Last Chance Saloon Champions Weekend

Labhras OMurchu · 18-10-2019 9:53pm

My first tip on here, rather than "troll" the Champions Day thread

Aidan to tip Capri ew

Capri to start way bigger at BSP

Capri to finish unplaced

(NAP)

Aidan to tip I Can Fly and/or So Perfect (NB)

famagusta · 18-10-2019 11:19pm

You are wrong to be comparing BSP with the prices he is quoting.
Fair enough some times it is much much bigger but I would imagine most of the value that Aidan is looking at is in the place part of the each way bet especially in races with enhanced place terms.
With longer priced horses there will not be value compared to BSP but there most definitely could be savage value on the place part of the bet with enhanced place terms etc...

abarkie · 19-10-2019 12:24am

Labhras OMurchu wrote: »

I It's s bit like that error in excel where you try divide by zero

Don't you know how to stop that? :eek:

Francie Barrett · 19-10-2019 12:32am

You are unhinged.

Labhras OMurchu · 19-10-2019 10:47am

famagusta wrote: »

You are wrong to be comparing BSP with the prices he is quoting.
Fair enough some times it is much much bigger but I would imagine most of the value that Aidan is looking at is in the place part of the each way bet especially in races with enhanced place terms.
With longer priced horses there will not be value compared to BSP but there most definitely could be savage value on the place part of the bet with enhanced place terms etc...

In theory I'd agree but a few issues:

- for the most part extra places are Skybet at al only, online only etc so effectively "mugs only"
- when unlocking edge on the place part you sacrifice on the win part (in this person's case enormously). Only if you get more on the place part than you give up on the win part is it worthwhile, Aidan never references this and I'll bet doesn't even realise it. Often he tips win only and Betfair price and the time and subsequent BSP is much bigger
- even though some of these markets are more difficult to lose on than win Aidan has still managed to hemorrhage dough over the time I've been reading this forum, has managed to "give up" numerous times but still always manages to start back looking for appreciation and attention

Francie Barrett wrote: »

You are unhinged.

Many thanks for your lucid, intelligent and well argued rebuttal to the points I made clearly pointing out how wrong I am rather than resorting to the usual law of the internet where metaphorically one picks up ones football and goes home. Probably worth re-quoting this - a very, very sensible post

yaboya1 wrote: »

It seems a few on here back a couple of the forum tipsters winners and then become overly protective of them.
The tipster become above questioning despite many, many bad calls because a few backed a big priced winner he tipped many moons ago.

There's loads of examples of this, but you're rowing against the tide when you ask legitimate questions. The fanboys come out in force and the nonsense they spout drowns out any reasonable debate. Best just to ignore them and leave them massaging the ego of their favourite tipster. Not worth the time or effort to do anything else imo as your genuine queries will be disregarded and questions about how many winners you've tipped becomes the defence. Pointless.

bladespin · 19-10-2019 11:54am

What a tulip, needs to look for a nice pot to stick himself in.

HarshOstrich · 19-10-2019 12:27pm

Labhras OMurchu wrote: »

The Goat gets a lot of (deserved) stick on here but the most arrogant clueless poster on here must be this clown. I follow racing but don't really bet so never bothered making an account before - but what Aidan gets away with must be tackled

I understand variance so can understand losing runs on big prices but this lad's ability to not get within an asses roar of Betfair SP is phenomenal (while rabbiting on about value this and value that). Yet the ego makes him keep going. "my thread", "we missed the price" (FFS, "we" get over yourself). Tipping the same cliff horses over and over. Norway won (stopped clocks and all that) but the thread showed a huge loss. However no way would Aidan's ego let him take a break (not the first time he's taken a break only to not be able to stay away)

21-09-19

I've given up tipping, here's my tip. Please pay attention to me. 19/24, 70BSP

Lost on a short priced one, no 15 in a row this time (must be the greatest aftertime in the history of Boards)

Even assuming all the sub 4/1 shots were evs this is >30,000/1

I won't bother posting everything since he gave up tipping but kept tipping but this one is pretty special (could post millions other similar)

Posted at the off at 50/1 when anyone with eyeballs could see the price on Betfair (13th at a BSP of 156.43). So many times this happens - at the off a tip at a fraction of BSP

I can't quote all the idiocy of the last 18-24 months I've been reading here but a select few

Goes off at 12/1 - try 140+ BSP. Created a thread for that one

I'll just list a few more:

