Winter 2010-2011 outlook

duckysauce · 04-12-2010 12:58am

Kenring wrote: »

I am not responsible for the thread going off track. Breaching copyright isn't going to change that. I tell the trends as I see them. People take issue with that? - well, get over it, I'm allowed to have an opinion. If you don't agree, give your opinion. If we have a difference of opinion, let's discuss it. But let's stop this personal attack stuff. Villain has been a prime shinkicker in the past, and now he's back. He seems to think that if I sell forecast reports I am some sort of devil. I don't recall coming over and forcing him at gun point to buy anything from me.

if your forecast was right let him post it , or is he part of the white power anti moon group too ?

Kenring · 04-12-2010 1:01am

Villain wrote: »

Forget about the 23rd I'm talking about last week in Nov that you mentioned and also first 4 days of December.

It's funny how under questions here you say it's an opinion, yet on Irish radio you tell people you can predict weather to within a day years in advance to try and sell your forecasts!!

Well, over here we regard the 23rd as being in the last 10 days of November.
I never tell anyone I can predict the weather. That would be setting myself up as god. On my almanac it says I offer opinions. I do suggest the buyer can do the prediction from reading the trends and the reasons.

Villain · 04-12-2010 1:05am

Kenring wrote: »

Well, over here we regard the 23rd as being in the last 10 days of November.
I never tell anyone I can predict the weather. That would be setting myself up as god. On my almanac it says I offer opinions. I do suggest the buyer can do the prediction from reading the trends and the reasons.

Lol you have a short memory Ken as was proven before you said it on the Last Word on Today FM. You forecast 15c High today with a low of 10c, you'll have to go 800 miles to get near that

Kenring · 04-12-2010 1:11am

Damo9090 wrote: »

As i said over on the IWN its all spam.

Promote books and paid forecasts from website.

But there you go again discussing it! I have no wish to land myself in hot water with the moderators for self-promoting. This has gone far enough. I wish the discussion of whether or not I earn from products to cease on this forum. Please stop talking about it and requiring me to defend attacks on my activities. Methinks Villain and Damo are being deliberately obtuse in order to get me banned. I would rather there was some sort of control over those who are working at getting me removed. If you no longer hear from me the moderators will have cut me off as they have threatened to.
Can we get back to talking about Winter 2010-2011 Outlook?

Villain · 04-12-2010 1:16am

Kenring wrote: »

But there you go again discussing it! I have no wish to land myself in hot water with the moderators for self-promoting. This has gone far enough. I wish the discussion of whether or not I earn from products to cease on this forum. Please stop talking about it and requiring me to defend attacks on my activities. Methinks Villain and Damo are being deliberately obtuse in order to get me banned. I would rather there was some sort of control over those who are working at getting me removed. If you no longer hear from me the moderators will have cut me off as they have threatened to.
Can we get back to talking about Winter 2010-2011 Outlook?

No intention of getting you banned, just looking to discuss your predictions in an "Honest" manner.

Do you deny you said that on Today FM? Do you deny that your paid forecast was totally and utterly wrong for this cold spell.

If you answer Yes then we can move but otherwise the discussion is pointless.

Kenring · 04-12-2010 1:17am

Villain wrote: »

Lol you have a short memory Ken as was proven before you said it on the Last Word on Today FM. You forecast 15c High today with a low of 10c, you'll have to go 800 miles to get near that

Well, as I said, I was only using one temperature reading from one station. There could well have been that reading in one valley. Always take a range and consider trends, not specifics.

Villain · 04-12-2010 1:20am

Kenring wrote: »

Well, as I said, I was only using one temperature reading from one station. There could well have been that reading in one valley. Always take a range and consider trends, not specifics.

Lol 15c today within 80 miles of Carlow?? Come on Ken??

Do you deny what I said you stated on Today FM

Kenring · 04-12-2010 1:21am

Villain wrote: »

No intention of getting you banned, just looking to discuss your predictions in an "Honest" manner.

Do you deny you said that on Today FM? Do you deny that your paid forecast was totally and utterly wrong for this cold spell.

If you answer Yes then we can move but otherwise the discussion is pointless.

