Further Cold Spell In February? 0-180 Charts Only

Harps · 08-02-2012 6:00pm

Haven't seen many model runs this week but it just never seems to be a straight forward route whenever something potentially interesting is being progged :rolleyes:

UKMO backing up its midnight run with another nice northerly, didn't see the 6Z GFS but the 12Z is along the same lines as the UKMO but further east. ECMWF miles away with the low centred as far east as Denmark. The 12Z will be interesting but it'd be too easy if it followed the rest, expecting another poor run before the inevitable downgrades elsewhere!

darkman2 · 08-02-2012 6:05pm

The GFS is moving toward the UKMO on the operational and ensembles. I'd expect the ECM to be broadly similar to the UKMO this evening tbh. But we'll see. We are not there yet.

lucernarian · 08-02-2012 6:08pm

None of these northerlies particularly excite me if they end up being a toppler.

blackius · 08-02-2012 6:14pm

darkman2 wrote: »

The GFS is moving toward the UKMO on the operational and ensembles. I'd expect the ECM to be broadly similar to the UKMO this evening tbh. But we'll see. We are not there yet.

Looks lovely.
Almost similar to the end of nov 10.
But it won't happen.
The high will be over us or too near the west.

Amsterdam airport might shut again with north sea streamers though.

darkman2 · 08-02-2012 6:18pm

blackius wrote: »

Looks lovely.
Almost similar to the end of nov 10.
But it won't happen.
The high will be over us or too near the west.

Amsterdam airport might shut again with north sea streamers though.

I'm not saying it will happen. I'd keep an eye the next few days on the models though because there is an increasing chance it will happen. It may be for only 48hrs or it could be a longer cold period of weather. GFS, UKMO both going the right way. Let's see what the ECM shows later on.

Calibos · 08-02-2012 6:22pm

This isn't great for the South Eastcoasters though is it? North eastern counties might see something before the streamers crossing Ulster run out of puff but those of us from Dublin down to Wexford would just get to gaze longingly out into the Irish sea as the streamers headed south past us 20 miles out to sea. Or have I got it wrong?

blackius · 08-02-2012 6:30pm

darkman2 wrote: »

I'm not saying it will happen. I'd keep and eye the next few days on the models though because there is an increasing chance it will happen. It may be for only 48hrs or it could be a longer cold period of weather. GFS, UKMO both going the right way. Let's see what the ECM shows later on.

yerrah,I know that

Thats why I said it looks lovely.

@calibos It would bring similar north easterly conditions to the end of november 10 so snow streamers reaching waterford eventually and certainly anywhere from Belfast to Wexford with a good chance for Dublin and wicklow east meath and kildare again with occassional snow sortey's from Donegal to sligo at times aswell.
The isle of man shadow would be active also.

But really,this winter has form now for high pressures to locate over or near us so don't hold your breath regarding the above happening.

darkman2 · 08-02-2012 6:37pm

blackius wrote: »

yerrah,I know that
Thats why I said it looks lovely.

@calibos It would bring similar north easterly conditions to the end of november 10 so snow streamers reaching waterford eventually and certainly anywhere from Belfast to Wexford with a good chance for Dublin and wicklow east meath and kildare again with occassional snow sortey's from Donegal to sligo at times aswell.
The isle of man shadow would be active also.

But really,this winter has form now for high pressures to locate over or near us so don't hold your breath regarding the above happening.

It's not beyond possibility a Northeasterly could occur on the UKMO charts. But I don't think it's there yet and that could be just a 48hr toppler back to Atlantic conditions. Having said that obviously we don't see the UKMO beyond 144hrs which is why i'm eager to see the ECM. For a Northeasterly we need the trough to dig down Southwest ward. It's a big ask.

Don't forget too in a Northerly flow there will be troughs and little features that would pep up precipitation which could bring more widespread snow showers or longer period of snow. UKMO charts are shown at a lower resolution so we can't see trough lines on those charts but 100% certain there would be in that flow shown.

