November 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 25-10-2013 7:14am #1

1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many (seems to be holding at six) met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. The form will guide you ... on whatever morning the five IMT stations plus Ballyhaise record their coldest 06z (0600h) reading, choose the station out of the six provided, then choose the mildest coastal station from the second list (we've included Johnstown Castle which isn't quite coastal) and finally predict the difference in temperature. An example would be this:

coldest at Mullingar (-5 at 06z which you don't enter)
mildest at Valentia (+8 at 06z which you don't enter)
difference is 13 (which you do enter, box is below the question. On my screen the entry box for this number was a bit difficult to find, the outline is faint, but it's right below the question.

You won't need to predict any actual temperatures, just the difference. You won't need to predict a date. The question will be verified from 06z data, not daily minimum. It's quite probable that this will happen on the same day as the monthly MIN but perhaps not. If the same temperature happens more than once at 06z at IMT stations, the first instance will count. Note also, temperatures at that hour will be round integers (no decimals). Just to clarify, this bonus question is settled from 06z data and not actual minimum values, although there may be little actual difference. The detail that you might want to note is we're looking for a spread between coldest inland and mildest near the coast.

Check my first entry to see if you're getting the hang of it. Then note, the difference is the main scoring item, worth a maximum of 8 points. There's one point for getting each of the stations in play correct, and 2 bonus points over top of those if you get both correct and if you score 7 or 8 on the number, if not, you get one extra point. Anything different here from the form counts as official (I think the form gives a basic guide but doesn't mention the specific scoring rules).

Entry form is here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

The usual penalties apply: deadline is 0300h Sat 2 Nov, 5 pt penalty per half day late after that.

nilhg · 25-10-2013 1:46pm

done

M.T. Cranium · 28-10-2013 10:16pm

b u m

p

Bsal · 28-10-2013 11:47pm

Done.

200motels · 29-10-2013 12:07am

Done

whiteandlight · 29-10-2013 8:16pm

Done though its guesswork/wishful thinking!

Strasser · 29-10-2013 8:18pm

Done

H2UMrsRobinson · 29-10-2013 8:53pm

Done

omicron · 31-10-2013 3:24am

Done

dasa29 · 31-10-2013 3:28am

Done

talkabout · 31-10-2013 10:09am

Done

SeaFields · 31-10-2013 10:31am

Done

kindredspirit · 31-10-2013 10:02pm

Very interesting bonus question. I like it.

DOCARCH · 01-11-2013 7:33am

Done

waterways · 01-11-2013 7:47pm

Done.

Jpmarn · 01-11-2013 8:39pm

Done!

John mac · 01-11-2013 9:48pm

done

Tae laidir · 01-11-2013 10:06pm

Done

delw · 01-11-2013 10:56pm

Done

traecy1 · 01-11-2013 11:57pm

Done

okla · 02-11-2013 12:22am

Done.

Rikand · 02-11-2013 2:42am

done

lostinashford · 02-11-2013 9:19am

Done

Harps · 02-11-2013 11:01am

Done, sorry I'm a bit late

Joe Public · 02-11-2013 1:55pm

Done

rameire · 02-11-2013 4:21pm

done, late again.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2013 12:01am

November forecasts
___________________________

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Temp diff, locations
______________________________________________________________

delw ______________9.0 _ 14.0 _ -1.0 _ 105 _ 095 __ 5 __ Mul,Mal
pauldry ___________ 8.8 _ 17.7 _ -2.9 _ 114 _ 090 _ 15 __ Mul,Val
Joe Public (-5) _____ 8.3 _ 14.9 _ -4.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 9 __ Bal,Val
waterways ________ 8.2 _ 17.4 _ -4.1 _ 124 _ 096 _ 10 __ Mul,Mal
Tae laidir __________8.1 _ 16.2 _ -3.1 _ 113 _ 097 _ 10 __ Bal,Val
Bsal _____________ 8.1 _ 15.0 _ -3.5 _ 135 _ 088 _ 13 __ Oak,Val
nilhg _____________ 8.1 _ 15.0 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 095 __ 9 __ Mul,She
H2UMrsRobinson ___ 8.1 _ 14.2 _ -4.5 _ 078 _ 087 _ 17 __ Sha,She
Jpmarn ___________ 7.9 _ 16.5 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 105 __ 9 __ Oak,Mal
kindredspirit _______ 7.9 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 105 _ 095 __ 9 __ Mul,She
Strasser __________ 7.7 _ 15.1 _ -4.2 _ 110 _ 090 __ 8 __ Cla,Val
mickger844posts ___ 7.7 _ 15.1 _ -3.5 _ 121 _ 090 __ 8 __ Mul,Val
harps ___ (-5) _____ 7.6 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 120 _ 090 _ 11 __ Cas,Val
DOCARCH _________ 7.5 _ 17.6 _ -2.3 _ 110 _ 092 _ 10 __ Cas,Val

