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United Ireland discussion thread

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    #122
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,642 ✭✭✭eire4


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    No. Recent polls show that an Indy Ref would not pass. Albeit with a reduced majority

    In fact we are both wrong strictly speaking. I should have said a recent poll rather then using the word polls. The recent Lord Ashcroft poll showed 46-43 in favour of independence. The recent Sunday Times and You Gov polls were 46-47 against and 43-44 against. IMHO if brexit goes ahead one of its consequences will be Scotland will vote for independence and look to rejoin the EU.


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    #123
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    eire4 wrote: »
    In fact we are both wrong strictly speaking. I should have said a recent poll rather then using the word polls. The recent Lord Ashcroft poll showed 46-43 in favour of independence. The recent Sunday Times and You Gov polls were 46-47 against and 43-44 against. IMHO if brexit goes ahead one of its consequences will be Scotland will vote for independence and look to rejoin the EU.

    Well Ashcroft is an outlier. All other polls - 10 - this year indicate that a ref would be defeated. But looking at the trend, I think you're right. Brexit will only push people closer to independence.


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    #124
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,642 ✭✭✭eire4


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Well Ashcroft is an outlier. All other polls - 10 - this year indicate that a ref would be defeated. But looking at the trend, I think you're right. Brexit will only push people closer to independence.

    Yes it was the trend I was looking at and I really do think that one of the consequences of brexit if it actually happens will be Scottish independence.


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    #125
    Godot.
    Registered Users Posts: 528 ✭✭✭Godot.


    In the parallel world where the 7 Sinn Fein MPs took their seats at Westminister, who would be leading for them in the Commons?


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    #126
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,566 ✭✭✭✭briany


    eire4 wrote: »
    In fact we are both wrong strictly speaking. I should have said a recent poll rather then using the word polls. The recent Lord Ashcroft poll showed 46-43 in favour of independence. The recent Sunday Times and You Gov polls were 46-47 against and 43-44 against. IMHO if brexit goes ahead one of its consequences will be Scotland will vote for independence and look to rejoin the EU.

    The last thing Scotland needs, in the wake of the division of Brexit, is to then have its own Brexit where Leave wins by a slim majority and the country becomes subject to years of infighting. You can guaran-damn-tee that Scottish Unionists will not go quietly into the night.


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    #127
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    briany wrote: »
    The last thing Scotland needs, in the wake of the division of Brexit, is to then have its own Brexit where Leave wins by a slim majority and the country becomes subject to years of infighting. You can guaran-damn-tee that Scottish Unionists will not go quietly into the night.

    Things have really disimproved for Scotland since 2014. Neither choice offered to the people of Scotland in their first independance referendum is still on the table. They can't have their ideal independance scenario which would see both an independant Scotland and rUK as members of the EU, thus ensuring that the economic relationship between an independant Scotland and rUK remains essentially unchanged. They also don't have the other choice, the status quo of remaining part of the UK within the EU.

    I don't think comparing Scottish independance to Brexit is a valid comparrision to make. Brexit is toxic because the version of Brexit we are getting will seriously alter the UKs economic relationship with the EU for the worse. Scottish independance was not aimed at altering the economic relationship between Scotland and rUK, indeed the ideal independance scenario would have seen that economic relationship remain essentally unchanged. Independance was focused on chainging the political relationship, and anyone who sees how the SNP are treated in Westmnster can sympathise with that desire. Scottish independance as proposed in 2014 would have given Scotland have the same political and economic relationship with rUK as the UK currently enjoys with the rest of the EU.

    This is a moot point now. Neither the status quo nor the ideal independance scenario as presented in 2014 are available as options to the Scottish people, so the question is now what option comes in third place? Independance and membership of the EU but without rUK in the EU, or remaining part of the UK as it goes through a hard Brexit? Neither will be easy, both will damage Scotland economicly. Personally, I would go for for independance in their case. We in Ireland have that same choice. We could leave the EU with the UK, avoiding any problem with the border in the process, and link our future to hard Brexit UK. For largely the same reasons that we would never take that option, the people of Scotland should get out of the UK as soon as they possibly can.


