11-2018 5:34pm

Hi all.
I am living in the Old Bawn, Tallaght area and we are hoping to sell a 3 bed semi. It is slow enough at the moment. We get 4 couples viewing but no offers. The banks are giving people the run around and the Government are tell people not to buy yet. We have seen a big downturn in interest in the area. Is their anyong seeing the same downturn in their areas. Any info welcome.

M.Cribben · 07-11-2018 5:42pm

Adrian14mz wrote: »

Hi all.
I am living in the Old Bawn, Tallaght area and we are hoping to sell a 3 bed semi. It is slow enough at the moment. We get 4 couples viewing but no offers. The banks are giving people the run around and the Government are tell people not to buy yet. We have seen a big downturn in interest in the area. Is their anyong seeing the same downturn in their areas. Any info welcome.

How long has it been on the market? The process can take anywhere from 3-6 months in Dublin, sometimes longer.
Also we're heading into traditionally the slowest time of year for sales. Should be more activity after Christmas.
Another thing - Is it priced too high? The 2 most important factors for buyers are price and location. Check property price register for what similar properties in the area have sold for recently.

Adrian14mz · 07-11-2018 5:47pm

Thanks for your feedback.

Mr.McLovin · 07-11-2018 5:59pm

Adrian14mz wrote: »

Hi all.
I am living in the Old Bawn, Tallaght area and we are hoping to sell a 3 bed semi. It is slow enough at the moment. We get 4 couples viewing but no offers. The banks are giving people the run around and the Government are tell people not to buy yet. We have seen a big downturn in interest in the area. Is their anyong seeing the same downturn in their areas. Any info welcome.

My mother trying to sell her house in Castleknock. Market is flat since the summer. I've talked to two people from area selling and they're saying the same. Two different estate agents have said to me anything going for over 400k is slow in D15 since the start of the year.

That's my experience anyways...

Adrian14mz · 07-11-2018 6:04pm

Thanks for getting back to me. Best of luck with the sale.

ELM327 · 07-11-2018 6:10pm

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

My mother trying to sell her house in Castleknock. Market is flat since the summer. I've talked to two people from area selling and they're saying the same. Two different estate agents have said to me anything going for over 400k is slow in D15 since the start of the year.

That's my experience anyways...

Any couple looking to buy and mortgage at 400k would need a gross combined income of ~€115k under the 3.5 times rule, or €89k if they could get a 4.5 exception.

This is why it's difficult to sell those properties, the landlords are getting out of the investment property market and private buyers can't get mortgages

JDD · 07-11-2018 6:23pm

I do think there will be a pick up in interest from mid-November. That's when banks open their books for 2019 exemptions. They'll give an AIP out now, knowing that'll it'll be more than six weeks before you find a house, go sale agreed and have to apply for your official loan offer letter. So those buyers who may have been looking for an exemption since June/July, and were rejected as the bank had run out of 2018 exemptions, might be going back to the bank/their broker now and getting the process going again. Certainly January will see more of that then depending on what happens with Brexit we might see a tapering off again in May/June.

Assetbacked · 07-11-2018 6:28pm

Lexi Scarce Explosion wrote: »

What a bizarre view to hold. Wages aren't climbing so we need a recession? Unemployment isn't much of an alternative.

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

Adrian14mz · 07-11-2018 6:31pm

Are they still not lending for properties that need renovations. Some people are trying to buy a home that just needs a bit of work done on it but I hear that the banks are turning them away.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 07-11-2018 6:40pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

Because everyone employed in a multinational is from another country? I work in a massive multinational and I'd estimate that at least 90 % of the staff are native Irish.

ELM327 · 07-11-2018 6:41pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Because everyone employed in a multinational is from another country? I work in a massive multinational and I'd estimate that at least 90 % of the staff are native Irish.