Con Sensus _______ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 095 _ 10 __ Mul,Val

M.T. Cranium ______ 7.5 _ 16.3 _ -4.2 _ 095 _ 112 _ 11 __ Mul,Val
okla ______________7.5 _ 16.1 _ -2.8 _ 114 _ 090 _ 12 __ Oak,Val
John mac _________ 7.5 _ 15.8 _ -4.2 _ 104 _ 110 __ 8 __ Oak,She
200 motels ________ 7.5 _ 15.5 _ -2.4 _ 159 _ 075 _ 12 __ Mul,Val
seafields __________ 7.4 _ 16.0 _ -3.5 _ 120 _ 100 __ 8 __ Oak,Val
omicron __________ 7.3 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 9 __ Mul,Mal
rikand ____________7.3 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 100 _ 12 __ Mul,J.C.
talkabout _________ 7.2 _ 15.4 _ -4.9 _ 120 _ 095 _ 10 __ Mul,Val
rameire (-5) _______7.2 _ 14.9 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 089 __ 8 __ Mul,Val
traecy.1 __________ 7.1 _ 15.2 _ -5.6 _ 120 _ 095 _ 13 __ Mul,Val
dasa29 ___________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 090 __ 8 __ Mul,Val
lostinashford (-5) ___6.9 _ 17.2 _ -3.3 _ 101 _ 094 _ 14 __ Oak,She
snowstreams (-35) __6.6 _ 15.0 _ -3.3 _ 120 _ 095 __ 6 ___ Bal,She
dacogawa _________ 6.9 _ 16.1 _ -3.9 _ 132 _ 076 __ 9 __ Bal,Val
musicmental85 _____5.8 _ 18.0 _ -8.0 _ 021 _ 041 _ 21 __ Oak,Val
___________________________________________________

Your bonus temperature difference has been rounded where decimals used, as the values to be used will be integers (from 06z hourly reports on met.ie website).

Here's a table showing all the combinations predicted:

_ cold>>CLA _ MUL _ CAS _ BAL _ OAK _ SHA

mild vv
VAL ___ 1 ___ 9 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 4 ___ 0 ________ 17/28 (61%)
MAL ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ 4/28 (14%)
SHE ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 _________ 5/28 (18%)
J.C. ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 1/28 (4%)

cold TOT 1 ___ 15 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 7 ___ 1
cold % .. 4 ___ 54 __ 7 __ 7 __ 25 ___ 4

I will report on any possible wins each day starting whenever I spot a -2 or lower on the 06z obs (at one of our six candidate stations).

Every cold station got some love, Belmullet and Mace Head had no supporters for mildest at that time. The Mullingar-Valentia couplet was preferred by 32% of the field.

More generally speaking, the field consensus is for a rather mild, wet and dull month (which is what November is anyway, so very mild, very wet and very dull I suppose). This table would be amended if any really late forecasts arrive later today or tomorrow. Current lateness penalty is 20.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2013 7:29am

A number of stations have been at -2 C at various times overnight. So here's how our bonus works out today (probably not the final answer) ...

At 06z, the coldest qualifying station was Oak Park at -1

At 06z, the mildest qualifying station was Malin at 8

difference 9

(Sherkin was off-line but probably not as mild as 8, Val and Roches Pt were 5)

So far then, the leading entry is 9 Oak/Mal (which is what Jpmarn has entered).

snowstreams · 04-11-2013 5:16pm

I take it Im far too late now to enter this month?
I was away without internet access and totally forgot!

