Property Market 2019

Graham · 01-11-2019 11:48am

Dolbhad wrote: »

I wanted to go with AIB or BOI as just from the news you don’t hear of them offloading to vulture funds as much as PTSB or Ulster Bank.

Done most banks use some for of bundling/securitisation for their long-term loans?

Or are you referring to the bundling and selling off of non-performing loans?

riclad · 01-11-2019 1:59pm

I read in the times newspaper ,after 2008, the banks sold property to
vulture funds, as there was no one in ireland who had the money or who wanted to buy 1000,s of apartments and house,s .maybe they could have sold some units to the local authority .
They have shareholders they have to get the best price they can in the market.
I think prices, started to fall in the last few months,
https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/property-dublin-houses-rent-price-17003426

i would not buy a house now, i,d wait for 6-9 months to see the effect of brexit on the economy.

Wanderer78 · 01-11-2019 2:03pm

riclad wrote:

I read in the times newspaper ,after 2008, the banks sold property to vulture funds, as there was no one in ireland who had the money or who wanted to buy 1000,s of apartments and house,s .maybe they could have sold some units to the local authority . They have shareholders they have to get the best price they can in the market. I think prices, started to fall in the last few months,

The wealth created from such activities trickles down, so I certainly wouldn't worry about it

Mic 1972 · 01-11-2019 2:40pm

Cyrus wrote: »

are you looking at asking prices folks or achieved selling prices per PPR

Asking prices are on the decrease according to official reports, which means selling prices are decreasing too

Cyrus · 01-11-2019 2:58pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices are on the decrease according to official reports, which means selling prices are decreasing too

not necessarily no.

Mad_maxx · 01-11-2019 3:00pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The last 3 years looks like a very wide time frame, prices are higher than 3 years ago everywhere on Ireland
IF you look at trends in the last few months you will see the decrease

No other city comes close to Limerick in terms of increase this past three years

Compak · 01-11-2019 3:03pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices are on the decrease according to official reports, which means selling prices are decreasing too

Depends where you look and type of house.

The two new estates near us have both increased the price of next release of houses from what they sold for for before the summer.

Nominal enough at ~1% but still that's €5000 which is not pocket change.

Bob24 · 01-11-2019 3:06pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices are on the decrease according to official reports, which means selling prices are decreasing too

In the short to medium term, asking prices going one direction doesn’t automatically mean selling prices are going the same direction. It can also be things like sellers changing strategy. Of course if it becomes a consistent long term and pronounced trend, then yes there is a correlation.

I am not making a call either way in this particular case, but just pointing out this is an incorrect inference.

Mic 1972 · 01-11-2019 5:18pm

if selling prices start to decrease then asking price will follow, this is the logic of every market

Cyrus · 01-11-2019 5:23pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

if selling prices start to decrease then asking price will follow, this is the logic of every market

asking prices follow selling prices up and will be ahead of them, they will eventually outrun them but thats not to say achieved prices will fall by a significant amount in the short term.

Mic 1972 · 01-11-2019 5:29pm

Cyrus wrote: »

asking prices follow selling prices up and will be ahead of them, they will eventually outrun them but thats not to say achieved prices will fall by a significant amount in the short term.

But if the asking prices have decreased that is evidence that the selling prices have decreased too
the sale agencies will quickly update the asking price as soon as sales start picking up again, clearly it hasn't happened

Cyrus · 01-11-2019 5:35pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

But if the asking prices have decreased that is evidence that the selling prices have decreased too
the sale agencies will quickly update the asking price as soon as sales start picking up again, clearly it hasn't happened

the only evidence is from the PPR, everything else is speculation. Achieved sales prices are what you need to look at.

Mic 1972 · 01-11-2019 5:48pm

what's your assumption here? Asking prices going up while asking prices are going down? not going to happen ;-)

Cyrus · 01-11-2019 5:53pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

what's your assumption here? Asking prices going up while asking prices are going down? not going to happen ;-)

the only one making assumptions is you, as i said the only actual evidence is achieved selling prices.