I work in a large multinational and most staff by far, at least 70% are not Irish

snotboogie · 07-11-2018 6:55pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

It doesn’t matter than these foreigners spend money in Ireland that supports local businesses and jobs or that the multinationals outsource to local companies or that foreign companies employ hundreds of thousands of Irish people in Ireland because we can always fall back on our booming local industries.... or go back to being the Romania of Western Europe, either way cheaper housing so win, right?

Rew · 07-11-2018 6:55pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

Even if that were true the blast radius would be massive, many small third parties exist to service those multi-nationals.

07-11-2018 6:59pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

What percentage of the working population do you reckon are employed at MNCs and do you think Google are going to be the first to suffer if a recession hits? Did your theory hold up in 2010 etc? I really don't think so.

JDD · 07-11-2018 7:17pm

So, all the foreign workers would return home, which would free up all those apartments for rent and those houses they were buying, which will increase supply. And then they wouldn't be spending all the money they were spending, so all the third party service providers will lay off people too, so that will dampen down demand for good and services.

Except now, with a volatile employment market, none of the banks will give out mortgages. So no one will be able to afford these cheaper houses.

And with all the people out of work, and lesser tax returns, your tax liability will go up. And your employer will see this as a chance to cut your salary or refuse to give you a bonus. So you wouldn't be able to afford a mortgage, or to rent a nicer apartment.

Fabulous plan. I'll keep the Brazilians/Poles/Italians/Nigerians thanks.

Assetbacked · 07-11-2018 11:24pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

Because everyone employed in a multinational is from another country? I work in a massive multinational and I'd estimate that at least 90 % of the staff are native Irish.

Well I know people in Google, Facebook and Smartbox and this is what they have told me so of course it is not entirely accurate to generalise but nonetheless these companies are quite pick and I would assume a decent sample to make a statement that a lot of tech multinationals are very much majority staffed by non-Irish.

JDD wrote: »

So, all the foreign workers would return home, which would free up all those apartments for rent and those houses they were buying, which will increase supply. And then they wouldn't be spending all the money they were spending, so all the third party service providers will lay off people too, so that will dampen down demand for good and services.

Except now, with a volatile employment market, none of the banks will give out mortgages. So no one will be able to afford these cheaper houses.

And with all the people out of work, and lesser tax returns, your tax liability will go up. And your employer will see this as a chance to cut your salary or refuse to give you a bonus. So you wouldn't be able to afford a mortgage, or to rent a nicer apartment.

Fabulous plan. I'll keep the Brazilians/Poles/Italians/Nigerians thanks.

We are not in a strong econimic position right now, the economy is at breaking point with the housing crisis and cost of utilities destroying salaries for workers. It is not sustainable for net salaries to get lower each year (and that includes paltry tax cuts). A correction is required to put the brakes on the unsustainable hammering of workers which is happening in Ireland.

Assetbacked wrote: »

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

Because everyone employed in a multinational is from another country? I work in a massive multinational and I'd estimate that at least 90 % of the staff are native Irish.

Well I know people in Google, Facebook and Smartbox and this is what they have told me so of course it is not entirely accurate to generalise but nonetheless these companies are quite pick and I would assume a decent sample to make a statement that a lot of tech multinationals are very much majority staffed by non-Irish.

JDD wrote: »

So, all the foreign workers would return home, which would free up all those apartments for rent and those houses they were buying, which will increase supply. And then they wouldn't be spending all the money they were spending, so all the third party service providers will lay off people too, so that will dampen down demand for good and services.

Except now, with a volatile employment market, none of the banks will give out mortgages. So no one will be able to afford these cheaper houses.

And with all the people out of work, and lesser tax returns, your tax liability will go up. And your employer will see this as a chance to cut your salary or refuse to give you a bonus. So you wouldn't be able to afford a mortgage, or to rent a nicer apartment.

Fabulous plan. I'll keep the Brazilians/Poles/Italians/Nigerians thanks.

We are not in a strong econimic position right now, the economy is at breaking point with the housing crisis and cost of utilities destroying salaries for workers. It is not sustainable for net salaries to get lower each year (and that includes paltry tax cuts). A correction is required to put the brakes on the unsustainable hammering of workers which is happening in Ireland.

