Weds 30th early hours + morning: Munster/south Leinster snow and ice

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2020 6:11pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Ok thank you. It looks like the conditions are ok tomorrow during the day based on the sounding.

Temps are on their way down now already so I guess it’s a case of wait and see.

Not great for low levels, going on those soundings. Relying on heavy showers to see something, and then there will be the sloppy mess to deal with after them.

For the southern event the 12Z ICON has even less in the way of snow. The arse is falling out of this. Only the Swiss MRF has anything of decency, but it's an outlier.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 6:14pm

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Re timing - am I right in saying this snow event will be tomorrow morning (6am to 12 noon)?

Location? In the west should be just after midnight precip arrives in to Galway, Mayo, Clare. Looks like this now will be passing through swiftly enough. It should be cleared by mid morning except the southeast.

munsterlegend · 29-12-2020 6:14pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Not great for low levels, going on those soundings. Relying on heavy showers to see something, and then there will be the sloppy mess to deal with after them.

For the southern event the 12Z ICON has even less in the way of snow. The arse is falling out of this. Only the Swiss MRF has anything of decency, but it's an

What do you think of the bigger picture down the line GL or is it too early yet to say?

Cluedo Monopoly · 29-12-2020 6:23pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Location? In the west should be just after midnight precip arrives in to Galway, Mayo, Clare. Looks like this now will be passing through swiftly enough. It should be cleared by mid morning except the southeast.

Sorry yes, Galway.
Perfect thanks.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 6:55pm

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Sorry yes, Galway.
Perfect thanks.

More than likely not snow on arrival. It will have to move inland before it starts transitioning. Also may be light enough and patchy in nature. We've seen downgrades in expected precipitation.

Just have to see the real time observations with this one now.

It looks very knife edge to me but fingers crossed!

Cluedo Monopoly · 29-12-2020 6:59pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

More than likely not snow on arrival. It will have to move inland before it starts transitioning. Also may be light enough and patchy in nature. We've seen downgrades in expected precipitation.

Just have to see the real time observations with this one now.

It looks very knife edge to me but fingers crossed!

m17 · 29-12-2020 7:00pm

Knockmealdown mountains 27/12/20

downwiththatsor · 29-12-2020 7:05pm

Latest Euro4 which usually over eggs snow accumulation predictions not showing much down south.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 7:06pm

Just looking at the latest ECM now and if anything this is pulled back more in to Munster now on that model which is a bit disappointing.

Still, like I say, all about the observations now...

munsterlegend · 29-12-2020 7:09pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Just looking at the latest ECM now and if anything this is pulled back more in to Munster now on that model which is a bit disappointing.

Still, like I say, all about the observations now...

Looks like you were right about it all along.

Jim Gazebo · 29-12-2020 7:11pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Just looking at the latest ECM now and if anything this is pulled back more in to Munster now on that model which is a bit disappointing.

Still, like I say, all about the observations now...

Snow or rain?

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 7:31pm

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

Snow or rain?

Sleet and snow inland. Cork might even see some flakes but it's the northern edge where snow is most likely so Waterford, north Cork, Tipp, Limerick stretching back to Galway...

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 7:34pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Looks like you were right about it all along.

Aye but I had hope for Dublin

Still, as long as some see snow I'd be happy for them

Jim Gazebo · 29-12-2020 7:35pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sleet and snow inland. Cork might even see some flakes but it's the northern edge where snow is most likely so Waterford, north Cork, Tipp, Limerick stretching back to Galway...

Sound

Cluedo Monopoly · 29-12-2020 7:35pm

MetE seem to be suggesting east Munster and south Leinster will get the snow. Hopefully it will get colder in the west overnight.

lcasey90 · 29-12-2020 7:35pm

Will wexford see some snow?

Beechwoodspark · 29-12-2020 7:37pm

Lads n ladies

I use the UK met office app regularly and find it accurate

I notice that they have very little precipitation for ireland tonight and tomorrow morning.

Oneiric 3 · 29-12-2020 7:41pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Lads n ladies

I use the UK met office app regularly and find it accurate

I notice that they have very little precipitation for ireland tonight and tomorrow morning.

I use it too and it is usually pretty accurate, even for here. Has a few light snow flurries for me (south Connacht) tomorrow morn, but that's about it.

Rebelbrowser · 29-12-2020 7:41pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sleet and snow inland. Cork might even see some flakes but it's the northern edge where snow is most likely so Waterford, north Cork, Tipp, Limerick stretching back to Galway...