03/08/19 - Mitchouka 33/1 (BSP 271.83)

07/09/19 - Lucky 15 at 20/1 (BSP 21 7/16), 33/1 (BSP 44.78 14/16), 25/1 (BSP 25.1 9/11 - can't believe he beat it), 40/1 (BSP an incredible 173.89 17/22)

Yet the odd time he flukes a bad place all the lemmings backslap and shout "Aidan you legend" thanks for that 25/1 shot that was multiples on Betfair

Profitable for years apparently but can still get on with all the joke firms, Skybet etc

When he's losing "I'm a small punter"

When he wins "we'll need the wheelbarrow"

Website (which is fairly funny if you visit) there's no P&L since 2016. wonder why?

I assume I'll get abuse and Aidan will have a strop (think I vaguely remember him crying for being pulled up for aftertiming prices) but who cares

And before anyone says the usual - "post your selections then" - as I said I don't really bet but can recognise a fraud and a charlatan a mile off

Laughable

I agree with a lot of what your saying but it doesn't seem to bother most posters on the forum in fact i think your the first person voice your frustration.
Just ignore his posts and move on with your life.

The Jman · 19-10-2019 12:58pm

Are people's lives really that sad that they have this much bitterness against a lad who's posting his fancies online? I really enjoy reading Aidan's posts and listening to his podcasts, it's great having him on boards, it's much better than reading people coming on and picking holes in his choices!

Earendil · 19-10-2019 4:00pm

The Jman wrote: »

Are people's lives really that sad that they have this much bitterness against a lad who's posting his fancies online? I really enjoy reading Aidan's posts and listening to his podcasts, it's great having him on boards, it's much better than reading people coming on and picking holes in his choices!

Very well put. That’s all he does, stick up his long shot fancies. The tosser who wrote the whinge is just another login from anitsam/ridesagoat/sting.

RivetingRoger · 19-10-2019 4:31pm

Slattsy wrote: »

There seems to be a trend on boards lately, people setting up multiple accounts just to troll basically. It started off in the GAA forum, rampant in the soccer forum lately, and now here recently, with Goat(s) and now this.

The site is a shambles.

Can admin sort this by showing IP addresses or even last 3 digits or something
Expose the frauds

antietam · 19-10-2019 7:35pm

Based on fact that everyone should know Magical should not have being 6/4 or odds against.There is zero point if nobody did not invest in a certainty of clear clarity.

Peintre Celebre · 19-10-2019 9:01pm

antietam wrote: »

Based on fact that everyone should know Magical should not have being 6/4 or odds against.There is zero point if nobody did not invest in a certainty of clear clarity.

Sorry if late internet acting up magical is an absolute cert have what you want on weakest champions in forever 6/4 is a gift have the cock and balls on

mickey1979 · 19-10-2019 9:31pm

I don’t post much but have been on here a long time only two stood out for me Aidan is one and James Boyle. Two brilliant tipsters and while Aidan has a bad year. This happened before with jumpers before he came roaring back and got it all back in a month.

NaiveMelodies · 20-10-2019 8:10am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Can admin sort this by showing IP addresses or even last 3 digits or something
Expose the frauds

Shouldn't you be banned?

Earendil · 20-10-2019 2:04pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Shouldn't you be banned?

Why would he be?

NaiveMelodies · 20-10-2019 5:23pm

Earendil wrote: »

Why would he be?

For telling us about his big wins after the fact!

Earendil · 21-10-2019 8:58am

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

For telling us about his big wins after the fact!

I thought he done it once and was rightfully lashed for it.
Nothing like the extensive history of that other gobsh!te with multiple accounts spamming the board.

Slattsy · 21-10-2019 9:13am

No active Mod.

That is the crux of the problem.