Yes I deny that I said that. I pointed people to where they could get where I said the last 10 days of November would be a cold spell. Do you deny that? Do you deny that I wrote in your report that there was potential for subzero minimums on northern lunar declination in the last 10 days of November in Carlow?

Villain · 04-12-2010 1:27am

Kenring wrote: »

Yes I deny that I said that. I pointed people to where they could get where I said the last 10 days of November would be a cold spell. Do you deny that? Do you deny that I wrote in your report that there was potential for subzero minimums on northern lunar declination in the last 10 days of November in Carlow?

The forecast for last 10 days was totally wrong.

So you deny saying you can predict weather to the day even the hour years in advance live on Today FM?

thetonynator · 04-12-2010 1:44am

Kenring wrote: »

Yes I deny that I said that. I pointed people to where they could get where I said the last 10 days of November would be a cold spell. Do you deny that? Do you deny that I wrote in your report that there was potential for subzero minimums on northern lunar declination in the last 10 days of November in Carlow?

ken, there is always potential for sub zero minimums in november. It's like me saying there is potential for over 20 degree temps in july and selling it.

I notice you didn't answer my earlier question about why you picked ireland to forecast for, is it because i was right?

I think i'm going to set up a forecasting company for southern algeria. Shouldn't be too hare winter: temps 30+ no rain. Summer: temps 40+ no rain. Anyone want to buy it off me? :rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium · 04-12-2010 1:53am

Yes, it will go nicely with my Nigerian bank service that I just purchased at the very encouraging price of five thousand US dollars. Apparently in a month I will be getting a cheque for twenty thousand.

That will allow me to fly to Algeria and supervise operations.

Could you send me a cheque for five thousand US dollars just as a good faith gesture? Thanks.

I will see to it that your investment is suitably rewarded.

thetonynator · 04-12-2010 1:57am

I'd love to m.t. But i just spent my last 5 grand on a shipment off discount viagra which i have been told i will be able to sell for 50 grand.

M.T. Cranium · 04-12-2010 2:13am

You're obviously a sharper businessman than me, then, you stand to make twice the profit and get lucky at the same time. :cool:

Kenring · 04-12-2010 3:01am

Villain wrote: »

The forecast for last 10 days was totally wrong.

So you deny saying you can predict weather to the day even the hour years in advance live on Today FM?

Oh I may have said it in jest. I may have also said we can do the street and the particular hat and handbag that would get snowflakes on them. Did I say how many raindrops plus/minus 7? Sometimes there are slow-to-grasp-concepts-folk who think this is an exact science, that it is not about trends but actual figures. But clearly most people get what I am trying to do or I wouldn't still be in business.

snow ghost · 04-12-2010 3:17am

thetonynator wrote: »

But seriously, the donegal postman has a higher accuracy rate and all he does is look at foxes and stuff . . .:rolleyes:

Don't knock the Donegal postie - unless he starts reading fox paws and predicting their future - wild animals are in tune with their environment, they live outside, and they instinctively have a sense of what weather is probably coming, their next meal or life can depend on it.

I saw a few foxes out earlier wearing longer skirts than usual, so I knew it would remain chilly. :pac:

snow ghost · 04-12-2010 3:22am

Kenring wrote: »

But clearly most people get what I am trying to do or I wouldn't still be in business.

Medicine Shows often remained in business for some time too Ken - they just kept moving to a new town.

Redsunset · 04-12-2010 9:51am

From Joe B
Friday
it's interesting to see tonight's run of the ECMWF model try to re-charge the blocking for one more go around mid December to mid January, not only for Europe, but for much of the eastern U.S. This certainly runs counter to my ideas, which say we are going to break this and reverse it in the north.

Read more on his thoughts
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

thetonynator · 04-12-2010 11:53am

Kenring wrote: »

Oh I may have said it in jest. I may have also said we can do the street and the particular hat and handbag that would get snowflakes on them. Did I say how many raindrops plus/minus 7? Sometimes there are slow-to-grasp-concepts-folk who think this is an exact science, that it is not about trends but actual figures. But clearly most people get what I am trying to do or I wouldn't still be in business.

