Scottish independence

Peregrinus · 24-06-2020 3:03am

Aegir wrote: »

The only reason Boris has a sizable majority is because there was nothing in the way of credible opposition at the last election. Now Labour has a decent leader, that may well change in both Westminster and Holyrood.

The only reason Boris has a sizeable majority now is because of FPTP; if the UK used a proportional electoral system he wouldn't have a majority at all, never mind a sizeable one.

I agree with you that the Labour offering was appalling. But if we're honest the Tory offering was equally appalling. Clearly, having an appalling offering is no bar to securing a thumping majority under FPTP. One of the main drawbacks of FPTP, really, is that is hugely narrows the options realistically available, usually down to just two, and so can leave the voter in a situation where the only alternative to a truly awful offering is another truly awful offering.

Basically, in a Westminster election, voters can be asked the equivalent of "would you rather be flogged with nettles, or smeared with honey and thrown into an ants' nest?" Trying to read into their answer opinions about a nuanced question such as Scottish independence is basically a waste of time.

And yet Westminster election results are relevant to the Indy question, but in a completely different way. If we ask ourselves not "what do the Scots think about independence?" but "what does Westminster think about Scottish independence?", then Westminster cares about the loss of Scottish seats. The Tories have a few Scottish seats to lose; Labour have virtually none, but they do face the loss of the not-negligible possibility of SNP support for a Labour government. And therefore on electoral considerations Labour are more threatened by Scottish independence than the Tories are.

murphaph · 24-06-2020 8:21am

Exactly. FPTP usually forces the voter to vote tactically to keep out who they really don't want. If we'd had it in Ireland then FF would have won every election since SF took up their seats in the Dáil as people would have voted for them to keep SF out.

You can't vote for the party you actually want in in most constituencies. It's a wretched system.

A Dub in Glasgo · 24-06-2020 8:26am

Aegir wrote: »

If you went for the AM approach to the UK parliament, then the SNP would still have less seats than they have now.

of course

The only reason Boris has a sizable majority is because there was nothing in the way of credible opposition at the last election. Now Labour has a decent leader, that may well change in both Westminster and Holyrood.

You are totally missing the point, the only reason Johnson has a sizeable majority is because of FPTP

24-06-2020 8:49am

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

of course

You are totally missing the point, the only reason Johnson has a sizeable majority is because of FPTP

Why exactly are you shifting goalposts. FPTP was not being discussed and was irrelevant to the thread. You had a little rant about Boris (choosing to use a childish name) and have now decided to move the goal posts.

A Dub in Glasgo · 24-06-2020 8:55am

You were the one stating

The “big two” have 54 of the 129 seats at the Scottish parliament. I’d hardly call that a lack of support

The reason for that is due to the non-use of FPTP. If the Scot Parl used FPTP then the 'big two' would have very little support in the parliament and you would not be able to make the statement above

I said it is a pity that the UK parl does not use a similar system as Johnson would not have a huge majority

A Dub in Glasgo · 05-07-2020 11:23am

The Sunday Times has a poll today

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1279708024370798595

Mr.Nice Guy · 05-07-2020 9:05pm

Significant comment from John Curtice, one of the most knowledgeable pollsters in the UK:

https://twitter.com/kacnutt/status/1279736796218380288

Saw this quote in the Sunday Times article too:

"There is increasing gloom among senior unionist politicians in Conservative and Labour ranks in Scotland that independence is inevitable."

Certainly looks like the momentum is with independence now. The next twelve months will be huge. The danger for the Tories is the more they deny a referendum, the more the numbers may go up. At some point they have to confront the issue head on.

eire4 · 05-07-2020 9:35pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Sunday Times has a poll today

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1279708024370798595

The difference in the handling of the virus no doubt playing a factor but with London still being so intransigent in saying no to an independence referendum I think being the major factor.

pixelburp · 05-07-2020 10:39pm

One potentially intriguing part of that poll is it reminds how a post independence Scotland could effectively be a one party state. It's the height of speculation but I'd wonder what would become of Hollyroods structure in the dissolution of the main 3 "UK" parties; the union would be history so politicians would need to adjust their outlook accordingly. Indeed would there be scope for splinter SNP? Division would surely announce itself in light of deciding what KIND of independent Scotland was governed.

