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Further Cold Spell In February? 0-180 Charts Only

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    #92
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM 144hrs - increasingly cold and wintry from the North.

    Recm1441.gif


    ...but the LP in the North Sea is slightly further East on this run compared to 00z so a drier run.


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    #93
    rc28
    Registered Users Posts: 2,246 ✭✭✭rc28


    darkman2 wrote: »
    ECM 144hrs - increasingly cold and wintry from the North.



    ...but the LP in the North Sea is slightly further East on this run compared to 00z so a drier run.

    Yep and by +168hrs there is -8c air heading south over the country. It is still 6/7 days away so hopefully this new trend continues in the model output. :)


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    #94
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    rc28 wrote: »
    Yep and by +168hrs there is -8c air heading south over the country. It is still 6/7 days away so hopefully this new trend continues in the model output. :)

    Yup a nice chart and its all about the trend, and for all thoese on here saying winter is over :rolleyes:

    ECM0-168.GIF?07-0


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    #95
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    All models now firming up on a cold dry outlook with the high ridging towards Greenland before settling back over us.
    Next week has a frosty look about it, as for snow I just don't see it!


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    #96
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECM has us in a brief northerly, high pressure dominated to the west, but a good synoptic to try and build on in the next few days.


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    #97
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Things are continuing as I thought they would. We have the strong poleward flow over Alaska, with the large NE Canadian trough retreating back westwards to allow the Azores high to build northwestards. They poleward flow towards Alaska looks like it may not build the Greenland high for long, though, and with zonality looking like increasing from eastern Asia to North America, some energy looks like setting up a progressive pattern again for much of the globe. The high to our west will probably be short-lived, with the NAO turing postitive again for the last decade of the month. So if we don't get something from next week's northerly (which seems increasingly like missing us to the east) then we could be looking at westerlies again for the rest of the month.


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    #98
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Well the ECM and GFS leave alot to be desired. UKMO on the other hand is a stunner exactly what we want to see and probably not a 36hr toppler either


    Rukm1441.gif

    Widespread heavy snow showers and embedded troughs in that flow no doubt.


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    #99
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    12z GFS is an improvement at 96hrs for cold prospects. More toward the 00z UKMO. Better amplification and height increases toward Greenland and more warm Atlantic air being pumped up the west side of GL.

    Not much point looking further ahead then this atm but this is reasonably good, an improvement in the depth and positioning of the trigger low pressure aswell (to the northeast of Iceland).

    Rtavn961.png


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    #100
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I thought the 12z UKMO would be a stunner and it is.

    UW144-21.GIF?08-17


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    #101
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I thought the 12z UKMO would be a stunner and it is.

    UW144-21.GIF?08-17

    UN144-21.GIF?08-17


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    #102
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Haven't seen many model runs this week but it just never seems to be a straight forward route whenever something potentially interesting is being progged :rolleyes:

    UKMO backing up its midnight run with another nice northerly, didn't see the 6Z GFS but the 12Z is along the same lines as the UKMO but further east. ECMWF miles away with the low centred as far east as Denmark. The 12Z will be interesting but it'd be too easy if it followed the rest, expecting another poor run before the inevitable downgrades elsewhere!


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    #103
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The GFS is moving toward the UKMO on the operational and ensembles. I'd expect the ECM to be broadly similar to the UKMO this evening tbh. But we'll see. We are not there yet.


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    #104
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    None of these northerlies particularly excite me if they end up being a toppler.


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    #105
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    darkman2 wrote: »
    The GFS is moving toward the UKMO on the operational and ensembles. I'd expect the ECM to be broadly similar to the UKMO this evening tbh. But we'll see. We are not there yet.
    Looks lovely.
    Almost similar to the end of nov 10.
    But it won't happen.
    The high will be over us or too near the west.

    Amsterdam airport might shut again with north sea streamers though.


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    #106
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    blackius wrote: »
    Looks lovely.
    Almost similar to the end of nov 10.
    But it won't happen.
    The high will be over us or too near the west.

    Amsterdam airport might shut again with north sea streamers though.


    I'm not saying it will happen. I'd keep an eye the next few days on the models though because there is an increasing chance it will happen. It may be for only 48hrs or it could be a longer cold period of weather. GFS, UKMO both going the right way. Let's see what the ECM shows later on.


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    #107
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,801 ✭✭✭Calibos


    This isn't great for the South Eastcoasters though is it? North eastern counties might see something before the streamers crossing Ulster run out of puff but those of us from Dublin down to Wexford would just get to gaze longingly out into the Irish sea as the streamers headed south past us 20 miles out to sea. Or have I got it wrong?