Mic 1972 · 01-11-2019 5:56pm

you didnt answer the question, what is the assumption you are making with this argument? it's unclear if you are assuming Asking prices are going up

Cyrus · 01-11-2019 6:12pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you didnt answer the question, what is the assumption you are making with this argument? it's unclear if you are assuming Asking prices are going up

there is nothing to answer, i am not assuming anything as i dont need to, there are hard facts available.

i said your assumption that falling asking prices meaning prices are decreasing may not be correct.

Mic 1972 · 01-11-2019 6:15pm

Cyrus wrote: »

there is nothing to answer, i am not assuming anything as i dont need to, there are hard facts available.

i said your assumption that falling asking prices meaning prices are decreasing may not be correct.

Are there official reports on Selling Price? i couldn't find any I'd love to see them

duffman13 · 01-11-2019 6:21pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you didnt answer the question, what is the assumption you are making with this argument? it's unclear if you are assuming Asking prices are going up

Your the only person assuming anything, your assuming lower asking prices are equal lower selling prices being achieved. You've no way of proving that, I see your logic, it's just not necessarily true

Cyrus · 01-11-2019 7:30pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Are there official reports on Selling Price? i couldn't find any I'd love to see them

All data you need is in the property price register

Brussels Sprout · 01-11-2019 9:31pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The wealth created from such activities trickles down, so I certainly wouldn't worry about it

Pretty sure the trickle down theory of economics was debunked as a scam for rich people to pay less tax a long time ago.

riclad · 01-11-2019 9:46pm

https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2019q3-dafthouseprice

price are going down, it maybe a few per cent depending where you live.
I think its due to the threat of brexit,
and maybe supply is catching up with demand in dublin .
Also there s a limited amount of people who can pay 200-250k for a house.

01-11-2019 10:49pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Are there official reports on Selling Price? i couldn't find any I'd love to see them

The property price register records every (I think?) house sold in the country. You can download all the data.

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/pprweb.nsf/PPR?OpenForm

Bob24 · 01-11-2019 11:11pm

Noah Scruffy Kale wrote: »

The property price register records every (I think?) house sold in the country. You can download all the data.

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/pprweb.nsf/PPR?OpenForm

Yep - although it is good to know that there can be a bit of a lag. There is a property next to my place which I was following and I know when sale agreed in January. I was keeping checking the the register for it to see the price, and it only came up a few weeks ago with a selling date of May. This is Because it took 4-5 months for the buyer and seller to complete the sale after going sale agreed, and presumably it took unusually long for the information about the sale to go from the solicitors to the government (I think such a long delay is unusual, but it regularily takes 2+ months between the time the sale is closed and when it shows on the register).

The the register should probably be seen as an idea of the average market in the past couple of months rather than an instant capture of the situation.

And to go back to prices, even with the register it is hard to get a definite idea of what's going on, because it doesn't document the type of property being sold. So technically the average selling price on the register could go up while the average price per square meter is going down (if the property being sold are for some reason getting larger and larger). Or another case where it can be misleading is that if a whole apartment block is being sold as a single transaction, this could be a single line on the register with a price of over 100 million euros (see an example here - it is impossible to treat that data automatically, and even manually is a problem as there us a mix of residential and commercial units with no obvious way to distribute the total price). More or less of these transactions can drastically influence average selling prices in a way which is misleading.

Mic 1972 · 02-11-2019 1:39am

The Property register does not provide any report, it's just raw data. you will have to compile your own data base over a consistent number of months in order to build a sales report and highlight any trend. Alternatively you have the Asking Price report from Daft ready to use out of the box.
Asking price is a direct reflection of the market trend, if sales go down the asking price will too otherwise overpriced properties won't sell, it's very basic logic

q85dw7osi4lebg · 02-11-2019 2:26am

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The Property register does not provide any report, it's just raw data. you will have to compile your own data base over a consistent number of months in order to build a sales report and highlight any trend. Alternatively you have the Asking Price report from Daft ready to use out of the box.
Asking price is a direct reflection of the market trend, if sales go down the asking price will too otherwise overpriced properties won't sell, it's very basic logic

Asking price literally has no correlation to sales price.

