Hurricane PAULA

Tropical Storm Paula

I saw mentioned on another forum that this is following a similar origin & trajectory to Hurricane's Wilma and Mitch. Would love to get an opinion or some direction where I can find information on the amount of hurricanes that developed along this path and how they progressed. Does the fact that it is coming from this area at the end of the hurricane season mean it will encounter warmer currents and be more likely to develop faster and be more intense?

Appreciate any info I can get.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120844
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION SECTION

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY

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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.