Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

Raging_Ninja · 12-03-2019 12:35pm

IITYWYBMAD wrote: »

Can I ask what I know is a somewhat naive question with regards to 'stalling' in general?

As an example, if I was driving a manual car down an endless straight road at 30km per hour in 6th gear, the car would try to stall, as the speed versus the gear I'm in does not equate to normal driving and puts the engine and gearbox under strain. My solution, in this situation, is to drop the car into 2nd or 3rd gear, and continue driving the car, until I figure out what the issue was.

Now, translate that to an aircraft. Should the instruments be telling me that the aircraft is about to stall, are there not some 'default' settings I can put the plane into that ensure that the aircraft will not stall, while I figure out what is going on? Be this flap setting x and engine power at y. I realise that I'm trying to simplify what is a very complex task, and ignoring other factors like altitude, but surely there exists a 'default' position in situations like the Lion Air and (possibly) this situation, where the pilots can agree on a setting, turn off MCAS and take some time to figure what is most likely going on?

A stall in aerodynamic terms means that the wings are not generating lift and so the plane will start descending whether you want it to or not. Usually this is because the nose of the aircraft is at too high an angle.

The engines could be working perfectly but the pitch of the aircraft is such that there isn't enough air moving underneath the wings to stop it from falling out of the sky.

Given an infinite amount of time anyone ought to be able to figure out what is going wrong and come up with a corrective action. The problem is that when it happens on an aircraft you have a very finite amount of time before you turn into a crater.

The issue with his flight is that the aircraft right now does not appear to have been in a stall - the speculation is that, similar to what appears to have happened in the Lion Air crash 5 months ago, the device that is meant to prevent a stall (MCAS) activated when it shouldn't have.

IITYWYBMAD · 12-03-2019 12:50pm

Raging_Ninja wrote: »

A stall in aerodynamic terms means that the wings are not generating lift and so the plane will start descending whether you want it to or not. Usually this is because the nose of the aircraft is at too high an angle.

The engines could be working perfectly but the pitch of the aircraft is such that there isn't enough air moving underneath the wings to stop it from falling out of the sky.

Given an infinite amount of time anyone ought to be able to figure out what is going wrong and come up with a corrective action.

The problem is that when it happens on an aircraft you have a very finite amount of time before you turn into a crater.

The issue with his flight is that the aircraft right now does not appear to have been in a stall - the speculation is that, similar to what appears to have happened in the Lion Air crash 5 months ago, the device that is meant to prevent a stall (MCAS) activated when it shouldn't have.

Hence my question. My understanding is that there have been many situations where the plane/pilot believed the aircraft was about to go into a stall (I'm not talking about a situation where a plane is in stall) but conflicting information made that decision open to question. So, (for example) where an automated system was adding nose down/up trim to an aircraft believing that the AOA was incorrect, is there a non-automated setting the pilot can put the aircraft into, that gives them time to think?

CelticRambler · 12-03-2019 1:22pm

IITYWYBMAD wrote: »

Now, translate that to an aircraft. Should the instruments be telling me that the aircraft is about to stall, are there not some 'default' settings I can put the plane into that ensure that the aircraft will not stall, while I figure out what is going on?

As raging_ninja says, an aerodynamic stall happens when there is not enough air passing fast enough over the wing to generate lift. Without lift, the aircraft falls out of the sky. The "default" setting is for the aircraft to fall out of the sky! The default correction is for the pilot to (try to) put the aircraft into a (steep) dive so that it falls nose-first, thus creating airflow over the wings, generating lift and getting things back to normal.

The problems arise when either
(a) the pilot can't tell whether they're "nose up" or "nose down" because the instruments are giving misleading information - or the instruments are giving accurate information that doesn't match information coming from other sources [remember that at altitude and in bad weather/nighttime pilots have few or no points of reference]; and
(b) the aircraft is so close to the ground that there simply isn't room to dive several thousand feet to get the necessary airflow over the wings.

errlloyd · 12-03-2019 1:32pm

My OH is flying NYC to Dublin tonight on a 737 Max. I think she's vaguely aware there is some controversy surrounding the plane. My gut feeling is threefold.

You can't read much into cancellations, they have as much to do with politics and marketing ("as safety above all costs")
If the Pilots were worried they would refuse to fly
Right now the pilots are probably as aware and as prepared for an issue as ever.

