February 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2015 9:03am #1

Sorry to say that we are running late with the entry form, I have put in a request, but as the deadline is looming, let's go ahead with the thread, you can choose any of these options for entering -- just post the old-fashioned way on the thread, post in the January form (page one of the Jan contest) and I will transfer your forecast to this thread, or wait and see if a form appears and then use that later today or on Saturday, Sunday etc.

As soon as I see a new entry form in the link, or maybe as soon as one of you sees it, we'll post it here.

So meanwhile, here are the questions, at least you can think about the answers even if you want to wait a day to post in the entry form.

(the usual five plus a bonus) ...

1. Predict the IMT for the mean temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park (Carlow) and Shannon. The 1981-2010 mean or average was 5.2 C.

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature of the month) at any of the listed Met-Eireann stations as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature of the month) at any of the listed Met-Eireann stations as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC (precipitation) as a percentage of normal at the eleven stations used by Met-E in their Monthly Summary report.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal at the six stations used by Met-E in their Monthly Summary report.

6. Bonus -- For Valentines' Day (14 Feb) predict both the highest maximum and the lowest minimum temperatures, and give locations that could earn you 2 or 3 extra points if you're correct. The majority of the points will be awarded for the correct temperatures.

This template could be used by anyone who wants to enter directly in the thread:

IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ Max14 (loc) __ Min14 (loc)

Just to clarify one point, the minimum on the 14th would be the lowest overnight minimum, not the lowest daytime max.

Once again, sorry about the delay and I hope we get this straightened out later today.

The deadline in any case will be 0300h Monday 2 Feb, so you have the weekend to ponder these weighty matters (and avoid freezing to death).

Good luck !

dacogawa · 30-01-2015 7:32pm

Hey M.T. Thanks for all your hard work on the competition (as always) just checking I take it you meant Monday the 0300h 5th for the closing date?

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2015 7:43pm

Awkward, no I meant Monday the 2nd at 0300h, you must be looking at a January calendar. (I am a bit thick and sensing that I just didn't quite get a joke there, sorry if so) -- penalties begin 2nd at 0300h but folks can enter as late as they want, given that scores are reduced 5% every half-day from then to the end of entries.

Still no new entry form but I have posted in the January entry form so you can pretend that's for February and your posts would appear under my "this is February" notice with appropriate time stamps. We'll sort it out later.

Once again, to access the January entry form, go to page one of January's thread. Then proceed as if you had the right form, I will find your entries there and bring them into the table and the new entry form if we ever get one.

Harps · 01-02-2015 12:18am

Done...

Entered via the January thread

pauldry · 01-02-2015 1:08am

Ill just post here

4.5 ...12...-6...105...109...9sherkin ...-1 mullingar

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2015 8:04am

This will be my entry, hopefully we will have the entry form up really soon, but you can do what Harps did and enter in the January form if you wish.

IMT 2.3

MAX 12.5

MIN -9.5

PRC 40%

SUN 205%

on the 14th, max of 9.2 at Valentia and min of -3.5 at Mountdillon.

Good luck everyone. Sorry if I came off a bit sarcastic above, wasn't sure if I maybe missed a joke there.

Schadenfreudia · 01-02-2015 11:37am

IMT __ 5.1
MAX __13.1
MIN __-7.5C
PRC __88
SUN __ 118
Max14 7.8 Valentia
Min14 0.9 Ballyhaise

jd · 01-02-2015 12:39pm

IMT __ 5.3
MAX __12.8
MIN __-7.3C
PRC __92
SUN __ 107
7.9 Valentia
-3 Oak Park

DOCARCH · 01-02-2015 1:54pm

4.8 __ 13.6 __-7.2 __ 88% __ 108% __ 9.8 (Valentia) __-0.8 (Casement)

dasa29 · 01-02-2015 3:41pm

5.0 __ 13.0 __-7.5 __ 95% __ 110% __ 12.5 (Valentia) __-3.0 (Mullingar)

Jpmarn · 01-02-2015 3:54pm

IMT 5.2

MAX 12.8

MIN -7.4

PRC 85%

SUN 135%

on the 14th, max of 8.1 at sherkin island and min of -3.8 at Dublin Airport.