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2013 7:26pm

You can enter for fun and see what score you would have made, without going back and looking at the tables, I think you had one missed month before so this one couldn't help your annual score much with the 30 points taken off, but ya never know, a perfect forecast would still score 70 which is better than most of us will do. Just enter on the page here so I don't need to check the form, if you want. The bonus answer would also be limited to max of 7 total points.

snowstreams · 05-11-2013 11:39am

Thanks I entered anyway for the fun of it!
Thats some difference in the minima around the country.

homolumo · 08-11-2013 11:35am

Jaysus I missed this completely. First one since I started doing them I think.

M.T. Cranium · 09-11-2013 1:35am

After one week, the stats are as follows:

IMT stands on 6.6

MAX is probably yet to come (nothing over 13 yet)
MIN so far is -2.6 at Markree on 4th

PRC is 88%

SUN is 97%

Tae laidir · 10-11-2013 3:26am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990).

Interesting!

Tae laidir · 12-11-2013 11:32am

MAX 15.6 Johnstown yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 19-11-2013 7:29am

IMT was 7.4 after 17th but is probably 7.0 now as it was estimated to be 7.2 after Monday. It may level off around 6 at some point around the weekend.

PRC is a bit on the low side at 73%

SUN continues a little above normal at about 115% although the last seven days were generally cloudy.

This morning failed to beat the earlier qualifying low (it was no colder than zero C at 06z) for our bonus question (would need -2 or lower) but I suspect this will happen within a few days for a new result there.

M.T. Cranium · 19-11-2013 6:46pm

I just noticed there was a new entry from Pauloconn on the 8th ... I will add this to the scoring table and give it a generous 30 point penalty, since it won't affect any other contestants.

Pauloconn __ (-30) ___ 6.3 __ 14.4 __ --2.3 __ 112 __ 106 __ 6 (Bal, Bel)

M.T. Cranium · 22-11-2013 7:34am

I was expecting to update the bonus question this morning, but found the lowest qualifying temperature at 0600h was only -1 at Ballyhaise. Meanwhile it was -5 at Gurteen so we'll definitely have a new MIN.

M.T. Cranium · 23-11-2013 7:25am

Under the bonus question rules, we have a new qualifier. Shannon at -2 was coldest at 0600h and Malin reported 8.

So it's Sha/Mal 10 for the current bonus answer. This could change again.

It was actually as cold as -4 at Casement around midnight and 0100h then it warmed up to +2. Meanwhile Ballyhaise and Oak Park were also at -2 earlier in the night and warmed up a bit at 0600h.

Tae laidir · 23-11-2013 2:13pm

Gurteen -5.7 yesterday.

Tae laidir · 24-11-2013 11:02pm

Yesterday's Weather
Malin: Max 9.5, Min 7.1
Gurteen: Max 5.7, Min -5.6
Gurteen didn't make it to Bonus Question!

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2013 12:46am

Nope, I added Ballyhaise instead (to the IMT five), Gurteen is usually about the same as Mullingar so I didn't think about adding it. Not sure what it was reading at 06 but probably colder than Shannon was.

The bonus for December will be the usual one about max and min on Christmas Day plus an extra 3-pt bonus for snowfall anywhere in Ireland on the 25th.

I will open the thread tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest.

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2013 7:09pm

The IMT stands on 6.5 C and isn't likely to move much ... PRC is lower than most if not all forecasts and seems likely to come in around 60% of normal despite a few stations having near normal totals ... SUN not as closely watched by yours truly but seems around normal. Looking at the forecasts the scores are not going to be astronomical (sort of like comet ISON in a way, dim but almost extinct).

With Sunday being the first, look for scores on Monday 2nd (late afternoonish).

And please consider entering both the December and winter-season contests, threads open for your use.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2013 5:43pm

November's final damages are:

IMT __ 6.5 C

MAX __ 15.6 (11th, Johnstown Castle)

MIN __ --5.7 (22nd, Gurteen)

PRC __ 57%

SUN __ 100%

see earlier post for bonus question answers (10 deg, Shannon/Malin)

Scoring to follow as I struggle mightily to become fully awake. This was actually the effect of Nov 2013 on most of us, I suspect.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2013 7:48pm