You say it is about trends. What sort of trends do you mean? Because saying on a national radio station that there will be rain on a certain date and no rain on another date and claiming to be accurate is not about trends, it exact forecasting. (Which coincidentally almost always is wrong).

Kenring · 05-12-2010 1:39am

thetonynator wrote: »

You say it is about trends. What sort of trends do you mean? Because saying on a national radio station that there will be rain on a certain date and no rain on another date and claiming to be accurate is not about trends, it exact forecasting. (Which coincidentally almost always is wrong).

Okay, here's what I mean. I said, on Nov 30 "as soon as tomorrow's perigee is over and the moon crosses over to the south, then conditions should become considerably milder rather quickly".
The BBC Said for 4th Dec:
"Some changes today as the serious deep cold is pushed away thanks to a weather system coming in from the northwest. Therefore the snow showers that have been affecting eastern areas for so much of this week have finally died out, whilst outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are coming into north-western areas.."
I had email last night from a UK correspondent who said The bone-bitingly cold east wind dropped in the UK on the 3rd, and the temperature never got above freezing. The clouds have rolled over and it already feels slightly warmer. The TV pundits predict a warmer week-end.

So it seems that I was correct about milder conditions coming in once the perigee at declination -06*22' had worked itself through. That was the trend. If I had said this weather over the next few days is going to get even colder, I would have been incorrect. As it was, I believe the moon method has value in that it can predict this sort of thing successfully. And in itself it is useful because plans may be made that may be economically advantageous, like a shop stocking up on winter clothing when the coldest periods are expected, or selling umbrellas on wet days.

A trend is not specific weather at Carlow or at Dublin on a specific day, but more like over a week. The figures I put out are focus points for the trend, i.e. rising or falling temperatures, but focussing on the figures as actual values misses the point of all forecasting, which is too inexact to stand such examination. One street will always be cooler than the next street, one valley will always get more rain than a neighbouring one because it faces the SW or whatever.

It's a bit like trying to put a numerical value to happiness. We can't. But we can say I am happier today than yesterday, but not as happy as I will be tomorrow. Does that help you understand what I mean?

Wild Bill · 05-12-2010 3:22am

I'm a firm believer in Onion Rings when it comes to geo-climatic forecasts. When Saturn is in Meniscus then the cold blast is sure to track every which way (my emphasis). This isn't an exact prediction, more an impressionistic reflection of the true gravitational reality of the Universe.

Remember where you heard it first.

Max will be +1C in Rathdrum tomorrow. (Met Eireann) :cool:

snow ghost · 05-12-2010 3:33am

Wild Bill wrote: »

I'm a firm believer in Onion Rings when it comes to geo-climatic forecasts. When Saturn is in Meniscus then the cold blast is sure to track every which way (my emphasis). This isn't an exact prediction, more an impressionistic reflection of the true gravitational reality of the Universe.

I'm a firm believer in Chaos Theory myself - when a butterfly farts in New Zealand I can smell BS in Ireland.

darol15 · 05-12-2010 10:33am

soo long story short will the weather worsen by say th 17th od december ?
my christmas tests lol or will it get better ?

Wild Bill · 05-12-2010 10:45am

If you are focused and study hard it will get better. I'm guessin' English isn't one of yer best subjects?

darol15 · 05-12-2010 11:30am

sounds lik alot of work

yer im in honours anyway

desolate sun · 05-12-2010 11:48am

Accuweather has Ireland into double figures by next weekend. Then down to about 3 and 4 by the 17th. I don't care if we get mild weather now as long as we get cold and snow for Christmas.
What do the weather peeps here think? Is there much milder weather coming in and will it get cold again?
Here where I am, we didn't experience anything like the East got, so I am waiting for some decent snowfalls

Wild Bill · 05-12-2010 11:53am

Young Darol, for that I promise you 10cm of snow on the 17th. I've been reading the Joe Bastardi column (linked above) and my Onion Ring is adamant the cold funnel will not drift southeastwards. And my Ring got more forecasts correct than the Paul the Octopus (RIP).

I see a traditional blocking Scandinavian High building over, funnily enough, Scandinavia.