Schadenfreudia · 01-02-2015 6:17pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

IMT 2.3

MAX 12.5

MIN -9.5

PRC 40%

SUN 205%

You are going for a repeat of the phenomenally cold, sunny, frosty but snow-less Feb 1986! That means a lot of East wind??

omicron · 01-02-2015 6:18pm

4.2 __ 13.5 __-7.0 __ 90% __ 110% __ 11.0 (Valentia) __-2.0 (Ballyhaise)

Bsal · 01-02-2015 6:33pm

IMT 5.0

MAX 13.3

MIN -5.5

PRC 102%

SUN 105%

on the 14th, max of 9.8 at Sherkin and min of -1.1 at Gurteen.

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2015 7:33pm

Thus far, no changes in the entry form mystery (my assistant may be on holiday perhaps, if I try to change the forms around it will likely screw up the whole system so maybe next month, for now let's all enter here then ... )

As Harps was the only entrant to use the January form, this is the entry as shown there:

(Harps) ___ 4.8 __ 12.9 __ -6.2 __ 70 __ 110 ___ 7.2 (Valentia) and -1.2 (Ballyhaise)

If anyone else uses that form, I will post those entries over here too.

As to the 1986 analogy, might be so, although I am thinking very cold first half mostly under almost calm winds then a milder spell and some very cold days near the end, otherwise I would maybe have predicted 3.5 to 4.0, but suspect this winter is very much back-loaded like 2012-13 was.

waterways · 01-02-2015 9:14pm

4.3 __ 13 __ -7.8 __ 51__ 127 __ 11 (Shannon) __ 0 (Ballyhaise)

Rikand · 01-02-2015 9:21pm

5.0 ..... 14.0 ...... -5.0 ...... 90 ....... 120 ........ 8.0 (Johnstown Castle) ........ -2.5 (Mt. Dillon)

mickger844posts · 01-02-2015 9:42pm

IMT 4.1 MAX 14.1 MIN -7.8 PRC 85 SUN 120 Max14 Valentia 11.1 Min14 Oak Park -1.2

sunflower3 · 01-02-2015 9:42pm

4.8 __ 14.4 __ -6.2 __ 62__ 125 __ 12.2 (Shannon) __ 2.1 (Oak Park)

rameire · 01-02-2015 9:49pm

5.1 __ 12.7 __ -5,6 __ 134 __ 103 __ 9.1 MOOREPARK CORK __ -2.0 MARKREE SLIGO

mrskinner · 01-02-2015 9:55pm

4.4____13.1____-7____83%____107%____8.2 Valentia____3.4 Mullingar

kindredspirit · 01-02-2015 9:55pm

5.2 13.0 -6 80 110 10 Valentia -2 Ballyhaise

Joe Public · 01-02-2015 10:52pm

IMT 2.9

MAX 15.5

MIN -8.9

PRC 60%

SUN 159%

on the 14th, max of 11.9 at Roche's Pt. and min of -2.9 at Gurteen.

Lumi · 02-02-2015 12:05am

4.7 ..... 13.5 ...... -7.0 ...... 100 ....... 102 ........ 10.0 (Valentia) ........ -1.5 (Oak Park)

Tae laidir · 02-02-2015 12:37am

5.3...14.0...-5.5...75...115...11.5 (Valentia)...4.4 (Knock Airport)

dacogawa · 02-02-2015 1:22am

Apologies M.T. I was looking at the January calender

my bad, sorry!

IMT 4.9 MAX 13.1 MIN -7.0 PRC 72% SUN 122% Max 8.6 (Markree) Min -3.2 (Oakpark)

M.T. Cranium · 02-02-2015 5:49am

No worries, this whole contest thread has been a bit of a trainwreck so far, waiting for the IMT to soar to 8 C now.