But I do worry about Norwegian. As an Airline they are struggling financially and probably can't afford to ground the planes. Anything you flight experts would casually say to someone flying on one tonight?

Doylers · 12-03-2019 1:55pm

errlloyd wrote: »

My OH is flying NYC to Dublin tonight on a 737 Max. I think she's vaguely aware there is some controversy surrounding the plane. My gut feeling is threefold.
You can't read much into cancellations, they have as much to do with politics and marketing ("as safety above all costs")

If the Pilots were worried they would refuse to fly

Right now the pilots are probably as aware and as prepared for an issue as ever.

But I do worry about Norwegian. As an Airline they are struggling financially and probably can't afford to ground the planes. Anything you flight experts would casually say to someone flying on one tonight?

I'm of the same feeling too, booked to fly their max the start if April on a new route. Cant imagine they are in a position to throw money at training and would rather be on a 330.

Duff · 12-03-2019 1:59pm

Flying Ryanair to Budapest in two weeks and my o/h is now paranoid beyond belief. Am I correct in thinking they haven't taken delivery of their MAX8 yet?

Sunrise_Sunset · 12-03-2019 2:05pm

I'm a nervous flyer as it is. This is not great for my flight anxiety at all. I'm booked with Ryanair Dublin to Amsterdam in a few weeks.

Doctor Jimbob · 12-03-2019 2:05pm

errlloyd wrote: »

My OH is flying NYC to Dublin tonight on a 737 Max. I think she's vaguely aware there is some controversy surrounding the plane. My gut feeling is threefold.
You can't read much into cancellations, they have as much to do with politics and marketing ("as safety above all costs")

If the Pilots were worried they would refuse to fly

Right now the pilots are probably as aware and as prepared for an issue as ever.

But I do worry about Norwegian. As an Airline they are struggling financially and probably can't afford to ground the planes. Anything you flight experts would casually say to someone flying on one tonight?

I'm not a flight expert, but it's worth remembering that there have been countless journeys completed on 737 MAX without incident. I personally flew on one twice last summer with Norwegian. The chances of anything happening are still incredibly small.

Nijmegen · 12-03-2019 2:08pm

Ryanair are not yet flying the MAX. As for Norwegian, look, the chances of an accident are still very small. I'd personally not book onto one now until we know more but I still think that the chances of a further accident even if these two had the same cause, is minimal; if it was the same cause, pilots will be more aware of what to do about it; and there's a chance it's just bad luck.

mac_daddy · 12-03-2019 2:08pm

Doylers wrote: »

I'm of the same feeling too, booked to fly their max the start if April on a new route. Cant imagine they are in a position to throw money at training and would rather be on a 330.

My wife and I are due to fly to Providence this Friday with Norwegian. Currently in the process of booking new flights (at our own expense

). Not worth the risk with having two young kids left at home when you consider 2 out 350 operating planes have crashed. I suspect that Norwegian have not grounded their fleet as they know they would go to the wall if they did.

munchkin_utd · 12-03-2019 2:13pm

Duff wrote: »

Flying Ryanair to Budapest in two weeks and my o/h is now paranoid beyond belief. Am I correct in thinking they haven't taken delivery of their MAX8 yet?

indeed, they get one plane in April and then a couple more in May.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0312/1035824-ryanair-boeing-737-max/

CelticRambler · 12-03-2019 2:13pm

mac_daddy wrote: »

My wife and I are due to fly to Providence this Friday with Norwegian. Currently in the process of booking new flights (at our own expense ). Not worth the risk with having two young kids left at home when you consider 2 out 350 operating planes have crashed. I suspect that Norwegian have not grounded their fleet as they know they would go to the wall if they did.

Daft attitude, IMO. The reported fault on the Lion Air aircraft is one that the pilots can work with. No-one knows why the Ethiopian aircraft crashed. None of the Norwegian aircraft have had any significant incidents. The risk of your children being orphaned by a dodgy 737-MAX is still tiny compared to the likelihood you'll be killed by an uninsured driver on the M50 on the way to the airport.

FWIW, my sister and a bunch of friends are all booked on that Ethiopian flight/route later this year. None of them are changing their reservations.