EDIT: 12z ECM not going for full retrogression of high pressure

Given the GFS has moved toward the UKMO then you would have to fancy the UK Met take on things for the moment.

Musicman2000 · 08-02-2012 7:32pm

Poor ECM 12Z so far compared to the UKMO 12Z

ECM1-120.GIF?08-0

And here comes spring at 144hrs toppling all the way to Ireland

ECM0-144.GIF?08-0

darkman2 · 08-02-2012 11:23pm

18z brings the GFS a little closer to the UKMO outlook by deepening the trough in the North Sea and a slightly more generous height rise over Greenland

derekon · 08-02-2012 11:34pm

Following a quick look at the North Atlantic pressure charts this evening, I have a bad feeling that the following scenario will unfold - High Pressure will be centred right over Ireland next week which will mean that the arctic plunge of air will be reserved for the east coast of England and the already cold ravaged continent of Europe. Ireland will miss out again. So close but yet so far. Story of our winter eh?

D

Deep Easterly · 08-02-2012 11:36pm

I think the first half of Feb this year will be noted for its high daily mean sea level pressure values over Ireland if nothing else.. Apart from 2 hours on the 4th, we have been above 1020hPa since the 1st of Feb and over 1030hpa for much of that time. This trend looks like continuing for a good few days yet with high pressure zones hovering close to the country is some shape or form.

TheMilkyPirate · 08-02-2012 11:45pm

darkman2 wrote: »

18z brings the GFS a little closer to the UKMO outlook by deepening the trough in the North Sea and a slightly more generous height rise over Greenland

Much better alright, -10 850s over the whole east coast by wednesday morning, would be nice.

00zs will be interesting.

darkman2 · 08-02-2012 11:54pm

baraca wrote: »

00zs will be interesting.

Mark my words, there will be upgrades in the morning;)

Rebelbrowser · 09-02-2012 12:42am

darkman2 wrote: »

baraca wrote: »

00zs will be interesting.

Mark my words, there will be upgrades in the morning;)

Its the subsequent downgrades in the afternoon that concern me!

Deep Easterly · 09-02-2012 1:01am

darkman2 wrote: »

Mark my words, there will be upgrades in the morning;)

I think after looking at this evening's runs, anything remotely different will be seen as an upgrade. As Birdnuts rightly said the other day, snorefest supreme.

Harps · 09-02-2012 1:15am

Meh, I'd still expect it to mostly miss us to the east, maybe a glancing blow but nothing I'd bother getting excited about. Even a direct hit and its only a one or two day toppler

ECMWF and GEM both have it well to the east, UKMO and GFS more favourable but a quick look at the GFS ensembles for Donegal show a 50/50 spread with the Op run at the cold end while the ensembles for the North Sea off East Anglia are in broad agreement on -10C upper temps so likely the bulk of anything interesting will slide down the North Sea.

darkman2 · 09-02-2012 1:30am

I wouldn't be so pessimistic.:D

TheMilkyPirate · 09-02-2012 5:30am

00z is an upgrade, Too tired for charts !

Night

mickger844posts · 09-02-2012 6:05am

baraca wrote: »

00z is an upgrade, Too tired for charts !

Night

A definite upgrade on the GFS 0Z run

darkman2 · 09-02-2012 6:09am

Morning all

00z's a certain upgrade not only because the Northerly is maintained but also we could see a link between Atlantic high and Siberian high which would mean a Northeasterly or Easterly following the Northerly. It's a long shot but possible.

blackius · 09-02-2012 7:57am

darkman2 wrote: »

Morning all

00z's a certain upgrade not only because the Northerly is maintained but also we could see a link between Atlantic high and Siberian high which would mean a Northeasterly or Easterly following the Northerly. It's a long shot but possible.

Nice.

The ecm is a spoiler though.
Slack northerly and north westerly with the high pressure too near and Berlin airport shut as the low pressure is too far east again barreling in there eventually.