Cyrus · 02-11-2019 8:15am

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The Property register does not provide any report, it's just raw data. you will have to compile your own data base over a consistent number of months in order to build a sales report and highlight any trend. Alternatively you have the Asking Price report from Daft ready to use out of the box.
Asking price is a direct reflection of the market trend, if sales go down the asking price will too otherwise overpriced properties won't sell, it's very basic logic

You don’t want to listen to logic or do your own analysis

Bdjsjsjs · 02-11-2019 9:14am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Pretty sure the trickle down theory of economics was debunked as a scam for rich people to pay less tax a long time ago.

No one believes in trickle down economics. Even Ronald Reagan or Thatcher or Milton Friedman. It's basically a red herring.

Mic 1972 · 02-11-2019 11:03am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Asking price literally has no correlation to sales price.

sorry that's just non sense

Bob24 · 02-11-2019 11:17am

Mic 1972 wrote: »

sorry that's just non sense

It sounds like you don't want to be convinced, but here is a simple example of why selling prices can't be simply inferred from asking prices:
- in a depressed market, sellers will tend to set asking prices close and possibly slightly higher to the selling price they expect, because they know interest will be limited and every buyer will try to negotiate the price regardless of how high or low it was set.
- in a booming market, sellers will tend to set asking prices significantly below the selling price they expect, as they know there will be mad competition anyway and they want to attract as many bidder as possible into a bidding war.

The_Conductor · 02-11-2019 11:45am

Bobs right- and his explanation is spot on.
It is a direct correlation- however, its a correlation that migrates with the market.
I.e. the nature of the correlation changes at different stages in the property market cycle- and I'd also suggest that the correlation differs across different regional markets- which don't tend to be in sync with one another.

Anyhow, trying to use it to prove cause and effect, as it relates to a single property- simply doesn't work- you have to look at the market as a whole.

Mic 1972 · 02-11-2019 11:46am

Bob24 wrote: »

It sounds like you don't want to be convinced, but here is a simple example of why selling prices can't be simply inferred from asking prices:
- in a depressed market, sellers will tend to set asking prices close and possibly slightly higher to the selling price they expect, because they know interest will be limited and every buyer will try to negotiate the price regardless of how high or low it was set.
- in a booming market, sellers will tend to set asking prices significantly below the selling price they expect, as they know they will be mad competition anyway and they want to attract as many bidder as possible into a bidding war.

These are not examples, there are assumptions
- In a booming markets sellers will set high asking prices to maximize profit
- in a depressed market asking prices will gradually decrease in order for sales to keep happening

the evidence to this is in the historical data for the last few years, during the property crash the asking prices were decreasing, not the other way around
Asking price and Sale price are not the same thing but they follow the same trend, it's Supply and Demand logic

Mic 1972 · 02-11-2019 11:50am

The_Conductor wrote: »

Bobs right- and his explanation is spot on.
It is a direct correlation- however, its a correlation that migrates with the market.
I.e. the nature of the correlation changes at different stages in the property market cycle- and I'd also suggest that the correlation differs across different regional markets- which don't tend to be in sync with one another.

Anyhow, trying to use it to prove cause and effect, as it relates to a single property- simply doesn't work- you have to look at the market as a whole.

That was my point entirely, correlation does exists and yes, you can't talk about trend by looking at individual properties
So, going back to where this conversation began, the asking prices are showing sings of a drop which means that the market has slowed down.Llonger wait to close a sale and lower selling prices

beauf · 02-11-2019 12:04pm

You all know places where the final price was well above the asking price. Also places where they are asking far more than it's worth. I know one that's about 100k over a realistic price.

Some people are stubborn. Isn't this the reason the price register was set up in the first place.