AlekSmart · 12-03-2019 2:17pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Daft attitude, IMO. The reported fault on the Lion Air aircraft is one that the pilots can work with. No-one knows why the Ethiopian aircraft crashed. None of the Norwegian aircraft have had any significant incidents. The risk of your children being orphaned by a dodgy 737-MAX is still tiny compared to the likelihood you'll be killed by an uninsured driver on the M50 on the way to the airport.

FWIW, my sister and a bunch of friends are all booked on that Ethiopian flight/route later this year. None of them are changing their reservations.

Indeed,and by the posters own figures,there are 348 out of 350 still capable of flight ?

mac_daddy · 12-03-2019 2:18pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Daft attitude, IMO. The reported fault on the Lion Air aircraft is one that the pilots can work with. No-one knows why the Ethiopian aircraft crashed. None of the Norwegian aircraft have had any significant incidents. The risk of your children being orphaned by a dodgy 737-MAX is still tiny compared to the likelihood you'll be killed by an uninsured driver on the M50 on the way to the airport.

Why do folks always throw up the comparison of being killed by uninsured driver? The stats here are different than the generic airline fatality measurements. Not sure if you have kids or not but that's when you re-evaluate risk a little differently.

jasper100 · 12-03-2019 2:19pm

mac_daddy wrote: »

My wife and I are due to fly to Providence this Friday with Norwegian. Currently in the process of booking new flights (at our own expense ). Not worth the risk with having two young kids left at home when you consider 2 out 350 operating planes have crashed. I suspect that Norwegian have not grounded their fleet as they know they would go to the wall if they did.

That's ott. Lets assume each plane has now made, on average, 1000 movements, then your chances are 2 in 350x1000 = 1 in 175000 on it happening to you.

CelticRambler · 12-03-2019 2:27pm

mac_daddy wrote: »

Why do folks always throw up the comparison of being killed by uninsured driver? The stats here are different than the generic airline fatality measurements. Not sure if you have kids or not but that's when you re-evaluate risk a little differently.

The risk of dying on a Norwegian 737 today are exactly the same as they were last week.

Yes, I do have children (four of them) and if any of them were available to take your Providence tickets off your hands, I'd tell them to grab the chance of a bargain. They might get killed by a drunk driver in Dublin or be shot by the police in America, but they will not die in a plane crash over the Atlantic.

NH2013 · 12-03-2019 2:27pm

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/boeing-737-ban-uk-airspace-caa-ethiopia-crash-a8819301.html?amp

Looks like the UK have just grounded the MAX, none allowed through UK airspace, also grounded by Australia earlier on today.

That’ll be quite the hit for Norwegian and TUI.

L1011 · 12-03-2019 2:31pm

FAA actually moving to reassure rather than a wait and see approach is starting to look very off now.

Doylers · 12-03-2019 2:33pm

UK suspends the max

https://news.sky.com/story/boeing-to-issue-software-update-to-make-737-max-safer-11662753

Doylers · 12-03-2019 2:34pm

NH2013 wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/boeing-737-ban-uk-airspace-caa-ethiopia-crash-a8819301.html?amp

Looks like the UK have just grounded the MAX, none allowed through UK airspace, also grounded by Australia earlier on today.

That’ll be quite the hit for Norwegian and TUI.

Dammit you beat me :pac:

Storm 10 · 12-03-2019 2:35pm

Doylers wrote: »

Dammit you beat me :pac:

That is a very serious move that will see the IAA follow up with the same ban

cnocbui · 12-03-2019 2:36pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

As raging_ninja says, an aerodynamic stall happens when there is not enough air passing fast enough over the wing to generate lift. Without lift, the aircraft falls out of the sky. The "default" setting is for the aircraft to fall out of the sky! The default correction is for the pilot to (try to) put the aircraft into a (steep) dive so that it falls nose-first, thus creating airflow over the wings, generating lift and getting things back to normal.

The problems arise when either
(a) the pilot can't tell whether they're "nose up" or "nose down" because the instruments are giving misleading information - or the instruments are giving accurate information that doesn't match information coming from other sources [remember that at altitude and in bad weather/nighttime pilots have few or no points of reference]; and
(b) the aircraft is so close to the ground that there simply isn't room to dive several thousand feet to get the necessary airflow over the wings.