I will wait for a day or so then post a table of forecasts, as one or two regulars seem to be a little bit late. (penalty time just started)

John mac · 02-02-2015 7:36am

5.1 __ 14 __ -4.7 __ 110__98 __ 11 (sherkin) __ oak park (-1)

BLIZZARD7 · 02-02-2015 9:08am

IMT 3.3C MAX 12.4C MIN -14.2C PRC 85% SUN 120% Max14 __ 6.9C (Valentia) Min14__ -10.5C (Birr)

Rikand · 03-02-2015 4:37pm

In hindsight, I think February will be one of the months I discount from my total at the end of this year

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2015 8:23pm

Birr no longer reports so I will change that to Gurteen which is fairly close. The January forecast contest is now scored after some minor adjustments to the provisional numbers.

Here's a table of entries for February so far ... can be edited if we get any later ones.

Forecasts for February 2015

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ MAX and MIN 14th

Tae laidir ____________ 5.3 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 075 _ 115 __11.5 VAL _ +4.4 KNO
jd __________________ 5.3 _ 12.8 _ -7.3 _ 092 _ 107 ___7.9 VAL _ -3.0 OAK
kindredspirit __________5.2 _ 13.0 _ -6.0 _ 080 _ 110 __10.0 VAL _ -2.0 BAL
Jpmarn ______________5.2 _ 12.8 _ -7.4 _ 085 _ 135 ___8.1 SHE _ -3.8 DUB
John mac __ (-5) ______5.1 _ 14.0 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 098 __11.0 SHE _ -1.0 OAK
Schadenfreudia _______ 5.1 _ 13.1 _ -7.5 _ 088 _ 118 ___7.8 VAL _ +0.9 BAL
rameire _____________ 5.1 _ 12.7 _ -5.6 _ 134 _ 103 ___9.1 MOO _ -2.0 MAR
Rikand ______________ 5.0 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___8.0 J.C. _ -2.5 MTD
Bsal ________________ 5.0 _ 13.3 _ -5.5 _ 102 _ 105 ___9.8 SHE _ -1.1 GUR
dasa29 ______________5.0 _ 13.0 _ -7.5 _ 095 _ 110 __ 12.5 VAL _ -3.0 MUL
dacogawa ___________ 4.9 _ 13.1 _ -7.0 _ 072 _ 122 ___ 8.6 MAR _ -3.2 OAK
sunflower3 ___________4.8 _ 14.4 _ -6.2 _ 062 _ 125 __12.2 SHA _ +2.1 OAK

Con Sensus __________ 4.8 _ 13.1 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 110 __ 9.8 VAL _ -1.5 OAK

DOCARCH ____________4.8 _ 13.6 _ -7.2 _ 088 _ 108 ___9.8 VAL _ -0.8 CAS
Harps _______________ 4.8 _ 12.9 _ -6.2 _ 070 _ 110 ___7.2 VAL _ -1.2 BAL
Lumi ________________4.7 _ 13.5 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 102 __10.0 VAL _ -1.5 OAK
Pauldry ______________4.5 _ 12.0 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 109 ___9.0 SHE _ -1.0 MUL
Mrskinner ____________4.4 _ 13.1 _ -7.0 _ 083 _ 107 ___8.2 VAL _ +3.4 MUL
waterways ___________ 4.3 _ 13.0 _ -7.8 _ 051 _ 127 __11.0 SHA __0.0 BAL
omicron _____________ 4.2 _ 13.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 110 __11.0 VAL _ -2.0 BAL
mickger844posts ______ 4.1 _ 14.1 _ -7.8 _ 085 _ 120 __11.1 VAL _ -1.2 OAK
BLIZZARD7 ___(-5) ____3.3 _ 12.4 _-14.2 _ 085 _ 120___6.9C VAL_-10.5 GUR
Joe Public ____________ 2.9 _ 15.5 _ -8.9 _ 060 _ 159 __11.9 ROC _ -2.9 GUR
M.T. Cranium _________ 2.3 _ 12.5 _ -9.5 _ 040 _ 205 ___9.2 VAL _ -3.5 MTD
_________________________________________________________

23 forecasts, median for consensus is 12th ranked value in each case.