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    #128
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,642 ✭✭✭eire4


    briany wrote: »
    The last thing Scotland needs, in the wake of the division of Brexit, is to then have its own Brexit where Leave wins by a slim majority and the country becomes subject to years of infighting. You can guaran-damn-tee that Scottish Unionists will not go quietly into the night.


    I disagree. The last thing Scotland needs is to be further isolated and exposed to a London government which does not govern or rule in a manner that most Scots agree with hence why the Tory party has been a complete after thought in Scotland for so long.

    The irony is during the last independence referendum when it looked like there was chance the Scots might vote yes London pulled the you will be out of the EU and not get back in card late on and here we are now and it is the English who have turned around and voted the Scots out of the EU against the wishes of most Scots.

    Sure there will be some Scots not happy if Scotland votes to leave but I do not see the kind of division happening in Scotland as you are in England. In the end we will likely all find out as a second independence referendum seems very much to be where Scotland is heading if and when brexit actually happens.


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    #129
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    The FT getting on the "not right now" bandwagon:
    The Financial Times wrote:
    I’ve come back from three recent trips to Ireland marvelling: this is what a grown-up country looks like. A giant, potentially divisive issue comes along — the sudden prospect of a united Ireland, a republican dream since long before Irish partition in 1921 — and instead of treating it as a winner-take-all, biff-bang argument as in certain countries one could mention, almost all Irish seem determined to move slowly, seriously and fairly. How to reassure mostly Protestant Unionists in Northern Ireland, who for generations have identified as British? I’ve seen a hall full of Irish people applaud a woman urging them “to be open and inclusive to Unionists”. The 4.8 million Irish in the Republic and 1.9 million in Northern Ireland still face a scary decade. Irish unification could revive the north’s violent Troubles. But blessedly, most Irish people realise that...

    https://www.ft.com/content/86cc29f6-05a5-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca


    ---

    Thankfully us Irish can see the potential problems eh? Mon dieu!


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    #130
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    The FT getting on the "not right now" bandwagon:



    https://www.ft.com/content/86cc29f6-05a5-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca


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    Thankfully us Irish can see the potential problems eh? Mon dieu!

    Brexit in itself is a bad idea. There are those who view unification in the same light, they think it is a bad idea which when looked at objectivly is something that should not be done. I disagree with that, but those that hold that viewpoint are entitled to their opinion.

    Those who compare unification to Brexit tend to do so in the sence that x is a bad idea and therefore it should not be done. Thats a fair point, but the bigger issue for me when it comes to a comparrision with Brexit is not if but how. Brexit is a bad idea, but it could have been delt with so much better. The UK could have gone for a careful, soft Brexit which would have caused only limited damage and prevented the whole issue turning into the crisis it has become. That is where we should be learning a lesson. We must to admit, whichever side you are on, that unification is a big deal, it is complicated, it will be difficult and we have to be careful with it. We must plan, we must have an open and honest disussion about it and if after doing this we decide to go ahead with it, we must do so carefully.

    Democracy must be respected and even if a unification referendum is won by a narrow margin, the verdict must be implemented. How it is implemented is key, we cannot have a slim majority being used to rush through a hardline approch. It has to be slow, thoughtful and there will have to be compromise on all sides. The threat of violence from one quarter cannot be allowed to derail the process, but the legitimate concerns of all parties must be taken into acount, we can't have peoples lives or livelihoods destroyed because of it. We can't have real problems ignored creating a crisis where none need exist.


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    #131
    trashcan
    Registered Users Posts: 3,918 ✭✭✭trashcan


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    The FT getting on the "not right now" bandwagon:



    https://www.ft.com/content/86cc29f6-05a5-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca


    ---

    Thankfully us Irish can see the potential problems eh? Mon dieu!

    How could a United Ireland have been a Republican dream since long before Partition ?


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