I have stalled an aircraft many times - saying they fall out of the sky is melodramatic hyperbole. In a stall, the wings lose lift and so long as the plane isn't in a turn, the plane noses over sharply and enters a dive, which causes the airspeed to increase very rapidly - re-establishing lift over the wings and returning full control to the pilot allowing them to pull the nose up and to continue flying.

Doylers · 12-03-2019 2:39pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

That is a very serious move that will see the IAA follow up with the same ban

Would such a ban affect people with bookings? Will the be entitled to 261 compensation I wonder?

murphaph · 12-03-2019 2:39pm

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm not a flight expert, but it's worth remembering that there have been countless journeys completed on 737 MAX without incident. I personally flew on one twice last summer with Norwegian. The chances of anything happening are still incredibly small.

Hmmm, they have lost 2 of 350 delivered since 2017 (0.6% of fleet lost with all souls aboard). That's not a good statistic at all. You'd buy hundreds of lotto tickets if you had those sorts of odds of winning. I would not put my family on one right now and I would not advise anyone else to either. Maybe the 2 crashes so far are unrelated but if they definitely were then you can be sure Boeing would be publicising the fact.

Casati · 12-03-2019 2:40pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

The risk of dying on a Norwegian 737 today are exactly the same as they were last week.

Yes, I do have children (four of them) and if any of them were available to take your Providence tickets off your hands, I'd tell them to grab the chance of a bargain. They might get killed by a drunk driver in Dublin or be shot by the police in America, but they will not die in a plane crash over the Atlantic.

If Norwegian are the only airline left flying the Max, would that change your mind?

It’s a big cost to pay for new flights but it would seems that with half the Max fleet grounded or banned from flying that its not OTT to not want to fly on one

theguzman · 12-03-2019 2:42pm

The UK and Oman have joined the growing list of countries to ground the Boeing 737 Max. Ireland will surely follow soon, goodbye Norwegian after that.

EDIT; changed the word to be more precise

troyzer · 12-03-2019 2:45pm

Just on a related note with Norweigan and the Max.

Do we know why that plane was originally forced to land in Iran?

faoiarvok · 12-03-2019 2:46pm

theguzman wrote: »

The UK and Oman have joined the growing list of countries to ban the Boeing 737 Max. Ireland will surely follow soon, goodbye Norwegian after that.

My guess would be IAA will wait for EASA rather than make the call themselves.

Nijmegen · 12-03-2019 2:47pm

I would say the IAA will make your choice for you re flying on a MAX soon. Either you'll get something else leased in or you won't be flying with them at all. Norwegian better have good insurance against this sort of thing or they're in trouble.

murphaph · 12-03-2019 2:49pm

Casati wrote: »

If Norwegian are the only airline left flying the Max, would that change your mind?

It’s a big cost to pay for new flights but it would seems that with half the Max fleet grounded or banned from flying that its not OTT to not want to fly on one

Apparently pilots for Aerolineas Argentinas have refused to fly them and as such the company has grounded their fleet too.

Nijmegen · 12-03-2019 2:50pm

Seems Norwegian have bit the bullet. In Swedish but Google translate:

Following the flight in Ethiopia, Norwegian puts all its Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft on the ground temporarily.

theguzman · 12-03-2019 2:50pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

I would say the IAA will make your choice for you re flying on a MAX soon. Either you'll get something else leased in or you won't be flying with them at all. Norwegian better have good insurance against this sort of thing or they're in trouble.

Shouldn't Boeing ultimately be responsible for all this?

gordongekko · 12-03-2019 2:52pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

but they will not die in a plane crash over the Atlantic.

Both planes crashed shortly after takeoff so it's more likely to be over land

Royale with Cheese · 12-03-2019 2:54pm

I flew on one with TUI through UK airspace last month, I wonder will this screw a few holidays up.

Nijmegen · 12-03-2019 2:54pm

theguzman wrote: »

Shouldn't Boeing ultimately be responsible for all this?

I imagine there's arcane and complex contractual relationships that will kick in here alright, but you can't just magic 350 (sorry, 348) aircraft out of thin air either.

GM228 · 12-03-2019 2:56pm

murphaph wrote: »

Hmmm, they have lost 2 of 350 delivered since 2017 (0.6% of fleet lost with all souls aboard). That's not a good statistic at all. You'd buy hundreds of lotto tickets if you had those sorts of odds of winning. I would not put my family on one right now and I would not advise anyone else to either. Maybe the 2 crashes so far are unrelated but if they definitely were then you can be sure Boeing would be publicising the fact.

