Nissan Leaf 60kWh

Mike9832 · 30-11-2018 4:09am

Old diesel wrote: »

Give it a month or two and the Ghost saga dies down.

Might be a lower key launch so the first you hear of it might be when the media are doing the first drive in Spain/Germany or wherever on the international launch.

Sales in the US are awful, but worse for the Leaf is sales in Japan are also very weak, only Europe is going ok

Leaf is averaging 1400 sales a month in the US , Tesla model 3 did 22,200 in September, this is not counting the close to zero sales that took place waiting on the Leaf 40

When Tesla get Model 3 into Europe expect the same 1:20 battering

Nissan supposedly have only got enough batteries from LG to make 2000 Leaf 60 a month for the first year

VW, Jag, Audi, Hyundai etc have supply taken up until 2021 when new plants are up

Add to that the Japanese partners agitating to break the alliance up and have independent management it doesnt look good for the Leaf 60

Japanese board played a big part in Nissan selling off in house battery plant AESC

samih · 30-11-2018 11:51am

If the 2000 battteries a month is true I'm expecting a huge price difference between the L40 and L60 so. And the large battery only for the SVE. 38-39k after grants anybody?

unkel · 30-11-2018 11:58am

Something like that. Provided of course it has CCS charging far quicker than CHAdeMO and also that the #rapidgate is fixed. If Hyundai / Kia can get away with charging late 30s (after a 10k subsidy) for a 400-500km EV, I can's see why Nissan couldn't do the same.

Except that Nissan could charge that now if it had the car, but not for the 201 plates, which is likely to be close to the time that the Model 3 comes out here too which should shake things up nicely

My hope / expectation for 2020: base EVs for around €20-€25k, incl Zoe, Leaf, Ioniq, Neo, etc. Longer range EVs for around €30k and premium EVs like Model 3 for around €40k...

Mike9832 · 30-11-2018 12:38pm

unkel wrote: »

Something like that. Provided of course it has CCS charging far quicker than CHAdeMO and also that the #rapidgate is fixed. If Hyundai / Kia can get away with charging late 30s (after a 10k subsidy) for a 400-500km EV, I can's see why Nissan couldn't do the same.

Except that Nissan could charge that now if it had the car, but not for the 201 plates, which is likely to be close to the time that the Model 3 comes out here too which should shake things up nicely

My hope / expectation for 2020: base EVs for around €20-€25k, incl Zoe, Leaf, Ioniq, Neo, etc. Longer range EVs for around €30k and premium EVs like Model 3 for around €40k...

Yes Model 3 volume production is the game changer

Autogiants won't be able to flog overpriced Leafs, Konas, é-Golfs, i3's anymore when the much superior Tesla Model 3 is available for €40k

All the autogiants EVs are being outsold by a ratio of 20:1 in the US right now

It will be the same in Europe

Scandinavians will lap them up

Who can blame them

500km range , 125kWh charging, 300bhp, almost supercar acceleration for BMW i3 money

Alternatives from the autogiants at the moment is laughable

Ioniq at 26k is the only EV that is decent imo

KCross · 30-11-2018 12:42pm

unkel wrote: »

My hope / expectation for 2020: base EVs for around €20-€25k, incl Zoe, Leaf, Ioniq, Neo, etc. Longer range EVs for around €30k and premium EVs like Model 3 for around €40k...

In that case everyone who buys a €38k Niro or Kona next year is going to suffer massive depreciation in less than 2yrs of ownership.

Are you expecting that to happen?
If yes, there will be alot of disgruntled Hyundai/Kia owners in 2020!

Those people better have good PCP deals with high GMFV's

ELM327 · 30-11-2018 12:44pm

KCross wrote: »

In that case everyone who buys a €38k Niro or Kona next year is going to suffer massive depreciation in less than 2yrs of ownership.

Are you expecting that to happen?
If yes, there will be alot of disgruntled Hyundai/Kia owners in 2020!