I'm quietly confident of Cork city's chances of a light covering as the system sinks south and off shore....

Oneiric 3 · 29-12-2020 7:44pm

Red pill or blue?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvDRfb60nwI

Oneiric 3 · 29-12-2020 7:58pm

Co. Kerry tomorrow:

180418161537-tateyama-kurobe-alpone-route-2018-a-1-01-large-169.jpg

munsterlegend · 29-12-2020 8:03pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I'm quietly confident of Cork city's chances of a light covering as the system sinks south and off shore....

I wouldn’t be to be honest at this stage unless changes overnight. Maybe very high ground in north cork but this seems to be downgrading run by run.

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2020 8:12pm

Only rain for Cork Airport, with a chance of sleet between 04-07 am tomorrow.
Slight chance of light snow at Belfast Aldergrove from 11 pm tonight.
Rubbitch.

CORK TAF EICK 291700Z 2918/3018 32014KT 9999 FEW015 SCT030
TEMPO 2918/2920 33016G26KT
BECMG 2923/3001 24008KT
BECMG 3003/3005 3000 -RA BR BKN005
PROB40 TEMPO 3004/3007 RASN
TEMPO 3005/3013 0500 FG BKN002
BECMG 3010/3012 02010KT
BECMG 3013/3015 35010KT 9999 NSW SCT007 BKN020
TEMPO 3015/3018 BKN007 PROB30 TEMPO 3015/3017 4000 BR=

(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE) TAF EGAA 291703Z 2918/3018 31008KT 9999 FEW014 SCT025
TEMPO 2918/2923 7000 -SHRASN SHRA SCT008 BKN014
PROB30 TEMPO 2918/2923 4000 SHRASN SCT004 BKN008
TEMPO 2923/3018 FEW002 BKN006
PROB30 TEMPO 2923/3018 1200 -SHSN SHRASN BKN001=

Pangea · 29-12-2020 8:12pm

Tops of cars and grass is white here in Donegal after a shower of hail there.

Goldfinch8 · 29-12-2020 8:26pm

Sleet shower just east of Castlebar now. A good few flakes in it but real borderline stuff as is often the case. Maybe a pointer to something more promising later on in the night.

Jim Gazebo · 29-12-2020 8:27pm

It's freezing out herein cork. Bitter

KingJeremy · 29-12-2020 8:44pm

East county Galway/Tipp border...Met app is showing heavy sleet for a time tomorrow morn...hoping it thickens up to snow but even the sleet is great for now, usually seems to be February before we see a snifter of anything snow like

Donegal Ken · 29-12-2020 9:53pm

Risk of snow showers and some small accumulations across north Connacht and Ulster Wednesday morning with sea streamers moving in.

Rebelbrowser · 29-12-2020 9:58pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

East county Galway/Tipp border...Met app is showing heavy sleet for a time tomorrow morn...hoping it thickens up to snow but even the sleet is great for now, usually seems to be February before we see a snifter of anything snow like

Just one optimistic observation about this event.

Every year we have 3 or 4 threads dedicated to rain systems moving west to east that are hitting colder air and might turn to snow for some. But usually the most Met E say in their forecast is that such systems may fall as sleet or snow for a time, especially over higher ground.

This time we actually have a yellow warning from Met E. Thats not usually the case. So straight off that gives this system a much more realistic chance of generating snow, and not just over high ground.

In terms then of posts like the above noting, correctly, that the Met E app is only showing sleet for a particular location, remember again that this is a computer generated forecast for that location. The yellow warning however has of course been created by a human forecaster who is adding his/her expertise and experience to what the models are telling him/her. And the yellow warning is expressly for "...Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels..." and has been given for 13 named counties (in the Republic). So Met E do see a real, tangible, chance of low level snow in those 13 counties.

Now the Met E warning is only for a "risk", so its a long way from being a guarantee or anything like that, and since it issued there have been perceived "downgrades" on some of the models, but, still, I think there is a lot more sunbstance to this event than some of the non events we have agonised over (and through) down through the years.

Its still only a 30% shot for most places in all likelihood (maybe 60% for somewhere like Carrig on Suir), but thats a shot I'm happy to follow closely over the next 12 hours.

