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05-12-2019, 16:58   #1
YanSno
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Technical / Discussion Tropical Cyclones 2019-2020

First system for the south Indian ocean.
Cyclone Ambali formed yesterday southwest of Diego Garcia, and is currently rapidly intensifying. So far, the storm has estimated winds of 100mph (160kph) with higher gusts, and the intensification phase isn't yet complete. The storm is likely to continue towards the southwest but rapidly weaken this weekend into early next week.

Land impacts are unlikely, but up to 100mm of rain could fall on St Brandon, and a 5% chance of tropical storm conditions in Mauritius.

There another system north or Madagascar likely to be name Belna probably this evening or tomorrow.

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06-12-2019, 07:19   #2
YanSno
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Explosive intensification of Ambali overnight is now Very intense tropical cyclone Ambali with gusts reaching 330km/hr.
Still moving south south west at a speed of 13km/hr. Further intensification may occur during the day and Ambali is still forecasted to weaken rapidly as from tomorrow.
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06-12-2019, 09:47   #3
M.T. Cranium
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330 km/hr must be close to a global record.

Can you post any links to official tracking of south Indian tropical cyclones? I assume maybe it's Meteo France in charge?
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06-12-2019, 14:16   #4
YanSno
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Meteo France, Mauritius Meteorological Station with the help of the Base in Diego Garcia monitors all cyclones in the south Indian basin.

Well Ambali has suffered, travelling into dry air has caused the system to rapidly weaken.

Official report from https://www.m-r.li/cyclone/hist_point_mf_3.html

Earlier this morning at 0400 Ambali reached it's peak as follows :
Cyclone Tropical Very Intense AMBALI 930 hPa.
Maximum average wind speed over 10 minutes: 222 km / h (120 kt)
Maximum gusting at sea: 313 km / h
Position on Friday, December 6, 2019 at 4:00 am (meeting time): 10.5 South / 62.2 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1355 km north-northeast.
Displacement: South-South-West 13 km / h.
No alert on the meeting.

It has now be classed as a Tropical disturbance.

Link to follow cyclone tracking:
http://www.meteofrance.re/

https://www.meteo-reunion.com/cyclone/index.php

http://metservice.intnet.mu/
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06-12-2019, 19:42   #5
YanSno
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AMBALI OFFICIALLY BREAKS THE RECORD.

Cyclone Ambali put on quite a show for us Thursday with it’s extreme rapid intensification phase. The system was upgraded to a tropical storm at 18:00 UTC Wednesday with winds of 35 knots (40 mph), and likely attained Category 5 intensity with winds of 140 knots (160 mph) 24 hours later – A 120 mph increase in 24 hours, the 2nd quickest intensification phase ever recorded behind Hurricane Patricia in 2015, and the quickest intensification rate ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere.

Ambali’s 120 mph increase in 24 hours is extraordinarily rare. While rapidly intensifying storms do happen every year, a storm increasing 120 mph in 24 hours does not. Conditions were nearly perfect for rapid intensification of Ambali. 30C waters were in the storm’s path shortly after formation for at least 2 days, along with wind shear less than 5 knots near the storm’s peak intensity. The storm’s record peak intensity makes it the first Very Intense Tropical Cyclone on the local scale since Fantala in 2016, and the only A name in the basin to reach that status.

As Ambali continues to weaken, Belna is intensifying – and is a significant threat to Madagascar.

Last edited by YanSno; 06-12-2019 at 19:51.
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Yesterday, 07:44   #6
YanSno
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Cyclone Tropical BELNA 977 hPa.
10-minute mean maximum wind: 130 km / h (70 kt)
Maximum gusting at sea: 183 km / h
Position Sunday, December 8, 2019 at 10:00 (Meeting time): 11.9 South / 46.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1370 km northwest.
Displacement: South-South-West 11 km / h.
Serious threat for Madagascar.
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Yesterday, 10:14   #7
Gaoth Laidir
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This activity was due to a quick burst in the MJO in the western Indian Ocean, but all activ8ty should die down now as the MJO becomes indiscernible.

From the BOM's weekly update, issued Dec 3rd.

Quote:
Weak Madden–Julian Oscillation to have minimal influence on Australian rainfall

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was indiscernible during the past week. While most climate models indicate the MJO will remain indiscernible for the next fortnight, some models indicate it might strengthen over the western Indian Ocean in the coming days, before rapidly weakening in about a week or two as it encounters the influence of the positive IOD over the eastern Indian Ocean. This region presents a hostile environment to a pulse of enhanced weather, such as the MJO, due to cooler than average sea surface temperatures, dry easterly winds and widespread, descending air which inhibits deep cloud formation.

An MJO pulse over the western Indian Ocean at this time of the year typically decreases the chance of above-average rainfall across northern Australia and the Maritime Continent. However, if the MJO pulse remains weak or indiscernible, its influence on rainfall patterns over northern Australia is likely to be insignificant.
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