Our flow on that would be a boring 5 to 8 c affair.
Gem is the same.
So you've got to bet on in-between nothingness being the more likely outcome here again with winter hanging on relentlessly in south east England.

nilhg · 09-02-2012 9:25am

Once again the Operational and Control runs on the GFS are big cold outliers, probably almost 100% certain to be downgraded soon, this scenario is getting to be a regular occurance.

Again there is strong agreement between the ECMWF Operational run and its ensemble means this morning, if I was a betting man I know were my money would be going.....

ninebeanrows · 09-02-2012 9:43am

A lot of needless negativity here.

What do we have on the face of it this morning.

A consistent UKM showing a decent northerly blast.

A Very good GFS upgrading run to run.

An ECM which has improved from 0z and 12z from yesterday, not there yet but not far away.

So all in all decent model output.

What is not likely is a 7 day blast.

What is possible is a 3 day cold shot, bringing the most noteworthy spell of cold weather of the winter

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 09-02-2012 9:45am

Weathercheck wrote: »

A lot of needless negativity here.

What do we have on the face of it this morning.

A consistent UKM showing a decent northerly blast.

A Very good GFS upgrading run to run.

An ECM which has improved from 0z and 12z from yesterday, not there yet but not far away.

So all in all decent model output.

What is not likely is a 7 day blast.

What is possible is a 3 day cold shot, bringing the most noteworthy spell of cold weather of the winter

Well said !! Will be interesting to see the output of the 12z runs today, lets keep it going ! :pac:

srocliffe · 09-02-2012 9:59am

Weathercheck wrote: »

A lot of needless negativity here.

What do we have on the face of it this morning.

A consistent UKM showing a decent northerly blast.

A Very good GFS upgrading run to run.

An ECM which has improved from 0z and 12z from yesterday, not there yet but not far away.

So all in all decent model output.

What is not likely is a 7 day blast.

What is possible is a 3 day cold shot, bringing the most noteworthy spell of cold weather of the winter

I agree. One of the big problems that the last few winters has brought is that people are now looking for repeats of the long sustained cold spells with epic snow, and anything less is considered a disappointment and not worth getting excited about. We have to be more realistic. I will be more than happy with any lying snow at this stage, even if it is only a brief 24 event.

Elmer Blooker · 09-02-2012 10:54am

darkman2 wrote: »

Morning all

00z's a certain upgrade not only because the Northerly is maintained but also we could see a link between Atlantic high and Siberian high which would mean a Northeasterly or Easterly following the Northerly. It's a long shot but possible.

You beat me to it!
I've been watching that Russian high over the last few days and it may have retreated but its still there. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if it built westwards before the month is out. Large anticyclones have a habit of rebuilding (but not always) For example when an intense Azores high (1040mb) built early in the Winter I knew it would weaken occasionally but keep coming back which it did to ruin the winter! Lets hope the Russian high rebuilds and hp in the Atlantic is positioned further north this time.
Not asking for much am I? :rolleyes:
+144 ....... not impossible?

blackius · 09-02-2012 11:04am

I won't.
A week of snow or none thanks.
We've been here before this winter.
The Northerly looks likely but with us on the edge of it in a slack flow, a day or 2 being northwesterly with pressure surpressing showers and confining them to the far north and similar to December weakly wintry.

If that's our lot,its a sad outlook for us that like winter snow.I could be wrong but it's the form horse - no point in me expecting otherwise.
This kind of outlook doesn't inspire me to post so I will leave you to it unless there's a dramatic change

Elmer Blooker · 09-02-2012 11:29am

If anyone can be bothered look up Feb 1969 in the archives - a northerly on the 8th quickly became a toppler by the 10th. The rest of the month was E/NE and very snowy, not as good as '47 but similar to Feb 63.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

mickger844posts · 09-02-2012 11:43am

nilhg wrote: »

Once again the Operational and Control runs on the GFS are big cold outliers, probably almost 100% certain to be downgraded soon, this scenario is getting to be a regular occurance.