There is a relationship with asking prices but it's very in accurate Vs achieved prices. It's it enough to establish a general trend. Certainly with enough data over time.

Mic 1972 · 02-11-2019 1:51pm

beauf wrote: »

You all know places where the final price was well above the asking price. Also places where they are asking far more than it's worth. I know one that's about 100k over a realistic price.

There is a relationship with asking prices but it's very in accurate Vs achieved prices. It's it enough to establish a general trend. Certainly with enough data over time.

Again, looking at individual properties is useless for the sake of data analysis
Asking price wont tell you how much properties actually sell for, that's a given.
It will however tell you a lot about the status of the market, more than any other personal story of people who know someone who heard something

if the only source of actual sales data is the property register then there is never going to be any accurate reporting on it, because sales are registered several months after initial agreement and the register doesn't indicate property type and number of beds

beauf · 02-11-2019 5:23pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Again, looking at individual properties is useless for the sake of data analysis
...

That's not what my comment was saying. You've just selectively quoted to change the meaning. The point is we all know places which are way off the general trend. In both directions. So we know it's not accurate. That just obvious.

That said it's not useless to look at specific properties. People are generally looking at the difference of a specific property Vs the market trend. Also some properties maybe buck the general trend in with direction due to something specific. Location, location location. Which is why two almost identical places on the same street can be different prices. Which is why you generally need to have some local knowledge to judge prices.

There isn't one black and white answer to all this.

Cyrus · 02-11-2019 7:50pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Again, looking at individual properties is useless for the sake of data analysis
Asking price wont tell you how much properties actually sell for, that's a given.
It will however tell you a lot about the status of the market, more than any other personal story of people who know someone who heard something

if the only source of actual sales data is the property register then there is never going to be any accurate reporting on it, because sales are registered several months after initial agreement and the register doesn't indicate property type and number of beds

Someone has done all the work for you already

https://thepropertypin.com/t/the-pretty-charts-thread/47913/311

Mic 1972 · 02-11-2019 8:32pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Someone has done all the work for you already

https://thepropertypin.com/t/the-pretty-charts-thread/47913/311

Thank you, that 's excellent data
The correlation between asking and selling prices is striking, the asking prices basically replicates the selling price trend with a delay of about 1 quarter

Bigmac1euro · 02-11-2019 11:18pm

At the moment people seem to be getting just about asking price, in the area I’m looking anyway.
A search of a particular area on PPR and a google job brings you to the daft ad seems to reflects this.
Good signs. Hopefully the market slowly levels off and dips a little. Was becoming madness there for a while. Hopefully I’ll be in just about a good enough position come July.

Bob24 · 03-11-2019 10:15am

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

At the moment people seem to be getting just about asking price, in the area I’m looking anyway.

Same in my area. 2 years ago 10 or even 20% above asking was very common. Doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.

Dolbhad · 03-11-2019 10:38am

Bob24 wrote: »

Same in my area. 2 years ago 10 or even 20% above asking was very common. Doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.

It’s the same in my areas. However asking is up from the last two years ago also so in the end the houses are still going for more than last year. I’m in Cork and it’s very pricey but haven’t hit the wall yet as Dublin seems to have.

Bob24 · 03-11-2019 11:31am

Dolbhad wrote: »

However asking is up from the last two years ago also so in the end the houses are still going for more than last year.

Yep, same thing here. High demand area in Dublin. I think rents are still rising however, although they already are at stratospheric levels - more or less double the pre-recession peak.

The_Conductor · 03-11-2019 11:44am

Bob24 wrote: »

Yep, same thing here. High demand area in Dublin. I think rents are still rising however, although they already are at stratospheric levels - more or less double the pre-recession peak.

In a Dublin context rental supply is rising- and landlords are increasingly likely to forego their 4% per annum rent rise- as tenants are finding it easier to up sticks and move if they feel they are paying over the odds. The only reason that Dublin rents still seem to be rising- is the large number of very high price units under the control of REITs that are hitting the market (with the prospect of more over the next 3-4 years).