The problem is that due to the way the statistics are computed the 737MAX has probably become the second deadliest fatal flight statistic after the Concorde which as we know only had the one fatal flight.

theguzman · 12-03-2019 2:57pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

I imagine there's arcane and complex contractual relationships that will kick in here alright, but you can't just magic 350 (sorry, 348) aircraft out of thin air either.

You'd be surprised at the amount of perfectly serviceable albeit fuel thirsty airliners sitting in Deserts in America which could be put into service again if needed.

GM228 · 12-03-2019 2:58pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

Seems Norwegian have bit the bullet. In Swedish but Google translate:

Following the flight in Ethiopia, Norwegian puts all its Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft on the ground temporarily.

Sky News just stated Norweigan fleet grounded.

CelticRambler · 12-03-2019 3:00pm

Casati wrote: »

If Norwegian are the only airline left flying the Max, would that change your mind?

At the current time, no. If I was buying a plane tomorrow, I wouldn't choose one of these when there are other options available.

There's absolutely no indication that anyone knows what caused the Ethiopian crash, so it's pointless basing any decision to travel on that. If it turns out to be the same problem that caused the Lion Air crash, well, that's a known issue and there's a way to deal with it (as the crew flying the Lion Air aircraft did on the previous trip).

I would hope that Norwegian's pilots have all heard about the "Lion Air" problem with the 737 MAX's design and have at least read up on the steps to take to disable the problematic components, maybe even done a few hours in the simulator to practice their reflexes - but there are already more than enough things that can go wrong during a flight without adding speculative risks into the mix.

cnocbui · 12-03-2019 3:03pm

Other countries have grounded it because they probably have been advised by back channels of the flight data recorder findings. You wouldn't believe how quickly they actually get the contents off those after recovering them.

GM228 · 12-03-2019 3:03pm

Confirmed by Norwegian:-

https://twitter.com/Fly_Norwegian/status/1105467984590573573?s=19

LeakRate · 12-03-2019 3:04pm

Norwegian Providence and Newburgh canx from DUB today

kippy · 12-03-2019 3:05pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Other countries have grounded it because they probably have been advised by back channels of the flight data recorder findings. You wouldn't believe how quickly they actually get the contents off those after recovering them.

Agree with this observation.....

PCros · 12-03-2019 3:07pm

As Ryanair were only planning on flying the Max's out of Stansted do you think they will swap them up and fly them out of another city that hasn't banned them by then? Or are we looking at a worldwide ban by April anyway?

Can't see MOL letting aircraft sit parked up.

troyzer · 12-03-2019 3:07pm

PCros wrote: »

As Ryanair were only planning on flying the Max's out of Stansted do you think they will swap them up and fly them out of another city that hasn't banned them by then? Or are we looking at a worldwide ban by April anyway?

Can't see MOL letting aircraft sit parked up.

Looks like there will be a worldwide ban in the next few days. It might be sorted by the time Ryanair gets them.

GM228 · 12-03-2019 3:09pm

The big question is with so many groundings how are the airlines in terms of a stand in/hire in, no doubt some can manage, but other airlines will be in chaos.

murphaph · 12-03-2019 3:14pm

GM228 wrote: »

The problem is that due to the way the statistics are computed the 737MAX has probably become the second deadliest fatal flight statistic after the Concorde which as we know only had the one fatal flight.

We also know what caused that crash and in fact steps were taken to remedy the weakness. We don't actually know if the 737 MAX has an inherent flaw. If and when the issue is resolved or at least satisfactorily explained, I will not be flying on them.

Concorde was also grounded of course while the issues were resolved.

faoiarvok · 12-03-2019 3:20pm

GM228 wrote: »

Confirmed by Norwegian:-

https://twitter.com/Fly_Norwegian/status/1105467984590573573?s=19

“Following recommendations by European aviation authorities”?

Have EASA issued something?

troyzer · 12-03-2019 3:20pm

What, if anything, does this mean for the Neo?

plodder · 12-03-2019 3:23pm

The other thing to consider is that the Lion Air plane was known to be "unairworthy" before the fatal accident. One would like to think that reputable airlines don't allow their craft to fly in that situation.

Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

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