Of course we don't want it drawing air up from the Eastern Med so it will move westwards every ten days allowing a flow of polar lows to flow from the pole, blanketing us with three days of heavy snowfall every ten days.

The following calm clear periods will see temperatures fall to -30C in midland areas.

On the 15th February Ireland's first snow-hotel will be built in Coosan, outside Athlone.

This oscillating block will be maintained till early April - the Onion Ring can't see further than that at the moment - the signals from the troposphere are very faint apparently.

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 12:43pm

To be honest Ken Ring i think you are full of BS , you cant seem to answer a straight question without resorting to crap .
Heres a question for you that might just begin to restore a smidgen of credibility in my eyes anyway , if you cant answer it thats fine dont bother replying .
Simple question : will it snow on the 25th of December in Ireland , and if so where ? , simple

.

darol15 · 05-12-2010 12:49pm

ur onion ring is talkin ****e lol wud be nice do

Kenring · 05-12-2010 1:33pm

jamesoc wrote: »

To be honest Ken Ring i think you are full of BS , you cant seem to answer a straight question without resorting to crap .
Heres a question for you that might just begin to restore a smidgen of credibility in my eyes anyway , if you cant answer it thats fine dont bother replying .
Simple question : will it snow on the 25th of December in Ireland , and if so where ? , simple .

Ask the onion ring guy, I've done my bit. No one wants discussion, just pokes and digs.

Dotsie~tmp · 05-12-2010 1:36pm

Where might i purchase these onion-ring forecasts?

Faithfully.
I.R. Gobshytington.

Danno · 05-12-2010 2:42pm

This cold spell has been worse than last January. Colder, more snow and ice too.

i.e. Lowest here was -12.7c this December VS -12.0c last January.
Max snow was 5" this December VS 3" last January.

thetonynator · 05-12-2010 4:51pm

Danno wrote: »

This cold spell has been worse than last January. Colder, more snow and ice too.

i.e. Lowest here was -12.7c this December VS -12.0c last January.
Max snow was 5" this December VS 3" last January.

Actual cold spell might be shorter, not sure how you would measure that, but snow cover her is much longer, 9 days and counting compared to only 4/4.5 last january.

Gonzo · 05-12-2010 5:06pm

this cold spell is way better than the one we had last January. The Isle Of Man shadow never left us alone for 2 whole weeks and as a result we only had 2 inchs of snow vs almost a foot of snow this time around.

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 5:14pm

Kenring wrote: »

Ask the onion ring guy, I've done my bit. No one wants discussion, just pokes and digs.

Ah right the old '' Ive been insulted '' excuse not to answer a question

, well Ken I'm not overly impressed by snake oil salesmen myself , anyway back on topic , if not for my benefit then maybe for the benefit of the snow hope-rs of this bankrupt little Isle , will it snow in Ireland this Christmas , and if so where ?, in your scientific opinion of course

.

nacho libre · 05-12-2010 5:33pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Actual cold spell might be shorter, not sure how you would measure that, but snow cover her is much longer, 9 days and counting compared to only 4/4.5 last january.

Yes this cold period has in fact been shorter in terms of severe cold. as we've seen in the past few days temperatues reach 7 c in some places. For 11 - 12 days back in late December into January i don't think any place recorded temperatures of 7c.

Villain · 05-12-2010 5:49pm

Kenring wrote: »

Ask the onion ring guy, I've done my bit. No one wants discussion, just pokes and digs.

LOL you couldn't be more wrong Mr Ring, YOU are the one that doesn't want discussion, you just want to make excuses and ignore what you have said in the past.

You denied saying you can forecast down to the day years in advance, the you admit saying it but it was in "Jest". It certainly wasn't in "Jest" it was a PR Sales sound bite.

Then you say you said that the last week of November would be very cold, yet the paid forecasts you sold say the total opposite.

You try and make excuses about the conditions been like that within 80 miles yet within 500 miles there was no-where any where near what you forecast not even a distant Valley.

Then when all excuses fail you say its an opinion, well Mr Ring if all you have is an incorrect opinion then maybe you should state that when on Radio Shows and your website so people know what they are paying for.

You don't want any discussion that you can't control or manipulate.