I'm not sure if supply side issues are resolving in a similar manner in other cities- I suspect not- though I do know there are units coming onstream in Cork.

The current price rises for renters- are REIT driven- the market as a whole has hit a more stable patch (at least partially stable, because its hit the maximum that people can actually afford to spend on rent).

Keep in mind- salaries are no longer rising here- as was the case for much of the last decade. Salaries have hit a plateau- they're not falling- but they're also certainly not increasing.

We're in an interesting time- where various factors are coming to play in the various sectors, moderating the historic (as in over the last 10 years) trends.

leahyl · 03-11-2019 11:53am

Why are new builds so expensive? I’ve looked at all the new builds in Cork city suburbs and most of them start at around 285k and just go up from there - this is for a 3 bed terraced house, not even a 3 bed semi. I can’t afford that :-( then the second hand houses, supply isn’t there. If they are in good condition, you’re talking high 200k also, if not, then you’d have to be putting 50k into them to make them liveable. It’s so frustrating.

Dolbhad · 03-11-2019 12:02pm

leahyl wrote: »

Why are new builds so expensive? I’ve looked at all the new builds in Cork city suburbs and most of them start at around 285k and just go up from there - this is for a 3 bed terraced house, not even a 3 bed semi. I can’t afford that :-( then the second hand houses, supply isn’t there. If they are in good condition, you’re talking high 200k also, if not, then you’d have to be putting 50k into them to make them liveable. It’s so frustrating.

A number of reasons. Building regulations are to a very high standard to get an A3 rating and regulations are only increasing. That eats into their margin.Then with 10% of the estate having to be given over the local authority at cost price, I have always assumed that gets passed over the buyers to make up the difference. Lastly it’s a well known fact the minute HTB came in, new builds increased in line with that.

The only 3 bed new build semi’s in Cork I have seen here in Cobh, Little Island and Watergrasshill and your looking at 270-280k mark anyway. I’ve seen some new builds over the 300k and they have oil and not even air to water.

We were looking last year in the 200-300k bracket in Cork and it was a disaster. It’s the most competitive market in Cork and houses are very overpriced in that bargain when second hand. We decided to take a break for 6 months, move in with parents and save as much as we could to increase our deposit to get us above the 300k bracket. Now back to house viewings etc but a bit better value for money.

Dolbhad · 03-11-2019 12:05pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Yep, same thing here. High demand area in Dublin. I think rents are still rising however, although they already are at stratospheric levels - more or less double the pre-recession peak.

I know a lot of REITs are buying as they can set the bar high in terms of rent for first time. I’ve heard of people buying property through pension companies now working the returns on the rent now. However makes me wonder what happens when rents do go down. They can’t keep rising at this pace. Ireland has never been able to get the property cycle correct and we tend to have a lot of booms and bust.

Bob24 · 03-11-2019 12:08pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

In a Dublin context rental supply is rising- and landlords are increasingly likely to forego their 4% per annum rent rise- as tenants are finding it easier to up sticks and move if they feel they are paying over the odds. The only reason that Dublin rents still seem to be rising- is the large number of very high price units under the control of REITs that are hitting the market (with the prospect of more over the next 3-4 years).

I was only referring to my local market (Grand Canal Dock) which isn’t necessarily representative of the overall city.

There is what you are saying with new developments fully owned by the original developer or a REIT and which are bringing a good quantity of new apartments to the market at very high prices (3000-4500 per month for a 2 beds).

But I don’t think the rental market for “old” builds (which means late 90s to mid 2000s in that market) is stagnating. The pace of increase might have reduced a bit but I think rents are still increasing. In the developments I am familiar with, I see apartments which would have fetched 1600-1800 per month when they were brand new and considered luxurious just before the recession now easily going for 3000-3500 (at the very worst time of the recession, I believe those would have gone for 1000-1200).

leahyl · 03-11-2019 12:16pm

Dolbhad wrote: »

A number of reasons. Building regulations are to a very high standard to get an A3 rating and regulations are only increasing. That eats into their margin.Then with 10% of the estate having to be given over the local authority at cost price, I have always assumed that gets passed over the buyers to make up the difference. Lastly it’s a well known fact the minute HTB came in, new builds increased in line with that.