Those people better have good PCP deals with high GFMV's

Yes

38-40k for a Kia/Hyundai is mad money.
Model 3 will be low 40's here.

I expect Gen1 Leaf depreciation for those people silly enough to spend ~40k on a Kia/Hyundai

KCross · 30-11-2018 12:54pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Yes

38-40k for a Kia/Hyundai is mad money.
Model 3 will be low 40's here.

I expect Gen1 Leaf depreciation for those people silly enough to spend ~40k on a Kia/Hyundai

I agree, its mad money.

What surprises me though is that Hyundai priced it so high when most on here think cheap EV's are only 18mths away. Hyundai are not stupid by any stretch of the imagination and I just dont think that they will magically knock €5k-€10k off their prices in a year or two's time.

They must know the market and must know what cars are coming on stream to compete with them. Shafting (big time) the first wave of owners would not be in their interest at all.

I'd love to believe all these cheap EV's are just around the corner but it just seems too good to be true.

The price of the Model 3 will be the benchmark but even Tesla is saying it cant deliver on its $35k car yet so I dont think that €40k Model 3 will appear here in 2020... just my guess. I think Musk said he needed 10k cars a week before he could deliver on the $35k Model 3.

unkel · 30-11-2018 1:18pm

KCross wrote: »

In that case everyone who buys a €38k Niro or Kona next year is going to suffer massive depreciation in less than 2yrs of ownership.

Are you expecting that to happen?
If yes, there will be alot of disgruntled Hyundai/Kia owners in 2020!

First of all, anyone spending the guts of €40k on a Hyundai/Kia long range EV probably did so because they do massive mileage. Their fuel savings are enormous. Total cost of ownership over 3 years is probably lower than if they had bought the equivalent spec / model diesel car for €10k less. Even if the arrival of a €30k 2020 long range Korean means their depreciation takes a massive jump

And it remains to be seen how big the increase of supply of EVs will be from 2020. Apart from Tesla, I haven't really seen any concrete current improvements that hint at such supply (promises like from VAG don't count)

ELM327 · 30-11-2018 1:19pm

KCross wrote: »

I agree, its mad money.

What surprises me though is that Hyundai priced it so high when most on here think cheap EV's are only 18mths away. Hyundai are not stupid by any stretch of the imagination and I just dont think that they will magically knock €5k-€10k off their prices in a year or two's time.

They must know the market and must know what cars are coming on stream to compete with them. Shafting (big time) the first wave of owners would not be in their interest at all.

I'd love to believe all these cheap EV's are just around the corner but it just seems too good to be true.

The price of the Model 3 will be the benchmark but even Tesla is saying it cant deliver on its $35k car yet so I dont think that €40k Model 3 will appear here in 2020... just my guess. I think Musk said he needed 10k cars a week before he could deliver on the $35k Model 3.

Like anyone buying a 2012/2013 leaf you mean?
It happens, particularly with new tech,

Most will ahve been bought on pcp with the worst case scenario being no deposit for the next PCP

KCross · 30-11-2018 1:36pm

unkel wrote: »

First of all, anyone spending the guts of €40k on a Hyundai/Kia long range EV probably did so because they do massive mileage. Their fuel savings are enormous. Total cost of ownership over 3 years is probably lower than if they had bought the equivalent spec / model diesel car for €10k less. Even if the arrival of a €30k 2020 long range Korean means their depreciation takes a massive jump

I'm not sure about that. I think people will buy it because they like the car and they like its a CUV. People rarely buy based on TCO considerations.... they might think again if your 2020 hopes comes true and they see those levels of depreciation.

Your example of high mileage users will have reduced pain for them due to their high fuel bills but there still would be no getting away from the extra depreciation. It would wipe out a very large chunk (if not all) of those savings relative to the equivalent ICE Kona. I would be well pissed about that if it were me.

unkel wrote: »

And it remains to be seen how big the increase of supply of EVs will be from 2020. Apart from Tesla, I haven't really seen any concrete current improvements that hint at such supply (promises like from VAG don't count)

Thats the issue really, isnt it. Tesla and VW are the only ones with talk of big numbers. Tesla wont be cheap and we all have to wait for confirmation of VW's specs, price etc.

