January 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2013 8:26pm #1

ALERT is issued for the January 2014 forecast contest.

The 1981-2010 average IMT for January is 5.3 C

As always, the contest has five regular questions:

1. Predict the IMT (average for Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon)

2. Predict the MAX anywhere that Met.ie has a thermometer in action as reported in the Monthly Summary

3. Predict the MIN same basis

4. Predict the PRC as % of normal (winter PRC includes melted equivalents)

5. Predict the SUN as % of normal at reporting stations

6. Bonus this month: Maximum gust speed (knots) -- will the stormy trend continue? Give a location.

You can now enter this contest at the following location:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

(or enter directly here in the thread)

With the New Year holiday and form issues, I will extend the deadline one day so that all entries made before 0300h Friday 3 Jan will be penalty free and from then on, 5% per 8h will apply for catch-up to regular schedule. Any max gust achieved before you enter and matched by your guess will then limit your bonus score to 5/10 max, applies starting 04z 3rd.

Good luck.

Melanoma · 30-12-2013 10:35pm

IMT 5.9
MAX 15.1
MIN -7.2
PRC 101.3
SUN 103
Maximum gust speed (knots) 78 Malin head

200motels · 31-12-2013 12:06am

Done

dasa29 · 31-12-2013 1:14am

Done

Bsal · 31-12-2013 1:37am

Done.

Tae laidir · 31-12-2013 2:16am

Done.
Happy New Year to all.

omicron · 01-01-2014 3:18pm

Done!

Jpmarn · 02-01-2014 10:53am

Done

dacogawa · 02-01-2014 2:17pm

Done

homolumo · 02-01-2014 5:17pm

done

okla · 02-01-2014 6:25pm

Done.

DOCARCH · 02-01-2014 6:34pm

Done.

John mac · 02-01-2014 7:09pm

Done
Thought i was too late.

:)

~~(a tad breezy out there this evening)

talkabout · 02-01-2014 7:28pm

done

Joe Public · 02-01-2014 9:13pm

Done

Harps · 02-01-2014 9:49pm

Done

FrDougalMcguire · 02-01-2014 10:46pm

Current data for Charlestown Co. Mayo
02 January 2014 21:45:21

Temperature (°C):
Current 6.1
Trend (per hour) 0
Average today 4.7
Wind chill 2.0
Heat Index 6.1
Dew Point 5.8
Rel Humidity 98%

Wind (km/h):
Current Gust 27.0 S
Average Speed 24.5 S

Rainfall (mm):
Current rate 1.8
Last hour 0.0
Total today 6.1
Total yesterday 8.6
Total this month 14.7
Total this year 14.7

Pressure (mb):
Current 970.0
Trend (per hour) -1.7

Oops! Wrong thread! Sorry, reposted in current conditions

Rikand · 02-01-2014 11:35pm

Done

rameire · 02-01-2014 11:51pm

done,

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all.

Especially to M.T. Cranium for your constant work and interaction on boards.

Here's to a year full of normal and aby-normal weather.

dacogawa · 02-01-2014 11:56pm

FrDougalMcguire wrote: »

Current data for Charlestown Co. Mayo
02 January 2014 21:45:21

Temperature (°C):
Current 6.1
Trend (per hour) 0
Average today 4.7
Wind chill 2.0
Heat Index 6.1
Dew Point 5.8
Rel Humidity 98%

Wind (km/h):
Current Gust 27.0 S
Average Speed 24.5 S

Rainfall (mm):
Current rate 1.8
Last hour 0.0
Total today 6.1
Total yesterday 8.6
Total this month 14.7
Total this year 14.7

Pressure (mb):
Current 970.0
Trend (per hour) -1.7

Wrong thread there Dougal...

jd · 03-01-2014 12:02am

Done

nilhg · 03-01-2014 12:28am

done

delw · 03-01-2014 12:42am

done

traecy1 · 03-01-2014 12:51am

Done.

Danno · 03-01-2014 1:35am

4.2c, 13.7c, -8.9c, 120%, 110%, 76kt Malin Head.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2014 1:46am

Ah good, now Con Sensus has a serious challenge.

Saving anyone the trouble of reading all of post #1, there's an entry form there (but in this thread is okay too) and I postponed the usual deadline by one day so penalties only start tonight at 0300h. If you wait to see what the max gust is and enter after 0300, you'll be playing off 5/10 for the bonus unless you go higher than what is already known.