Scoring for November

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Bon __ TOTALS
______________________________________________________________

talkabout _________ 18 _ 18 _ 14* _ 01* _ 09 _ 08,00 ___ 68
traecy.1 __________ 19 _ 16 _ 19 __ 01* _ 09 _ 03,00 ___ 67
John mac _________ 15 _ 18 _ 11* _ 08* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 65
M.T. Cranium ______ 15 _ 13 _ 11* _ 11* _ 08 _ 07,00 ___ 65
rikand ____________ 17 _ 16 _ 16* _ 01* _ 10 _ 05,00 ___ 65
Strasser __________ 13 _ 15 _ 11* _ 06* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 58
Joe Public (-5) _____ 07 _ 13 _ 14* _ 10* _ 10 _ 07,00 _ 61-5 = 56
kindredspirit _______ 11 _ 14 _ 06* _ 08* _ 09 _ 07,00 ___ 55
dacogawa _________ 21 _ 15 _ 06* _ 00 __ 05 _ 07,00 ___ 54

Con Sensus _______ 15 _ 16 _ 00 __ 06* __ 09 _ 08,00 ___ 54

seafields __________ 16 _ 16 _ 04* _ 01* _ 10 _ 05,00 ___ 52
omicron ___________17 _ 04 _ 04* _ 09* _ 10 _ 07,01 ___ 52
dasa29 ___________ 20 _ 04 _ 07* _ 06* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 50
H2UMrsRobinson ____09 _ 06 _ 12* _ 13* _ 07 _ 00,01 ___ 48
mickger844posts ___ 13 _ 15 _ 04* _ 01* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 46
nilhg _____________ 09 _ 14 _ 01* _ 06* _ 09 _ 07,00 ___ 46
Jpmarn ___________ 11 _ 11 _ 00 __ 06* _ 09 _ 07,01 ___ 45
okla ______________15 _ 15 _ 00 __ 02* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 45
rameire (-5) ________18 _ 13 _ 00 __ 06* _ 08 _ 05,00 _ 50-5 = 45
200 motels ________ 15 _ 19 _ 00 __ 00 __ 05 _ 05,00 ___ 44
Tae laidir __________09 _ 14 _ 01* _ 02* _ 09 _ 08,00 ___ 43
lostinashford (-5) ___21 _ 04 _ 01* _ 09* _ 09 _ 02,00 _ 46-5 = 41
Bsal ______________09 _ 14 _ 04* _ 00 __ 08 _ 03,00 ___ 38
DOCARCH _________ 15 _ 00 _ 00 __ 06* _ 08 _ 08,00 ___ 37
waterways ________ 08 _ 02 _ 08* _ 01* _ 09 _ 08,00 ___ 36
harps ___ (-5) _____ 14 _ 07 _ 00 __ 01* _ 08 _ 07,00 _ 37-5 = 32
musicmental85 _____ 18 _ 00 _ 02* _ 12* _ 00 _ 00,00 ___ 32
delw ______________00 _ 04 _ 00 __ 08* _ 09 _ 01,01 ___ 23
snowstreams (-35) __24 _ 14 _ 01* _ 01* _ 09 _ 02,00 _ 51-35 = 16
pauldry ___________ 02 _ 00 _ 00 __ 03* _ 08 _ 01,00 ___ 14

Pauloconn (late) ____ 23 _ 08 _ 00 __ 02* _ 09 _ 02,00 ___ 44 (10)

________________________

(edit 8:40 p.m., table now sorted ... scores for MIN and PRC were boosted by minimum progression rule where * appears ... with the bonus, nobody got the double bonus points for guessing both locations involved, in fact only one person picked Shannon to be coldest and Malin was not favoured to be mildest, so a few people got one point there, otherwise your scores are out of eight for the differential. Ties were numerous, scoring generous. Pauloconn's score is for informational purposes only, he was technically too late to post a forecast. The next item on the agenda is the annual update followed by the much-unanticipated four-seasons award FINAL ANNOUNCEMENT (expect these around 10 pm and 11 pm if I don't get any actual work in the meantime).