Practically all the other annoucements for new EV's are in the luxury high end segment (Merc EQC, Audi eTron, Jaguar iPace etc). All €80k+ cars so they will have very little effect on the market here.

ELM327 wrote: »

Like anyone buying a 2012/2013 leaf you mean?
It happens, particularly with new tech,

Most will ahve been bought on pcp with the worst case scenario being no deposit for the next PCP

We are close to a decade on from the 2011 Leaf which was true early adopter stuff so I can understand it there and the batteries werent as good and that got reflected in resale price. Massive depreciation has not happened from 2013+ (apart from i3 maybe?).

I dont think someone paying €38k for a car in 2019 is going to be happy or expect those levels of depreciation. If that happens it just sets EV adoption back as we often hear of the massive depreciation that EV's have as a blocker to buying one. If it happens again it will just make that excuse true and further slow adoption... not good at all.

If this massive depreciation is going to happen you can be sure the manufacturers will have the GMFV adjusted in their favour.

Anyone know what the PCP deals on a Kona EV are like?

unkel · 30-11-2018 3:04pm

KCross wrote: »

I'm not sure about that. I think people will buy it because they like the car and they like its a CUV. People rarely buy based on TCO considerations...

I guess there are a lot of people out there a bit less rational than yourself or myself when it comes to big purchases

Old diesel · 30-11-2018 3:17pm

Where is the basis for thinking an Irish model 3 could be 40 k.

A Tesla will be sold as a "desirable" product.

50 to 60 k I reckon for a Model 3 depending on spec and how cheeky Tesla are on price.

ELM327 · 30-11-2018 3:27pm

Old diesel wrote: »

Where is the basis for thinking an Irish model 3 could be 40 k.

A Tesla will be sold as a "desirable" product.

50 to 60 k I reckon for a Model 3 depending on spec and how cheeky Tesla are on price.

Been done to death on the model 3 thread
converting US price to Irish prices, using same coefficient as the X, S had.

Won't be 60k for the normal model for sure, I'd guess low 40s

Mike9832 · 30-11-2018 3:35pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Been done to death on the model 3 thread
converting US price to Irish prices, using same coefficient as the X, S had.

Won't be 60k for the normal model for sure, I'd guess low 40s

I would go with low 40s too

Some car for that

Performance alone is unmatched

Can't understand how so little hype here for the Model 3

Its such a huge step up to what is out there now

I have a deposit in for ages now and will definitely be getting if priced in low 40s, which I believe they will

unkel · 30-11-2018 9:30pm

Mike9832 wrote: »

Can't understand how so little hype here for the Model 3

Lots of factors. Where to start? A few that spring to mind straight away:

-It ain't real. You can't buy it. There's none in the dealers (or should I say the one Tesla dealer this country has), so you can't even test drive it

-40k is junior executive car money. I doubt anyone reckons the Tesla is made to the same standard as the junior offerings from Audi, BMW, Lexus and Mercedes

-Irish public still behind most other EU countries when it comes to acceptance of EVs

-unfamiliar make - many people buy the same make all their lives, or switch just once or twice when they are really convinced a new make offers a lot extra

-it's a saloon. Most people in Ireland prefer other form factors, like hatchback, estate, cross over, MPV, SUV, etc.

-it's nowhere near a 40k car yet. Not even in the USA. And once the base model comes out over here (that will take the guts of another 2 years - a very long time) and you tick autopilot and one or two other things, it's suddenly almost a 60k car

unkel · 30-11-2018 9:31pm

There was hype for me personally. I had my deposit down. And I was almost certainly going to buy it when it became available (in base form). But then we got a dog and a saloon is not suitable for 5 people and a large dog. So that was the end of the road for me.