Good luck and ignore ppp in the emtry form, somebody is still adjusting to the new year apparently.

I am however MMMMTTTTCCCC in case that wasn't oblivious.

Melanoma · 03-01-2014 2:00am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Ah good, now Con Sensus has a serious challenge.

Saving anyone the trouble of reading all of post #1, there's an entry form there (but in this thread is okay too) and I postponed the usual deadline by one day so penalties only start tonight at 0300h. If you wait to see what the max gust is and enter after 0300, you'll be playing off 5/10 for the bonus unless you go higher than what is already known.

Good luck and ignore ppp in the emtry form, somebody is still adjusting to the new year apparently.

I am however MMMMTTTTCCCC in case that wasn't oblivious.

I'm paid to lead not to read!! No but serious doubts about my "prediction" more of a wild guess that more of the same but then change!

SeaFields · 03-01-2014 11:47pm

Crap! Forgot about it. Anyway, done!

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2014 7:15am

January 2014 forecasts
____________________________________________________

Forecaster _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max gust (kts)

seafields ___ (-10%) ____ 6.5 _ 13.5 _ -2.3 _ 200 _ 050 _ 65 Val
rikand ________________ 6.2 _ 13.5 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 080 _ 80 Mac
kindredspirit ___________ 6.2 _ 13.2 _ -4.7 _ 121 _ 091 _ 71 Mal
omicron _______________ 6.0 _ 13.0 _ -4.5 _ 120 _ 080 _ 72 Mac
Tae laidir ______________ 6.0 _ 11.6 _ -6.9 _ 120 _ 110 _ 66 Mac
melanoma _____________ 5.9 _ 15.1 _ -7.2 _ 101 _ 103 _ 78 Mal
DOCARCH _____________ 5.9 _ 12.9 _ -5.8 _ 115 _ 095 _ 76 Bel
homolumo _____________ 5.9 _ 12.1 _ -4.5 _ 120 _ 081 _ 75 Bel
nilhg _________________ 5.9 _ 11.2 _ -4.1 _ 135 _ 095 _ 75 Bel
mickger844posts ________ 5.8 _ 13.9 _ -3.1 _ 124 _ 080 _ 71 Bel
pauldry _______________ 5.8 _ 13.8 _ -6.0 _ 121 _ 098 _ 71 Mac
Rameire_______________ 5.7 _ 12.5 _ -5.5 _ 095 _ 102 _ 72 Mac
waterways_____________ 5.6 _ 13.2 _ -6.1 _ 133 _ 079 _ 79 Bel
john mac ______________ 5.6 _ 13.1 _ -5.6 _ 120 _ 098 _ 73 Mac
Bsal __________________ 5.5 _ 12.9 _ -4.2 _ 125 _ 088 _ 82 Roc

Con Sensus ____________ 5.5 _ 13.0 _ -5.4 _ 120 _ 090 _ 75 Bel

200motels _____________ 5.5 _ 12.2 _ -5.8 _ 145 _ 075 _ 60 Mal
Jpmarn________________ 5.4 _ 14.0 _ -8.2 _ 110 _ 105 _ 75 Mac
talkabout ______________ 5.4 _ 13.5 _ -5.8 _ 100 _ 090 _ 73 Mal
traecy.1 _______________ 5.4 _ 12.8 _ -5.5 _ 125 _ 095 _ 75 Bel
harps _________________ 5.1 _ 13.1 _ -5.6 _ 110 _ 090 _ 77 Bel
jd____________________ 5.1 _ 12.8 _ -5.4 _ 129 _ 094 _ 82 Bel
okla __________________ 5.1 _ 12.6 _ -5.2 _ 110 _ 090 _ 72 Bel
M.T. Cranium___________ 5.0 _ 13.3 _ -5.5 _ 130 _ 105 _ 91 Mac
dacogawa______________ 5.0 _ 12.0 _ -7.9 _ 142 _ 098 _ 82 Mac
Joe Public______________ 4.9 _ 12.9 _ -4.9 _ 110 _ 090 _ 79 Bel
delw __________________ 4.9 _ 12.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 089 _ 65 She
dasa29________________ 4.9 _ 12.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 65 Mac
danno_________________ 4.2 _ 13.7 _ -8.9 _ 120 _ 110 _ 76 Mal
octo __________________ 3.8 _ 13.5 _ -2.0 _ 105 _ 100 _ 65 Mal

_____________________________________________

The group consensus is for a rather mild, wet and dull month, strongest winds either Belmullet or Mace Head.

