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04-09-2012, 08:34   #16
 
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Estofex have an interesting discussion on it this morning. It reads like something out of the NHC!



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Side note:

Since yesterday, a well structured cold-core low looped cyclonically atop Corsica and is currently situated roughly at 40°30' N and 8-9° E, featuring an E-W elongated center. Also, mid-tropospheric vortex built downwards and 19Z ASCAT scan featured a 15-20 kt surface depression just to the NW of Sardinia which moved east/southeastwards since then. A 30-35 kt surface wind maximum along its northern/western fringe is not correlated with the organizing surface circulation but exists rather due to a channeled gradient flow. Just before landfall over N-Sardinia, DMC increased in strength and organization next to the center but decreased markedly after landfall. An increase in DMC was noted along the northern/northeastern fringe due to increasing LL convergence.

During the start of the forecast period, the depression's center should emerge off of Sardinia into the N-Tyrrhenian Sea and therefore further to the north than most models indicated 24 h ago. However, due to the asymmetric and elongated circulation center and movement atop the rough orography of Sardinia, uncertainties still exist if the center may reform a bit more to the south. Anyhow, this motion brings the depression's center atop an anticyclonic eddy with SSTs of 27-28 °C / positive SST anomalies of 2-3 K and good heat content. As the cyclonic vortex is not yet vertically stacked, some slow eastward motion is still expected with a more or less quasi-stationary motion over the far NE Tyrrhenian Sea during the end of the forecast. At that time, SSTs decrease by roughly 3K. Despite a gradual warming trend of the mid-/upper level vortex and an increase of the geopotential heights as a response of the more zonal flow pattern over N-Europe, background environment remains supportive of a temporarily confined core modification. DLS is already weak and continues to weaken with some weak upper divergence forecast.

A lot depends on the final track of the depression, but confidence increases that a subtropical cyclone may evolve between Sardinia and C-Italy during the forecast. Still a few high resolution models indicate moderate to rapid intensification and is was noted that overall model tendency approached the shallow warm core phase in FSU phase diagrams. Surrounding sounding data also confirm a decrease of the dry slot strength and ongoing moistening, so overall environmental conditions seem supportive for strengthening/organization. An intensity forecast is hard to create due to

a) proximity to the islands/Italy
b) potential infiltration of more stable stratified, rain cooled air from N-C Italy during the forecast
c) uncertainty how strong/persisting convergence and DMC east of Corsica may affect the development of the depression's center and attendant banding structure

Especially in case of the depression's motion atop the warm eddy, we would not rule out a ST 2.5 classification, which would equal 35-40 kt . In any case, the feature will be closely monitored during the following 24 hours.
The latest runs now show it moving southwards through the Tyrhennian Sea tonight, which would keep it over warmer SSTs and possibly allow it to strengthen more. Interesting to watch.
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15-11-2017, 21:23   #17
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Thought I'd resurrect the thread. Close it if I'm wrong to but...

Models picking up on a possible "Medicane" come Friday potentially affecting Italy and Greece. Might be another event of interest to people.
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16-11-2017, 14:44   #18
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Fuengirola and the general Malaga region, had a terrible rain storm depression early December last year, I remember some business's in the local area who were ruined and closed down due to severe flooding. There was a similar storm back in 1989 in the same area which resulted in millions spent on fixing the promenade and flood prevention.

Let's hope the same area doesn't have a repeat this year, they can do without another red alert storm this year.

http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-ne...in-since-1989/
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17-11-2017, 15:45   #19
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Area of interest between Greece and Italy a couple of hours ago. It's not expected to be one of the stronger medicanes if it develops those tropical like characteristics but could bring more flooding to an already sodden Greece.
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18-09-2018, 15:42   #20
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http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/a-possible-formation-of-medicane-in-the-tyrhenian-sea-on-thursday-sept-20th/

"Medicane" season has arrived.

Possible development 'somewhere' in the Tyrrhenian sea picked up by some models.
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20-09-2018, 10:57   #21
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A more traditional cyclone has formed in the area of interest with strong convection towards its centre. Conditions are favourable for the development of a "Medicane" within this circulation. It is expected to brush eastern Sardinia before moving towards Tunisia though is currently near still in position. Several inches of rain in a short period of time possible in Eastern Sardinia. Though it's predicted to travel to Tunisia previous storms in this location have been known to dupe forecasters and travel eastward.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses...83823559987200
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20-09-2018, 11:22   #22
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This is an interesting thread and with a lot of people travelling in the region all year round, it is of more than academic interest. I wonder however would the thread title lead to it being overlooked especially as the thread is likely to disappear before reappearing periodically. Might the word "medicane" be useful in the title? Maybe in brackets as an addition? Just a thought!
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22-09-2018, 14:01   #23
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The disturbance failed to gain a characteristic Medicane eye formation. It travelled South to Tunisia as forecast and is currently dropping heavy rain in the north of the country




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22-09-2018, 14:11   #24
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It did have a very warm core but the max winds were displaced from the centre. I'd say it would be classified more of a subtropical cyclone.
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23-09-2018, 13:27   #25
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Four people confirmed dead from the effects of the storm in NE Tunisia. The coastal city of Nabeul was one of the worst hit with 8 inches of rain falling in a 24 hour period. That's the equivalent of 6 months of average yearly rainfall in the region.

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26-09-2018, 13:49   #26
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New area of interest in the triangle between Italy Libya and Greece. A tropical like system appears on several models. Orginally it was aiming towards the Greek islands but some want to take it westwards towards Italy. 3 days away its make-up, direction and strength are up in the air.

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27-09-2018, 16:47   #27
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International forecasters and media seem to have picked up on this storm given its severe potential. This might be useful for any unsuspecting late getaway Irish holidayers in the region.

The GFS has given up on moving the disturbance into Italy. Most models have it head in that NW direction before turning east. They seem to be trending toward a more southerly track pushing the focus from the Greek mainland to Crete in particular.

Gales and heavy rain have already been affecting many areas of Greece in recent days. Local authorities who have closed schools as a result of this have decided to keep them closed as the development of this storm brings potential for deterioration of conditions.

Wind speeds and rainfall remain uncertain but both, particularly rainfall, could become extremely dangerous with several inches likely across a wide area where the storm passes and higher amounts again locally.

Beyond the area of Crete models currently show the now weakening disturbance travelling towards SW Turkey.
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27-09-2018, 18:23   #28
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All eyes to the Sirte Gulf north of Libya. A non tropical cyclone has begun to form. This will likely transition in the coming hours.

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29-09-2018, 17:54   #29
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https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/...79498263961601
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01-10-2018, 20:24   #30
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The storm as it arrived in SW Greece this weekend

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