The consensus is for a rather cold, dry and sunny month in general. For the max and min on the 14th, these were the preferred locations:

LOCATION ___________ MAX ___ MIN

Valentia _____________13 _____ 0
Sherkin ______________4 _____ 0
Shannon _____________2 _____ 0
Roche's Point _________ 1 _____ 0
Johnstown Castle ______ 1 _____ 0
Moorepark____________ 1 _____ 0
Markree ______________1 _____ 1
Knock _______________ 0 _____ 1
Casement ____________ 0 _____ 1
Dublin _______________ 0 _____ 1
Mountdillon ___________ 0 _____ 2
Mullingar _____________ 0 _____ 3
Gurteen ______________0 _____ 3
Ballyhaise ____________ 0 _____ 5
Oak Park _____________ 0 _____ 6

Interesting, because some of the preferred cold spots could be warmest but they were not chosen as such, looks like the field generally thinks the persistent anticyclone shown on recent charts will still have some influence by the 14th.

Bsal · 04-02-2015 2:47am

I heard Siobhan Moore say Dublin airport reached -8c at 8am Tuesday.

omicron · 04-02-2015 5:16am

Bsal wrote: »

I heard Siobhan Moore say Dublin airport reached -8c at 8am Tuesday.

-7.7 at 7am was the min according to Ogimet.

Joe Public · 04-02-2015 10:56am

It's down as -7.9C at Dublin Airport for 3rd Feb

200motels · 06-02-2015 12:09am

I completely forgot about this month.

M.T. Cranium · 10-02-2015 8:03pm

So, just returning from a few days away, the IMT after nine days stood at 2.2 C and there has been almost no precip yet, sunshine looks to be well up there around 150% despite the odd cloudy day.

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2015 7:15pm

IMT after 14 days was at 3.2 C

PRC after 14 days about 20% of normal

SUN after 14 days about 100% of normal (last five days generally rather cloudy)

Bonus -- 11.4 at VAL (Valentia) and --1.0 at MAR (Markree) are given as the extremes in the daily report.

Tae laidir (off only 0.1), omicron and mickger844posts will share in the (5+1) max points for the high, Joe Public, John mac and waterways will get 5 but no bonus, meanwhile for the min, the four closest (and ties) were Johnmac and Pauldry with exact forecasts, while bsal 0.1 out, then DOCARCH, harps and mickger844posts were all within 0.2, none of them had MAR, only rameire chose that location for the bonus point. Quite a few others will share the bonus point for choosing Valentia.

M.T. Cranium · 20-02-2015 4:39am

MAX of 13.2 at Casement, Gurteen and Mullingar on Wed 18th.

Schadenfreudia · 20-02-2015 2:16pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

MAX of 13.2 at Casement, Gurteen and Mullingar on Wed 18th.

I beat that by 0.2 degrees! Any extra points for that?

M.T. Cranium · 21-02-2015 7:57am

As that stands it would be worth 18 of the possible 20 points. I guess my 40% of normal precip is going to get washed away fairly soon but it was a good try -- would not be surprised if the final result is about 60-70.

M.T. Cranium · 22-02-2015 8:06pm

So after three weeks (not counting today's rain or milder temps) the values are

IMT 3.8 C (should finish around 4.0)

PRC 48% of normal (may take a run up to perhaps 70%)

SUN 98% (approximate) with this past week near 95%, more likely to go down than up it would appear

As far as I know, max is 13.2 and min -7.9 C. Neither looks overly threatened although with the rising normal values any mildish day could boost 13.2 a few tenths.

Therefore, a rather cold, dry month in climate terms although divided into a very cold and bone dry first ten days and a near normal and somewhat unsettled mid-month period with further storminess to come.