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    #108
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I'm not saying it will happen. I'd keep and eye the next few days on the models though because there is an increasing chance it will happen. It may be for only 48hrs or it could be a longer cold period of weather. GFS, UKMO both going the right way. Let's see what the ECM shows later on.
    yerrah,I know that :)
    Thats why I said it looks lovely.

    @calibos It would bring similar north easterly conditions to the end of november 10 so snow streamers reaching waterford eventually and certainly anywhere from Belfast to Wexford with a good chance for Dublin and wicklow east meath and kildare again with occassional snow sortey's from Donegal to sligo at times aswell.
    The isle of man shadow would be active also.

    But really,this winter has form now for high pressures to locate over or near us so don't hold your breath regarding the above happening.


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    #109
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    blackius wrote: »
    yerrah,I know that :)
    Thats why I said it looks lovely.

    @calibos It would bring similar north easterly conditions to the end of november 10 so snow streamers reaching waterford eventually and certainly anywhere from Belfast to Wexford with a good chance for Dublin and wicklow east meath and kildare again with occassional snow sortey's from Donegal to sligo at times aswell.
    The isle of man shadow would be active also.

    But really,this winter has form now for high pressures to locate over or near us so don't hold your breath regarding the above happening.

    It's not beyond possibility a Northeasterly could occur on the UKMO charts. But I don't think it's there yet and that could be just a 48hr toppler back to Atlantic conditions. Having said that obviously we don't see the UKMO beyond 144hrs which is why i'm eager to see the ECM. For a Northeasterly we need the trough to dig down Southwest ward. It's a big ask.

    Don't forget too in a Northerly flow there will be troughs and little features that would pep up precipitation which could bring more widespread snow showers or longer period of snow. UKMO charts are shown at a lower resolution so we can't see trough lines on those charts but 100% certain there would be in that flow shown.

    EDIT: 12z ECM not going for full retrogression of high pressure

    Recm1201.gif

    Given the GFS has moved toward the UKMO then you would have to fancy the UK Met take on things for the moment.


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    #110
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Poor ECM 12Z so far compared to the UKMO 12Z

    ECM1-120.GIF?08-0

    And here comes spring at 144hrs toppling all the way to Ireland

    ECM0-144.GIF?08-0


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    #111
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    18z brings the GFS a little closer to the UKMO outlook by deepening the trough in the North Sea and a slightly more generous height rise over Greenland

    Rtavn1261.png


    Rtavn1442.png


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    #112
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Following a quick look at the North Atlantic pressure charts this evening, I have a bad feeling that the following scenario will unfold - High Pressure will be centred right over Ireland next week which will mean that the arctic plunge of air will be reserved for the east coast of England and the already cold ravaged continent of Europe. Ireland will miss out again. So close but yet so far. Story of our winter eh? :)

    D


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    #113
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    I think the first half of Feb this year will be noted for its high daily mean sea level pressure values over Ireland if nothing else.. Apart from 2 hours on the 4th, we have been above 1020hPa since the 1st of Feb and over 1030hpa for much of that time. This trend looks like continuing for a good few days yet with high pressure zones hovering close to the country is some shape or form.


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    #114
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,979 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    darkman2 wrote: »
    18z brings the GFS a little closer to the UKMO outlook by deepening the trough in the North Sea and a slightly more generous height rise over Greenland

    Much better alright, -10 850s over the whole east coast by wednesday morning, would be nice.

    95osw1.png

    00zs will be interesting.


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    #115
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    baraca wrote: »

    00zs will be interesting.

    Mark my words, there will be upgrades in the morning;)


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    #116
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    darkman2 wrote: »
    baraca wrote: »

    00zs will be interesting.

    Mark my words, there will be upgrades in the morning;)

    Its the subsequent downgrades in the afternoon that concern me!


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    #117
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Mark my words, there will be upgrades in the morning;)

    I think after looking at this evening's runs, anything remotely different will be seen as an upgrade. As Birdnuts rightly said the other day, snorefest supreme.


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    #118
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Meh, I'd still expect it to mostly miss us to the east, maybe a glancing blow but nothing I'd bother getting excited about. Even a direct hit and its only a one or two day toppler

    ECMWF and GEM both have it well to the east, UKMO and GFS more favourable but a quick look at the GFS ensembles for Donegal show a 50/50 spread with the Op run at the cold end while the ensembles for the North Sea off East Anglia are in broad agreement on -10C upper temps so likely the bulk of anything interesting will slide down the North Sea.


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    #119
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I wouldn't be so pessimistic.:D


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    #120
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,979 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    00z is an upgrade, Too tired for charts !

    Night :)


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    #121
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    baraca wrote: »
    00z is an upgrade, Too tired for charts !

    Night :)

    A definite upgrade on the GFS 0Z run

    192055.jpg


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