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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #2972
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,500 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    18z GFS is an upgrade for prolonging the cold much in the same way as the ECM

    gfs-0-120.png?18

    The high pressure over Scandinavia is becoming more of a feature at this point with each passing run just enough to slow progress. Be interesting to see how this ends up in future runs.


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    #2973
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,500 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    This is one of those charts where you think by this time tomorrow will the Atlantic be making it through at all given the trend...

    gfs-0-150.png?18

    Opportunities yet for this cold spell to be extended further. :cool:


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    #2974
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Still no mention of snow risk along the South coast by Met Eireann this evening. Just East and North.
    Will it be a flawed forecast, I guess we just have to wait and see..But with winds southeast at times and -10 uppers there's a fair risk imo

    Tues looking good for south...

    544740AD-6157-4718-BE87-8C59C6896B8A.png.b181d44199c8ababfb4ee8b844ba9c7a.png


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    #2975
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,733 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    my confidence in the mild spell from next weekend is starting to look rather shakey.

    GFSOPEU18_264_1.png

    Could the mild spell be completely destroyed by Monday/Tuesday I wonder.

    Winds going back into the east from Wednesday week.


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    #2976
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Still no mention of snow risk along the South coast by Met Eireann this evening. Just East and North.
    Will it be a flawed forecast, I guess we just have to wait and see..But with winds southeast at times and -10 uppers there's a fair risk imo

    I agree JS. No idea if it will work out but right now on the basis of the charts it is bizarre not to be mentioning the south coast for streamers. The latest ECM and GFS have -9 and -10s from south of Wales to the Cork coast for 48 hours from Monday evening and concensus is there may well be South Easterlies or Easterlies which would give us a 340km fetch at worst (or nearer 500km if SE wind) which means we could be inundated. Alternatively, wind might be north easterly in which case Wexford steals all of our snow (Wexford shadow?) but that looks unlikely to be the case throughout the spell. Thus you'd think ME would mention this risk.


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    #2977
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I just hope it does not end up in a situation whereby we miss out on a significant snow event and we are then under higher pressure. The NOAA charts suggest we will be under higher pressure, but hopefully it will eventually be in a position to move cold our way. I have to say this GFS run tonight was a surprise, especially after the UKMO update


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    #2978
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I just hope it does not end up in a situation whereby we miss out on a significant snow event and we are then under higher pressure. The NOAA charts suggest we will be under higher pressure, but hopefully it will eventually be in a position to move cold our way. I have to say this GFS run tonight was a surprise, especially after the UKMO update

    That’s a better alternative to mild, wind and rain.


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    #2979
    downburst
    Registered Users Posts: 203 ✭✭downburst


    Gonzo wrote: »
    my confidence in the mild spell from next weekend is starting to look rather shakey.

    GFSOPEU18_264_1.png

    Could the mild spell be completely destroyed by Monday/Tuesday I wonder.

    Winds going back into the east from Wednesday week.

    Very much in line with ECM weekly anomaly chart. High pressure to our north will at least allow us to dry out after this insane wet period.


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    #2980
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,733 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    If we could shift this high north by about 500 or 600km we would be in business.

    GFSOPEU18_306_1.png

    If this chart verifies expect chilly days and frosts. This dry spell would be most welcome.


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    #2981
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    Gonzo wrote: »
    my confidence in the mild spell from next weekend is starting to look rather shakey.

    GFSOPEU18_264_1.png

    Could the mild spell be completely destroyed by Monday/Tuesday I wonder.

    Winds going back into the east from Wednesday week.

    Such a scenario is in line with ME long range.


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    #2982
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Still no mention of snow risk along the South coast by Met Eireann this evening. Just East and North.
    Will it be a flawed forecast, I guess we just have to wait and see..But with winds southeast at times and -10 uppers there's a fair risk imo

    They only update the longer term forecast once in the morning until your in a timeframe of 2 days away. It will be changed Saturday morning.

    If they were to update on every model run that would cause alot of confusion. There's much uncertainty at this stage and there no point them putting the fine details in until there sure.


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    #2983
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Reversal wrote: »
    Such a scenario is in line with ME long range.

    Yes, it certainly is.

    Was talking to my relatives in NYC tonight and they're expecting another dump of snow on Sunday. I presume this low that's responsible for their event is our proverbial spanner in the works if she carries across the Atlantic for us.

    However, if this low spirals well north we could sit under a cold high ridge while that storm slams Iceland and rallies northeast into the arctic.

    If the jet can split in two and keep the med low, we could "ride the storm" into a lock and reload easterly once more.

    This is to play for at this moment in time I feel.