Rikand · 26-02-2015 12:10pm

March contest ?

Tis only a couple of days till March!

M.T. Cranium · 26-02-2015 7:34pm

Posting it now.

M.T. Cranium · 27-02-2015 4:35am

14.2 on Wed 25th at Roches Point appears to be our new MAX.

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2015 7:35pm

IMT finished at 4.4 C

PRC is 80% (will confirm from MS)

SUN estimate 95%

MAX and MIN so far would appear to be 14.2 and -7.9

Will post some scores on Tuesday when MS appears ... from a quick look at the forecasts, I think the highest score might be Mickger844posts who has about 87 give or take.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2015 5:21pm

Confirmed most of the above estimates, scoring to follow later this evening.

IMT 4.4 C

MAX 14.2 C

MIN -7.9 C

PRC 80%

SUN 102%

Bonus was discussed earlier in the thread (11.4 Valentia, -1.0 Markree)

Will post some scores in about two hours.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2015 7:17pm

Scoring for February 2015

FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus max,min ___ TOTALS

mickger844posts ______ 22 _ 19 _ 19 _ 13 _ 06 __ 5+1 _ 5+0 _______ 90
DOCARCH ____________21 _ 14 _ 13 _ 12 _ 09 __ 4+1 _ 5+0 _______ 79
omicron _____________ 23 _ 13 _ 11 _ 12 _ 08 __ 5+1 _ 4+0 _______ 77
Lumi ________________22 _ 13 _ 11 _ 08 _ 10 __ 3+1 _ 4+0 _______ 72
Mrskinner ____________25 _ 09 _ 11 _ 14 _ 09 __ 1+1 _ 1+0 _______ 71

Con Sensus __________ 21 _ 09 _ 11 _ 13 _ 08 __ 4+1 _ 4+0 _______ 71

waterways ___________ 24 _ 08 _ 19 _ 05 _ 05 __ 5+0 _ 4+0 _______ 70
dasa29 ______________19 _ 08 _ 16 _ 10 _ 08 __ 4+1 _ 3+0 _______ 69
Schadenfreudia _______ 18 _ 09 _ 16 _ 12 _ 07 __ 1+1 _ 3+0 _______ 67
dacogawa ___________ 20 _ 09 _ 11 _ 12 _ 06 __ 2+0 _ 2+0 _______ 62
sunflower3 ___________21 _ 18 _ 03 _ 09 _ 05 __ 4+0 _ 1+0 _______ 61
jd __________________16 _ 06 _ 14 _ 11 _ 09 __ 1+1 _ 3+0 _______ 61
Tae laidir ____________ 16 _ 18 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 __ 5+1 _ 0+0 _______ 60
Rikand ______________ 19 _ 18 _ 00 _ 12 _ 06 __ 1+0 _ 3+0 _______ 59
Harps _______________ 21 _ 07 _ 03 _ 12 _ 08 __ 0+1 _ 5+0 _______ 57
kindredspirit __________17 _ 08 _ 01 _ 15 _ 08 __ 3+1 _ 4+0 _______ 57
Jpmarn ______________17 _ 06 _ 15 _ 13 _ 04 __ 1+0 _ 1+0 _______ 57
John mac __ (-5) ______18 _ 18 _ 00 _ 05 _ 09 __ 5+0 _ 5+0 __ 60-5= 55
Bsal ________________ 19 _ 11 _ 00 _ 08 _ 09 __ 3+0 _ 5+0 _______ 55
Pauldry ______________24 _ 00 _ 01 _ 07 _ 09 __ 2+0 _ 5+0 _______ 48
Joe Public ____________10 _ 07 _ 10 _ 08 _ 00 __ 4+0 _ 3+0 _______ 42
rameire _____________ 18 _ 05 _ 00 _ 00 _ 10 __ 2+0 _ 4+1 _______ 40
BLIZZARD7 ___(-5) ____14 _ 02 _ 00 _ 13 _ 06 __ 0+1 _ 0+0 __ 36-5=31
M.T. Cranium _________04 _ 03 _ 04 _ 02 _ 00 __ 2+1 _ 1+0 _______ 17
_________________________________________________________

So, congrats to Mickger844posts with one of the higher scores recorded in these contests (90) followed by very respectable 79 from DOCARCH and 77 from omicron.