Gumbo · 30-11-2018 11:58pm

unkel wrote: »

There was hype for me personally. I had my deposit down. And I was almost certainly going to buy it when it became available (in base form). But then we got a dog and a saloon is not suitable for 5 people and a large dog. So that was the end of the road for me.

Could you not just ship away the family, and you and the dog enjoy the car and road trips

unkel · 01-12-2018 12:20am

kceire wrote: »

Could you not just ship away the family, and you and the dog enjoy the car and road trips

I have the Porsche for that. Strictly a 2 seater (me + dog)

Water John · 01-12-2018 12:44am

Be careful your OH may read this Thread, won't like to be called a dog.

Mike9832 · 04-12-2018 12:14am

Mike9832 wrote: »

Who knows

Nissan are in disarray now

Huge power struggle behind the scenes, Japs are not exactly fans of EVs either, if they get more control who knows what direction they will go

Nissan have made a right mess of things, from a pioneer/leader in electric vehicles with the before it's time Leaf in 2010

10 years later in 2020 they have an LG 60kWh Leaf

4 years after GM released the LG 60kWh Chevy Bolt

What a disaster

Leaf has been delayed

Disaster

https://insideevs.com/nissan-postpones-launch-60-kwh-leaf-e-plus/

Miscreant · 04-12-2018 12:45am

Mike9832 wrote: »

Mike9832 wrote: »

Who knows

Nissan are in disarray now

Huge power struggle behind the scenes, Japs are not exactly fans of EVs either, if they get more control who knows what direction they will go

Nissan have made a right mess of things, from a pioneer/leader in electric vehicles with the before it's time Leaf in 2010

10 years later in 2020 they have an LG 60kWh Leaf

4 years after GM released the LG 60kWh Chevy Bolt

What a disaster

Leaf has been delayed

Disaster

https://insideevs.com/nissan-postpones-launch-60-kwh-leaf-e-plus/

That link is literally the reason for this thread and is in post 1. The Leaf 60 reveal has been delayed is my understanding of reading the piece and not necessarily the whole car itself. It may still go on sale to whatever Nissan's original schedule was but no one is sure at the moment (other than Nissan of course, but they're being tight lipped about it). Once they believe the whole Ghosn thing has died down then they'll be back on track.

Mike9832 · 04-12-2018 12:47am

Miscreant wrote: »

That link is literally the reason for this thread and is in post 1. The Leaf 60 reveal has been delayed is my understanding of reading the piece and not necessarily the whole car itself. It may still go on sale to whatever Nissan's original schedule was but no one is sure at the moment (other than Nissan of course, but they're being tight lipped about it). Once they believe the whole Ghosn thing has died down then they'll be back on track.

Update

unkel · 04-12-2018 1:55am

Mike9832 wrote: »

Update

Nothing new in there. The L60 was never going to be launched in November 2018. It was always realistically a 2020 car.

Lame to blame it on the issues surrounding Ghosn imho...

samih · 04-12-2018 10:45am

Maybe they have decided to cancel it due to LG production shortages. I know I wouldn't spend extra (insert a figure approx. 5k here) over the L40 to have more range, even with the promised faster charging. The L40 is good enough for us: Over the past 7k/4 months we have used public charging twice. It's the same thing as with the Kona/Niro. The approx. 40 kWh at approx. 30k would actually be the sweet spot regarding price/performance. Spending anything more than that doesn't make sense financially.

Nissan should really focus in improving the efficiency of the drive train instead.

ELM327 · 04-12-2018 10:54am

samih wrote: »

Maybe they have decided to cancel it due to LG production shortages. I know I wouldn't spend extra (insert a figure approx. 5k here) over the L40 to have more range, even with the promised faster charging. The L40 is good enough for us: Over the past 7k/4 months we have used public charging twice. It's the same thing as with the Kona/Niro. The approx. 40 kWh at approx. 30k would actually be the sweet spot regarding price/performance. Spending anything more than that doesn't make sense financially.