Peregrinus · 06-07-2020 2:27am

pixelburp wrote: »

One potentially intriguing part of that poll is it reminds how a post independence Scotland could effectively be a one party state. It's the height of speculation but I'd wonder what would become of Hollyroods structure in the dissolution of the main 3 "UK" parties; the union would be history so politicians would need to adjust their outlook accordingly. Indeed would there be scope for splinter SNP? Division would surely announce itself in light of deciding what KIND of independent Scotland was governed.

That's exactly the issue that we faced here a hundred years ago. It was commonly expected that an independent Irish republic would be electorally dominated by Sinn Fein. The Civil War, of course, meant that didn't happen, but that wan't foreseen.

This was one of the reasons for adopting the single transferrable vote, which greatly reduces the power of the party effectively to nomninate the members of parliament that it wants, as happens in the UK. With STV the party presents a slate of candidates, and party supporters can influence the party in ways that is not possible in the UK by, e.g., giving higher preferences to the more left-wing or right-wing candidates on the panel. This also encourages candidates from the same party to compete with one another by appeal to the voters, rather than by appealing to the party bosses.

Tehre was also a proposal that Ministers should be accountable to specialist Dail Committees, one for each Department. Decades later we did introduce such a system, but a very watered-down version of the fairly robust system that was proposed at the time.

In Scotland, I think you'd see a number of things happening following independence, but one is considerable pressure on the unity of the Scots Nationalists. At the moment they are cemented together by their Great Project, but once that is acheived they have to find a new course to steer, and I think there will be tensions between left and right wings, rural and urban interests, etc, etc. Voters will also have a wider choice; at the moment you can't vote for, e.g., a right-of-centre party without also voting in support of the union. Once that link is broken space will open up for a party in the European Christian Democratic tradition, and unless they're very stupid the Scottish Tories will try to reinvent themselves as that party. If they don't,someone else certainly will. Similar opportunities are open to the Scottish Labour Party, and the Liberal Democrats.

BonnieSituation · 06-07-2020 4:30am

pixelburp wrote: »

One potentially intriguing part of that poll is it reminds how a post independence Scotland could effectively be a one party state. It's the height of speculation but I'd wonder what would become of Hollyroods structure in the dissolution of the main 3 "UK" parties; the union would be history so politicians would need to adjust their outlook accordingly. Indeed would there be scope for splinter SNP? Division would surely announce itself in light of deciding what KIND of independent Scotland was governed.

It truly is but they have the benefit of watching a hundred years of us.

The SNP will inevitably split left and right etc, but there's no way they'll let the big fish out if their grasp. It's oddly ne'er been closer despite them having indyref1 in 2014.

Covid has been a massive endorsement of the ability of the smaller nation. Even the North has managed it better than England.

The trick for the SNP though is to hope that the Tories continue in power past the next Holyrood elections. They need that result to be so overwhelming that even this decrepit, disgusting Little Englander Tory government can't refuse indyref2.

A Starmer Labour government is a bit too attractive for any fence sitters.

I can't wait.

eire4 · 06-07-2020 3:45pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It truly is but they have the benefit of watching a hundred years of us.

The SNP will inevitably split left and right etc, but there's no way they'll let the big fish out if their grasp. It's oddly ne'er been closer despite them having indyref1 in 2014.

Covid has been a massive endorsement of the ability of the smaller nation. Even the North has managed it better than England.

The trick for the SNP though is to hope that the Tories continue in power past the next Holyrood elections. They need that result to be so overwhelming that even this decrepit, disgusting Little Englander Tory government can't refuse indyref2.

A Starmer Labour government is a bit too attractive for any fence sitters.

I can't wait.

Well the next Holyrood Scottish assembly elections are May 2021 so less then a year away and no chance the Tories will not still be in power in London. I would imagine the Scottish assembly election will be fought on the basis of gaining a mandate for a new independence referendum. The fact that it looks more likely now that as of January 1 2021 the UK will have no trade deal with the EU will if it happens be a boost for the SNP as well I would think.

