Economic and Social Research Institute Forecast

Rented Mule · 29-04-2009 9:05am #1

The Economic and Social Research Institute has forecast that 300,000 Irish jobs will be wiped out before the end of next year as the recession deepens.

Wait !!!! It gets better !!!

It also expects that the rate of unemployment will average 17% in 2010.

...but they're not done yet !!

In its most downbeat economic assessment ever, the ESRI also expects that by the end of next year living standards in Ireland will be 15% lower than in 2007.

....now they're just gettin' warmed up !!

The report says economic output will shrink by 9.2% this year.

Now Cowen/Linehan are prepared for all of this ......right ??

This contraction in the economy is significantly bigger than the Government assumed in the budget.

The report says the Government will lose an additional €1.3bn in tax receipts this year.

Huh ?? That can't be right. I mean, they obviously asked the business community how this would affect them in the long right .....right ?

The ESRI says it is fearful that any further increase in income taxes will make it harder for employers to achieve wage cuts, which it says are vital to restoring the overall competitiveness of the economy.

i guess not.

seamus · 29-04-2009 9:12am

The ESRI should be scrapped. They're the biggest waste of space and money that the Government has. They're consistently wrong in their forecasts - they've spent the last 3 years revising their forecasts as the economy changed. What they do is look at what's been happening over the last 6 months and then project that over 12 or 18 months with no change. That's economics for 5-year-olds. I don't know why we're paying these people at all.

egan007 · 29-04-2009 9:16am

ESRI, JOE Economist have you not all realised that they are all talking through their a5s they havn't a clue what's going to happen. So get the head down work your ass off and we can get gout of this the only way it is possible to....i.e. by working - genertaing money - and spending it.

Rented Mule · 29-04-2009 9:36am

egan007 wrote: »

ESRI, JOE Economist have you not all realised that they are all talking through their a5s they havn't a clue what's going to happen. So get the head down work your ass off and we can get gout of this the only way it is possible to....i.e. by working - genertaing money - and spending it.

I do agree with what you are saying, but thsi current governement was more interested in taxing than trying to out forth an innitiative to try and create jobs.

In the meantime, we are seeing jobs disappearing at an alarming rate, with many more to come or more to the point 'go'.

Rabies · 29-04-2009 9:40am

Moved before its gets destroyed and becomes the same never ending AH recession topic.

Intellingent discussion for this thread.

6ix · 29-04-2009 9:41am

seamus wrote: »

The ESRI should be scrapped. They're the biggest waste of space and money that the Government has. They're consistently wrong in their forecasts - they've spent the last 3 years revising their forecasts as the economy changed. What they do is look at what's been happening over the last 6 months and then project that over 12 or 18 months with no change. That's economics for 5-year-olds. I don't know why we're paying these people at all.

+1.

If anything, this forecast is being very optimistic.

eamonnm79 · 29-04-2009 6:42pm

6ix wrote: »

+1.

If anything, this forecast is being very optimistic.

+1
Agreed its very optimistic.
Not least because our GDP figure is overstating our actual position. There is a 30billion difference between GNP and GDP in Ireland, the main reason? Our GDP is inflated due to Multinational output being channeled through Ireland for corpo tax reasons.

The source is the eastern european economics professor rom DCU, forget his name now but he has a personal forum and he was saying this.

hatrickpatrick · 03-05-2009 8:11pm

Oh great, just what this country needs. More doom and gloom.

Why are we still listening to these people? They're the same people who, less than a year ago, told us 2009 would be a slightly worse year than previous years with a return to growth in 2010. They're the same people who said that we probably wouldn't end up in a full scale recession and that the fundamentals of our economy were still strong (October 2007).

Seriously, that sort of incompetence would discredit any forecaster working in any other business. Can you imagine if Met Eireann screwed up this bad on a constant basis? RTE would terminate their contract and find someone else to do the weather! The ESRI have proven themselves incapable of seeing more than a month into the future. At this point I think it's safe to say they're the least reliable source of economic information in the entire country, with the possible exception of our wonderfully ignorant Department of Finance.

zod · 04-05-2009 11:16am

From the people who told us : (taken from McWilliams in the post)

Less that a year ago - just think about that: a mere 12 months ago - the ESRI released a forecast for the Irish economy, predicting that for the next seven years, Ireland would ‘‘grow by 3.75 per cent on average per annum’’. It went on to say that, after a blip in 2009, ‘‘the economy would continue to outperform its EU neighbours’’. Consistently since 2005, it said that a ‘‘soft landing’’ in the property market was the most likely outcome, with a collapse a ‘‘possibility’’ . . .but just that.

To put this week’s dismal forecast in context, let’s see more of what the experts in their new building in the docklands said last year: ‘‘Even if current difficulties prove more severe than anticipated, the economy is resilient.” Really?

Joey the lips · 04-05-2009 12:14pm

For discussion not attacking

if the ESRI is so bad where are they getting there stats from. My understanding is from the CSO. Are we supplying the goverment with incorrect stats on our spending etc. Is there a chance the data collection is unreliable???

Anybody know!

eamonnm79 · 04-05-2009 3:37pm

Joey the lips wrote: »

For discussion not attacking if the ESRI is so bad where are they getting there stats from. My understanding is from the CSO. Are we supplying the goverment with incorrect stats on our spending etc. Is there a chance the data collection is unreliable???

Anybody know!

All the stats coming from government sources are likely to be politisised.
For 2 excellent examples of this in the US see shadowstats.com and the fuzzy numbers chapter in chrismartensons crash course.
For a domestic example take a look at th macro economic report in the recent budget. The DEPT of finance areopenly admitting their forcasts are optimistic. The phrase they use is "much higher degree of risk for downside":)
Its not so much a matter of the stats being incorrect as the stats are presented in a certain way.
The CPI inflation rate measurement in the US does not include housing and food, even though thats what people spend their money on.

Économiste Monétaire · 04-05-2009 3:53pm

eamonnm79 wrote: »

All the stats coming from government sources are likely to be politisised.
For 2 excellent examples of this in the US see shadowstats.com and the fuzzy numbers chapter in chrismartensons crash course.
For a domestic example take a look at th macro economic report in the recent budget. The DEPT of finance areopenly admitting their forcasts are optimistic. The phrase they use is "much higher degree of risk for downside":)
Its not so much a matter of the stats being incorrect as the stats are presented in a certain way.
The CPI inflation rate measurement in the US does not include housing and food, even though thats what people spend their money on.

Food accounts for over 14% of the weighting in the BLS CPI-U figures.

Joey the lips · 04-05-2009 4:41pm

eamonnm79 wrote: »

All the stats coming from government sources are likely to be politisised.
For 2 excellent examples of this in the US see shadowstats.com and the fuzzy numbers chapter in chrismartensons crash course.
For a domestic example take a look at th macro economic report in the recent budget. The DEPT of finance areopenly admitting their forcasts are optimistic. The phrase they use is "much higher degree of risk for downside":)
Its not so much a matter of the stats being incorrect as the stats are presented in a certain way.
The CPI inflation rate measurement in the US does not include housing and food, even though thats what people spend their money on.

Ok Cool so who's stats do we trust and more importantly if the goverment know what they are issuing is wrong surly behind the scenes they are acting based on the correct facts?

and if knot would it not be conspir theory to assume the goverment know something but are acting against the advice!

Just wondering becuase it makes not sense to say the stats are wrong and the govt are not acting on the correct one's

Economic and Social Research Institute Forecast

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