Again there is strong agreement between the ECMWF Operational run and its ensemble means this morning, if I was a betting man I know were my money would be going.....

Well called Nilhg. GFS 06z run a huge downgrade on the 0z. Your cold outlier call was correct.

delw · 09-02-2012 11:54am

mickger844posts wrote: »

Well called Nilhg. GFS 06z run a huge downgrade on the 0z. Your cold outlier call was correct.

so is this where we expect to see downgrades from the 12z?

mickger844posts · 09-02-2012 12:04pm

delw wrote: »

so is this where we expect to see downgrades from the 12z?

We didn't have to wait for the 12z we got them on the 06z

Rebelbrowser · 09-02-2012 12:16pm

mickger844posts wrote: »

delw wrote: »

so is this where we expect to see downgrades from the 12z?

We didn't have to wait for the 12z we got them on the 06z

Im pretty pesimistic on this possible cold spell but from watching charts recently the 6z GFS has been much less reliable than the 0z and the 12z.....

srocliffe · 09-02-2012 12:23pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Im pretty pesimistic on this possible cold spell but from watching charts recently the 6z GFS has been much less reliable than the 0z and the 12z.....

Exactly, while the latest GFS is very disappointing and may well be what we end up getting, people are also way too quick on here to jump on a downgrade on one run and immediately proclaim that winter is over, etc.

Anything can still happen at this stage, the next GFS may be a further downgrade, it may be an upgrade, either way the event in question is too far out for either version to be definitively declared as correct yet.

Deep Easterly · 09-02-2012 12:40pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

If anyone can be bothered look up Feb 1969 in the archives - a northerly on the 8th quickly became a toppler by the 10th. The rest of the month was E/NE and very snowy, not as good as '47 but similar to Feb 63.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

It reached -17.1c at Claremorris on the 17th of that month, -10.5c at Birr and even -7.3c at Valentia under a ridge of high pressure.

TheMilkyPirate · 09-02-2012 5:24pm

12z GFS no good. High too far east.

Harps · 09-02-2012 5:48pm

Had a quick run through the latest runs and they're pretty much backing up what the ECMWF and GEM were showing yesterday with high pressure dominant for another week, hopefully a mostly dry week once the current stalled front final dissipates. As I said last night the northerly is well to the east out in the North Sea, still can't see anything interesting coming of it

TheMilkyPirate · 09-02-2012 6:02pm

UKMO not great either but is best of a bad bunch at +120hr

darkman2 · 09-02-2012 6:47pm

Hi all,

Happy with the model output this evening. The important thing is to be on the cold side of the block as the UKMO shows. GFS progressive as usual but is an improvement on the 6z. ECM 00z and improvement on yesterdays 00z.

The UKMO is very interesting not just because it is cold but also because it's filled with even colder possibilities down the line.

Note the high pressure to the North and the Siberian high pressure to the East. The trough is digging down into the continent.

The high pressure to the north is a standalone high (note the "h") that's going to link with the Siberian high creating a northeasterly flow over the top of the trough down into the North sea and into the UK.

You have fronts approaching from the Northwest aswell which has not only the prospect of a "battle" between cold air to the east and milder air to the west (which could lead to frontal snow over Ireland) but also a possible undercut of the high pressure building to the Northeast as the High pressure to the southwest declines and it's influence finally diminishes.

The important thing is be on the cold side of the block. As long as we are on the cold side of the block chances of snow are actually very good. And if there is the possibility that high pressure to the Northeast will build towards us then it could only be the beginning of a longer period of cold weather with cold days and icy nights and a risk of snow.