The only 3 bed new build semi’s in Cork I have seen here in Cobh, Little Island and Watergrasshill and your looking at 270-280k mark anyway. I’ve seen some new builds over the 300k and they have oil and not even air to water.

We were looking last year in the 200-300k bracket in Cork and it was a disaster. It’s the most competitive market in Cork and houses are very overpriced in that bargain when second hand. We decided to take a break for 6 months, move in with parents and save as much as we could to increase our deposit to get us above the 300k bracket. Now back to house viewings etc but a bit better value for money.

Well, I’ve been living at home, never been out of home and have saving for the guts of 10years so have a nice deposit but still can’t afford what these houses are going for - I could spend all my deposit on one and then have nothing left to furnish it alright .... :-( I really am banking on there being some sort of a drop in prices...it’s much harder when you’re single, only one income.

Cyrus · 03-11-2019 12:39pm

leahyl wrote: »

Well, I’ve been living at home, never been out of home and have saving for the guts of 10years so have a nice deposit but still can’t afford what these houses are going for - I could spend all my deposit on one and then have nothing left to furnish it alright .... :-( I really am banking on there being some sort of a drop in prices...it’s much harder when you’re single, only one income.

Am I reading it correctly? You are trying to buy a 3 bed a rated house but you are on your own?

The reason it’s difficult is because you are trying to buy something aimed at families

Dolbhad · 03-11-2019 12:42pm

leahyl wrote: »

Well, I’ve been living at home, never been out of home and have saving for the guts of 10years so have a nice deposit but still can’t afford what these houses are going for - I could spend all my deposit on one and then have nothing left to furnish it alright .... :-( I really am banking on there being some sort of a drop in prices...it’s much harder when you’re single, only one income.

We may have a drop in the second hand market but I don’t expect in the new builds. Esp as I’ve seen new builds go up 20k between phases in Cork. And more regulations due in the next few months. If builders see a lag in prices, they will slow down on building and supply until it picks up again.

We have to save as much as we can because we aren’t high earners so the 3.5x salary restricts us. We are lucky we can get an exemption and there are two of us.

It is really difficult to buy as a sole applicant unless your earning an above average wage. I’ve seen friends of mine buy with siblings as they couldn’t buy alone. Those who have bought alone have have made more than myself and my partner combined.

I haven’t come across any affordable housing in Cork in a long time and it’s well overdue. The only exception has been the LIHAF scheme with the new builds in Ballinganna in Glanmire. They are the first of the LIHAF scheme in the country so some houses were eligible for an extra 20k off (plus the HTB). However they still start in the 300k range. Another new build site eligible for LIHAF is due for Whitechurch but haven’t heard anymore on that.

Cyrus wrote: »

Am I reading it correctly? You are trying to buy a 3 bed a rated house but you are on your own?

The reason it’s difficult is because you are trying to buy something aimed at families

Also in Cork, you don’t have a wide choice of apartments to choose from which would be cheaper. And some banks require a 20% when buying a one bed apartment.

leahyl · 03-11-2019 12:45pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Am I reading it correctly? You are trying to buy a 3 bed a rated house but you are on your own?

The reason it’s difficult is because you are trying to buy something aimed at families

What’s wrong with a single person wanting to buy a 3 bed semi??

Plenty of people buy semi detached houses on their own. During the recession they were going for 230k down here and they were in good condition. Unfortunately at the time I hadn’t a sufficient enough deposit to buy.

I also don’t want to buy an apartment, I want a house. I guess I’ll just have to accept that properties are just overpriced and live at home forever lol.

Property Market 2019

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