Meanwhile, I am doing my part to keep Con under some sort of control anyway.

Will post a combined annual and winter season table in about an hour or so.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2015 8:33pm

This table combines the winter seasonal scoring (including Dec 2014) with the annual 2015 scoring. The December and winter numbers will disappear when this returns at the end of March.

Scores are ranked by 2015 totals, winter points follow roughly similar order and the points are awarded as follows -- 10 for first, 7 for second, 6 for third, then following that progression to 1 for 8th, 9th and 10th places. Con Sensus is scored along with the actual forecasters but nobody under that score loses ranking points. You have to enter all three months to qualify for four seasons points.

FORECASTER ____________ Dec __ Jan __ Feb ___ Winter _ points ___ 2015 Total

DOCARCH ________________69 __ 75 __ 79 ______ 223 ____ 7 _____ 154
Rikand __________________ 81 __ 84 __ 59 ______ 224 ____10 _____ 143

Con Sensus ______________ 75 __ 70 __ 71 ______ 216 ____ 6 _____ 141

mickger844posts __________ 64 __ 50 __ 90 ______ 204 ____ 4 _____ 140
Lumi ____________________--- __ 68 __ 72 ______ ---- ____ -- _____ 140
jd ______________________ 80 __ 72 __ 61 ______ 213 ____ 6 _____ 133
Bsal ____________________ 63 __ 77 __ 55 ______ 195 ____ 2 _____ 132
sunflower3 _______________ 56 __ 69 __ 61 ______ 186 ____ 1 _____ 130
John mac ________________ 46 __ 73 __ 55 ______ 174 ____ -- _____ 128
Schadenfreudia ___________ --- __ 61 __ 67 ______ ---- ____ -- _____ 128
Harps ___________________ 85 __ 69 __ 57 ______ 211 ____ 5 _____ 126
Jpmarn __________________56 __ 64 __ 57 ______ 177 ____ -- _____ 121
kindredspirit ______________ 84 __ 63 __ 57 ______ 204 ____ 4 _____ 120
omicron __________________66 __ 41 __ 77 ______ 184 ____ 1 _____ 118
dasa29 __________________ 55 __ 47 __ 69 ______ 171 ____ -- _____ 116
Joe Public ________________ 65 __ 69 __ 42 ______ 176 ____ -- _____ 111
dacogawa ________________ 71 __ 48 __ 62 ______ 181 ____ 1 _____ 110
Pauldry __________________ 71 __ 51 __ 48 ______ 170 ____ -- ______ 99
rameire __________________ 57 __ 55 __ 40 ______ 152 ____ -- ______ 95
Tae laidir _________________63 __ 33 __ 60 ______ 156 ____ -- ______ 93
M.T. Cranium _____________ 41 __ 68 __ 17 ______ 126 ____ -- ______ 85
Mrskinner ________________--- __ --- __ 71 _______---- ____ -- ______ 71
waterways _______________ 75 __ --- __ 70 ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 70
lostinashford ______________56 __ 56 __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 56
delw ____________________ 59 __ 48 __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 48
blue5000 ________________ --- __ 45 __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 45
BLIZZARD7 ______________ --- __ --- __ 31 ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 31
200motels _______________ 55 __ 30 __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 30

only played December 2014

Okla ___________________ 63 __ --- __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ ---
YouTookMyName _________ 43 __ --- __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ ---

________________________________________________________

No worries if you have missed one month this year, the contest is based on your best ten out of twelve, tables will start to show this scoring system later in the year. Congrats to DOCARCH and rikand for staying ahead of the ever-chasing Con Sensus, and in the opposite order for finishing 1-2 in the winter seasonal points award.

February 2015 Boards forecast contest

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