Good luck, check your entry.

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2014 7:49pm

After one week or seven days of January we have these values:

IMT at 6.2

MAX at 13.2 (Shannon, 5th)

MIN to be determined

PRC 170%

SUN 103%

bonus 72 kts Mace Head on 3rd

M.T. Cranium · 15-01-2014 3:14pm

Updates after 2 weeks or 14 days ...

IMT at 5.3

MAX at 13.2 (Shannon, 5th)

MIN at -3.2 (Moorepark, 14th)

PRC 146%

SUN 121%

bonus still 72 kts Mace Head on 3rd

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2014 2:17pm

Update after 21 days (three weeks) ...

IMT now at 5.2 C

PRC at 126% after a somewhat drier week that averaged 86% of normal.

SUN about the same at 122% with the past week near 125%.

Any suggestions for Feb bonus question?

dacogawa · 22-01-2014 5:35pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Any suggestions for Feb bonus question?

Coldest place on Valentines day or warmest

?

Tae laidir · 22-01-2014 7:12pm

Bonus Q suggestion:
Predict the the Station with the Highest PRC as % of normal of any Met Éireann station.
10 Points for wettest guess.
8 Points for 2nd wettest guess.
6 Points for 3rd wettest guess.
5 Points
4 Points
Etc.

Melanoma · 22-01-2014 7:46pm

Predict the longest time without precipitation at any station.
Predict the longest period of precipitation.
predict the longest time without recorded sunshine.

pauldry · 22-01-2014 7:53pm

Melanoma wrote: »

Predict the longest time without precipitation at any station.
Predict the longest period of precipitation.
predict the longest time without recorded sunshine.

Longest time without rain in January in Sligo has been about 20 hours and I'm not joking

Feb bonus name a date snow will fall

Bonus for correct date
If numerous dates snowiest wins
Scoreback from date

If no snow 5 points for all

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2014 8:46pm

Thanks, I like all of those and will try to use them in different months if not this month.

I have to be careful to choose a question that won't generate answers in the period 1-4 of any given month as this creates scoring issues and what if something happens on the first before half the field show up to read the contest? So I would avoid snowfall date questions if I thought it might snow on the first, second or third for example. Same with windstorm questions, model output showing huge windstorms on the first or second would cause me to avoid that kind of bonus question.

Today I am carefully studying some instructions I got from our off-forum friend (the form guy, SB was his name) about how to edit the google form myself, so far he's been doing all that on my requests. I notice that there is a Feb form now ready to use, once I edit in the bonus questions. Hopefully this will be self-explanatory as I am not as familiar with google templates as let's say excel forms or yahoo e-mail. I blog through wordpress rather than google but I have a google e-mail address now from the work being done on the IWO facebook website.

By the way, if you didn't already know this, I post my boards forecasts over on facebook at Irish Weather Online, the site has become a mecca for weather photographers and there are some familiar "faces" over there too (I don't do much more than drop in once a day with my forecast and sometimes a few edited photo displays from the e-mail site).

Well then, all we really need now is some weather, we seem to have everything else a weather forum would need.

Okay, I think I have successfully done that to the form (ooooh) for Valentines' Day (aaaah). Go to post #1 of this thread, click on the link for entry to JAN and now you should see FEB, let me know if you see what I see (baby). Love is in the air. (something has to be cuz there's no wx).

dacogawa · 23-01-2014 2:12am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Okay, I think I have successfully done that to the form (ooooh) for Valentines' Day (aaaah). Go to post #1 of this thread, click on the link for entry to JAN and now you should see FEB, let me know if you see what I see (baby). Love is in the air. (something has to be cuz there's no wx).

Yes, February up there you old romantic

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2014 3:07am

After four weeks, with three days to go (I'm a bit late gathering this, through 28th ...)

IMT now up to 5.5 C

PRC at 153% after a wet week that averaged 237% of normal.

SUN has dimmed to 113% after a duller week (76%).

Not sure when the MS might start to include Malin Head and Knock in the sunshine, I have not been factoring them in but they appear quite regularly in the Ag Summaries now.

Also, probably can't fully score the contest until Monday 3rd Feb (evening) but I will post a provisional summary based on what I do have available, then correct it (hopefully not by much) when the official data appear.

