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21-12-2020, 12:06   #46
Artane2002
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What are we talking about here is it a storm or what
a warming of the stratosphere, check out the excellent first post of the thread by Sryan which explains what a sudden stratospheric warming is.
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21-12-2020, 15:23   #47
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If an ssw occurs will it enhance the cold spell forecast or hinder or is it just a wait see?
Im also aware that neither this forecast cold spell may occur or the SSW event but just wondering how it would interact with a given forecast?
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21-12-2020, 20:17   #48
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If an ssw occurs will it enhance the cold spell forecast or hinder or is it just a wait see?
Im also aware that neither this forecast cold spell may occur or the SSW event but just wondering how it would interact with a given forecast?
It's really impossible to tell, a split, as oppose to a displacement, increases our chances of a cold spell, but it could go awry and flip the pattern to a milder set up for us.

I think Sryan could be right about the GFS leading the way.
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21-12-2020, 20:30   #49
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Thanks Nacho.

Matt Hugo
@MattHugo81. i see this guy is bigging the cold potential up big style. I know nothing about him if this is credable or not. He posted a chart aswell that i dont understand but seemingly ECM had a big change. Good or bad for those who like cold? I have no idea..
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21-12-2020, 21:22   #50
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Thanks Nacho.

Matt Hugo
@MattHugo81. i see this guy is bigging the cold potential up big style. I know nothing about him if this is credable or not. He posted a chart aswell that i dont understand but seemingly ECM had a big change. Good or bad for those who like cold? I have no idea..
the ECM brought a good change, the mean zonal wind speed in the stratosphere is predicted to dip down to 5 m/s by the ECM mean, so getting close to a reversal, ie. a major SSW.
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21-12-2020, 21:30   #51
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the ECM brought a good change, the mean zonal wind speed in the stratosphere is predicted to dip down to 5 m/s by the ECM mean, so getting close to a reversal, ie. a major SSW.
Cheers Artane, the charts looked more or less the same to me. Il have to do a good bit of research on this topic.
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21-12-2020, 21:37   #52
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Cheers Artane, the charts looked more or less the same to me. Il have to do a good bit of research on this topic.
the mean (the thick blue line) has reduced by 15m/s compared to Thursday's update.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/statu...12679130419209
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21-12-2020, 21:49   #53
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Yes just roughly at the 5th and 6th. Metres per second. Missing the woods from trees. Thanks.
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22-12-2020, 00:46   #54
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It certainly seems things will be getting more interesting if we see some zonal wind reversal however this does not automatically equate to cold here. It depends on where the cold air is ejected out of the northern latitudes and the downstream synoptic situation from there but it certainly increases our chances.
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22-12-2020, 18:15   #55
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ECM and Glosea5 both showing a significant weakening of the SPV with Glosea5 now predicting a reversal at 65N - only a matter of time before it shows it for 60N (where the reversal needs to happen for it to be an official major SSW event) in my opinion.

Recent GFS OP runs, before the most recent 12z, had backed off somewhat on the split and reversal signal but still very much showed an unhealthy vortex that's pretty much inevitable to severe disruption.

I'm almost at the point of saying "it's game on" with regards to the stratosphere on a major SSW event occurring (not necessarily a split) but I'll give it more time.
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23-12-2020, 22:16   #56
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Well Sryan, do you agree with those who are saying a major displacement is now more likely than a split?
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24-12-2020, 20:59   #57
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Well Sryan, do you agree with those who are saying a major displacement is now more likely than a split?
I find that more of a safe bet than what is "likely" to be honest albeit can see where they are coming from (nature is always willing to surprise). All major SSW events begin with displacements to greater or lesser degrees. Need to keep an eye on developments of a secondary warming in the North Atlantic which would be a highly unusual location to see a warming to say the least. This warming event might be more conducive to a Greenland block rather than the development of a Scandi High which is a bit unusual. Just seen that ECM is showing a modest wave-2 warming around New Year, wouldn't be enough to suggest a big split I don't think but it's the first time ECM has shown something like this. It doesn't go out as far as GFS does anyway when that was showing a split to occur.

Everything else remains the same and in fact, the latest ECM ensemble mean goes for a major SSW event (reversal) in early January. I'd say that's game on now, let's see how it evolves. Be a pretty big flop if it wasn't a major SSW event from the model output.

I don't use "this is the most excited I have been" pretty lightly

Merry Christmas to you all! Hope you have a good one.

Last edited by sryanbruen; 24-12-2020 at 21:30. Reason: Added more comments!
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24-12-2020, 21:24   #58
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How fast will the down-welling through the layers occur? - that's the question. It can take many weeks for the results to be seen at 500hpa.
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24-12-2020, 22:22   #59
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I find that more of a safe bet than what is "likely" to be honest albeit can see where they are coming from (nature is always willing to surprise). All major SSW events begin with displacements to greater or lesser degrees. Need to keep an eye on developments of a secondary warming in the North Atlantic which would be a highly unusual location to see a warming to say the least. This warming event might be more conducive to a Greenland block rather than the development of a Scandi High which is a bit unusual. Just seen that ECM is showing a modest wave-2 warming around New Year, wouldn't be enough to suggest a big split I don't think but it's the first time ECM has shown something like this. It doesn't go out as far as GFS does anyway when that was showing a split to occur.

Everything else remains the same and in fact, the latest ECM ensemble mean goes for a major SSW event (reversal) in early January. I'd say that's game on now, let's see how it evolves. Be a pretty big flop if it wasn't a major SSW event from the model output.

I don't use "this is the most excited I have been" pretty lightly

Merry Christmas to you all! Hope you have a good one.
It could be a winter of biblical proportions. I winter that could contest the best.
It could also be the biggest let down we have seen in forever. Flip of a coin where the PV ends up if a split does occur.
Although as i have said a while back my thinking is 20ft drifts!
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25-12-2020, 12:54   #60
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Hopefully if we do get a split, it would be similar to what took place 2018. As, if i'm not mistaken, the response in the troposphere was fairly quick to that.
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