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12-12-2019, 22:31   #121
Snow Garden
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Tomorrow night will answer so many questions.
In what way?
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12-12-2019, 22:38   #122
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I forecast a soft brexit followed by our economy pushing on again.. really don’t see a recession due to brexit.
If however there was a global downturn the back end of next year we would feel it eventually.
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12-12-2019, 22:45   #123
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It will make the last recession look like cakewalk, this country will be hit particularly bad all over again. I actually welcome it as it might make buying a house affordable unlike now.

The current global financial system is so overloaded with debt that this crisis is inevitable and if it stays as a financial crisis we will be okay but there is a very real existential threat of it spilling into a war or wars, Gold is being hoarded at never before seen volumes and something very big is just around the corner.
Agree with the above, although I dont subscribe to the view that property prices will take a big hit. The housing sector is no where near leveraged like it was last time, quality of lending is significantly better and the banks are much more capitalised.

And the debit this time around corporate debt and not consumer debt, of which around 40% is carried by China.
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16-12-2019, 21:02   #124
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I forecast a soft brexit followed by our economy pushing on again.. really don’t see a recession due to brexit.
If however there was a global downturn the back end of next year we would feel it eventually.
A soft brexit means the UK staying in the SM and/or CU.

Is this likely?

So far it looks like a hard Brexit?
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16-12-2019, 21:10   #125
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Records broken in world markets again, S&P ploughing on, at some point Im going to have to get back into the market and that will be when it crashes, or will it?
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16-12-2019, 21:12   #126
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We still looking good? Will I crack on building the hotels and eating breakfast rolls or should I buy the off license now?
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17-12-2019, 01:04   #127
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Records broken in world markets again, S&P ploughing on, at some point Im going to have to get back into the market and that will be when it crashes, or will it?
Don't stop mining 3 feet from gold.

When it falls, it'll fall fast and hard. 2 years tops, 5 months minimum.
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17-12-2019, 18:50   #128
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Don't stop mining 3 feet from gold.

When it falls, it'll fall fast and hard. 2 years tops, 5 months minimum.
What do reckon as the instigator, and what are the indicators or signs we are that we are heading or well on in that direction?
I think it's been previously said that corporate debt is going to be one of the drivers, as that falls out there will be a banking exposure, a share and pension fund exposure as well. So a sort of dotcom bust... not confined to the dotcoms ?
Cheers
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20-12-2019, 15:40   #129
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What do reckon as the instigator, and what are the indicators or signs we are that we are heading or well on in that direction?
I think it's been previously said that corporate debt is going to be one of the drivers, as that falls out there will be a banking exposure, a share and pension fund exposure as well. So a sort of dotcom bust... not confined to the dotcoms ?
Cheers
Corporate and sovereign debt. Some big multinationals are going to go the wall in 2020 and 2021.
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02-02-2020, 22:45   #130
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Is the coronavirus the black swan?
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02-02-2020, 22:48   #131
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The next recession will be a depression which will be more devastating than any in human history. One can only guess when the next recession will start. My guess is October, 2019.
Wow. You really were spot on with that prediction.
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03-02-2020, 00:10   #132
InstaSte
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Wow. You really were spot on with that prediction.
Isn't that when the REPO market ramped up?

Could be right yet.
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03-02-2020, 09:09   #133
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China markets down heavily this morning. That's with state pumping in billions.

US futures are up however, Chinese investors must be flooding into US equities. You'd think the US firms earnings are linked to China though so will be interesting to see what the end of today looks like there.

The rate of infections seems to have stabilised or slightly increased so this might not last too long.
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03-02-2020, 10:57   #134
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The rate of infections seems to have stabilised or slightly increased so this might not last too long.
There are no indications of such, if anything the last 2 days show an marked increase on previous days.
Global Figures for the today (3rd feb) won't be available until end 21:00 EST.

Int'l states with it (27) are still controllable, but x10 have reached double figures, if that reaches triple figures, the risk of control goes out the window.



This, and the effects of (17,000+ in China) will last for months, most factories and int'l stores there won't resume normal operating hours until it's fully under control.

The HangSeng has stabilsed somewhat, but that's factoring in the ¥/$bn's being thrown at it.
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03-02-2020, 11:02   #135
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There are no indications of such, if anything the last 2 days show an marked increase on previous days.
Global Figures for the today (3rd feb) won't be available until end 21:00 EST.

Int'l states with it (27) are still controllable, but x10 have reached double figures, if that reaches triple figures, the risk of control goes out the window.



This, and the effects of (17,000+ in China) will last for months, most factories and int'l stores there won't resume normal operating hours until it's fully under control.

The HangSeng has stabilsed somewhat, but that's factoring in the ¥/$bn's being thrown at it.
This dashboard is wrong?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

It's getting updated but according to yours it's incorrect.
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