November 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 25-10-2013 7:14am #1

1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many (seems to be holding at six) met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. The form will guide you ... on whatever morning the five IMT stations plus Ballyhaise record their coldest 06z (0600h) reading, choose the station out of the six provided, then choose the mildest coastal station from the second list (we've included Johnstown Castle which isn't quite coastal) and finally predict the difference in temperature. An example would be this:

coldest at Mullingar (-5 at 06z which you don't enter)
mildest at Valentia (+8 at 06z which you don't enter)
difference is 13 (which you do enter, box is below the question. On my screen the entry box for this number was a bit difficult to find, the outline is faint, but it's right below the question.

You won't need to predict any actual temperatures, just the difference. You won't need to predict a date. The question will be verified from 06z data, not daily minimum. It's quite probable that this will happen on the same day as the monthly MIN but perhaps not. If the same temperature happens more than once at 06z at IMT stations, the first instance will count. Note also, temperatures at that hour will be round integers (no decimals). Just to clarify, this bonus question is settled from 06z data and not actual minimum values, although there may be little actual difference. The detail that you might want to note is we're looking for a spread between coldest inland and mildest near the coast.

Check my first entry to see if you're getting the hang of it. Then note, the difference is the main scoring item, worth a maximum of 8 points. There's one point for getting each of the stations in play correct, and 2 bonus points over top of those if you get both correct and if you score 7 or 8 on the number, if not, you get one extra point. Anything different here from the form counts as official (I think the form gives a basic guide but doesn't mention the specific scoring rules).

Entry form is here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

The usual penalties apply: deadline is 0300h Sat 2 Nov, 5 pt penalty per half day late after that.

nilhg · 25-10-2013 1:46pm

done

M.T. Cranium · 28-10-2013 10:16pm

b u m

p

Bsal · 28-10-2013 11:47pm

Done.

200motels · 29-10-2013 12:07am

Done

whiteandlight · 29-10-2013 8:16pm

Done though its guesswork/wishful thinking!

Strasser · 29-10-2013 8:18pm

Done

H2UMrsRobinson · 29-10-2013 8:53pm

Done

omicron · 31-10-2013 3:24am

Done

dasa29 · 31-10-2013 3:28am

Done

talkabout · 31-10-2013 10:09am

Done

SeaFields · 31-10-2013 10:31am

Done

kindredspirit · 31-10-2013 10:02pm

Very interesting bonus question. I like it.

DOCARCH · 01-11-2013 7:33am

Done

waterways · 01-11-2013 7:47pm

Done.

Jpmarn · 01-11-2013 8:39pm

Done!

John mac · 01-11-2013 9:48pm

done

Tae laidir · 01-11-2013 10:06pm

Done

delw · 01-11-2013 10:56pm

Done

traecy1 · 01-11-2013 11:57pm

Done

okla · 02-11-2013 12:22am

Done.

Rikand · 02-11-2013 2:42am

done

lostinashford · 02-11-2013 9:19am

Done

Harps · 02-11-2013 11:01am

Done, sorry I'm a bit late

Joe Public · 02-11-2013 1:55pm

Done

rameire · 02-11-2013 4:21pm

done, late again.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2013 12:01am

November forecasts
___________________________

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Temp diff, locations
______________________________________________________________

delw ______________9.0 _ 14.0 _ -1.0 _ 105 _ 095 __ 5 __ Mul,Mal
pauldry ___________ 8.8 _ 17.7 _ -2.9 _ 114 _ 090 _ 15 __ Mul,Val
Joe Public (-5) _____ 8.3 _ 14.9 _ -4.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 9 __ Bal,Val
waterways ________ 8.2 _ 17.4 _ -4.1 _ 124 _ 096 _ 10 __ Mul,Mal
Tae laidir __________8.1 _ 16.2 _ -3.1 _ 113 _ 097 _ 10 __ Bal,Val
Bsal _____________ 8.1 _ 15.0 _ -3.5 _ 135 _ 088 _ 13 __ Oak,Val
nilhg _____________ 8.1 _ 15.0 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 095 __ 9 __ Mul,She
H2UMrsRobinson ___ 8.1 _ 14.2 _ -4.5 _ 078 _ 087 _ 17 __ Sha,She
Jpmarn ___________ 7.9 _ 16.5 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 105 __ 9 __ Oak,Mal
kindredspirit _______ 7.9 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 105 _ 095 __ 9 __ Mul,She
Strasser __________ 7.7 _ 15.1 _ -4.2 _ 110 _ 090 __ 8 __ Cla,Val
mickger844posts ___ 7.7 _ 15.1 _ -3.5 _ 121 _ 090 __ 8 __ Mul,Val
harps ___ (-5) _____ 7.6 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 120 _ 090 _ 11 __ Cas,Val
DOCARCH _________ 7.5 _ 17.6 _ -2.3 _ 110 _ 092 _ 10 __ Cas,Val