So there is plenty of things to watch for the next few days.:) But that's a very good UKMO run. Huge potential for coldies in there:P

pistolpetes11 · 10-02-2012 12:36am

Well the 18z is not great from a cold lovers point of view , granted its the 18z but still not a solid day for the cold charts

Sinks away

Su Campu · 10-02-2012 12:49am

I still see things playing out as described the other day, with cold troughing taking over from the Scandi high. There seem to be slight differences in the exact movement of our local high over the weekend in response to variations in the handling of the low pressure system that's currently near New Foundland and which will skip along the top of the high and down the North Sea early next week. In any case it looks increasingly likely that we will be a couple of hundred miles too far west.....again, and central, eastern and southern Europe will see another (less harsh) blast.

In the longer term the high should sink southwards and allow a more cool zonal setup to take hold, keeping the NAO slightly positive. We could see some more cold northwesterlies at times, but with the PV probably going to enter into a slight recovery phase there's nothing to suggest a return of easterlies for much of the rest of the month.

darkman2 · 10-02-2012 1:44am

Aye well yeh see it's been an exceptionally difficult period to forecast for. The fact is that we have been remarkably unlucky (or lucky depending on your preference) and could well have ended up in the type of cold scenario the continentals are getting use to. The difference is no more then a couple of 100 miles either way and when your trying to determine a synoptic outlook like that for 5 or 6 days away it's extremely difficult. I do not and never have engaged in "hopecasting" of any form. My interpretation of where we are now in that a big pattern change is about to occur with high pressure positioned to the West or Northwest within the 5 - 7 days period and troughs digging south toward Ireland either bringing cold Northerlies or Northwesterlies. However that's not the only scenario as I have outlined already and it would be foolish at best to claim it is.

In terms of the models for the next few days the UKMO is the coldest output. The GFS has moved away slightly from that back towards the ECM outlook from Wednesday.

If the current retrogression attempt does not work out then there will be another one a couple of days later so it's not the end of the world if artic conditions don't arrive next week. It's only a delay.:)

jimmy.d · 10-02-2012 2:51pm

some nice charts

darkman2 · 10-02-2012 3:18pm

If at first you don't succeed try again is the theme across the models from this morning. Increasing confidence of another Northerly attempt around the 18th as high pressure moves west later next week.

Before that high pressure looks like becoming anchored just to the west giving a cool northwesterly airflow with good sunshine at times but also damp cloudy periods aswell. Temperatures around average, slightly below.

ninebeanrows · 10-02-2012 3:26pm

There has just been a continued lack of height rises over Greenland this winter. The models have flirted with the idea in the last few weeks but still nothing doing.

Appears a mild northwesterly followed by an increasing chance of a return to cool zonality.

TheMilkyPirate · 10-02-2012 4:42pm

darkman2 wrote: »

If at first you don't succeed try again is the theme across the models from this morning.

I'm beginning to feel it has been the theme of winter as a whole. We've had numerous occasions now with cold on the horizon only for it to never materialize. My confidence is waining somewhat for the first time this winter.

darkman2 · 10-02-2012 5:33pm

GFS consistent that a breakthrough to colder weather from the Northwest or North is finally on the cards (168hrs)

Let's see if other models follow to back it up.

UKMO going to same way

UW144-21.GIF?10-17

blackius · 10-02-2012 8:03pm

Meanwhile...
Back in this world..

The ecm ends europes freeze

Musicman2000 · 10-02-2012 8:39pm

Just reading some posts from the NOAA and according to them the ECM 12Z run after 168 hours can head for the bin.

Su Campu · 10-02-2012 9:20pm

That chart shows nicely what I think will happen, with the polar vortex gathering itself a bit again after going off on the tear a bit over the last few weeks. A general zonal setup looks likely, with the Azores high returning home and the Atlantic jet very near us. This will keep things fairly seasonal, but we could see a return to some deep Atlantic storms as the NAO goes positive. These could pull down some brief cold polar northwesterlies or northerlies in their wake which could give some wintriness, but overall I think the Atlantic is waking up and we could see a conveyor belt of depression after depression for the last week of the month.

Further Cold Spell In February? 0-180 Charts Only

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