Congrats to talkabout, tracey.1, rikand & John mac for leading the way this month.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2013 10:57pm

Updated Annual scoring report

rank/
best 9 _ Forecaster _______ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ Total

01 560 Con Sensus _______75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 _ 76 _ 44 _ 55 _ 58 _ 59 _ 54 __ 628 (2)

01 555 Tae laidir ________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 _ 55 _ 59 _ 47 _ 65 _ 75 _ 43 __ 636 (1)
02 537 harps ___________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 _ 70 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 _ 67 _ 32 __ 611 (2)
03 529 dasa29___________35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 _ 68 _ 21 _ 42 _ 59 _ 31 _ 50 __ 581 (4)
04 524 kindredspirit ______66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 _ 66 _ 51 _ 65 _ 60 _ 55 _ 55 __ 600 (3)
05 500 Jerry Seinfeld_____ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 _ 74 _ 24 _ 44 _ 59 _ 43 _ --- __ 524 (15)

06 499 omicron _________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 _ 67 _ --- _ 72 _ 45 _ 51 _ 52 __ 521 (16t)
07 497 traecy.1 _________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 _ 56 _ 50 _ 33 _ 60 _ 62 _ 67__ 547 (8)
08 491 Bsal _____________54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 _ 75 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 47 _ 38 __ 563 (5)
09 488 mickger844posts __ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 _ 49 _ 66 _ 39 _ 60 _ 67 _ 46 __ 560 (6)
10 487 DOCARCH________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 _ 39 _ 56 _ 60 _ 37 __ 553 (7)

11 481 John mac_________50 _ 23 _ 21 _ --- _ 64 _ 94 _ 31 _ 60 _ 50 _ 44 _ 65 __ 502 (21)
12 479 Pauldry __________59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 _ 57 _ 32 _ 42 _ 51 _ 72 _ 14 __ 525 (11t)
13 478 rameire__________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 _ 80 _ 18 _ 65 _ 39 _ 47 _ 45 __ 525 (11t)
14 475 Joe Public ________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 _ 44 _ 62 _ 55 _ 57 _ 49 _ 56 __ 521 (16t)
15 473 talkabout ________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 _ 67 _ 43 _ 43 _ 54 _ 30 _ 68 __ 534 (10)

16 472 homolumo _______ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 _ 67 _ 27 _ 35 _ 73 _ 35 _ -- __ 499 (22)
17 467 200motels________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 _ 25 _ 33 _ 46 _ 67 _ 58 _ 44 __ 525 (11t)
18 458 Rikand __________ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 _ 75 _ 38 _ 42 _ 48 _ 38 _ 65 __ 514 (20)
19 457 nilhg ____________44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 _ 51 _ 76 _ 54 _ 37 _ 45 _ 46 __ 535 (9)
19 457 jpmarn __________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 _ 59 _ 65 _ 36 _ 54 _ 61 _ 45 __ 515 (19)

21 453 dacogawa________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 _ 51 _ 40 _ 44 _ 76 _ 37 _ 54 __ 525 (11t)
21 453 okla ____________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 17 _ -- _ 69 _ 45 __ 470 (25)
23 452 M.T. Cranium _____ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 _ 48 _ 52 _ 40 _ 55 _ 54 _ 65 __ 517 (18)
24 444 Strasser _________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- _ 43 _ 28 _ 72 _ 38 _ 44 _ 58 __ 472 (24)
25 437 waterways _______ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 _ 43 _ 14 _ --- _ 73 _ 51 _ 36 __ 451 (26)

26 434 lostinashford _____ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 _ 73 _ 50 _ 38 _ 57 _ 35 _ 41 __ 490 (23)
26 434 jd ______________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 _ 56 _ 31 _ 47 _ 59 _ 43 _ -- __ 448 (27)
28 412 snowstreams______ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 _ 50 _ 28 _ 46 _ 46 _ 66 _ 16 __ 428 (29)
29 401 Seafields ________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 _ 56 _ 36 _ 44 _ 46 _ 26 _ 52 __ 443 (28)
30 394 delw_____________46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 _ -- _ 26 _ 21 _ 47 _ 13 _ 23 __ 407 (30)

31 368 H2UMrsRobinson __ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 _ 10 _ 32 _ 25 _ 46 _ 57 _ 48 __ 400 (31)
32 279 cherryghost ______ 71 _ 58 _ 21 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 42 _ 38 _ 49 _ --- _ ---__ 279 (32)

Three or four entries __

Hammer Archer _________ 63 _ 60 _ --- _ 46 _ 46 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- __ 215 (33)
Bejubby _______________ -- _ 46 _ 44 _ 40 _ 25 _ -- _ --- _ -- __ 21 _ -- _ -- __ 176 (34)
Rebelbrowser ___________ 52 _ 14 _ 33 _ 55 _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- ___ 154 (35)
dexter647 ______________ -- _ 32 _ --- _ 63 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ 54 _ -- _ -- __ 149 (36)
Gonzo _________________________ 30 _ -- _ 52 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 53 _ -- _ -- __ 135 (37)
Rocky Bay _____________ 43 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 37 _ 20 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 100 (40)