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    #2984
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    MET ÉIREANN UPDATE
    MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 05 FEBRUARY 2021
    Week 1 (Monday 08 February to Sunday 14 February)

    Low pressure to the south of Ireland with high pressure to the north will establish a mainly easterly airflow over the country for this period. This easterly airflow will bring a colder airmass from Scandinavia over Ireland, leading to below average temperatures for the week. The fresh or strong easterly winds will also bring an added wind-chill factor. Precipitation amounts will vary. Showery conditions will feed into northeastern, eastern and southern areas leading to slightly above average precipitation amounts there. The west and northwest will be more sheltered in the easterly flow, leading to slightly below average precipitation amounts there.

    With cold temperatures, wintry precipitation is likely. Showers over the eastern half of the country will fall as sleet and snow and there is potential for more widespread snowfall in the second half of the week. There will also be frost and ice at night, leading to hazardous conditions.


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    #2985
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,500 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Good UKMO this morning. Keeps the freeze until Thursday night. First tentative sign of undercutting?

    UW144-21.GIF?06-05


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    #2986
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    That’s a better alternative to mild, wind and rain.

    A better alternative is a significant snowfall followed by a cold surface high


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    #2987
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Think the GEM is the way forward and shows what Met Éireann are saying in monthly forecast, scandi high boom
    anim_lbm5.gif
    anim_urx0.gif


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    #2988
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I hope so Mount Vesuvius. Let's see if the ECM has the same script. A high of some sort is the form horse, it may lead to spring like conditions intially before a cold reload.


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    #2989
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,500 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I hope so Mount Vesuvius. Let's see if the ECM has the same script. A high of some sort is the form horse, it may lead to spring like conditions intially before a cold reload.

    You don't go to Russia, Russia comes to you :eek:

    gemnh-0-240.png?00

    gemnh-1-240.png?00


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    #2990
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    We might only be awaiting the APERITIF at the moment.
    Main meal could be Champagne, truffles and caviar.:D
    Come on ECM.


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    #2991
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,500 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    lol @ that temperature gradient in northern Mexico

    gemna-1-240.png?00


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    #2992
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I hope so Mount Vesuvius. Let's see if the ECM has the same script. A high of some sort is the form horse, it may lead to spring like conditions intially before a cold reload.

    Remember this?

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115890471&postcount=1021


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    #2993
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    lol @ that temperature gradient in northern Mexico

    Jesus Christ :eek: That's got to cause some incredible instability, right?


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    #2994
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,500 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    ECM extends cold air to Friday for most

    ECM0-144.GIF?06-12

    ECM1-144.GIF?06-12

    That Scandinavian high is exerting more and more influence with each run. Holding back the Atlantic horde.

    80805098.jpg

    I'm telling yeh the Atlantic won't break through in the end :P


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    #2995
    Tyrone212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Ecm snow accumulations at t120 are further reduced on this run. A dusting for some.

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/ireland/snow-depth-in/20210211-0000z.html

    The breakdown snow towards the end of next week projects 1 to 2 inches generally.

    Upgrades can happen, what's posted above isn't gospel but certainly is very underwhelming if we're to be honest.


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    #2996
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Although the cold hangs in for a little longer in ECM, the strong High pressure over the North Sea is going the wrong way in FI. Heading south into Europe is not what we want. Drags damp crappy westerlies over us and shunts the cold southeast over Greece, Balkans, Turkey.


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    #2997
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,888 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    All models showing a breakdown by end of week but they do take different routes. Amazing how the gem gets rolled out and becomes top model when others don't show what we want.
    3 good days of cold and snow streamers ahead with the East and South coast primed.
    I see Met Eireann stubbornly avoid any mention of the South again this morning when there is a clear ppn risk from Monday night on!
    The south coast has -10 uppers and an onshore wind means only one thing for me....
    We shall see though, they might be right...


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    #2998
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,500 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Humberto Salazar wrote: »
    Heading south into Europe is not what we want.

    You take it at face value when you should be looking at the trend. It's not there yet but it's getting there. Chill.


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    #2999
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    All models showing a breakdown by end of week but they do take different routes. Amazing how the gem gets rolled out and becomes top model when others don't show what we want.
    3 good days of cold and snow streamers ahead with the East and South coast primed.
    I see Met Eireann stubbornly avoid any mention of the South again this morning when there is a clear ppn risk from Monday night on!
    The south coast has -10 uppers and an onshore wind means only one thing for me....
    We shall see though, they might be right...

    Who said the GEM was top model in any of the posts this morning?


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    #3000
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    You take it at face value when you should be looking at the trend. It's not there yet but it's getting there. Chill.
    True, I qualified it by saying it was in FI. Subject to change I hope. A Bartlett high is my worst winter scenario.


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    #3001
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,888 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    Who said the GEM was top model in any of the posts this morning?

    Sorry ref NW


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