Con Sensus _______ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 095 _ 10 __ Mul,Val

M.T. Cranium ______ 7.5 _ 16.3 _ -4.2 _ 095 _ 112 _ 11 __ Mul,Val
okla ______________7.5 _ 16.1 _ -2.8 _ 114 _ 090 _ 12 __ Oak,Val
John mac _________ 7.5 _ 15.8 _ -4.2 _ 104 _ 110 __ 8 __ Oak,She
200 motels ________ 7.5 _ 15.5 _ -2.4 _ 159 _ 075 _ 12 __ Mul,Val
seafields __________ 7.4 _ 16.0 _ -3.5 _ 120 _ 100 __ 8 __ Oak,Val
omicron __________ 7.3 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 9 __ Mul,Mal
rikand ____________7.3 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 100 _ 12 __ Mul,J.C.
talkabout _________ 7.2 _ 15.4 _ -4.9 _ 120 _ 095 _ 10 __ Mul,Val
rameire (-5) _______7.2 _ 14.9 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 089 __ 8 __ Mul,Val
traecy.1 __________ 7.1 _ 15.2 _ -5.6 _ 120 _ 095 _ 13 __ Mul,Val
dasa29 ___________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 090 __ 8 __ Mul,Val
lostinashford (-5) ___6.9 _ 17.2 _ -3.3 _ 101 _ 094 _ 14 __ Oak,She
snowstreams (-35) __6.6 _ 15.0 _ -3.3 _ 120 _ 095 __ 6 ___ Bal,She
dacogawa _________ 6.9 _ 16.1 _ -3.9 _ 132 _ 076 __ 9 __ Bal,Val
musicmental85 _____5.8 _ 18.0 _ -8.0 _ 021 _ 041 _ 21 __ Oak,Val
___________________________________________________

Your bonus temperature difference has been rounded where decimals used, as the values to be used will be integers (from 06z hourly reports on met.ie website).

Here's a table showing all the combinations predicted:

_ cold>>CLA _ MUL _ CAS _ BAL _ OAK _ SHA

mild vv
VAL ___ 1 ___ 9 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 4 ___ 0 ________ 17/28 (61%)
MAL ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ 4/28 (14%)
SHE ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 _________ 5/28 (18%)
J.C. ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 1/28 (4%)

cold TOT 1 ___ 15 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 7 ___ 1
cold % .. 4 ___ 54 __ 7 __ 7 __ 25 ___ 4

I will report on any possible wins each day starting whenever I spot a -2 or lower on the 06z obs (at one of our six candidate stations).

Every cold station got some love, Belmullet and Mace Head had no supporters for mildest at that time. The Mullingar-Valentia couplet was preferred by 32% of the field.

More generally speaking, the field consensus is for a rather mild, wet and dull month (which is what November is anyway, so very mild, very wet and very dull I suppose). This table would be amended if any really late forecasts arrive later today or tomorrow. Current lateness penalty is 20.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2013 7:29am

A number of stations have been at -2 C at various times overnight. So here's how our bonus works out today (probably not the final answer) ...

At 06z, the coldest qualifying station was Oak Park at -1

At 06z, the mildest qualifying station was Malin at 8

difference 9

(Sherkin was off-line but probably not as mild as 8, Val and Roches Pt were 5)

So far then, the leading entry is 9 Oak/Mal (which is what Jpmarn has entered).

snowstreams · 04-11-2013 5:16pm

I take it Im far too late now to enter this month?
I was away without internet access and totally forgot!

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2013 7:26pm

You can enter for fun and see what score you would have made, without going back and looking at the tables, I think you had one missed month before so this one couldn't help your annual score much with the 30 points taken off, but ya never know, a perfect forecast would still score 70 which is better than most of us will do. Just enter on the page here so I don't need to check the form, if you want. The bonus answer would also be limited to max of 7 total points.

snowstreams · 05-11-2013 11:39am

Thanks I entered anyway for the fun of it!
Thats some difference in the minima around the country.

November 2013 Boards forecast contest

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