Dr. Bre · 21-10-2019 9:16am

Escobar got me out. Had a treble strad magical and star catcher so I was quite annoyed by this . When fleeting ran into trouble I thought it wasn’t my day

RoyalAcademy2 · 21-10-2019 12:42pm

If you put your head above the parapet and tip horses for the benefit of others - you obviously feel you have something to offer - then you should be 100% accountable for your opinions. This should include an ongoing P&L summary and a record of results based on specific advice and final results.
Generally, there is zero accountability and I believe that if you are blithely oblivious to this fact you deserve every merited criticism that comes your way.
There ARE tipsters that live and die on their success (or otherwise):
The Smart Betting Club will educate you about all you need to know about professional tipsters
The Holy Grail is to be paid for your opinion and not be accountable for it.
What I find particularly distasteful is certain tipsters - prominent in the Irish "trade" media - who write "free" columns and have professional charged-for tipping lines running in tandem - ever feel short changed? (I have seen two opinions in the same race).

i also agree that the amateur tipster has to be cognisant of the language used as, believe it or not, there are impressionable idiots out there who hang on to every word. We all know the difference between 1 point each-way and a 5 point belter but many posts here are ignorant to these consequences.

If someone is posting constantly and potentially resting on old laurels but recognises the potential pain inflicted on themselves or others with a bad (but unaccounted for) run it might seem obvious that a break is needed to go back to basics (that may have worked in the past) or just maybe to replenish your betting bank-we are skint after all!! If you make such a promise despite another losing run yet can reappear within double-quick time it suggests either you do not have the faith of your own convictions or the losing pain that is clearly implied is mostly absent.

Finally, a well-known professional punter who is having a very average year - I remain unconvinced 90% of his supporters never get near the advertised prices in any event - decided to puff his results recently by including all his advices - whether advised to cash or not - to embellish profits by 300%-400%. Caveat emptor.

So its entirely appropriate to call someone to account.

bladespin · 21-10-2019 1:05pm

RoyalAcademy2 wrote: »

So its entirely appropriate to call someone to account.

Maybe but that eegit's having a go at Aidan who posts long-shot value bets, not tips as such. If you're tipping - a dead cert that's one thing but we all know the longshot is exactly that though he still has a fair strike rate for them IMO.

21-10-2019 1:17pm

RoyalAcademy2 wrote: »

If you put your head above the parapet and tip horses for the benefit of others - you obviously feel you have something to offer - then you should be 100% accountable for your opinions.

He's a racing fan posting long shot tips for free on a message board.

If you don't like them don't back them. What is this absolute nonsense about being "100% accountable" for his opinions? Who cares?

Give me Aidan any day over the usual "Getting stuck into Stradivariius today" types (thanks, I never would have spotted that myself). He backs up his opinions with a bit of logic and looks for angles that others may not have noticed. You can't win them all, no punter does.

Also he's the first to send himself up, I think he's aware he's been following Capri a little too long and he doesn't mind laughing about it.

Imhof Tank · 21-10-2019 1:47pm

As posted above I don’t mind Aidan putting up his stuff, but if he is going to leave himself open (just like the goat) with statements like giving up till Cheltenham – it has to be ok to call him out.

It’s the fanboys that irritate me. “You legend!”, “The weekend is saved!”. What kind of self-respecting punter is willing to have enough on to make or break a weekend based on a “tip” from here? Shouldn’t you be doing your own form study not following some stranger blindly? That is degenerate behaviour and actually could also be considered to be derivative after timing IMO. “Cheers man, had a good bet on that one!“ posted after the event.

Some of the recent jibes at Roger are OTT. He after-timed once in a careless way but is a good positive poster the vast majority of the time. I do wonder sometimes though if he might be Emmet Kennedy in disguise, such are the number of mug specials he puts up.

longshotvalue · 21-10-2019 1:53pm

Stood by and had a good laugh at this. I wish i had as much time to look at racing and form and some do to give out about selections and chat.

Who knew it wasnt easy to pick a 50/1 winner.:eek:. The BSP thing is a non event, im not trying to conform to industry average, im trying to look outside the norm.

Anyone that knows anything about maths and stats would recognise that its possible to pick hundreds of loosers in a row at these prices. Im just giving back some of what i luckboxed before. Bound to happen, if it was a easy as it seemed for a few years, id never post and be sitting in my chair looking and the sun/sea/sand.

Giving out about the likes of Norway and I can fly and the like is silly though (2 of my only profitable tips for the last 12 months) , if i only kept to AOB 2-3 strings, id be miles better off.

All that said. I will take a season long bet though until say Aintree/Punchestown, if there are any takers of the other side . Even bet i loose if i loose.