Assetbacked · 07-11-2018 11:25pm

Apologies for the strange way those posts appeared - the boards website is struggling to function the past week on mobiles.

07-11-2018 11:47pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Apologies for the strange way those posts appeared - the boards website is struggling to function the past week on mobiles.

Oddly formatted posts are the least of your problems.

Villa05 · 08-11-2018 8:45am

I can see where the desire for a recession is coming from. For many working people there quality of life improved as costs reduced significantly during the last recession most notably rent, fuel and energy eating out etc

The problem with Ireland is that any economic recovery benefits very few people. The gains are eaten up by protected sectors and higher costs passed on to the general public

The result being that economic recovery is negative for a growing significant portion of the Irish public. Mainly working, renting, commuters

RayCun · 08-11-2018 10:09am

Villa05 wrote: »

I can see where the desire for a recession is coming from. For many working people there quality of life improved as costs reduced significantly during the last recession most notably rent, fuel and energy eating out etc

That's the thing. If you still had a good job, then yes, cost of living went down.
If you lost your job, or couldn't get a job, or were stuck in a crappy job, it didn't matter that the cost of living was lower because your income was also lower.

phunkadelic · 08-11-2018 10:13am

It is a fair point about the large tech multinationals employing mostly non-Irish people. I believe Google has less than 15% Irish. Most of the jobs are localisation, marketing and sales related and they require teams for each European language.
I think these companies are having a big impact on house prices indirectly.
They pay so little corporation tax, that they can afford to pay staff extra. These staff are mostly here temporarily, 5 years max. Very few intend to settle in Ireland for good. So they will rent for the full period of time they are here.
Their higher wages mean they can afford the extortionate rents in Dublin.
I'm not blaming 'de fordiners', and I am generalising, but all of the above is true.

Higher rents for everyone means more people want to get out of renting and into buying. More demand for buying for the static low supply = higher prices.

Villa05 · 08-11-2018 10:24am

RayCun wrote:

That's the thing. If you still had a good job, then yes, cost of living went down. If you lost your job, or couldn't get a job, or were stuck in a crappy job, it didn't matter that the cost of living was lower because your income was also lower.

Most of the jobs that were lost in the last recession were probably going anyway,
Bloated construction sector
Legacy multinationals in manufacturing
Bloated public service

RayCun · 08-11-2018 10:34am

Villa05 wrote: »

Most of the jobs that were lost in the last recession were probably going anyway,
Bloated construction sector
Legacy multinationals in manufacturing
Bloated public service

That's just nonsense.

Say 100 people lose their jobs in the construction sector.

That's 100 people who are now on the dole, rather than paying income tax. Which means less money to spend on education, health, transport.

100 people who are spending less on groceries, in the pub, in the bookies, in the chemist, in the barbers, in the cinema, on their cars, on clothes.
That means shops closing, other businesses cutting back, and a ripple effect that continues through the economy.

phunkadelic · 08-11-2018 10:37am

RayCun wrote: »

That's just nonsense.

Say 100 people lose their jobs in the construction sector.

That's 100 people who are now on the dole, rather than paying income tax. Which means less money to spend on education, health, transport.

100 people who are spending less on groceries, in the pub, in the bookies, in the chemist, in the barbers, in the cinema, on their cars, on clothes.
That means shops closing, other businesses cutting back, and a ripple effect that continues through the economy.

Indeed, but for those who don't lose their job, it also means lower house prices, lower rent, lower hotels prices. Less gouging by businesses in general.

Mickiemcfist · 08-11-2018 10:41am

Villa05 wrote: »

Most of the jobs that were lost in the last recession were probably going anyway,
Bloated public service

Did the Government lay off public servants? If so, they didn't do enough of it.

RayCun · 08-11-2018 10:42am

phunkadelic wrote: »

Indeed, but for those who don't lose their job, it also means lower house prices, lower rent, lower hotels prices. Less gouging by businesses in general.