Lastly I think you can largely forget the models from now, the radar will be the main analytic tool from now on...

bazlers · 29-12-2020 10:00pm

Ok guys. I did this competition a while back and I jinxed the whole winter. Never seen it as mild. Hopfully this time will have the opposite effect. Going by some of the models it will be epic and my 20ft drift prediction might be on the cards ; ) ( if only).

Anyhow this is my thinking...
Predict the minimum temperature that will be recorded this winter (this gives you 3pts)
Predict where this occurs ( must be a met eireann site and again this gives you 2 pts)
Predict a date this will occur 3pts)
Eg. -10.3__Mullingar__Jan23.
Closing date will be 31/12/20 at 23.59.

If someone has better idea about scoring or whatever please feel free but i would prefer a mod to make that change. Anyhow i think it mightbe interesting going forward to do this if models put fantasy into reality!

NMB · 29-12-2020 10:00pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just one optimistic observation about this event.

Every year we have 3 or 4 threads dedicated to rain systems moving west to east that are hitting colder air and might turn to snow for some. But usually the most Met E say in their forecast is that such systems may fall as sleet or snow for a time, especially over higher ground.

This time we actually have a yellow warning from Met E. Thats not usually the case. So straight off that gives this system a much more realistic chance of generating snow, and not just over high ground.

In terms then of posts like the above noting, correctly, that the Met E app is only showing sleet for a particular location, remember again that this is a computer generated forecast for that location. The yellow warning however has of course been created by a human forecaster who is adding his/her expertise and experience to what the models are telling him/her. And the yellow warning is expressly for "...Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels..." and has been given for 13 named counties (in the Republic). So Met E do see a real, tangible, chance of low level snow in those 13 counties.

Now the Met E warning is only for a "risk", so its a long way from being a guarantee or anything like that, and since it issued there have been perceived "downgrades" on some of the models, but, still, I think there is a lot more sunbstance to this event than some of the non events we have agonised over (and through) down through the years.

Its still only a 30% shot for most places in all likelihood (maybe 60% for somewhere like Carrig on Suir), but thats a shot I'm happy to follow closely over the next 12 hours.

Lastly I think you can largely forget the models from now, the radar will be the main analytic tool from now on...

Very well put. Thanks

KingJeremy · 29-12-2020 10:12pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just one optimistic observation about this event.

Every year we have 3 or 4 threads dedicated to rain systems moving west to east that are hitting colder air and might turn to snow for some. But usually the most Met E say in their forecast is that such systems may fall as sleet or snow for a time, especially over higher ground.

This time we actually have a yellow warning from Met E. Thats not usually the case. So straight off that gives this system a much more realistic chance of generating snow, and not just over high ground.

In terms then of posts like the above noting, correctly, that the Met E app is only showing sleet for a particular location, remember again that this is a computer generated forecast for that location. The yellow warning however has of course been created by a human forecaster who is adding his/her expertise and experience to what the models are telling him/her. And the yellow warning is expressly for "...Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels..." and has been given for 13 named counties (in the Republic). So Met E do see a real, tangible, chance of low level snow in those 13 counties.

Now the Met E warning is only for a "risk", so its a long way from being a guarantee or anything like that, and since it issued there have been perceived "downgrades" on some of the models, but, still, I think there is a lot more sunbstance to this event than some of the non events we have agonised over (and through) down through the years.

Its still only a 30% shot for most places in all likelihood (maybe 60% for somewhere like Carrig on Suir), but thats a shot I'm happy to follow closely over the next 12 hours.

Lastly I think you can largely forget the models from now, the radar will be the main analytic tool from now on...

And now it’s turned to rain on the Met App :-/ but your observations as outlined above, Rebel, gives me hope :-D

Rebelbrowser · 29-12-2020 10:26pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

And now it’s turned to rain on the Met App :-/ but your observations as outlined above, Rebel, gives me hope :-D

I won't pretend that's good news though. D'oh!

barney 20v · 29-12-2020 10:28pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just one optimistic observation about this event.

Every year we have 3 or 4 threads dedicated to rain systems moving west to east that are hitting colder air and might turn to snow for some. But usually the most Met E say in their forecast is that such systems may fall as sleet or snow for a time, especially over higher ground.

This time we actually have a yellow warning from Met E. Thats not usually the case. So straight off that gives this system a much more realistic chance of generating snow, and not just over high ground.