View · 07-07-2020 12:43am

eire4 wrote: »

Well the next Holyrood Scottish assembly elections are May 2021 so less then a year away and no chance the Tories will not still be in power in London. I would imagine the Scottish assembly election will be fought on the basis of gaining a mandate for a new independence referendum. The fact that it looks more likely now that as of January 1 2021 the UK will have no trade deal with the EU will if it happens be a boost for the SNP as well I would think.

It doesn’t matter what the result of the next Scottish Assembly elections is. Both of the major Westminster parties are completely hostile to the idea of another independence referendum there, so it’s a non-starter for at least the next decade. Scottish voters had their independence referendum and are stuck with their decision.

OneEightSeven · 07-07-2020 2:29am

Panelbase/Sunday Times overestimated the SNP's popularity by 3 - 5% in Spring 2016. This is their highest yet, but they'll need to do a bit better before we get too excited.

Peregrinus · 07-07-2020 7:01am

View wrote: »

It doesn’t matter what the result of the next Scottish Assembly elections is. Both of the major Westminster parties are completely hostile to the idea of another independence referendum there, so it’s a non-starter for at least the next decade. Scottish voters had their independence referendum and are stuck with their decision.

Unless, of course, within that timeframe one or other of the Westminister majors needs the support of the SNP to form a government.

View · 07-07-2020 10:08am

Peregrinus wrote: »

Unless, of course, within that timeframe one or other of the Westminister majors needs the support of the SNP to form a government.

Given the scale of their victory in the last GE, it will probably be ten years before Labour has any realistic prospect of ousting the Conservatives from office.

listermint · 07-07-2020 10:11am

View wrote: »

Given the scale of their victory in the last GE, it will probably be ten years before Labour has any realistic prospect of ousting the Conservatives from office.

Thats a hilarious take , The Tories will be fired out of a cannon on the next election.

You clearly have not been following events.

View · 07-07-2020 1:34pm

listermint wrote: »

Thats a hilarious take , The Tories will be fired out of a cannon on the next election.

You clearly have not been following events.

I have been following events.

There is no precedent for a party overturning an 80 seat majority that a governing party has, therefore it will almost certainly take two elections for Labour to have any reasonable chance at victory.

In addition, there is a long overdue reform of seats in the HoC due to go through Parliament. That reform increases the number of seats in the south of England (ie in Conservative voting areas) and decreases the number of seats in the north of the England (ie Labour voting areas). That in itself makes Labour’s task significantly more difficult than it already is.

And, just to remind you, Labour has stated that it too is opposed to another Scottish referendum, so even if they pull off an electoral miracle, it is unlikely they would offer a referendum if they can at all avoid it.

bob mcbob · 07-07-2020 8:37pm

View wrote: »

I have been following events.

There is no precedent for a party overturning an 80 seat majority that a governing party has, therefore it will almost certainly take two elections for Labour to have any reasonable chance at victory.

In addition, there is a long overdue reform of seats in the HoC due to go through Parliament. That reform increases the number of seats in the south of England (ie in Conservative voting areas) and decreases the number of seats in the north of the England (ie Labour voting areas). That in itself makes Labour’s task significantly more difficult than it already is.

And, just to remind you, Labour has stated that it too is opposed to another Scottish referendum, so even if they pull off an electoral miracle, it is unlikely they would offer a referendum if they can at all avoid it.

Did you catch this last year -

An SNP majority at the next Holyrood elections in 2021 would provide a “democratic mandate” for a second independence referendum for Scotland, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-snp-boris-johnson-indyref2-conservatives-a9209061.html

Even a Tory minister recognises that!

Water John · 07-07-2020 10:19pm

The mandate for Irish independence is not based on the Easter Rising of 1916 but on the GE of 1918 where Sinn Fein won most of the seats.
The Easter Rising would only have had minority support in 1916, so two years can lead to dramatic change. The onset of Brexit will be a sea change and no one can predict the outcome.
However it is likely that Kier Starmer will perform very well. The SNP will likely also do well in this environment and thus having the majority of seats on an election promise of Independence gives them a mandate.