____________________________________________

Two entries

jambofc 71 (Jan), 54 (Feb) ____ 125 (38)
nabber 69 (Feb) 38 (Mar) _____ 107 (39)
Quixelles 64 (June) 19 (July) ____83
Keith96 52 (July), 18 (Aug) _____70
MiNdGaM3 30 (Jan) 32 (Feb) ____62
clintondaly 50 (June) 10 (July) __ 60

(one entry)

Deep Easterly 69 (Jan)
Danno 65 (Jan)
howlinwolf 59 (Jan)
Tazio 58 (June)
E. Fudd 55 (Feb)
Deank 53 (Feb)
"plan comes together" 53 (Jan)
singers 53 (Aug)
blackbird 49 (Aug)
baraca 50 (Feb)
NIALL_D 35 (Jan)
BEASTERLY 34 (Jan)
musicmental85 .. 32 (Nov)
Pauloconn 10 (Nov)
___________________________________________________

So, our nemesis Con Sensus has moved back into the lead in the main contest (Boards award) although Tae laidir maintains a lead over Con and everyone else in the total score (MTC) contest. Ranks in each can be found in the first entry of each row (Boards contest) and the last entry (MTC contest). Ties are noted by the letter t.

Next up, the Four seasons award, once I find the last instalment and do a bit of extra adding of scores for months S_O_N above.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2013 11:32pm

Autumn seasonal points

traecy.1 __________ 189 (10 pt)
Tae laidir _________ 183 ( 7 pt)
M.T. Cranium ______ 174 (6 pt)
mickger844posts ___ 173 (5 pt)
kindred spirit ______ 170 (4 pt)
200motels ________ 169 (3 pt)
dacogawa _________ 167 (2 pt)
Joe Public _________ 162 (1 pt)
harps ____________ 160
jpmarn ___________ 160
waterways ________ 160
John Mac _________ 159
DOCARCH ________ 153
talkabout _________ 152
Rikand ___________ 151
H2UMrs Robinson __ 151

Well done traecy.1 for winning the autumn 2013 points total.

This feeds into the previous three-season table to give these final standings in the

Four Seasons Award ( point totals )
______________________________________________

Bsal (0,6,10,0) _______ 16

harps (7,2,4,0) _______ 13
kindredspirit (1,2,6,4)__ 13
Tae laidir (2,3,1,7) ____ 13
homolumo (10,0,0,0)___ 10
dasa29 (0,10,0,0) _____ 10
traecy.1 (0,0,0,10) ____ 10
Jerry Seinfeld (4,5,0,0)__ 9
delw (0,7,0,0) _________ 7
John Mac (0,0,7,0) _____ 7
DOCARCH (1,1,4,0)_____ 6
waterways (6,0,0,0) ____ 6
M.T. Cranium (0,0,0,6) __ 6
jambofc (5,0,0,0) ______ 5
nilhg (0,0,5,0) _________ 5
mickger844p (0,0,0,5) ___ 5
okla (0,4,0,0) __________ 4
Pauldry (3,0,0,0)________ 3
rameire (0,1,2,0) _______ 3
200 motels (0,0,0,3) ____ 3
Joe Public (0,0,1,1) _____ 2
dacogawa (0,0,0,2) _____ 2
Hammer Archer(1,0,0,0) _ 1
lostinashford (0,0,1,0) __ 1
Jpmarn (0,0,1,0) _______ 1

So, despite being shut out of the autumn points, Bsal takes the Four Seasons Award, with harps, kindredspirit and Tae laidir tied for second. Notice I didn't score Con Sensus, he gets enough awards anyway.

Bsal gained his victory by scoring well in spring and winning summer.

An interesting factoid is that all three of the other seasonal champs scored no other points in the other three seasons. Two of our three tied for second (kindredspirit and Tae laidir) were the only forecasters to gain points each season.

I will probably change the point structure for this award in 2014 (this month starts us off) to give the seasonal winner 15 and then go from 10 down to 1 for the next ten scores. You can see above that some fairly similar scores in autumn were separated by quite a few points.

November 2013 Boards forecast contest

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