'Gouging' when someone else does it.
'Unfortunately forced to raise prices to deal with higher costs' when you do it.

And yeah, as I said above, if you have a secure, well-paying job (or other fixed income) then you'll be better off when the cost of living falls. The country in general, not so much.

08-11-2018 10:45am

phunkadelic wrote: »

Indeed, but for those who don't lose their job, it also means lower house prices, lower rent, lower hotels prices. Less gouging by businesses in general.

Ah yeah that's grand. God be with the days of a few hundred thousand extra people being jobless so we can save a few bob on a hotel.

phunkadelic · 08-11-2018 10:45am

RayCun wrote: »

'Gouging' when someone else does it.
'Unfortunately forced to raise prices to deal with higher costs' when you do it.

And yeah, as I said above, if you have a secure, well-paying job (or other fixed income) then you'll be better off when the cost of living falls. The country in general, not so much.

Have you seen the latest hotel prices in thie country? You won't get a room in a kippy town at the weekend for less than €150. Dublin is different level again. That is definite gouging.

phunkadelic · 08-11-2018 10:48am

Lexi Scarce Explosion wrote: »

Ah yeah that's grand. God be with the days of a few hundred thousand extra people being jobless so we can save a few bob on a hotel.

It's not just hotels. It's rent (you could haggle a 1bed down in Dublin to €900 in 2011). It's also energy bills, insurance. Everything has been going up astronomically in the so called boom we are experiencing.

RayCun · 08-11-2018 10:49am

phunkadelic wrote: »

Have you seen the latest hotel prices in thie country? You won't get a room in a kippy town at the weekend for less than €150. Dublin is different level again. That is definite gouging.

I don't know what business you're in, but do you make a habit of charging below the market price for what you sell?

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 08-11-2018 10:50am

phunkadelic wrote: »

It's not just hotels. It's rent (you could haggle a 1bed down in Dublin to €900 in 2011). It's also energy bills, insurance. Everything has been going up astronomically in the so called boom we are experiencing.

So get a better job. If the country is booming it should be easy

Mickiemcfist · 08-11-2018 10:52am

I think we can all agree that average wages need to increase at or above the level of inflation, otherwise we have a disproportionate benefit of the boom going to a narrow section of society. However, another recession is certainly the wrong way to go about it.

phunkadelic · 08-11-2018 10:54am

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

So get a better job. If the country is booming it should be easy

I'm personally grand. But wages are static and prices on everything are going in one direction only. Add more indirect taxation and childcare costs to the mix too.

RayCun · 08-11-2018 10:54am

phunkadelic wrote: »

It's not just hotels. It's rent (you could haggle a 1bed down in Dublin to €900 in 2011). It's also energy bills, insurance. Everything has been going up astronomically in the so called boom we are experiencing.

Rent is high because there are a lot of people who want to rent in Dublin.
There are a lot of people who want to rent in Dublin because there are a lot of people working in Dublin.
Same for many other goods. Prices are high because demand is high because people have money because people are working. Prices are also high because the cost of other things has gone up and they feed into the price.
Lots of people working = a boom
I don't know what "so called boom" you're talking about.

(And no, this isn't an unalloyed good thing. More accommodation needs to be built, public transport needs to improve so people can work in the city while living further away, lots of things could be improved)

08-11-2018 11:04am

phunkadelic wrote: »

I'm personally grand. But wages are static and prices on everything are going in one direction only. Add more indirect taxation and childcare costs to the mix too.

What's your source for wages being static?

Edit - and that stuff below about jobs added to the economy being low quality or temporary.

phunkadelic · 08-11-2018 11:07am

RayCun wrote: »

Rent is high because there are a lot of people who want to rent in Dublin.
There are a lot of people who want to rent in Dublin because there are a lot of people working in Dublin.
Same for many other goods. Prices are high because demand is high because people have money because people are working. Prices are also high because the cost of other things has gone up and they feed into the price.
Lots of people working = a boom
I don't know what "so called boom" you're talking about.