Nissan should really focus in improving the efficiency of the drive train instead.

Focus on drivetrain efficiency (despite being the first mainstream player, they are now behind the curve on this factor) and add active thermal management, a must these days.

If they rework the leaf 40 with a drivetrain improvement of 1.2 factor, added active thermal management (even air cooled like Ioniq) - don't half ass it like they did for the env200 40kWh, they would have a much more marketable EV.

It could be this is what they are working on for the upgraded Leaf60, because - while they are the major player volume wise outside of the US - this will not last when others have bigger batteries, faster charging, more efficient drivetrains, CCS compatibility and for similar price.

KCross · 04-12-2018 10:56am

samih wrote: »

Nissan should really focus in improving the efficiency of the drive train instead.

100%

And its not an aerodynamic issue. Its something in their drivetrain.... the motor windings, the reduction gear, the battery etc etc.... they need to fix that.

Throwing more battery capacity at it isnt the solution if the efficiency is still poor.

I think they have a motor which is designed for slow Japanese driving. They should design one for faster european motorways.

A 31kWh Ioniq getting the same range as a 40kWh Leaf is ridiculous.

Zenith74 · 04-12-2018 10:57am

Mike9832 wrote: »

Leaf has been delayed
Disaster

There's really no indication that the arrival of the car to showrooms has been delayed. The quote from Nissan in the article is “to ensure that this important product unveiling could receive the coverage it merits” which as others have said directly states that the launch event itself has been delayed, while making no mention of the car itself.

I don't think anybody knows for sure if the showroom arrival date has been delayed or not, but nothing in the wording from Nissan suggests it has, in-fact they seem to have gone out of their way to keep saying delayed "launch", "event", "product unveiling" and not delayed car.

samih · 04-12-2018 11:08am

With the L40 Nissan are reaping the benefit of the foresight of their own battery cell manufacturing and just keep using slightly improved drive train from 2010 as it's just about good enough, but is wasting energy and not reaping the benefit of the slightly larger than average battery pack. The motor for example is the exact same unit that has been in the facelifted L24 since 2013.

Agreed ELM. I hope they'll just add fan cooling to L40 battery packs and will then launch a brand new car with CCS with the LG 64 kWh pack when the batteries are actually available in volume sometime in the future. The L40 upgrade could alternatively be canceled if they launched the new car with the existing 40 kWh pack if that's the only way to ensure supply. If they got the efficiency in line with Hyundai even that car would have a range of approx. 300 km and 400-500 km with the 64 pack.

samih · 04-12-2018 11:13am

KCross wrote: »

100%

And its not an aerodynamic issue. Its something in their drivetrain.... the motor windings, the reduction gear, the battery etc etc.... they need to fix that.

Throwing more battery capacity at it isnt the solution if the efficiency is still poor.

I think they have a motor which is designed for slow Japanese driving. They should design one for faster european motorways.

A 31kWh Ioniq getting the same range as a 40kWh Leaf is ridiculous.

It's not just the aero, agreed, altough that ruins the efficiency of L40 at motorway. The difference in efficiency is even more marked at low speeds. You can't really hypermile the L40 the same way IONIQ can do 400 km when driven really slowly. The baseline energy efficiency of L40 is just poor. The range at LEAFspeed(tm) in summer is just about acceptable compared to IONIQ but still poor. For some reason the L40 and Tesla Model S consume approx. same amount which is almost unbelivable really.

ELM327 · 04-12-2018 11:14am

To be honest I think there should be more crossover and cost sharing between Renault and Nissan. The next Zoe is rumored (confirmed at this point?) to be CCS, 60kWh, with 22kW AC and 100kW DC CCS support.

All of that would sit perfectly in the next leaf. It's essentially the same company so I don't see why there isn't more partnering to share costs of improvement and operational efficiencies.

Nissan Leaf 60kWh

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