A Dub in Glasgo · 07-07-2020 10:56pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

Did you catch this last year -

An SNP majority at the next Holyrood elections in 2021 would provide a “democratic mandate” for a second independence referendum for Scotland, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-snp-boris-johnson-indyref2-conservatives-a9209061.html

Even a Tory minister recognises that!

To be fair, that means absolutely nothing to the current breed of duplicitous Tories (Jack is a Tory toff who is an ally of Johnson). 75% of the people in Scotland may back another referendum and the Tories would still not allow it

eire4 · 07-07-2020 11:11pm

View wrote: »

It doesn’t matter what the result of the next Scottish Assembly elections is. Both of the major Westminster parties are completely hostile to the idea of another independence referendum there, so it’s a non-starter for at least the next decade. Scottish voters had their independence referendum and are stuck with their decision.

It is just that kind of attitude which will lead to more and more support for Scottish independence and the more intransigent London is through next May will just ensure a big win for the SNP next May 2021. Which will then be the mandate for Scottish independence and the referendum something which even the Scottish secretary Alister Jack recognised recently.

View · 08-07-2020 12:00am

bob mcbob wrote: »

Did you catch this last year -

An SNP majority at the next Holyrood elections in 2021 would provide a “democratic mandate” for a second independence referendum for Scotland, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-snp-boris-johnson-indyref2-conservatives-a9209061.html

Even a Tory minister recognises that!

Alister Jack isn’t Boris Johnson. The latter’s opinion trumps that of the former.

Peregrinus · 08-07-2020 4:30am

View wrote: »

I have been following events.

There is no precedent for a party overturning an 80 seat majority that a governing party has, therefore it will almost certainly take two elections for Labour to have any reasonable chance at victory.

There certainly is. Labour went into the 1970 election with a majority of 98, and lost. The Tories went into the 1964 election with a majority of 100, and lost. And, although they didn't lose office, the Tories lost 81 seats in the 1992 general election, and Labour lost 101 seats in the 2005 general election. So 80 seats or more is a hill that has often been climbed in the past.

What there really is no precedent for, though, is any party being returned to power at five successive general elections. That literally has never happened. And the present hollowed-out, talent-free, Stockholm-syndrome Tory party doesn't look like the kind of outfit that might change that.

Sam Russell · 08-07-2020 10:18am

Surely the Tories will see that Scottish independence would remove 59 MPs from Westminster that do not return Tory MPs (well a few do, but in single numbers and sometimes just a single one) so grant independence and that will, more or less, guarantee a Tory majority in perpetuity. Of course, getting rid of NI would get rid of 18 more MPs that are not Tories, and a £10 billion drag on the economy.

So why not go for it - grant them their Indy Vote 2 and hope they go for it. They survived losing India. They survived losing Africa. They will survive losing Scotland.

England (and Wales) would be a better place for it. (Well, if you are a Tory, that is). Labour would have a very uphill job to get anywhere near government again.

Likewise, why did the Republican Senate not convict the impeached Trump, which would have made Pence President who would then walk the re-election, and be President for 8 more years. Trump was a liability - always was and always will be.

pixelburp · 08-07-2020 10:38am

Sam Russell wrote: »

Surely the Tories will see that Scottish independence would remove 59 MPs from Westminster that do not return Tory MPs (well a few do, but in single numbers and sometimes just a single one) so grant independence and that will, more or less, guarantee a Tory majority in perpetuity. Of course, getting rid of NI would get rid of 18 more MPs that are not Tories, and a £10 billion drag on the economy.

So why not go for it - grant them their Indy Vote 2 and hope they go for it. They survived losing India. They survived losing Africa. They will survive losing Scotland.