The February contest is open for your entries.

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2014 8:35pm

IMT finished on 5.4 C, look for the rest of the stats on Monday with scoring to follow.

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2014 8:06pm

January final report:

IMT was 5.4 C

MAX 13.4 at Shannon on 5th

MIN --3.8 at Moorepark on 11th

PRC 158% of normal

SUN 115% of normal

Max wind gust 72 knots at Mace Head on 3rd

Scoring underway, check back after 8 p.m.

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2014 8:54pm

Scoring for January 2014
____________________________________________________

Forecaster _____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Max gust (loc)

Confirmed values ______ 5.4_13.4_--3.8_158_115_72 Mac ____ TOTAL

Bsal __________________24 _ 15 _ 16 _ 10*_ 05 _ 4 0 ________ 74
omicron _______________19 _ 16 _ 13 _ 09*_ 03 _ 8 2 ________ 70
mickger844posts ________21 _ 15 _ 13 _ 10*_ 03 _ 7 0 ________ 69
rikand ________________ 17 _ 19 _ 13 _ 10*_ 03 _ 4 2 ________ 68
kindredspirit ___________ 17 _ 18 _ 11 _ 09*_ 05 _ 7 0 ________ 67
john mac ______________23 _ 17 _ 02 _ 09*_ 07 _ 7 2 ________ 67

Con Sensus ____________ 24 _ 16 _ 04 _ 09*_ 05 _ 6 0 ________ 64

traecy.1 _______________25 _ 14 _ 03 _ 09*_ 06 _ 6 0 ________ 63
M.T. Cranium___________ 21 _ 19 _ 03 _ 10*_ 08 _ 0 2 ________ 63
pauldry _______________ 21 _ 16 _ 00 _ 09*_ 07 _ 7 2 ________ 62
Jpmarn________________ 25 _ 14 _ 00 _ 06*_ 08 _ 6 2 ________ 61
dasa29________________ 20 _ 06 _ 18 _ 03*_ 07 _ 5 2 ________ 61
Joe Public______________ 20 _ 15 _ 09 _ 06*_ 05 _ 5 0 ________ 60
jd____________________ 22 _ 14 _ 04 _ 10*_ 06 _ 4 0 ________ 60
nilhg __________________20 _ 00 _ 17 _ 11*_ 06 _ 6 0 ________ 60
waterways_____________ 23 _ 18 _ 00 _ 11*_ 03 _ 5 0 ________ 60
talkabout ______________ 25 _ 19 _ 00 _ 03*_ 05 _ 7 0 ________ 59
okla __________________ 22 _ 12 _ 06 _ 06*_ 05 _ 8 0 ________ 59
homolumo _____________ 20 _ 07 _ 13 _ 09*_ 03 _ 6 0 ________ 58
harps _________________ 22 _ 17 _ 02 _ 06*_ 05 _ 5 0 ________ 57
danno_________________ 13 _ 17 _ 00 _ 09*_ 09 _ 6 0 ________ 54
DOCARCH _____________ 20 _ 15 _ 00 _ 07*_ 06 _ 6 0 ________ 54
Rameire_______________ 22 _ 11 _ 03 _ 01*_ 07 _ 8 2 ________ 54
dacogawa______________ 21 _ 06 _ 00 _ 12*_ 07 _ 4 2 ________ 52
200motels _____________ 24 _ 08 _ 00 _ 13*_ 02 _ 3 0 ________ 50
octo __________________ 09 _ 19 _ 02 _ 04*_ 08 _ 5 0 ________ 47
Tae laidir ______________ 19 _ 02 _ 00 _ 09*_ 09 _ 5 2 ________ 46
delw __________________ 20 _ 06 _ 02 _ 06*_ 05 _ 5 0 ________ 44
seafields ___ (-10%) ____ 14 _ 19 _ 05 _ 07*_ 00 _ 5 0 __ 50-10=40
melanoma _____________ 20 _ 03 _ 00 _ 03*_ 08 _ 5 0 ________ 39

______________________________________________

* Rainfall (PRC) scores needed a boost from the minimum progression rule.

In general, January was a higher than normal scoring bonanza although nobody went super high, congrats to Bsal, omicron and mickger844posts for leading the pack, many scores into the 60s right behind them.

January 2014 Boards forecast contest

Comments