(And no, this isn't an unalloyed good thing. More accommodation needs to be built, public transport needs to improve so people can work in the city while living further away, lots of things could be improved)

Indeed I know the basic reasons. When I say 'so called boom', I mean very few are seeing any real positive gains from it.
Employment may be higher but there is a fair amount of government spin and the jobs are often lower quality or temporary insecure jobs.

JDD · 08-11-2018 11:30am

The only secure jobs in a recession are in the public service, and that just means you won't lose your job, but your salary is certainly subject to a pay cut in a recession. Not everyone has a public service job.

Every other sector, be it lawyers, doctors, people in financial services, hairdressers, hospitality, IT, manufacturing, construction, everybody's job is at risk. The knock on mental health effects of losing your job is phenomenal. I actually find someone wishing for a recession as offensive, just so they can have a reasonably priced weekend away or rent an apartment closer to town. You can be sure they kept their job over the past ten years.

I also find it suspicious that they first thing they think of is that the fordiners will go home.

Having said that, the fact that the cost of living is too high as compared to wages is a problem, for sure. And raising wages isn't the solution. We need to look at what the big ticket items are that people have no choice but to pay for i.e. rent, mortgage, childcare and try and get those prices down. That means upping supply as you can't decrease demand. Make inroads into the big ticket items and people will have more money in their pockets.

Pussyhands · 08-11-2018 11:32am

Lexi Scarce Explosion wrote: »

Ah yeah that's grand. God be with the days of a few hundred thousand extra people being jobless so we can save a few bob on a hotel.

You're thinking that every recession is on the level of 2008. 2008 was a once in a generation event.

Pussyhands · 08-11-2018 11:34am

JDD wrote: »

The only secure jobs in a recession are in the public service, and that just means you won't lose your job, but your salary is certainly subject to a pay cut in a recession. Not everyone has a public service job.

Every other sector, be it lawyers, doctors, people in financial services, hairdressers, hospitality, IT, manufacturing, construction, everybody's job is at risk. The knock on mental health effects of losing your job is phenomenal. I actually find someone wishing for a recession as offensive, just so they can have a reasonably priced weekend away or rent an apartment closer to town. You can be sure they kept their job over the past ten years.

I also find it suspicious that they first thing they think of is that the fordiners will go home.

Having said that, the fact that the cost of living is too high as compared to wages is a problem, for sure. And raising wages isn't the solution. We need to look at what the big ticket items are that people have no choice but to pay for i.e. rent, mortgage, childcare and try and get those prices down. That means upping supply as you can't decrease demand. Make inroads into the big ticket items and people will have more money in their pockets.

Even in the great recession we had 86 out of every 100 people working. That's a lot of people.

JDD · 08-11-2018 11:39am

Even in the great recession we had 86 out of every 100 people working. That's a lot of people.

14% unemployment only means 14% on the dole at any one time. How many people got laid off and had to take a lower paying job? Or a job that was farther away from their families? How many emigrated? What is the percentage of people who were out of work at any stage between 2007 and 2015? Higher than 14% I'd wager.

JDD · 08-11-2018 11:43am

The answer isn't a recession.

The answer is moving quickly to prevent sectors of the market becoming overheated. As far as I can see, the only public organisation that have done anything to try and make inroads into that was the Central Bank, and that was against the wishes of the government.

The answer is, unfortunately, government intervention into the private sector. There is literally no other way to avoid the constant boom bust cycle.

RayCun · 08-11-2018 11:56am

Pussyhands wrote: »

Even in the great recession we had 86 out of every 100 people working. That's a lot of people.

The 100 people isn't static. If people retire early, stay in school longer, are out of work with disability, are supported by spouses etc, they aren't counted as part of the workforce. They aren't among the 14 people signing on. But when jobs are available they go out to work.

Property Market 2018

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