Pangea · 05-12-2010 5:53pm

I had more days of snow cover last winter, this is without a doubt shorter.
I probably had more snow last winter, so for me last winters freeze was much worse, with ice and snow lying for the most part of a month.

opinion guy · 05-12-2010 6:05pm

Pangea wrote: »

I had more days of snow cover last winter, this is without a doubt shorter.
I probably had more snow last winter, so for me last winters freeze was much worse, with ice and snow lying for the most part of a month.

Agreed. This is in no way comparable yet.

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 6:29pm

opinion guy wrote: »

Agreed. This is in no way comparable yet.

Bear in mind that last winters freeze was a twinkle in the eye at this stage last year , already this past week has been far colder than last Dec/Jan down here in the SW , if the chap from Carlow 'villian' says Rings forecasts are totally wrong then thats proof enough for me , he actually purchaced the forecasts , did you ? .

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 6:31pm

Pangea wrote: »

I had more days of snow cover last winter, this is without a doubt shorter.
I probably had more snow last winter, so for me last winters freeze was much worse, with ice and snow lying for the most part of a month.

Beginning when ? .

Villain · 05-12-2010 6:31pm

jamesoc wrote: »

Bear in mind that last winters freeze was a twinkle in the eye at this stage last year , already this past week has been far colder than last Dec/Jan down here in the SW , if the chap from Carlow 'villian' says Rings forecasts are totally wrong then thats proof enough for me , he actually purchaced the forecasts , did you ? .

Yep

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 6:36pm

Villain wrote: »

Yep

BTW in the interests of fair play i would love to hear from any others who have purchased Rings forecasts , if you are satisfied with his methods and happy with his forecasts lets hear about it .

opinion guy · 05-12-2010 7:16pm

jamesoc wrote: »

Bear in mind that last winters freeze was a twinkle in the eye at this stage last year , already this past week has been far colder than last Dec/Jan down here in the SW , if the chap from Carlow 'villian' says Rings forecasts are totally wrong then thats proof enough for me , he actually purchaced the forecasts , did you ? .

No. Dude I'm clueless about this stuff - don't know who or what Ring is. But I do have a good memory and I do know jan/feb speel lasted 4 weeks at least and this is not near that yet. Also - aren't some folks predicting a milder winter towards february. I don't expect that just because things start out this way they will stay this way. I've lived on the continent - often winters that are cold early end up quite mild on balance

patneve2 · 05-12-2010 8:00pm

Latest ECM 12Z @240hrs:

Long way off, but nearly all the major models are all contemplating the solution of renewed strong northern blocking. Fingers crossed. :cool:

p.s. impressive chart (long way off so pinch of salt needed)

Musicman2000 · 05-12-2010 8:24pm

Was justh watching the forecast on country file over on BBC 1 he said it would get a littel bit milder towards the weekend, But its not going last, so there could be hints of a cold spell coming back and most of the models are hinting at something, but thinks will change over the next week or so, be intertesting to watch

thetonynator · 05-12-2010 8:45pm

Pangea wrote: »

I had more days of snow cover last winter, this is without a doubt shorter.
I probably had more snow last winter, so for me last winters freeze was much worse, with ice and snow lying for the most part of a month.

For this part of the country anyway there has been snow cover for much longer, 5 days longer already and no sign of a full thaw yet. Also, min temps this timw were marginally ( 0.1!) colder than min last year, and we had several ice days this year too, as many as last year.

thetonynator · 05-12-2010 8:50pm

Well into FI!!!

nacho libre · 05-12-2010 9:01pm

I wonder has ireland ever had -20 upper air over it?

thetonynator · 05-12-2010 9:06pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I wonder has ireland ever had -20 upper air over it?

47/63 maybe? Are there charts for those years available???

Wild Bill · 05-12-2010 9:45pm

Just for the record; there has been 100% snow cover in Sandyford since Sat 25th November; mostly below freezing (lowest -11C) and occasional slight thaws (max in the period +3C).

Accumulation by last snowfall (Friday) was just 28cm; there is still 25cm on undisturbed surfaces.

No green grass visible anywhere since the night of 24th November.

This is most unusual.

Winter 2010-2011 outlook

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