I'm not so sure they would: not that they'd want to admit it as such, but India and Africa were "acquisitions" of power, colonies to be exploited; the loss of Scotland would be something more symbolically powerful. It's a fundamental part of the very nomenclature of the UK itself - of the flag even. The commonality of England and Scotland in lock step seeps into the monarchs, with James I king of Scotland before he was became king of England. The northern country is part of "the home countries" as they used to call it, and I can't see how a Scotland sailing off into the sunset wouldn't cause a huge upheaval in the remaining English socio-political psyche. It'd be a divorce between centuries old "partners" with one half not even realising the other had been itching to go for quite a while.

Sam Russell · 08-07-2020 10:48am

pixelburp wrote: »

I'm not so sure they would: not that they'd want to admit it as such, but India and Africa were "acquisitions" of power, colonies to be exploited; the loss of Scotland would be something more symbolically powerful. It's a fundamental part of the very nomenclature of the UK itself - of the flag even. The commonality of England and Scotland in lock step seeps into the monarchs, with James I king of Scotland before he was became king of England. The northern country is part of "the home countries" as they used to call it, and I can't see how a Scotland sailing off into the sunset wouldn't cause a huge upheaval in the remaining English socio-political psyche. It'd be a divorce between centuries old "partners" with one half not even realising the other had been itching to go for quite a while.

Just a pedantic note - James VI os Scotland became James the first of England. It niggles the Scots the Queen Elizabeth II (of England) but Queen Elizabeth the First (of Scotland).

However, other than that, I agree with you. Losing Ireland was a deep deep wound that still rankles with the Tory class. Why did we want to leave? Why do we still want to be in the EU now that the mother country has left?

I was just trying to put party politics view above Tory nationalism - a thought experiment.

pixelburp · 08-07-2020 10:58am

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just a pedantic note - James VI os Scotland became James the first of England. It niggles the Scots the Queen Elizabeth II (of England) but Queen Elizabeth the First (of Scotland).

However, other than that, I agree with you. Losing Ireland was a deep deep wound that still rankles with the Tory class. Why did we want to leave? Why do we still want to be in the EU now that the mother country has left?

I was just trying to put party politics view above Tory nationalism - a thought experiment.

Well, true that's a fair point and undoubtedly there will be purely political calculations made. I dunno though, one would imagine whatever cabinet was in charge if/when Scotland left would be held to blame & turfed out for effectively slicing the economy in twain - though similar to Brexit the cultural impact would probably get reported more than the economic one. Guess that also depends on how England/Scotland discussions re. things like the North Sea, Trident bases etc. would pan out.

But then there's no evidence this current Tory government is that forward thinking anyway, so as you suggest they may selfishly put party politics ahead of rational thinking, seeing it purely as a numbers game. The conversation would doubtlessly switch quickly to a petty "yeah well we never liked you SNPs in Westminister anyway"

ArmaniJeanss · 08-07-2020 11:13am

View wrote: »

In addition, there is a long overdue reform of seats in the HoC due to go through Parliament. That reform increases the number of seats in the south of England (ie in Conservative voting areas) and decreases the number of seats in the north of the England (ie Labour voting areas). That in itself makes Labour’s task significantly more difficult than it already is.

I think this got quietly abandoned whilst everyone was concentrating on coronavirus back in March. Presumably many new Tories not thrilled with a reduction from 650 to 600 MPs.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mp-boundary-changes-quietly-ditched-21751191
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/government-boundary-review-constituency-mps-number-boris-johnson-a9422191.html

So (literally) back to the drawing board for the Boundary Commission to come up with a new set of borders for a 650 MP parliament - so quite likely it won't be ready for the next election.

CrabRevolution · 08-07-2020 12:15pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I think this got quietly abandoned whilst everyone was concentrating on coronavirus back in March. Presumably many new Tories not thrilled with a reduction from 650 to 600 MPs.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mp-boundary-changes-quietly-ditched-21751191
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/government-boundary-review-constituency-mps-number-boris-johnson-a9422191.html

So (literally) back to the drawing board for the Boundary Commission to come up with a new set of borders for a 650 MP parliament - so quite likely it won't be ready for the next election.

Is that the second time the plans were scrapped? I recall during May's government with the DUP, the proposed new boundaries were "revised" after they'd have resulted in the DUP losing a seat or 2 up North.

Scottish independence

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