In terms then of posts like the above noting, correctly, that the Met E app is only showing sleet for a particular location, remember again that this is a computer generated forecast for that location. The yellow warning however has of course been created by a human forecaster who is adding his/her expertise and experience to what the models are telling him/her. And the yellow warning is expressly for "...Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels..." and has been given for 13 named counties (in the Republic). So Met E do see a real, tangible, chance of low level snow in those 13 counties.

Now the Met E warning is only for a "risk", so its a long way from being a guarantee or anything like that, and since it issued there have been perceived "downgrades" on some of the models, but, still, I think there is a lot more sunbstance to this event than some of the non events we have agonised over (and through) down through the years.

Its still only a 30% shot for most places in all likelihood (maybe 60% for somewhere like Carrig on Suir), but thats a shot I'm happy to follow closely over the next 12 hours.

Lastly I think you can largely forget the models from now, the radar will be the main analytic tool from now on...

I'm 150 mtrs above sea level on the foot of the blackstairs mountains here in wexford, I'm confident we'll see snow tomorrow morning.

daniel_t1409 · 29-12-2020 10:28pm

Once again, I am doubtful Wexford will get snow, especially if it's only a 30% shot.

mickger844posts · 29-12-2020 10:40pm

Met Eireann ramping a possbile snow event and Boards Weather playing it down. It really has been a strange year

Anyway having looked at latest charts i see a decent chance for mainly East Munster, South Leinster. Conditions marginal but arent they always.
Going forward nothing mild on the horizon so maybe more chances in the coming weeks.

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2020 11:00pm

Some lying snow reported at a few stations in England, mostly 200-300 m, but one lower one near Manchester (Rosethorne, 35 m amsl) has 2 cm.

Wet-bulbs are perfect throughout much of Ireland tonight but n'er a drop of precip to be had, of course.

snowstorm445 · 29-12-2020 11:05pm

Saw the bullish Met Éireann forecast for wintry stuff here in Cork and got quite excited, this thread brought things crashing down to earth again lol. Not looking good for the area around Cork city so, might be a nice treat for the South East though

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 11:10pm

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Saw the bullish Met Éireann forecast for wintry stuff here in Cork and got quite excited, this thread brought things crashing down to earth again lol. Not looking good for the area around Cork city so, might be a nice treat for the South East though

Just trying to cover both bases tbh.

Fact is it's nigh on impossible to call because of the margins either way.

Some will certainly get snow, question is how many?

The precip is coming on shore now in the southwest and shortly in to south Connaught.

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2020 11:24pm

Based on the UKMO's 06Z aviation chart.

lcasey90 · 29-12-2020 11:29pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Based on the UKMO's 06Z aviation chart.

Yellow area snow i presume?

munsterlegend · 29-12-2020 11:34pm

Seems the Arome model has this further north than originally thought. Nowcast at this stage anyway.

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2020 11:37pm

lcasey90 wrote: »

Yellow area snow i presume?

SHSN is moderate snow showers. It is valid for the unshaded area.

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2020 11:40pm

It could be north Corks night, good luck to all

KingJeremy · 29-12-2020 11:42pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I won't pretend that's good news though. D'oh!

...and now it doesn’t even say rain :-(
Aargh!!

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 11:44pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It could be north Corks night, good luck to all

They are definitely in with a chance

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2020 11:45pm

Airport warnings.

Moderate ground frost and weak air frost for Dublin, Casement and Knock, valid up to 1030 am tomorrow.

EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 292000/301030 FROST MOD GND AND FBL AIR FCST=
EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 292000/301030 FROST MOD GND AND FBL AIR FCST=
EIKN AD WRNG 02 VALID 291900/301030 FROST MOD GND AND FBL AIR FCST=

Weak ground frost and weak air frost for Cork (up to 3 am) and Shannon (up to 1 am)

EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 292000/300300 FROST FBL GND AND FBL AIR FCST=
EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 291900/300100 FROST FBL GND AND FBL AIR FCST=

Cluedo Monopoly · 29-12-2020 11:48pm

Can someone please post the link to the radar that shows weather type.

JCX BXC · 29-12-2020 11:50pm

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Can someone please post the link to the radar that shows weather type.

It's the 'Netweather' weather radar. Google netweather.

Donegal Ken · 29-12-2020 11:53pm

Snowing now on the N15 road between Barnesmore and Ballybofey at Lough Mourne, Donegal. Recent road cam image attached

Weds 30th early hours + morning: Munster/south Leinster snow and ice

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