Earendil · 21-10-2019 2:54pm

RoyalAcademy2 wrote: »

If you put your head above the parapet and tip horses for the benefit of others - you obviously feel you have something to offer - then you should be 100% accountable for your opinions. This should include an ongoing P&L summary and a record of results based on specific advice and final results.
Generally, there is zero accountability and I believe that if you are blithely oblivious to this fact you deserve every merited criticism that comes your way.
There ARE tipsters that live and die on their success (or otherwise):
The Smart Betting Club will educate you about all you need to know about professional tipsters
The Holy Grail is to be paid for your opinion and not be accountable for it.
What I find particularly distasteful is certain tipsters - prominent in the Irish "trade" media - who write "free" columns and have professional charged-for tipping lines running in tandem - ever feel short changed? (I have seen two opinions in the same race).

i also agree that the amateur tipster has to be cognisant of the language used as, believe it or not, there are impressionable idiots out there who hang on to every word. We all know the difference between 1 point each-way and a 5 point belter but many posts here are ignorant to these consequences.

If someone is posting constantly and potentially resting on old laurels but recognises the potential pain inflicted on themselves or others with a bad (but unaccounted for) run it might seem obvious that a break is needed to go back to basics (that may have worked in the past) or just maybe to replenish your betting bank-we are skint after all!! If you make such a promise despite another losing run yet can reappear within double-quick time it suggests either you do not have the faith of your own convictions or the losing pain that is clearly implied is mostly absent.

Finally, a well-known professional punter who is having a very average year - I remain unconvinced 90% of his supporters never get near the advertised prices in any event - decided to puff his results recently by including all his advices - whether advised to cash or not - to embellish profits by 300%-400%. Caveat emptor.

So its entirely appropriate to call someone to account.

Pile of sh!te.
A fella putting up his longshot fancies should be held accountable. :rolleyes:

Labhras OMurchu · 21-10-2019 8:24pm

aidankkk wrote: »

The BSP thing is a non event

I started posting here to expose how clueless Aidan is, my work is now complete and wasn't necessary. He's done it for me

aidankkk wrote: »

im not trying to conform to industry average, im trying to look outside the norm

Hahahahahahahahahaha

Honestly had you told me yesterday I'd read a statement so arrogant online I'd have pictured myself getting angry, I can't stop laughing. It one of the funniest things I've ever read. Rain Man Aidan comes out with the punting equivalent of "I see dead people"

Aidan knows more than the collective market, but can't beat it. Hahahahahahahahahaha. Use the force Aidan

aidankkk wrote: »

Anyone that knows anything about maths and stats would recognise that its possible to pick hundreds of loosers in a row at these prices.

I said similar in my first post, but I forgot, you don't need to beat SP (or in your case get within 50% of it - sorry I've just started laughing again)

Oh by the way it's spelled "lose" not "loose"

bladespin wrote: »

Maybe but that eegit's having a go at Aidan who posts long-shot value bets, not tips as such

See what I've stated repeatedly - just because it's a "longshot" doesn't equate to "value"

longshotvalue · 21-10-2019 9:20pm

I don’t need to comment anymore , but surly it takes thousands of selections to come to a conclusion , especially with long shots . If you look back the thousands of selections on here , you’d be playing with bookies money for a long time yet . Taking the only 200 selections over the last year isn’t near enough .

Anyway we all differ in our approach obviously, I bet small enough so long shots are a necessity to get a big payout( obviously it’s been a while)

tryfix · 21-10-2019 9:41pm

Deleted User wrote: »

He's a racing fan posting long shot tips for free on a message board.

If you don't like them don't back them. What is this absolute nonsense about being "100% accountable" for his opinions? Who cares?

Give me Aidan any day over the usual "Getting stuck into Stradivariius today" types (thanks, I never would have spotted that myself). He backs up his opinions with a bit of logic and looks for angles that others may not have noticed. You can't win them all, no punter does.

Also he's the first to send himself up, I think he's aware he's been following Capri a little too long and he doesn't mind laughing about it.

Those lamenting the state of the forum should consider how lamentable the place would be without the thread starters ( blessed be the thread starters)

Even the Goat has his uses in starting the daily thread which draws in a few posters commenting about their own selections etc.

Aidankk is another thread starter and a popular one at that.

Those knocking bitter lumps out of others on here are the ones who kill a forum. As someone said earlier, if you put your head above the parapet you're there to be shot at ( I was happy enough to get cut down a peg in the bitching post ) but if people go into full " mean drunk at the bar" mode they'll close this place.

LIGHTEN UP it's just a discussion board.

Last Chance Saloon Champions Weekend

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